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SPX500USD 2021 July 12 WeekOANDA:SPX500USD SPX500USD 2021 July 12 Week Bar 1 confirmed as SOW and move was manifested on 06 Jul. Theme last week was similar to Nasdaq - trapping longs and shake out Weekly chart: Net gain from previous bar has diminished, volume has picked up slightly.. Daily chart: No significant weakness observed H4 chart: Shortening of trust, weakness manifesting Strategy: Long on retracement is preferred. 1) If price returns to test bar 2, long when price is supported 2) Last bar shortening of thrust. If price hovers around that zone, we may have short opportunity 3) If you see a sudden spike in price and bar closes on its low, forming an upthrust, don't chase Like and follow if you find this useful :) Have a successful week ahead in whatever you do
OANDA:SPX500USD
by paradox677
SPX500USD 2021 May 31 Week (Intraday) OANDA:SPX500USD SPX500USD 2021 May 31 Week (Intraday) Weekly, Daily, H4 = Bullish Last week 4148 immediate support held and then price found acceptance at 4178-4190 (last week's scenario 2). Long was good. Scenario: 1) Market to test 4183-4190. Long if supported 2) Daily chart we see an uthrust bar has formed, this is weakness, so don't be surprised if support is broken, target could be 4148. Like and Follow if you find this useful : ) Have a good trading week ahead!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by paradox677
NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200d Averages & 50% Middle line setStock above their 200d averages: (Below 10% ) -------------------------------------------------------------- *6 oct, '08 -16 Marh '09 = 161 Days = End of crash *3 Oct '11 = 7 Days = Bottom *24 Dec '18 = 7 Days =Bottom *9 March '20-30Mar '20 = 21 Days = bottom ******************************************************** Stock above their 200d averages:(Between10%- 20% ) ----------------------------------------------------------- *22 Jul '02 = 7 Days = End of Crash *7 Oct '02 = 7Days =End of Crash * 14 Jan '08-21Jan '08 =7 Days = fasle signal *3 Mar '08-13Mar '08 =14Days = Risky during a crash! *30 Jun '08-14 Jul ' 08 =21 Days = False signal. * 21 Nov '11 = 7 Days =Bottom *24 Aug '15 = 7 Days =Bottom *11 Jan '16- 16 Feb '16 =42 days = Bottom ---------------------------------------------------------------- Stock above their 200d averages:(Above 90% ) *5 Jan '04 = 21 Days= Beginning of a new grand cycle IMO *24 Aug '09-19Oct '09= 63Day = Beginning of N.G.Cycle IMO ---------------------------------------------------------------- Stock above their 200d averages:(Between 80%-90% ) * 1 followed by Bull Markets *5 followed by Pullbacks. (4 %-7%-19%-4%-6%) * How would you now live in the market that this indicator will not keep going up , big opportunity cos. ___________________________________________ * 1/ Conclusion:- Below 10% is your best friend Ever 2/ Between 10%-20% = 62 % success rate =Big Draw back During crash long time to recover !!! 3/ Above 90 % Beginning of new Grand Cycle IMO (nothing else) 4/ Between 80%-90 % =80% we will get a pullback 20% bull Market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade set up Crossing below 50 & crossing back above 50 is where most of the bottoms 25 signals: ----------------------------------------------------------- crash bottom bottom correction bottom up siwng bottom bottom up swing bottom correction bottom correction bottom bottom boottom bottom correction bottom bottom crash bottom bottom bottom bottom ------------------------ 92 % of bottoms happened between Orange dotted and Blue dotted ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Four Golden Cross on this indicator: Bulls: 30.36 % Bulls 21.71 % Bulls 25.18 % Bear 12.49 % Incoming soon ? -------------------------------- Conclusion: 75% Bull market 25% bear followed by big crash -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ************************************************************************** ************************************************************************* ************************SUMMERAY************************************* ***************************************************************************** 1/Getting a Golden Cross soon 75 % bull market 25% Crash 2/ Bottoms of Crashes, Pullbacks and corrections happened using the trade set up. Crossing Below 50 and Crossing up again above 50. 25 signals with 92 % success rate. 3/Below 10 % is your best ever friend, the problem it does not happen allot one in a cycle. 4/between 10%-20% 62 % success rate ( Not crossing below 10%) 5/ Above 90% is confirmation of the beginning of a new cycle ( we are about to get one soon) 6/ Between 80%-90% = 80% we will get a pullback between (4%-19 %) (Not entering the 90%s)
SP:SPX
by samitrading
SPX500USD 2021 Apr 12 Week (Intraday) OANDA:SPX500USD SPX500USD 2021 Apr 12 Week (Intraday) Congrats to those who took long trade per last week's analysis. Market was kind to materialize the AB=CD target of 4125, and reached 4132 on Friday. Last H4 candle closed off its high, and we have reached the supply line of the upward channel. This may present opportunity for short trades on LTF. And again, also long on pullback Like and Follow if you find this useful : ) Have a good trading week ahead!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by paradox677
US Market Technicals Ahead (15 Mar – 19 Mar 2021)We have officially mark the start of daylight saving time (DST), as North America have moved ahead an hour on Sunday 14th March. US and Canadian markets will trade one hour earlier than usual in Asia time. The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated monetary policy meeting will be the big deal for global financial markets in the week ahead. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economic reopening could boost inflation temporarily and that the US economy was going to start to see stronger employment in the next few months. Still, the Fed chief also said that the central bank was still a long way from its inflation and employment targets. Investors would be eager to hear if the central bank will take any measures to bring bond yields down, which saw the 10-year yield surge above 1.60% to the highest in a year on Friday. Besides the Fed meeting, U.S. retail sales data will be in focus for further indications on the strength of the reopening rebound. Meanwhile, in earnings, there are just a few big names set to report their latest financial results, with global economic bellwether FedEx ($FDX) and athletic apparel giant Nike ($NKE) likely to draw the most attention. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continued its recovery to end up +2.63% (+100.8 points) for the week, gaining traction to recapture its all time high at 3,965 points, a mere 20 points (0.5%) away. At the current junction, $SPX have managed to trade back above its 20DMA & 50DDMA, along with a negation of its short term trendline resistance highlighted last week. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,965, a continuation to break its all time high level. Federal Reserve Policy Meeting The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET (18:00 GMT) on Wednesday, keeping it in a range between 0.0%-0.25%. Perhaps of greater importance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold what will be a closely watched press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed’s statement. Investors will be looking for clear signs that Powell and fellow policymakers are concerned about the current spike in yields amid mounting inflation expectations. U.S. Retail Sales The Commerce Department will release data on retail sales for February on Tuesday at 8:30AM ET (12:30 GMT). The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales fell 0.6% last month, following January’s surge of 5.3%. Excluding the automobile sector, core retail sales are expected to drop 0.1%, after climbing 5.9% in the preceding month. Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth. FedEx, Nike Earnings The fourth-quarter earnings season has all but wound down, however results are expected from a number of big names in the week ahead, with most of the focus falling on FedEx, and Nike, which both report Thursday after the close. Other notable companies reporting this week include Dollar General ($DG), Crowdstrike ($CRWD), Coupa Software ($COUP), PagerDuty ($PD), and Sundial Growers ($SNDL).
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (08 Mar – 12 Mar 2021)President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid bill was passed by the Senate on Saturday and sent back to the House for approval which will take place on Tuesday. Investors will be closely watching the progress of this aid bill through Congress this week against a backdrop of concern over what such a large stimulus package could do to inflation and interest rates. Market participants will also be focusing on U.S. inflation figures with a report on the consumer price index due out on Wednesday and the producer price index scheduled for Friday. In Europe, the European Central Bank will hold its latest policy meeting on Thursday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) reversed most of its losses in late Friday to end up +0.83% in a sign some bargain-hunters may have already swooped in after a bumpy week. This comes after $SPX decline over -3.55% in three consecutive session. At the current development (since last week’s highlight on the structural breakdown of $SPX) Price Action remains below 20DMA Price Action remains below 50DMA Price Action is resisted at lower band of 4 Months uptrend channel Further increase of implied volatility since 16th Feburary 2021 $SPX has a short term establishment of Lower Highs and Lower Lowers for a short term consolidated downtrend channel of 100 points range At the current junction, $SPX remains bullish at a mid-term higher low. Further signs of weakness in this correction will require $SPX to breach its immediate support level at 3,720. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,915, a breakout of its short term downtrend channel. Stimulus: a double-edged sword? The pandemic relief package will give a powerful boost to the economic recovery and to the stock market, but optimism has been offset by fears over rising inflation and interest rates. Investors have taken the recent run-up in bond yields – which has propelled the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since before the pandemic – as a sign of potentially damaging inflation expectations. But U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated Friday that higher long-term Treasury yields were a sign of expectations for a stronger recovery, not of increased inflation concerns. U.S. inflation figures Investors will be closely watching U.S. inflation figures on Wednesday and Friday amid worries over the potential implications of rising price pressures. Last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that even if prices jump as anticipated this spring, “I expect that we will be patient,” and not change monetary policies that need to remain supportive until the economy is “very far along the road to recovery”. ECB meeting Thursday’s ECB meeting is the main event for the euro zone after extended lockdowns in the first quarter. Policymakers will assess the damage to economic growth against a background of a vaccination rollout that is struggling to gain traction, particularly compared with similar efforts in the UK and the U.S. ECB head Christine Lagarde will also announce the bank’s new quarterly forecasts at the post policy meeting press conference. Besides the ECB meeting, the euro zone will release figures for January industrial production on Friday, which are expected to contract.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (01 Mar – 05 Mar 2021)Even after President Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic aid bill narrowly passed the House in the early hours of Saturday, the shakeup in stocks prompted by the rapid run up in Treasury yields looks set to continue to be a major focus for markets in the coming week. Investors will be focusing on Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show that virus restrictions kept a lid on jobs growth in February. Appearances by several Federal Reserve speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell will also be closely watched. Meanwhile, earnings season is wrapping up, but retailers will still be reporting, with Target ($TGT), Kohl’s ($KSS) and Nordstrom ($JWN) due to publish figures on Tuesday, followed by Costco ($COST) on Thursday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) remains in red for the week, furthering its correction by -2.37%. The selling of individual equities was most felt on two separate occasion; on Monday 22nd February ($SPX: -0.56%), and Thursday 25th February ($SPX: -2.60%). It is important to note there were several technical structure being broken on the highlighted Thursday itself; Price Action breakdown on 20DMA (3rd Attempt in last 3 months) Price Action breakdown on 50DMA (2nd Attempt in last 2 months) Price Action breakdown on 4 months Trend Channel (2nd Attempt in last 4 months) Breakdown of immediate support at 3,870 with volume exceeding past 50 trading sessions average by +87%. Increasing implied volatility on the week of selloff. On the flip side, every attempted breakdown on the confluence of above technical structure is accompanied with an immediate, and substantial recovery on $SPX (ie. 1st February to 5th February $SPX: +5.35%). At the current junction, $SPX remains bullish at a higher low. Further signs of weakness in this correction will require $SPX to breach its next classical support level at 3,700, for the first significant lower low to be established since September 2020. It remains wise to capitalize on the potential investment opportunities with a prudent risk level. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,830, a support turned resistance level. Tug of war between stocks, rising bond yields The shift into energy, financial and other stocks set to benefit from the economic reopening has accelerated, while rapidly climbing Treasury yields are pressuring tech stocks that have led market gains for years. Tech stocks are particularly sensitive to rising yields because their value rests heavily on future earnings, which are discounted more deeply when interest rates go up. A dovish sounding Fed together with expectations for more stimulus have propelled yields higher and fueled concerns about inflation and the two-track market looks set to continue, at least in the short team. February jobs report With President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package advancing to the Senate Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for February will show how the recovery in the labor market is faring. Government data late last week showed that initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to their lowest in three months, indicating that the slowing infection rate is allowing the labor market to gain some traction. Retail sales also rebounded in January. Economists are expecting the U.S. economy to have created 165,000 new jobs in February, after January’s 49,000 increase. But the winter storms that swept across the South may complicate the picture. Powell speech With the rapid climb in Treasury yields roiling the stock market investors may be hoping for Fed officials to address the selloff in Treasuries. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak about the economy at an online event hosted by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday. So far there has been little sign of anxiety among Fed officials about higher Treasury yields. Last week Powell said the move higher was the result of a stronger economy but added that the rate of economic recovery has slowed in recent months and reiterated that monetary policy will remain easy for some time to come.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (1 Feb – 5 Feb 2021)A big week for earnings, including reports from Amazon ($AMZN), Alphabet ($GOOGL), Exxon Mobil ($XOM) and Pfizer ($PFE). Stimulus negotiations in Washington and the first jobs report of 2021 (January) will all be major events to watch in the coming week, but they are likely to be overshadowed by the standoff between retail investors and Wall Street hedge funds. Investors will be watching closely to see if the short squeezes driven by retail investors continue in what could be a bumpy week for stocks. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) ended the January flat, with a weekly loss of -3.47%. The correction have breached the multi-month long Trend Channel, along with 20SMA support convincingly, with the month’s highest transactional volume witnessed on 28th January. Additionally 50SMA was also breached on Friday session. This pullback affirms the technical Bearish Divergence between price rally and volume decline highlighted last week. At the current junction, $SPX remains trading above 3,660 level, a classical support level established at the start of 2021. The breach of this support will see S&P500 trades at a cumulative loss for 2021. 1. The big squeeze Last week saw retail investors using Robinhood and other apps drive a frenzied rally in shares of GameStop ($GME), AMC ($AMC) and other companies championed on social media platforms including Reddit’s WallStreetBets, that had been heavily shorted by hedge funds. U.S. stock indexes suffered their biggest weekly fall since late October as the short squeezes saw hedge funds sell stocks to cover their losses, despite positive earnings results from market heavyweights like Apple ($AAPL) and Microsoft ($MSFT). Some market watchers are concerned that the wild rally may be a fresh sign of overexuberance that could foreshadow volatility for the broader stock market, while others believe it is more of a sideshow. 2. Earnings With quarterly earnings season in full swing, market participants are looking at whether companies can justify high valuations. “By and large the surprises have been positive, even more so than typical and by and large companies are showing positive operating leverage where they are able to grow earnings a little bit faster than they are able to grow revenue,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L.Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts. Tech giants Alphabet ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are both due to report after the market close on Tuesday, followed by Qualcomm ($QCOM), Snap ($SNAP) and Pinterest ($PINS) later in the week. Some big names in the closely watched healthcare sector are also to report, including Pfizer ($PFE), GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK), AbbVie ($ABBV), Biogen ($BIIB), Gilead Sciences ($GILD), Merck ($MRK) and Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY). 3. January jobs report The January nonfarm payrolls report will give markets the first look at the health of the labor market inherited by U.S. President Joe Biden. The report is expected to show a slight uptick in hiring after the economy shed 140,000 jobs in December (mostly from restaurants and bars), but more substantial improvements are unlikely to come until there is a broader re-opening of the economy. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.7% – almost twice the level that it was just prior to the pandemic. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said that the economic recovery hinges on the progress of the vaccination rollout. “There’s nothing more important to the economy than people getting vaccinated,” Powell said.
ULong
by jfsrevg
SPX500USD 2021 Jan 25 Week SPX500USD 2021 Jan 25 Week After the recent high showing supply, 2nd last bar again is a sign of weakness. Besides, it has fallen out of channel and If price broke 3820 and it becomes resistance and let's see if a lower high is formed to confirm change in trend in the near term. Resistant3 = 3927.5 Resistant2 = 3883.90 - 3894.20 Resistant1 = 3862 - 3869 Support1 = 3820 - 3833 Support2 = 3774.5 - 3784 Support3 = 3723.5 - 3728 Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful. Have a safe and successful trading week ahead. OANDA:SPX500USD
OANDA:SPX500USD
by paradox677
US Market Technicals Ahead (19 Jan – 22 Jan 2021)The holiday shortened week will see Joe Biden inauguration as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday with investors waiting to see how his plans for stimulus relief and tackling the pandemic will roll out. Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing as the U.S.’s first female Treasury secretary is set to take place on Tuesday. The fourth-quarter earnings season continues next week, with companies such as IBM ($IBM), Netflix ($NFLX), Intel ($INTC) and P&G ($PG) reporting their results. The European Central Bank is to hold its latest policy meeting against a background of renewed lockdowns to contain the pandemic. Meanwhile, a raft of PMI data from the U.S, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK on Friday will lay bare the state of the global economy at the start of 2021. Fourth quarter and full year GDP data out of China on Monday could show that it was the only major world economy to have expanded in 2020. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) underwent a correction of -1.98% (-76 points), with majority of the losses experienced on Friday after market missing the estimates of US. Retail Sales for December (-0.7% MoM vs 0%. MoM). With the above, the highlighted Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern last week is currently in play. At the current junction, the $SPX remains firmly within the congested 2 months trend channel, with 20DMA supporting the rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. The immediate support to watch for any further weaknesses is at 3,660 level. This level would see $SPX breaking down the highlighted trend channel convincingly, along with the first break of a minor classical support established on the opening week of 2021. 1. Biden bump? Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th U.S. president Wednesday, taking over the leadership of a country ravaged by the pandemic and facing deep socio-economic divisions. Biden has announced a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, which includes $1,400 stimulus checks but this may prove a double-edged sword for investors, bolstering optimism over the outlook for the economic recovery while raising worries over how the U.S. will afford it. The S&P 500 has risen in the first 100 calendar days of eight out of the last 10 presidential terms, but Biden’s first 100 days may be more fraught than those of his predecessors. He needs to stimulate the economy quickly, but the narrow Democrat majority in Congress means the size and timing of the package remain uncertain. 2. Earnings Investors will be anxious to see whether upcoming earnings results validate expectations for a strong rebound in 2021. U.S. stocks are at record highs, boosted largely by optimism that the vaccine rollout will allow for a recovery, while hopes of more fiscal stimulus have also underpinned gains. Earnings reports for the last quarter of 2020 will get underway in earnest with the release of results from companies including Bank of America ($BAC), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Netflix ($NFLX), Charles Schwab ($SCHW), Procter & Gamble ($PG), United Airlines ($UAL), Intel ($INTC) and IBM ($IBM). Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 9.5% in the final quarter of 2020 from a year ago, but are expected to rebound in 2021, with a gain of 16.4% projected for the first quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. 3. ECB meeting The ECB is to hold its first meeting of 2021 on Thursday. Policymakers announced extra stimulus in December, but the economic outlook has been clouded again by the discovery of new Covid-19 strains and the relatively slow pace of the vaccination rollout. Cause for concern? Not so, comments from Christine Lagarde suggest. The ECB chief predicts recovery as COVID subsides, seeing the glass as half-full, not half-empty. Germany’s economy too is cause for optimism, shrinking by a less-than-expected 5% in 2020. But prolonged lockdowns will hurt. Against this backdrop, markets will want the ECB to signal its commitment to using the full firepower of its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.24 trillion) emergency bond-buying scheme – something on which policymakers appear to be split.
ULong
by jfsrevg