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107.6-107.8 and 109-110KMorning folks, So, position taking stage is done, now let's take a look at targets. In general we have a sequence of a few targets, starting from 107.6-107.8, 109-110, 113 and 116K. But in current situation I would watch for only first two. Daily overbought is around 114, so 116K target seems too far. 113K is possible, but with rather extended downside action last week, it seems as very optimistic. That's why, more or less base case seems around 109-110K, while the easiest target is 107.6-107.8K. So, once the first target will be reached - think about partial profit booking, if you want to continue trading. Say, take off 30-40% and move stops to the breakeven on the rest.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
Weak bearish contextMorning folks, Not many changes since our last discussion. Yes BTC moved slightly lower, as we suggested, but you can see by yourself - action is very slow and lazy. Usually when bears control the market, action has to be stronger. It means that overall context remains bearish but it is weak and not very attractive for trading, although it is not forbidden of course. We consider upside breakout of 107-108K area as a vital moment for this context. While downside target is around 97-98K.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
98-101KMorning folks, Last time BTC was not able to provide the direction as it was standing in triangle and we prepared "neutral" update, waiting for triangle breakout. Now we see that this has happened to the downside and market just stands slightly above XOP target. So we consider 98-101K area as the nearest target. Second, once (and if) this action will be over - take look at H&S, and it could trigger stronger downside retracement. This it turn might be quite welcome for weekly reverse H&S pattern . That's being said, the first step that we're watching - is down to the potential neckline around 98-101K. Then we decided for to do next.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Minor advantage on the bullish sideMorning folks, So, downside AB-CD action is started as we suggested. But, it is very slow and going heavy. Appearing of triangle shape here and early signs of bullish dynamic pressure on daily chart turns the balance slightly on the bullish side. Still, we do not have yet any clear patterns that makes us sure. So, if you're conservative - it would be better to wait a bit. If you still want to buy inside the triangle - it would be better to place initial stop below OP target, just not to be washed out occasionally, if AB=CD will be completed. Because it doesn't break the bullish context but could give us "222' Buy instead.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
118.75KMorning folks, So, last time BTC was not able to show retracement that we've suggested. In fact by the end of the session, no reversal day was formed. It was some fake alarm. Our long-term 110K target has been completed, so monthly grabber has reached the minimum target. But for now we see nothing to do. We consider no shorts. Market stands confidently around the top, without sharp drop back, it is not at overbought or at some strong resistance, so it could keep going higher. Next our upside target is 118.75K. So we could keep existed longs, just don't forget to manage stops. If downside pullback still starts it might become good chance for long entry again. Market now is driven by rebalancing portfolios of big funds that have to sell US assets as they lost AAA rating. This explains why dollar is falling while yields are raising. This is not fast process and probably will last for some time more.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Deeper retracement is possible. 104-105.2 for short entryMorning folks, So, last setup worked just partially - action started from 101K as suggested but BTC completed only 1.27 butterfly target, showing sharp reversal. Current reversal is important because market is neither on some target, resistance or overbought. It means that reversal is driven by external factors. Although our long-term bullish view is still valid, with "at least" 110K target, the road to the target might be bumpy, with moderate pullback first. It means that right now weekly/daily traders should sit on the hands and wait when retracement will be over. While daily/intraday traders could consider short entry from 104-105.2K resistance area by our view.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
101K to 110KMorning folks, So, since Monday situation barely has changed. As we said - retracement should be small and we pointed 101K support area. 98K is also nice but it is a kind of vital area for this setup. Now you could see everything goes great. Market is moving out of 101K. Here is two shapes might be - immediate upside action by butterfly, or still, a bit deeper retracement in a way of "222" Buy. But anyway market has to stay above 98K to keep this scenario valid. So let's see. By far everything looks very accurate and predictable.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
110-111KMorning folks, So, everything goes with the plan and we still consider 110-111K area as the nearest target. At the same time this area agrees with weekly and daily overbought, so direct upside breakout hardly possible. Naturally, when the market is already near the target it doesn't show deep retracement. Thus, we suggest that either upward action continues right from flag shape or 101K support. 98K support area looks cool, but it is more for stop placement and invalidation level rather than for expecting of real retracement there.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
102.5K nearest upside target. 110K is the next oneMorning folks, So, the pullback to 88-89K area that we discussed last time has not happened. Market turns to direct upside continuation. Now it has no big barriers ahead, which means that 110K is the major target for now. On Intraday charts we have another one - 102.5K which is the nearest one. We consider no shorts by far. For long entry you could use any deep that you would like to. We suggest that 97.50-98K area is quite suitable for this. Deeper retracement will look suspicious.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 88.5-89KMorning folks, So, upside spike has happened and our 3-Drive + butterfly patterns are done. Although we haven't got continuation to 98K area that also was on a table. Now short-term sentiment has changed. Recent data shows that the Fed doesn't need to hurry up with rate cut, yields turns up, so BTC also could follow the common tendency with deeper retracement. This is the reason why we do not consider any longs today. As a nearest area that might be reached we consider 88.5-89K support. So, for bulls it is nothing to do. If you're intraday trader, you could consider bearish positions from predefined Fib levels on the picture. 3-Drive hasn't reached its target yet, so 92.5-93K area still could be reached...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
98+ actionMorning folks, So, market mostly stands at the same place where we leave it last time :) But now our monthly bullish pattern is officially confirmed, so mid term direction is up with 110K target at least and potential progress up to 127K. Now we see a lot of minor bullish signs pointing on upside breakout attempt. Last time we talked about 3-Drive, but today it seems that it could go out of its limits. Not just to 97K but up to 103 K AB-CD upside target. Until price is above 91.5K lows we do not consider any shorts. Following expected downside pullback is still on the table but not for this week probably. We return to it later as soon as upside action will be over.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
97K and 88KMorning folks, So picture almost has not changed since our last talk. Now we get great setup on monthly chart with upside potential starting from 110K and up to 127K. And our task now is to join this coming action. It would be great to get a pullback, but the shape of intraday market has changed slightly and it seems that BTC is forming 3-Drive "Sell" with target around 97K. Hopefully this pattern will trigger the pullback that we need. If it happens, then the next area that we will be watching is around 88-90K, which is nice support area . That's being said, our strategy for now is action to ~97-97.3K first and pullback to 88-90K second. I mark this update as "bullish" due to our first point, but you've got the idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
88.5KHappy Easter, So, our bullish trade is started well. But for now we wouldn't consider too extended targets. Based on AB=CD that we have on 4H chart , next extension is around 93K. But here is a tricky moment exists and it relates to the H&S shape and strong 87-89K daily resistance. The point is that the right arm is yet to be formed, and it could be started right around 88.5K 1H chart targets. That's why we're focused on just near standing targets. If Somehow, BTC will jump above 90K, then, the different scenario could appear. But for now we think it would be better to not take more risk and try to extract as much as good result from current positive position.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
BTC has upside chances until it holds above 81K areaMorning folks, So, picture barely has changes since our last discussion. Right now we do not see any ready-to-trade setups. But suggest some bullish support to the market. After major XOP target has been reached - BTC has not dropped but remains in tight consolidation. This is more a bullish sign. In general, we could suggest here a kind of reverse H&S shape. It makes us think that until BTC price is above ~ 81K area, it keeps chances on upside breakout. Drop below 81K will lead BTC back to the previous lows. So, if you would like to buy - try to do this as closer to the lows of consolidation as possible. We consider no shorts by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
87-88K seems natural targetMorning folks, So, our 80-85K trade was nice. Now we think that it is not time for big trades, mostly because many markets, and especially US bonds and dollar are overextended. That's why for a few sessions we're focused on near standing targets. BTC daily chart shows strong resistance around 87-89K area, which is also might be the neckline of potential reverse H&S. We already talked about this previously. It is the 2nd reason why it would be better to focus on something close. Thus, on 1H chart setup might be looking like you see on the chart. We hope that 83K support will hold. Otherwise, this trade has no sense, because stop placement below 81K support makes risk/reward ratio unattractive. Thus, supposedly 87-88K is an upside target. And we hope that BTC will stay above 83K.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
3
80K pullback is done, but it is not for selling anymoreMorning folks, So, the upside bounce to 80K resistance that we were watching is done now. It has happened even twice. D. Trump so efficiently tarrifying markets, and them provides them the relief that BTC mostly is just a hostage of this so called "news stream". Actually as well as all other markets. Once 90 day tariffs postpone has been provided, stocks jumped and liquidity returns, supporting all other things around. It might be temporal? Sure. But nobody knows what in the old Donny's head. By looking at current action, it seems that 80K support is more reasonable to use for long entry with 85.5 target at least. Definitely it would be better to not sell by far...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
Pullback to 80KMorning folks, So, our long-term bearish journey that we were following for 4-5 weeks comes to an end. BTC more or less hit our 74K target and strong weekly support area . The next one stands around 69K, but market strongly needs a new driving factor to break ~70K support area, and hardly this will happen this week. Taking in consideration that market is oversold, now we set a tactical target- pullback to 80K resistance area , and then we will see, should be sell again or not.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
86K for another short sellMorning folks, So, not occasionally we said in previous 2-3 updates that BTC action doesn't look bullish and we suggest a new nosedive. Now we have bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart . And consider these two Fib levels for another short entry attempt. Of course, 86K would be just perfect, but it could start earlier. One of the possible shapes we consider a downside butterfly. In general, re-test of 70-73K area on average fits to our long-term view. In a case if 86K will be broken, it could mean that market is tending to 93.5K target, based on daily AB=CD pattern . But we consider this scenario as less probable due on overall BTC heavy performance in a recent few weeks. Thus, for now, if you want to make a scalp long trade, you could try, but better to set initial target not higher than 86K. Our major scenario is bearish and we consider 84K and 86K Fib levels for accumulation of a bearish position, unless something extraordinary will happen. Profit to everybody, Peace.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
90-91K Short setup updateMorning folks, So, today we need just 1H chart as not many events happened. In a recent two weeks people start making upside revisions on BTC price, based on recent JPow comments on QT contraction. We agree that it has some reasons and supportive to BTC, but they forget that GDP forecast was cut, while inflation increased, which points on stagflation signs. This is the reason why we do not want to overestimate the positive effect of QT contraction. We still think that BTC could show the pullback to ~70K area. Now we have three different patterns that point on this level. Since our last update we've got the flag consolidation, that suggests upside continuation. AB-CD based pattern also point on 90-91K area. So, we still keep our idea to consider shorts around 90-91K area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten