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EURJPY Bulls in Trouble? Massive Rejection Signals📉 Full Multi-Factor Analysis – EUR/JPY 🔍 1. Price Action EUR/JPY strongly rejected the key supply zone between 164.80–165.50, aligned with a major static resistance. Last week's breakout was invalidated by a clear bull trap, followed by a bearish engulfing candle. Price broke below the ascending channel drawn since April and is now heading toward the 162.00 demand area. The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence, confirming a slowdown in momentum. ➡️ Technical Bias: Bearish toward 161.50–162.00, with a possible extension to 160.00. 💼 2. COT Data – Commitment of Traders EUR Futures (CME) Strong increase in commercial longs (+16,095) and non-commercial shorts (+4,830). Suggests smart money is accumulating while retail/speculators are pressing shorts — potential accumulation, but no breakout yet. JPY Futures Significant rise in non-commercial shorts (+10,575), while long positions declined. The yen remains pressured, but extreme positioning could fuel a reversal if sentiment flips. ➡️ COT Takeaway: Euro remains in bullish consolidation. Yen is heavily oversold — ripe for mean reversion. Caution warranted. 📊 3. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short from an average price of 160.46, while price now sits at 164.86. The crowd is deep in drawdown — a typical condition for short-term consolidations or fakeouts before reversals. ➡️ Implication: Price may hover around 164+ to trap remaining retail shorts before unwinding. 📈 4. Seasonality June seasonality for EUR/JPY is historically neutral to bearish. Only the 5-year data shows strength, while 15Y and 20Y trends reveal consistent downside starting mid-June. ➡️ Seasonal Outlook: Adds further weight to a bearish correction scenario for the second half of the month. ✅ Actionable Summary 📌 Weekly Bias: Bearish 📉 Main Target: 162.00–161.50 📉 Extended Target: 160.00 📈 Invalidation: Weekly close above 165.60 🧠 Final Thoughts All major elements — price action, COT, sentiment, and seasonality — point toward a corrective move on EUR/JPY. Given the strong underlying trend and retail’s positioning, watch out for bull traps before deeper downside. Best setup: Sell the pullback or wait for clean breakdown below 163.00.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
GBPNZD Ready to Flip? Key Reversal Zone in Play🔹 1. Price Action and Technical Structure Price is currently at 2.2405, declining from the recent high in the 2.26–2.28 area. The pair completed a descending channel with potential for reversal. A bullish reaction is taking place from the 2.2280–2.2170 demand zone, supported by previous volume spikes. The RSI is falling, nearing oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels. Possible technical scenarios: Bullish: Recovery toward 2.2560–2.2600, with a potential breakout above recent highs. Bearish: A break below 2.2170 could trigger further downside toward 2.2000 and 2.1800. 🔹 2. Seasonality (June) NZD June tends to be slightly positive for NZD (average: +0.0011 over 20 years), with consistent monthly patterns. GBP June is historically neutral to negative for GBP (average: +0.0015 over 20 years, but negative over 5 and 2 years). ➡️ This implies a seasonal edge for NZD over GBP. 🔹 3. Retail Sentiment 60% of retail traders are long on GBPNZD. 40% are short, but long positions average 2.1874, currently in profit. ➡️ This presents a mild contrarian bearish pressure, due to crowding on the long side. 🔹 4. Commitment of Traders (COT) – Institutional Positioning GBP (as of 2025-06-03) Commercials Net Long: +74.5K Non-Commercials Net Short: -11.3K Weekly changes: +30.3K longs vs. +32.6K shorts ➡️ Moderate balance, but growing speculative short interest. NZD (as of 2025-06-03) Non-Commercials Net Short: -23.6K Strong weekly increase in commercial longs (+6.4K) and total long flows ➡️ NZD is seeing renewed interest from commercial players — a potential bullish signal. 🔹 5. Trading Outlook 📌 Current Bias: Neutral with short-term bearish tilt, but medium-term bullish reversal risk rising. ➤ Potential setups: Conservative Long Entry: On bullish confirmation at 2.2170 (double bottom or bullish engulfing), target 2.2560–2.2600 Aggressive Short Entry: On pullback to 2.2490–2.2560, with stop above 2.2620, target 2.2280–2.2170 🎯 Seasonal and institutional factors favor NZD strength, but technical structure calls for caution and confirmation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
EURAUD: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the EURAUD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move up. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Long
by UnitedSignals
1
XPTUSD 1W:While Everyone Watches Gold, Platinum Quietly Wakes UpGold gets the headlines — but platinum just broke two years of silence with a clean, high-volume breakout from a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. And this isn’t noise — this is the structural shift traders wait for. Price has been coiled inside a compressing wedge since early 2022. Equal highs. Equal lows. Stop hunts both ways. The classic “shake out before take off.” Now? The breakout is in. And the weekly candle closed above resistance with volume confirmation. Oh, and while we're at it — the 50MA just crossed above the 200MA, signaling a long-term trend reversal. Target? Measure the triangle height: ~398 points. That projects a breakout target of 1440 USD, which aligns perfectly with previous institutional rejection zones. But this isn’t just about the chart. 🔹 South Africa, the top global supplier, is struggling with energy and production cuts; 🔹 The Fed is pausing rate hikes — the dollar weakens, metals rally; 🔹 Demand from hydrogen tech, clean energy, and industrial catalysts is on the rise. Translation? Smart money has been accumulating. The move from 965–1070 was just the ignition. The drive hasn’t started yet. So while everyone fights over gold highs, platinum sits at the base of a move no one's prepared for — except those who know how accumulation ends. 🧭 Key support: 965–985 📍 Resistance zone: 1150–1180 🎯 Measured target: 1440+
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by TotoshkaTrades
3