GBPUSD Nov 26, 2021Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Soybeans
Agriculture - SeasonalityBrief for Agriculture:
- Price inflation of commodities and tailwinds of seasonality will provide a bountiful harvest this year's end for agricultural commodities.
Focus points:
Coffee:
Oats:
Soybean:
Soymeal:
Cotton:
Most interested in Coffee and Oats, as they are showing strong trends entering into the bullish season, but eagerly awaiting Soybean and Soymeal reversals for a most opportune entry.
GLHF
- DPT
Soybeans minor support tradeQuick and dirty trade idea on soybeans. Nothing fancy by any stretch of the imagination.
Previous 11.85 support is being tested, maybe we can make a dollar or two based on a quick pivot to the upside. As a result, a very tight stop loss is in order, this trade has a very high reward / risk ratio. No time will be wasted, the market shall crash though support and we move on to other trades, or perhaps we can make a small profit.
Oat Milk vs Soy Milk in the Last Six MonthsOat milk has exploded onto the scene in the last six months. Oat milk does appear to be a superior product to both soy and almond milks for drinking, smoothies and alternative barista creamers. I believe the demand for oat milk and oat milk products is driving the rise of oat futures and the fall of soy.
CBOT:ZOZ2021
CBOT:ZSF2022
Continuous SoybeansWithout a S. American weather problem soybeans could struggle. Corn and wheat are doing the heavy lifting. I am neutral this market for now.
Soybean CrushSoy Crush: Crush demand remains very strong currently at 1.66. Strength in Crush margins can come on the backside of strong moves lower in beans. Currently crush is high due to strong demand for oil and a weaker bean market. If Bean oil holds elevated levels and Meal can find some strength, Soybeans should find a lift higher.
Soybeans: Price has retreated well off spring/summer highs. Finding support with higher crush margins
Soybean Meal: Over supply with the excess crush causing a retreat in price. Will lower price meal spur demand, or is Meal the first one lower with Beans and Oil to follow?
Soy Oil: Fundamentals in the domestic and world market driving the Oil market. Long term outlook remains elevated on Biofuel needs. A correction in the Oil market will drive the Crush market, and would eventually drive the Soybean Market lower.
**Watch the Soybean Oil market carefully. Also any negative action or talks out of Washington and the biofuels industry**
Soybeans US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes.
Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports….
COT:
Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users.
Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk….
Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins.
Funds are exiting their longs
**These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
Updated wave count on short soybeansI have updated my wave count on short soybeans. I am posting it as a new idea. Maybe I'm suppose to update the old?? IDK , new to this s**t.
South American weather is ideal for planting-this is not bullish soybeans. Crush margins are great in the USA keeping basis firm through harvest.
Continuous SoybeansFundamentally looking for soybeans to drift lower through fall and reaching the .618 level of the impulsive move higher that started last year. Since this is a continuation chart I am not married to that level but will be looking for signs of bottoming. The catalyst higher will come with Chinese buying and South American weather premium.
COMMODITIES - RICE ZR1 - Breakout ImminentLine of Least Resistance determined by Underlying Conditions in my Global Macro Campaign.
Price Action Behavior suggests short attack taking advantage of sellers at previous breakout, to accumulate for next wave... which is building up quickly.
I will know if my suspicions are correct at the median line.
US-China tensions will make the supply scarce, and NATO + allies' free trade agreements are under pressure due to pandemic handling. I speculate a global shift towards domestic production, if not military tensions... Nations will most certainly need to stockpile food!
Other Commodities of interest:
Coffee:
Wheat:
Soybeans:
Corn:
GLHF
- DPT
$FLWS: 1-800-Deflation?Recently we've watched FLWS and aggriculture names move in a correlated way during the waves of inflation experienced this year. Could this trend be growing tired?
let there be a LONG long!!! :Dit seems to be necessary break top resistance and then we would enter to position for 3-4 days :D
let see what will happen...
Soybean look for Long position Looking for Long position at price 12.850-12.876 with target 13.014 & 13.144 in extension.
TAYOR
The Commodities Index Looks Set to Go LowerThis index is breaking down after showing bearish divergence and having a false bullish breakout on the Daily and Weekly.
Based off this and the weakness we're seeing in the commodities themselves i expect the prices of Precious metals to begin a new downtrend in the coming weeks and for the price of Thongs such as Wheat and Soy to have a major decline.
I would also expect many Mining Companies to go down such as FCX and SA and for the Value of the US Dollar to rise.
Broadening Pattern in Soybean Futures with a Target of 1440Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. Soybean Futures is experiencing a broadening pattern in the respective timeframe. This pattern comes with increased volatility as the trendlines are expanding outward. It is projected that the commodity will rally towards 1440, around the sighting of a gap lower. An indicative stop loss is set at around 1325, a little below the support trend line.
Technical Indicators
There has been a bullish crossover on the short (25-MA) and medium (75-MA) fractal moving averages. Soybean futures are also above the respective MAs. The RSI is above the 50 level with the KST having a positive Crossover. These are all bullish indicators for the commodity.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1325 price level and a target of 1440. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 2.46.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Soybean futures.
Soybean Futures September 2021 ContractHey there. Just one question, do you see any buying pressure in the Volume Oscillator? No? Yeap me too, so we will strong on short. Price will make(finger cross) a reversal at the trendline and we will be exiting our position in the next resistance turn support.
P/S: My position was entered yesterday at 1412.6. The reason why I posted this is because some of my friend were saying that the price is currently bullish and already making a reversal. Some of them has close their position, I will stick to my plan, which I will exit at the next support area @ 1372. Option 2, I will exit if its break the trendline and has no mean to reverse down.
Good Luck
Week 29: ZSX2021 Market has not broken from the uptrend channelFor the whole week the market is still ranging within the uptrend channel.
However, as to date, we have seen a sign that the price is about to go down, we just have to wait for another final confirmation.
Overall I am bearish bias; when it is time to drop, it will go down to $12.80
SOYF Buy with short-term targetJust bought some Soy futures as it is bounced from the major support @1370 and the trendline. RSI pointing upwards and above 50% line therefore a good signal for continuation of the move. Soy just bounced from the daily pivot if you'll like to look at that as well. Target is around 1420 next big resistance where it can slow down, so I will close my position there and will see if the trend will continue. See you later!
Week 28: ZSX2021 Market is still in consolidationThis week update was a bit late because not much activity since the beginning of the week.
The price is still in consolidation mode, ranging tightly in up trend.
There is an opportunity to short, however the Risk Reward ratio is only around 1:1.3 which is not favorable.
We wait until the price breaks the channel and we can enter with smaller risk.
Week 27: ZSN2021 A quick short opportunity Last week the support level did not break (yellow zone) and resulted a huge jump.
Early this week we saw the sellers were back in the market, however they didn't have enough momentum to push the price lower.
Based on today's chart reading, $14.63 is a good area to sell.
Stop Loss will be at $14.83 and Take Profit is at $14.20
This will give us RRR = 2.17R
Bullish momentum is still strong, so this will be a quick trade.
Week 26: ZSN2021 Consolidation weekIf you are still holding your short position from last week, it is time to manually close it.
The price was stopped at $13.28 area where it formed "W" or mini double-bottom; does this mean a reversal to be bullish?
My upper limit is at $13.82, if the price breaks and close higher that $13.82, then YES, it is likely to be bullish.
However, if the price broke the yellow box / support level, then downtrend will continue.
Therefore, this week we just wait until it breaks, then we follow the market direction.
Week 25: ZSN2021 We are still on Shorting mode.Last week prices went down hard, I didn't anticipate to go down that fast. It broke the structure and the major trend is now a Down Trend.
There more opportunity to short the market until it reaches $12.93
Here is my trade this week:
Sell Limit at $14.37 area (you can short now too)
Stop Loss at $14.76
Take Profit at $12.93
Risk Reward Ratio = 3.68R
Good luck!
