Bullish Intraday Patterns Everywhere!SPX had a wonderful intraday hourly chart confirmed breakout. This pattern is bullish and likely will continue higher.
The bulls tomorrow would love to confirm the daily chart breakout and will try to push for that.
SPY/SPX is holding more relative strength than the Q's & IWM which is displaying broad participation.
There are many bullish charts showing accumulation, golden crosses and bullish MA crossovers.
The DXY appears to be wanting to break down to around $97.00 which should yield more upside.
We secured profits today on SPY 594 calls & NVDA 144 calls.
We still remain net long and see the S&P 500 over $6000
Apple, XYZ, AI - are bullish setups were continuing to manage.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
S&P500 Giant Inverse Head and Shoulders waiting for its breakoutThe S&P500 index (SPX) appears to be forming the Right Shoulder of a long-term Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), the pattern that made the April 07 bottom of the Tariff War correction.
Currently supported by both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), once the overhead Resistance/ neckline breaks, we expect a +24.55% rise to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, the equivalent of the rise it made from the April bottom up until now.
The target given is 7400.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
06/02/25 Trade Journal, and Where is the Stock Market going tomo**EOD accountability report: +1176**
Sleep: 6 hours , Overall health: Health is getting better as I am getting a bit more rest, but can't seem to push past 6 hours of sleep. Might attempt to sleep earlier as i am usually heading to be around 1-2 am and waking up around 9. Also learned that I have pretty high cholesterol last week, so I plan to start implementing fiber pills into my night stack as it is essential to flooding out cholesterol.
**Should I release my daily supplement stack?**
What was my initial plan?
Bullish going into the market as we went over $5900, and looking for BTD at MOB, Flipped Bearish as we lost MOB.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
— 10:00 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 11:26 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal
— 2:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal
Next day plan--> Above 5900 = Bullish, Under 5880 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Testing Resistance Trendline - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price is currently testing a resistance trendline above ($593 to $595 price levels).
SPY price in the medium-term has been uptrending since April and May 2025.
SPY price in the short-term has been consolidating sideways, and a large volume breakout or breakdown has not occurred yet.
The 12EMA (blue line) has been holding as support for 5 trading days. Resistance targets to the upside would be $598 to $600.
The grey gap and the 26EMA (purple line) are downside support targets if a rally does not occur this month ($576 to $567).
Breaking news and tariff trade deals are supposed to occur in June and July 2025.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Persists
U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with new orders, backlogs, production, and employment all declining. Trade-war disruptions and elevated input costs continue to squeeze factory margins, setting the stage for today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release
🌐 Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Stocks
Renewed U.S.–China tariff threats sent the S&P 500 lower overnight, as investors fear higher costs for exporters and slower global growth. Futures pointed to another rough open for $SPY/ SP:SPX
📈 China Caixin PMI Exceeds Expectations
China’s May Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.8, signaling stabilization in export-oriented factories despite ongoing trade uncertainty. That positive surprise may offer some support to Asian equities today
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 3:
8:30 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Today’s survey will confirm if the May downturn persists.
10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending (April) Tracks monthly change in total construction outlays—an important gauge of housing and infrastructure investment trends.
1:00 PM ET – 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that influences the yield curve. Weak demand or higher yields here can pressure equities, especially growth-oriented sectors.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
BRIEFING Week #22 : Still waiting for OilHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
SPX500 (Daily) Elliot wave 4 underwaySPX appears to be printing a wave 4, potentially a triangle giving the proximity to the all the time high. Triangles are a motif wave ending pattern with a thrust up afterwards, typically a poke above the previous all time high before retracing trapping retail with FOMO.
Wave 2 is expected to retrace to the bottom of the triangle / wave 4 currently the high volume node support and .236 Fibonacci retracement at $5680
Safe trading
SPX: tariffs weekly tweet updateThe US Administration trade tariffs continue to bring confusion among market participants, but despite this, the S&P 500 managed to end May with a gain of 6,2%. The tariff-weekly-news included the announcement of the US President on social media that China “violated” current tariffs agreement. Although there were no further explanations, Bloomberg published information from an uncited source, that the US is planning to bring tariffs to China tech sector. At the same time, there was no official confirmation from the US Administration. The European Union is considering countermeasures on the US, after the announcement of the US Administration on an increase of tariffs on steel from 25% to 50%. All these ping-pong tariffs measures from the last period are causing some investors to slowly lose temper, with comments like “If you are an investor, you want to bet on good earnings, not good tweets about tariffs”, as Jay Hatfild from Infrastructure Capital Management told to CNBC. This brings some confidence that the markets will not make stronger moves on tweets, but only to actual moves of the US Administration in the coming period. Trading during May might provide some confidence also for the future period.
In line with investors, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment showed some relaxation with the final May data. The indicator ended the month at the level of 52,2 a bit better from estimated 51. The most important are inflation expectations which also eased a bit from previous release, in which sense five year inflation expectations are currently at 4,2%, and below market estimate of 4,6%.
The market confusion will most certainly continue also during June, but it seems at the lower volatility levels. More attention will be turned to macro data, and company earnings. The first trading week in June is bringing US jobs data, including the Non-farm payrolls, which might bring back some volatility on US equity markets.
Palantir Goes to Repeat Tycoon Buffett Early 1990s AchievementSomewhere in another Galaxy, in late December, 2024 (yet before The Second Coming of Trump), @TradingView asked at it awesome Giveaway: Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas.
1️⃣ What was your best trade this year?
2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025?
Here's what we answered:
1️⃣ What was your best trade this year?
- Surely Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR 💖
I followed Palantir all the year since January, 2024, from $16 per share, watch here .
Current result is 5X, to $80 per share.
Also I added more Palantir after SP500 Index inclusion in September 2024 watch here .
Current result is 2.6X, from $30 to $80 per share.
2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025?
- Once again, surely Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR 💖
It's gone 4 months or so... (Duh..? Ahaha.. 4 months, really? 😸😸😸)
Let see what's happened next at the main graph PLTR/SPX
First of all, let me explain in a few words what does this graph mean.
Rising (Blue) candle means Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR monthly return is better vs SPX
Falling (Red) candle means Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR monthly return is worse vs SPX
Conclusion
Palantir. The stock that outperformed S&P 500 Index, 11 consecutive months in a row.
Palantir. The stock that printed 11x since inception. 5.5x over the past twelve month and 1.5x in the year 2025 (the best one result so far over the all S&P 500 Index components).
Palantir. The stock that goes to repeat Tycoon Buffett achievement early 1990s (in 1992-93 Berkshire Hathway outperformed S&P 500 Index for a straight TWELVE MONTHS.
Palantir. Were we right with this stock on contest and won it? Exactly! Even though our prize has been toadly strangled. 🤭
--
Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
S&P500 finishing re-accumulation and sets eyes on 6230.The S&P500 / SPX has turned sideways after an impressive recovery from April's lows.
The 1day MA50 provides the same kind of support as it did after the October 2023 rebound.
The RSI pattern on both sequences is also similar and it suggests that the price is at the point where it breaks upwards to the Rising Resistance.
Target 6230.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
UNH: Why I Believe This Is a Dead Cat Bounce(Late posting)We’ve seen a quite the abounce in the market as of lately, but I believe it’s not a real recovery. To me, this looks like a classic dead cat bounce; a quick move up that happens during a downtrend before prices drop again. I’ll explain why I think this is the case, kind of a simple one.
First of all, the grand picture in the economy still looks fairly negative, especially respecting the TRUMP TARIFF new. Inflation hasn’t fully gone away, interest rates are still high, and consumer confidence is weak. There’s no major change in the news or the fundamentals that would support a strong comeback. It feels like people are just hoping things will improve, but the facts don’t really support that yet.
Second, the volume on this bounce has been low. In trading, volume tells you how strong a move is. If the price goes up but not many people are trading, it usually means there’s not much real buying happening. This bounce seems to be driven more by short sellers covering their positions, not by confident investors jumping in.
Third, we’re hitting key resistance levels—areas where the price dropped before—and we’re starting to see signs of rejection again. These levels are often hard to break through unless the market has strong momentum, and right now it doesn’t look like that’s the case.
Fourth, if you look at indicators like the RSI and MACD, they show that the price is already overbought. That means the recent move up may have gone too far, too fast. These kinds of readings usually lead to a pullback, especially when the bigger trend is still down.
Finally, the overall structure of the chart hasn’t changed. We’re still making lower highs and lower lows, which is what a downtrend looks like. Just because we’ve had a few green candles doesn’t mean the trend has reversed. Until we see the market start building a base and making new highs with strong support, I don’t think this bounce will last.
I n my opinion, this is one of those moments where people might get too excited too quickly. A lot of traders jump in thinking the bottom is in, only to get caught when the price turns back down. That’s why I’m staying cautious and watching for signs that the bounce is
failing.
I could be wrong, but right now, this feels more like a trap than a turning point.
SPX - June ProjectionsMay showed price heading back up to the high. This is four months now from the previous top. Generally for a major top to exhibit itself, it might take only three months to test. Four months is also not uncommon so it is possible that today's close will be last positive monthly close in a while.
I expect that the price will continue to rise, probably above the 6010 level of the last monthly closing high. If price surpasses the previous monthly close high, I will be watching for a turnaround, with prices eventually closing out June to the downside.
To me, based on the 40-month moving average. I have noticed that usually waves 2 and 4 have strong support at the 40 month moving average, where more major corrections will see price go below it. As price just came down to that level and didn't break it, we are in or have finished a wave 4. I'm still looking for lower prices assuming that this wave 4 to be a Flat with more sideways action ahead.
Currently short SP
SPY, SPX, IWM, Natural Gas, NVDA, XYZ, AI - Analysis- Markets sold off into the NVDA rally this morning.
- Small afternoon rally turned indices back green
- Major pre market high levels up ahead likely allow us to push higher in coming days.
- NVDA should retest its premarket high levels.
- Profits secured on AI calls!
- Structurally indices are still bullish and remain above key levels.
- Yields see nasty reversal lower and look to be going down.
- Natural Gas trying to lure investors with a bottoming tail - but i think its false hope.
Tracking a pattern that could signal the Top is In I am tracking a micro pattern with the new local high made in the ES last night and today's price action as a micro 5-down....we should get a slight retrace into the 5960 ish area. Maybe tomorrow...maybe in the overnight session tonight.
If price can then breach todays micro low of 5884 in the ES futures...we need to then follow through with a breach of 5857 to give us our first indication, we may have struck a top.
From there I am following 2 counts...Purple, or my primary count which is a minor C of Intermediate (A).
Best to all,
Chris
S&P500: Inverse Head and Shoulders set to extend Apr-May rally.The S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.868, MACD = 85.480, ADX = 31.901) as it maintains a steady Channel Up pattern and just formed the first 1H Golden Cross in a month. Technically this is forming the Right Shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, typically a bullish reversal formation, which not surprisingly was last seen in April when the Channel Up started and was completed with the previous 1H Golden Cross on April 24th. The result was a bullish extension fo rht 1.618 Fibonacci level. We're bullish on this, TP = 6,150.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
US500 - Will the stock market reach ATH?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect the index to continue moving, and on the other hand, if the index declines towards a certain zone, you can also look for the next S&P long positions with a risk-reward ratio.
Yesterday, a U.S. federal court halted the implementation of President Trump’s “Freedom Day” tariffs. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that these tariffs exceeded the legal authority granted to the president and unanimously decided to revoke them. Nonetheless, Trump still retains the right to appeal the ruling.
Following the court’s decision, President Trump promptly filed an appeal. In response, the White House issued a statement asserting, “The decision on how to handle a national emergency should not fall into the hands of unelected judges.”
Meanwhile, the market reacted strongly to Nvidia’s latest financial report. The company’s stock surged by as much as 5.8% in after-hours trading, before settling at a 4.8% gain compared to the previous day.
This bullish movement reflects investors’ confidence in Nvidia’s continued strong performance.
Nvidia is actively expanding into new markets, including the Middle East—an indication that the company is poised for sustained growth even if its presence in China is constrained.
The rally in Nvidia’s stock didn’t just lift semiconductor companies; broader markets followed suit. The S&P 500 index climbed to 6,005.75 points, representing a 1.7% increase from the prior session.
According to the company’s announcement, Nvidia posted $44.1 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, marking a 69% increase year-over-year and slightly surpassing analysts’ expectations. Revenue from data center operations rose 73% to reach $39.1 billion.
CEO Jensen Huang stated: “Our Blackwell NVL72 AI supercomputer—designed for reasoning and acting as a ‘thinking machine’—is now being mass-produced by system builders and cloud service providers.” He added, “There is enormous global demand for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure. Over the past year alone, AI inference token generation has grown tenfold. As AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI compute will continue to surge.”
A Reuters poll now projects that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 by the end of 2025—down from the 6,500 level forecast in February. Similarly, the Dow Jones index is expected to close 2025 at 43,708, compared to the previous projection of 47,024 from the February survey.
Separately, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported that the increase in U.S. bank profits was largely driven by growth in noninterest income. Bank earnings in the first quarter of 2025 rose by 5.8%, reaching $70.6 billion. While overall asset quality remains favorable, the commercial real estate loan portfolios continue to show signs of weakness. The number of “problem banks” declined by three, bringing the total down to 63. The banking industry also reported a slowdown in lending growth; the annual loan growth rate for the first quarter was just 3%, down from the pre-pandemic average of 4.9%.
SHORT The S&P 500 Index: Not A Bear Market, Just A CorrectionWe are about to witness an inception of bearish action. A correction within a correction.
After 7-April, the Cryptocurrency market started to recover, but the main Altcoins that were growing were all memecoins, and I wondered, "Why are mainly memecoins growing?" I know that when memecoins grow the market is actually bearish on the bigger picture. I shrugged it off and went LONG.
It seems I have an explanation now, this recovery was only a partial recovery or, we are just in front of a classic retrace, a small correction. This means that regardless of how fast and strong it goes the end will result in a higher low, compared to 7-April. This means that the bullish structure will remain intact, but you can't change the fact that strength is not present on this chart.
The SPX is going down next. There two main support levels to consider, you decide which one is the one that you should take. My job is to alert you of the event before it happens, great timing and entry prices, you can take care of the rest.
Thank you for reading.
This is a friendly reminder.
Market conditions can always change.
Namaste.
SPX Bullish Patterns Emerging ahead of NVIDIA EarningsThe SP:SPX has taken out some major pivots and recaptured the ever so important daily 200 MA.
across multiple time frames some very interesting bullish patterns are emerging.
All eyes will be in NASDAQ:NVDA earnings tonight after the bell.
If NVIDIA beats and guides it will breakout of an epic bull flag pattern that will likely casue this market to trend to new All time highs.
Probabilities from a technical pattern standpoint are pointing towards higher price action.
We have already broken out and back tested key support levels and the buying is clearly being observed.
We remain net long with positions already in profit.
S&P500 6300 is the minimum short-term Target right now.The S&P500 index (SPX) is extending Friday's rebound on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) following an impressive rally after the April 07 bottom. That is technically the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
This quick consolidation technically resembles all 4 short-term pull-backs (blue circles) that took place since April 2023. The minimum % rise on those before they pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again was +10%.
As a result, we expect 6300 to be the minimum Target by the end of July, which of course will be an All Time High.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bounced Above Gap Support Zone - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $576 price support gap level.
EMA Golden Cross is still active, the yellow 50EMA crossed above the red 200EMA which could signal a longer term bullish rally.
SPY price has been in an uptrend since May 2025.
Resistance Levels: $594, $596, $600, $607, $613.
Support Levels: $581, $575, $572, $567, $564.
Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, presidential and government law changes, inflation data, economic data, and consumer sentiment can all affect Stock and ETF prices.
SPX AND WHAT WE STAND TO GAIN OR LOSE!⚡ Hey hey, hope all is well. Don't have too much time right now so just want to get a quick idea out, we'll keep this short and concise, thank you.
⚡ First thing's first, we're gonna take a quick Big picture look at our SP:SPX chart for today and we can take a look back on our ascending channel which helped propel us for most of 2024 into 2025 before we finally exited that channel in February and lost our 200 EMA.
⚡ The 200 EMA was our main tool for the last year or so, keeping above that gave traders and investors the confidence to keep things pushing and essentially kept the market on this wave which is simply rode up, everyone was making money and that money was going back into more investments further propelling things before we saw our SP:SPX hit an all time high in February at $6,200.
⚡ So we had the 200 EMA below us, we had much of the market making money, and with trump entering office, much of the market was understandably optimistic and things we're continuing pretty strong January through into February. We then had trump make his remarks on a possible recession and we started getting talks on tariffs which understandably prompted much of the market and market makers to take profits and we sort of got this reversal which I spoke more on in a previous idea which I'll link below for reference:
⚡ Before I continue and as a disclosure, none of this is meant to be taken in a political stance or with any bias, like I said, we're simply looking at the facts and the technical, that's all that matters.
⚡ To continue on, as the referenced idea represents, once that news hit the market sentiment shifted and we can see the descending channel that ensued with that which also prompted us to lose our 200 EMA, something we haven't seen happen since 2023 on the daily chart which puts us in a precarious position.
⚡ The market's basically lost two advantages. The last year or so that 200 EMA kept below the chart never converging which helped bulls alongside our ascending channel which was a significant component in this push for the all-time-high (ATH). So we 've basically lost both of those advantages which is what helped bulls climb so much ground the last year or so.
⚡ We already know the 200 EMA crossover is important but now it'll likely create a broader impact now that we have no channel to look. Instead, we'll likely see a number of traders more than likely looking out for those Bullish and Bearish crossover's for making plays which is already happening.
⚡ If we look at the beginning of April for example where we had that first 200 EMA crossover we can see just how dramatic the sell-off was, investors just weren't sure how far things we're going to go and once we got another crossover and regained that 200 EMA the buy-in action, volume was also dramatic signifying a market that's being led by sentiment rather than technical which again was the main driver for us the last year or so.
⚡ That being said technical of course is still playing a role, but we're seeing sentiment drive price action and being taken into account a lot more the last few weeks, especially with everything going on with Trump and the tariff war we had which put much of the market and investors on edge trying to figure out whether or not things we're looking optimistic or not for the market before China and the US we're able to ultimately come to an agreement helping put many minds at ease.
⚡ Next few weeks I'll be watching that 200 EMA to see if we get a bearish crossover or if we can avoid that and regain ground to which I'll be looking to my Fib. chart for as referenced below:
⚡ Next is a descending channel I've added to the daily chart which hopefully doesn't come into play again.
⚡ Can already see how that descending channel impacted us the second tiem around in April so main thing is that we avoid losing that 200 EMA again, and we keep away from that descending channel else we'll more than likely get dragged down further if we we're to reenter that channel much like we saw happen with the sell-off in April.
⚡ Have to run but just wanted to give quick technical look at our big picture idea here for the $SP:SPX. Current goal is to see a retest of $5,900 and avoid another convergence with that 200 EMA on the daily else we risk losing our footing and reversing.
⚡ As always, thanks so much for all the support, appreciate you all and wishing all the best till next. Don't just make it a good day, make it a great one.
Best regards,
~ Rock'
SPY Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-25SPY Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-25)
Model Summaries
Grok/xAI Report
Technicals: SPY at $579.11, below short-term EMAs (10/50 on 5-min), above 200-period EMA, RSI oversold on 5-min, MACD bearish. Daily chart neutral to slightly bearish. Sentiment: Rising VIX (22.29), max pain at $580. Trade: Buy 2025-05-30 577 put at $5.12, profit target ~3-point move, 20% stop loss, confidence 65%.
Claude/Anthropic Report
Technicals: 5-min and daily charts bearish but RSI oversold intraday. Volume selling peaked. Sentiment: Max pain $580, heavy OI at 575/570 puts, futures up. Trade: Buy 2025-05-30 581 calls at ~$4.91, profit targets 25–50%, 30% stop loss, confidence 65%.
Llama/Meta Report
Technicals: Moderately bearish on 5-min EMAs and MACD, daily neutral. Sentiment: Elevated VIX, max pain at $580. Trade: Buy 2025-05-30 579 put at $5.95, 20% profit target, 10% stop loss, confidence 70%.
DeepSeek Report
Technicals: Mixed signals—5-min oversold vs. daily bearish. Sentiment: Stuck between support $576.86 and max pain $580. Trade: No recommendation (confidence 45%).
Gemini/Google Report
Technicals: Daily and 5-min bearish, price under key EMAs. Futures suggest gap up to $581–581.50. Sentiment: Rising VIX, max pain at $580. Trade: Fade the open—buy 2025-05-30 578 puts at ~$2.20, target $3.00, stop ~$1.60, confidence 65%. Agreement and Disagreement
Agreement
Short-term bearish bias: Most see SPY below intraday EMAs and bearish MACD. Elevated volatility: All cite VIX rising above 20 as a risk factor and opportunity. Max pain magnet: Models note $580 as a gravitational level.
Disagreement
Directional tilt: Claude is moderately bullish (buy calls), others lean bearish or neutral. Trade entry strike: Puts at 577, 578, 579 vs. calls at 581. Risk parameters: Profit targets and stop losses vary widely (10–50% of premium). Conclusion and Recommendation
Overall Market Direction Consensus: Moderately Bearish. SPY is below key short-term EMAs, MACD on multiple timeframes is negative, and although oversold conditions could spark a bounce, the preponderance of models favors downside.
Recommended Trade
Strategy: Buy a single-leg naked put Instrument: SPY weekly put expiring 2025-05-30 Strike: 577.00 (ask $5.12) Premium: $5.12 Entry Timing: At market open, assuming SPY does not gap significantly below $579 or above $581. Profit Target: 40% gain (premium ~$7.17) Stop Loss: 25% premium loss (premium ~$3.84) Size: 1 contract Confidence Level: 65%
Key Risks and Considerations
SPY could bounce strongly from oversold levels or pre-market futures strength, invalidating the bearish setup. Theta decay accelerates late in the week; monitor time decay. VIX spikes could amplify premium and widen bid-ask spreads.
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "SPY", "direction": "put", "strike": 577.0, "expiry": "2025-05-30", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 7.17, "stop_loss": 3.84, "size": 1, "entry_price": 5.12, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-25 21:27:17 UTC-04:00" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: SPY 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 577.00 💵 Entry Price: 5.12 🎯 Profit Target: 7.17 🛑 Stop Loss: 3.84 📅 Expiry: 2025-05-30 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-05-25 21:27:49 EDT
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.