SMCI Earnings Setup: Big Miss Incoming? Put Flow Exploding
### 🧨 SMCI Earnings Setup: Big Miss Incoming? Put Flow Exploding 🚨
📆 **Earnings Date:** Aug 5, 2025 (After Market Close)
💣 **Sentiment:** **Moderate Bearish** — 72% conviction
💬 **Why?**: Weak margins, cash burn, heavy put activity, and bearish technicals.
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### 🔍 Quick Breakdown:
📉 **Fundamentals:**
* Profit margin only 5.34%
* Free cash flow: **–\$272M**
* Historical EPS beats? Just 50%
* Analyst consensus is turning **bearish**
🧾 **Options Flow:**
* Heavy \$58 & \$56 **Put Accumulation**
* Cautious positioning into earnings
* Skewed toward **defensive hedging**
📉 **Technicals:**
* Weak RSI (\~48), poor volume
* Price drifting with no conviction
* 🔑 Key Support: \$53.66
* 🔼 Resistance: \$60.00
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### 💼 Trade Setup: SMCI PUT ⚠️
* 📍 **Strike:** \$56.00
* 📆 **Expiry:** Aug 8, 2025
* 💵 **Entry Price:** \$2.23
* 🎯 **Profit Target:** \$6.69
* 🛑 **Stop Loss:** \$1.11
* 🧠 **Size:** 2% Portfolio
**Expected Move:** 10–15% ⚠️ (based on IV and past reactions)
**Exit Plan:** Take profits within 2 hours post-earnings to avoid IV crush!
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### 📈 TradingView Tags:
```
#SMCI #PutOptions #EarningsPlay #BearishSetup
#OptionsFlow #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrade #HighConviction
#NASDAQ #AIStocks #MarketVolatility #DarkPoolData
```
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### 💬 Hook for Comments:
> SMCI bulls better hope for a miracle… or this earnings could trigger a 15% flush. Are you hedged? 😬
