Are We Replaying the Dot Com Era?I’m completely unbiased here - more so curious - but today’s S&P 500 setup looks eerily similar to the late 1990s. In 1996 and 1997, the index posted back-to-back gains of over 20%, just as 2023 and 2024 have done. Then, in 1998, we saw a sharp 20% pullback - much like the one we’ve had in April of 2025. If you overlay that late-’90s fractal on today’s chart, the trajectory points to an S&P 500 level near 8,200 by early 2027.
The bullish case practically writes itself: strong GDP growth, resilient corporate earnings, AI-driven productivity gains, a still-accommodative liquidity backdrop, and investors willing to pay up for growth narratives—just as they did in the dot-com era. The “there is no alternative” (TINA) mentality toward equities was alive then, and it’s alive now. If the trend holds, the next couple of years could deliver staggering upside.
That said, it’s purely an observation - not a prediction. A decisive break below the key rising support trendlines would negate this bullish scenario and shift me to a cautious or neutral stance. Until then, the pattern is worth keeping an eye on.
