USDJPY 2H Analysis : Trendline Break or Double the Supply?🧠 Market Context:
The market has recently undergone a liquidity grab followed by a temporary bullish reaction, indicating that large players (institutions or market makers) are manipulating price around sensitive zones before committing to a direction.
🧱 Key Technical Zones & Observations:
🟩 1. Liquidity Filled Zone (Smart Money Move)
Location: Around July 17.
Explanation: Price dropped impulsively into a pre-marked liquidity pocket. This filled buy-side liquidity resting below previous lows.
Implication: Smart money has now captured trapped breakout sellers. Expectation of reversal or bullish mitigation.
🟧 2. Central Zone (Supply/Distribution Area)
This zone was tested multiple times, signaling it as a supply-rich region.
Acted as a base for previous strong bearish move.
If the trendline is broken, price may retest this Central Zone, potentially acting as resistance again.
🟩 3. QFL Formation (Quantity Following Line)
Nature: Base breakout with a fast snap-back indicates institutional demand.
The structure signals a failed breakdown or liquidation trap.
Actionable Insight: Strong bounce potential here, ideal for sniper long entries if market structure shifts bullish.
🟦 4. Trendline (Critical Validation Tool)
The descending trendline from July 18 has acted as dynamic resistance.
Multiple rejections validate its significance.
Main Conditional Setup hinges on this trendline:
Break = Bullish structure shift
No break = Trend continuation (retest of demand or breakdown)
🔁 5. Previous Reversal Completed
Price action has printed a reversal model (possibly Wyckoff-style accumulation or spring).
Completion of the pattern aligns with upcoming directional decision.
✅ Conditional Trade Scenarios:
🔺 Condition 1: Bullish Breakout Above Trendline
Setup: Price breaks and closes above the trendline with volume and momentum.
Action: Buy on retest of broken trendline or confirmation candle.
Targets:
Short-term: 147.50
Major: 148.00 – strong resistance/supply zone
Validation: Structure shift + momentum + rejection of prior supply.
🔻 Condition 2: Rejection from Trendline (Trendline Holds)
Setup: Price respects the trendline and fails to break.
Action: Short on bearish engulfing/rejection.
Plan: "Double the supply zone" as per your label.
Targets: 146.20 → 146.00 zone
This respects the previous price memory and liquidity void.
🧠 Deeper MMC Insight:
The market is in indecision phase, balancing between continuation and reversal.
Institutional footprints (QFL + liquidity fills + trendline rejections) suggest preparation for a trap-spring-accumulate or distribution-breakdown move.
Watch for fakeouts around the trendline – MMC logic says market makers often induce both directions before committing.
🧭 Trade Management Tips:
If long: Protect below the QFL base.
If short: Watch for manipulation around the Central Zone.
Wait for confirmation: Don’t pre-enter before structure validates direction.
Smartmoneyconcepts
GOLD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅GOLD is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 3450$
After trading in an uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 3414$
SHORT🔥
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AUD-JPY Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-JPY already made a
Bullish rebound from the
Strong horizontal support
Of 95.610 and as we are
Bullish biased we will be
Expecting a further bullish
Move up
Buy!
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XAUUSD Analysis : From Ellipse Demand to Reversal Zone – Target Hello traders!
Let’s decode today’s GOLD setup using the MMC (Mirror Market Concepts) strategy. This is a clean and textbook example of how institutional price delivery works – from demand creation to reversal zones. Let’s go step by step👇
🔵 Previous Ellipse Full Demand – The Accumulation Phase:
The market initially formed an Ellipse structure, which you’ve rightly marked as the Previous Full Demand Zone. This is where smart money started to accumulate long positions after pushing the market into a discounted area.
Price remained inside this ellipse zone for a while, showing slow and controlled price action with multiple rejections from the bottom. This type of price behavior is usually a trap zone, where retail traders are shaken out, and institutions silently build their positions.
💥 FMFR Zone – Where Momentum Begins:
On July 18, a clear FMFR (Fresh Money Flow Reversal) took place. This is the moment where price broke out of the ellipse demand zone with strength.
This FMFR marks the transition from accumulation to markup phase. It signals that the market makers have done their job in collecting liquidity and are now ready to drive price upward.
From this FMFR, the market respected a curved path — a classic MMC parabolic build-up, showing buyer dominance throughout.
📈 One-Time Delivery (OTD) – Clean Impulse:
Following the FMFR, price followed a One-Time Delivery (OTD) move. You’ve marked this beautifully with the vertical box showing the aggressive bullish impulse.
The candles are strong, consecutive, and with minimal pullbacks — a sign that the market is being delivered efficiently by the institutions toward their target.
🟩 Reversal Area – Target Reached:
Price has now entered the Reversal Area (Supply Zone), which was expected based on previous structure and imbalance. The market is reacting to this area already — giving signs of exhaustion.
From an MMC perspective, this is a potential “sell to buy” or “buy to sell” trap zone, where the market could either reverse completely or engineer liquidity before moving again.
⚖️ Central Zone – Balance Area:
Below the current price lies the Central Zone, which is a neutral area where the market may consolidate if it fails to hold higher or reject immediately. This area usually acts as a pause or buffer zone, often seen before the market decides the next leg (up or down).
🔄 Next Reversal Area – Demand Reload Zone:
If price drops, the Next Reversal Area marked below (around the 3,345–3,355 range) will be crucial. This is the zone where you should watch for:
Bullish rejections
FMFR signals
Trap candles (like liquidity wicks)
Expect this area to act as the next “Buy Program”, where institutions might step back in to reload longs.
🧠 Conclusion & Trader Mindset:
✅ Market respected MMC phases: Accumulation ➝ FMFR ➝ Delivery ➝ Reversal
🛑 Currently in a high-probability reaction zone – wait for confirmation before trading.
👁️ Watch how price behaves in the Reversal Area — rejection or continuation?
🔁 If market retraces, Next Reversal Area is your prime hunting zone for long setups.
🔔 Stay Patient – React, Don’t Predict.
Let the market reveal its next move. Whether it’s a pullback to reload longs or a deeper retracement, MMC logic will guide you to stay on the right side.
NZD_JPY RISING SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅NZD_JPY went down from
The resistance just as I predicted
In my previous analysis but now
The pair is approaching a rising
Support line from where we will
Be expecting a local bullish rebound
LONG🚀
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GBP_USD RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅GBP_USD has been growing recently
And the pair seems locally overbought
So as the pair is approaching
A horizontal resistance of 1.3520
Price decline is to be expected
SHORT🔥
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GBP_NZD LOCAL SHORT|
✅GBP_NZD made a retest of the
Local horizontal resistance level of 2.2580
And as you can see the pair is already
Making a local pullback from
The level which sends a clear
Bearish signal to us therefore
We will be expecting a
Further bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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AUD-CHF Risky Short From Falling Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-CHF is trading in a
Downtrend along the falling
Resistance line so we are
Bearish biased and after
The potential retest of the
Falling resistance we will
Be expecting a further
Bearish move down
Sell!
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CHF-JPY Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CHF-JPY keeps growing in
An uptrend and the pair is
Locally oversold so after the
Retest of the horizontal
Resistance of 186.000
From where we will be
Expecting a local bearish
Pullback on Monday
Sell!
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NZD_JPY PULLBACK EXPECTED|SHORT|
✅NZD_JPY has been growing recently
And the pair seems locally overbought
So as the pair has approached
A horizontal resistance of 88.900
Price fall is to be expected
SHORT🔥
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AUD_NZD GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅AUD_NZD fell down sharply
But a strong support level was hit at 1.0910
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target of 1.0930
LONG🚀
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EUR-NZD Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-NZD is making a local
Bearish correction while trading
In an uptrend along he rising
Support so after the pair hits
The support line a local bullish
Rebound is to be expected
Buy!
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NZD-JPY Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-JPY has hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 88.851
And we are already seeing
A bearish reaction so we will
Be expecting a local
Bearish move down
On Monday!
Sell!
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EUR_AUD WILL GROW|LONG|
✅EUR_AUD is trading in an uptrend
With the pair set to retest
The rising support line
From where I think the growth will continue
LONG🚀
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CAD-JPY Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CAD-JPY keeps trading in
An uptrend and there is a
Rising support below so
We are bullish biased
And we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
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CAD_JPY BULLISH BIAS|LONG|
✅CAD_JPY is trading along
The rising support
And as the pair will soon retest it
I am expecting the price to go up
To retest the supply levels
Above at 108.708
LONG🚀
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EUR-AUD Strong Uptrend! Buy!
Hello, Traders!
EUR-AUD is trading along
The rising support line in a
Strong uptrend so we we are
Bullish biased and as the pair
Is going down to retest the
Support we will be expecting
A rebound and a move up
Buy!
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USD-JPY Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY is trading in an
Uptrend along the rising
Support line and the pair
Already made a bullish
Rebound and is consolidating
In a local range so as we
Are bullish biased we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
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NZD-USD Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-USD already made a retest
Of the horizontal resistance
Of 0.5992 from where we
Are seeing a bearish reaction
And we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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AUD-NZD Rebound Expected! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-NZD is making a retest
Of the horizontal support
Level of 1.0909 and as the
Pair is trading in an uptrend
We will be expecting a
Local bullish rebound
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NZD_USD POTENTIAL SHORT|
✅NZD_USD is going up to retest
A horizontal resistance of 0.5990
Which makes me locally bearish biased
And I think that we will see a pullback
And a move down from the level
Towards the target below at 0.5947
SHORT🔥
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AUDJPY - POTENTIAL?USDJPY is getting super interesting.
If we can get some bearish intent to try and induce the early sellers to the downside creating some buyside liquidity then i will be all over this for a trade.
Lets see how price has moved by the morning as it does need a bit more development before we can consider entering for a short position
GOLD LONG FROM RISING SUPPORT|
✅GOLD is trading in an uptrend
And the bullish bias is confirmed
By the rebound we are seeing
After the price retested the support
So I think the growth will continue
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.