SPX500 H4 | Bearish dropS&P500 has rejected off the sell entry at 6,407.74, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Stop is at 6,491.06, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 6,302.91, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Spx500short
SPX Weak Bearish Bias → 6440P Caution Trade
# 🏦 SPX Weekly Options Analysis – 8/18
📉 **Market Context**
* Mixed signals across metrics → weak bearish bias
* Price below VWAP → potential short-term downside
* Volume insufficient → low conviction
* Call/Put ratio neutral → no strong directional bias
---
## 🎯 Trade Setup (Cautious Put)
* **Instrument**: SPX
* **Direction**: PUT (SHORT)
* **Strike**: 6440
* **Expiry**: 2025-08-18
* **Entry Price**: \$0.60
* **Profit Target**: \$1.20
* **Stop Loss**: \$0.30
* **Size**: 1 contract
* **Confidence**: 60%
* **Entry Timing**: Market Close
---
## 📈 Breakeven @ Expiry
👉 6439.40 (Strike – Premium)
SPX must **close < 6439.40 by market close** to profit at expiry.
---
## 🧠 Key Risks
* Mixed signals → potential whipsaw ⚡
* Market structure unclear → downside not guaranteed
* Theta decay risk → short-term option, fast time decay
---
# ⚡ SPX 6440P SHORT PLAY ⚡
🎯 In: \$0.60 → Out: \$1.20
🛑 Stop: \$0.30
📅 Exp: 8/18
📈 Bias: Weak Bearish, trade cautiously 🐻
---
📊 **TRADE DETAILS JSON**
```json
{
"instrument": "SPX",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 6440.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-18",
"confidence": 0.60,
"profit_target": 1.20,
"stop_loss": 0.30,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.60,
"entry_timing": "close",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-18 15:02:25 UTC-04:00"
}
$SPY rolling over, potentially to new lows?While I was early to the idea (like usual), still don't think the thesis will be wrong. I still believe we're going to see a large move down from here.
Yesterday's price action made me pretty confident a top was in (TBD). We had positive news and the market couldn't rally on that positive news and we ended up closing at the lows -- indicating to me there's no more buyers.
Today we have treasuries, the dollar and volatility all rallying while equities selloff, a classic risk off signal. You also have crypto selling off too.
I think we see a large risk off move from here on out, the target is the $440 area (extreme down to $400), but if we find support at one of the other levels above that, there's potential for us to rally from there.
Will have to see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
SPY - On Our Way To Target 3 ...But First?Trading Fam,
It's been a while since I updated you all on the SPY, which, as you know, we track closely to help us determine the overall market trend. Since we have now exceeded my Target #2, it's time for me to give you all another update. But first, a little context for my new readers which I have been getting a lot of recently, thanks to my new indicator hitting it out of the park.
So, we began marking targets on our chart here after spotting an inverse H&S on the daily chart a few years ago. Many of my followers back then were doubtful the pattern would fully form, or if it did, that it would actually play out. But the pattern completed about 14 months ago and subsequently broke the neckline in June of last year. I then knew we were going full send and have been predicting a 700 SPY final target since. This target has been made utilizing both that inverse H&S pattern as well as a longer-trend Elliot Wave, which I don't have denoted here at this point. The chart gets too messy with all of my markings. Regardless, we are currently in wave 5 and heading steadily towards that 670-700 target #3, my final target.
But be careful! Today, we have hit the underside of that RED area, which is HUGE resistance. I would expect that we will NOT break straight through this without some pullback prior. Indeed, the market is overextended at this moment, and we'll need the volume to be able to push through. Could this occur? Of course, anything is possible. But, it is not likely right now.
My guess is that we'll at least pull back to one of those levels below us or possibly even re-touch that 200 SMA in red before the final push.
Anyways, it is worth taking note of what may be ahead of us in the next few weeks or months so that you can plan your trades accordingly. Stay with me. We're almost there.
✌️Stew
S&P500 (CASH500) (SPX500) SHORT - Head and shoulders 30minRisk/reward = 3.3
Entry price = 6314.8
Stop loss price = 6318.4
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 6301.3
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 6297.5
Waiting on validation from a few other variables.
For example, waiting for the current 30min candle to close in range.
Letssss goooooo
BEAR WITH ME... First of all, I'm getting into the field of other players and trying to call their type of shots.
I don't intend to come across as ignorant when it comes to this market, since I only trade gold and I have seen FOREX traders try to predict gold and get it completely wrong.
I have NO ARGUMENTS WHATSOEVER with which I could back this PREDICTION up; NOT PROJECTION...
As a matter of fact, Technically speaking , the " PROJECTION " would actually be BULLISH , because price is entering a "discovery" phase, In which there is no previous high to "top" a potential impulse with.
When price is making ATH, YOU CAN'T CALL THE TOP UNTIL THE TOP IS FORMED.
That being said, I only want to have this on my profile for personal use and see if my "prediction" comes a reality between December 2025 and February 2026.
--
S&P 500 (CASH500) Short - Head and shoulders H1Potential short on S&P 500.
Risk/reward = 3.4
Entry = 6264.9
Stop loss = 6280.3
TP level 1 = 6221.7 (50%)
TP level 2 = 6200.5 (50%)
Need current candle to close back in range at 10.00 for all variables to be met.
Volume exception applied since current candle is the open of European markets.
Low frequency trading (LFT) vs HFTHey fellow tarders and financial mojol,
I've got some insider info that's going to blow your minds! 🤯
According to my top-secret sources (aka my pet parrot who squawks numbers at me), low-frequency trading algorithms have finally figured out the true fair price of the S&P 500. Drumroll, please... It's $550! That's right, folks, all those high-frequency trading bots are currently aiming for this magical number as we speak.
But wait, there's more! The next step in this thrilling financial adventure involves radiowaving all the way down to $400. Yes, you heard it here first. We're talking about some serious next-level trading strategies that involve actual radio waves. Who needs fiber optics when you've got good old-fashioned radio, right?
So, buckle up and get ready for the ride of your life. The market's about to take a trip back to the good old days when $550 was the dream and $400 was just a stone's throw away.
Happy trading, and remember, if your broker gives you weird looks, just tell them you're tuning into the market's frequency! 📡💸
S&P500: Within reachThe S&P 500 has edged past the 88.70% retracement and is now trading within our magenta Target Zone (Coordinates: 5,880 points to 6,166 points). This places magenta wave (B) likely near its peak - a move that could soon give way to a sharper decline as part of the anticipated wave (C). At current levels, the setup remains favorable for initiating short positions. To manage risks, a stop just 1% above the upper boundary of the Target Zone is recommended. If the index breaks above resistance at 6,6675 points, however, we would shift to an alternative interpretation: a bullish continuation in the form of the wave alt.(III) in blaue. We currently assign a 40% probability to this scenario. One final note: the minimum technical requirement for wave (B) has already been fulfilled by the entry into the Target Zone. This means wave (C) could begin any time.
Over 190 precises analyses, clear entry points and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.