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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

OEX /SPX Bullish wave 5 pattern crossroads The chart posted is the sp 100 I am posting it as we are now at the crossroad for bull or bear count .We have rallied to .786 as I will show and have a wave a x 1.27 = c at the .786 High But if we break above 5922 in the Cash SP 500 There is NOTHING to stop it from reaching a target of 3005 in the OEX where wave A up or wave 1 x 1.618 = wave C Top or wave 3 in the SP 500 WAVE A or WAVE 1 up 5481 - 4835 = 646 x 1.618 =1045 plus wave B low or wave 2 5102low= 5102plus 1045 =6147.22 The exact high . This is the reason I took the loss and moved LONG .Best of trades WAVETIMER
SP:OEX
by wavetimer
2
S&P Correction Window is official - VOLATILITY AHEADIt's that time of year where the pre-summer push wraps and the summer lull and potential pause gets underway. July 31 finished on a bit of a sour note with over 67% of stocks declining today and US indexes finishing RED despite the big gaps and bullish pops on MSFT and META post earnings.f SPX Key Levels -watch the 21 day moving average -watch the 50 day moving average -more dynamic support in the 100/144/200 moving average cluster I'll be taking bites at the 5/10/15% correction levels with options and looking for this dip to be bought by retail and institutions. Will August 1 US Tariff Deadline matter? After Japan and Eurozone came in and said a deal is being done, I was thinking this would be a dud. BUT, Dr. Copper says "maybe" on the global tariff deadline with the largest single day move in history (bearish). Being the perfect time of year for a correction (the other being Feb-Apr), and the technicals looking so clean for an orderly pullback, VIX may float higher and make things more interesting in the next 30-60 days. Strategies matter, I'll be trading risk defined, but there are great opportunities ahead. A pullback is sure better than literally watching all-time highs every single day. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
S&P 500 (ES1): Post FOMC, Buyers Pushing Back To The Highs!In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for July 31 - Aug 1st. S&P 500 (ES1!) In the Weekly Forecast for the S&P 500, we highlighted: - price is bullish, and expected to go higher. It did move to ATH before pulling back. - the sell side liquidity under the ascending lows would draw price.... which it did. - the Area of Fair Value below the lows, with the Demand Zone as the potential level where a a high probability long could setup.... which was spot on! Did you benefit from the forecast? Let me hear from you if you did, in the comment section. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
4
08/1/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +440 Sleep: 6 hours Overall health: Good VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 10:12 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal — 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal —12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 1:50 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal, — 3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!** What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Market range expanded a lot today, we dropped over 100 points today and sometimes i forget to adjust my bracket orders to go for 10 -15 points take profits when the volatility is so high. But overall, it was a good day, I knew to be patient as market was wild and sometimes you want to just snipe a few trades and call it a day before you get caught on the wrong side. The great thing about big moves is that it will eventually hit a major level and it will react really well, you just have to wait for it. a great question is will the market recover? Or is going back down to April prices? News *STOCKS TUMBLE TO END THE WEEK, VIX SPIKES AS SOFT JOBS DATA STOKE ECONOMIC JITTERS What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6330= Bullish, Under 6310= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
**07/31/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis ** EOD accountability report: + Sleep: 5.5 hours Overall health: Good ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) ** — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3 — 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X7 Sell signal — 9:32 AM Bullish market structure got cancelled — 11:40 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal — 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal — 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 1:22 PM if we lose 6415 and stayy under it . Bullish Market structure is cancelled. — 1:55 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today marked the 4th day of the structure signals being iffy as they try to tip the volumes bullish just to cancel it right afterwards. I was starting to get a bit tilted today as I had a bunch of orders at area that didn't get filled and eventually just gave up trying to have a green day and walked away. looking at some of the other charts, i also we are getting a doji on the longer time frames and it is starting to look like bear's wet dream. However, Mag 7 stock earnings were really great, the only downside was rate cut isn't happening. News *U.S. STOCKS END LOWER, VIX JUMPS AS S&P 500, NASDAQ RETREAT FROM RECORDS DESPITE MONSTER META AND MICROSOFT EARNINGS What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6415= Bullish, Under 6403= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 31, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 31, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates — Dissent Indicates Division The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50%. Notably, two governors—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—dissented in favor of a 25 bp rate cut, underscoring internal divisions amid growing political pressure 📈 Strong Q2 Growth, But No Rate-Cut Signal U.S. GDP expanded at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2, rebounding sharply from Q1's contraction. Despite this, Powell emphasized persistent inflation, particularly from tariffs, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious policy stance 🛢️ Oil Climbs as Tariff Tensions Rise Brent crude rose to ~$73.51 and WTI to ~$70.37 on fears of supply disruptions tied to President Trump’s threats of new tariffs on Russian oil and new tariffs imposed on Brazil and South Korea 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Thursday, July 31: 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 26) Initial claims rose to 222,000, up from 217,000 previously—an early gauge of labor-market trends 8:30 AM ET – Employment Cost Index (Q2) Quarterly growth in labor costs edged lower to 0.8%, down from 0.9%—a signal of moderate wage pressures 8:30 AM ET – Personal Income (June) Data released on household income and spending patterns—crucial for assessing consumer resilience heading into Q3 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 30, 2025🔮 Nightly  AMEX:SPY  /  SP:SPX  Scenarios for July 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🧭 Fed Holds Steady Amid Uncertainty As the FOMC enters its July 29–30 meeting, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, even as one or two governors may dissent in favor of rate cuts amid mixed economic data. Recent strength in consumer spending contrasts with weakness in housing and construction. 🌐 U.S.–China Trade Talks Resumed in Stockholm Talks are under way aimed at extending the tariff truce before the August 12 deadline. Both sides described progress as constructive, though analysts remain cautious on the timeline and potential outcomes. 🛢️ Oil Up / Dollar Firmer, But Risks Remain Brent crude hit ~$72.50/barrel (+3.5%) while WTI rose to ~$69.20 on a mix of geopolitical tension (possible new Russia tariffs) and trade optimism. The U.S. dollar edged higher following the U.S.–EU trade agreement. 📈 IMF Revises Up Global Growth—but Flags Tariff Risks The IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.0% and maintained 3.1% for 2026, citing pre-emptive consumer demand—but warned that ongoing U.S. tariffs and policy inconsistency could dampen momentum. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 30: FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady. Powell’s remarks will be closely watched for signals on the timing of future cuts and views on inflation and labor markets. Advance Q2 U.S. GDP Estimate The first look at Q2 growth is expected around +1.9% YoY, potentially validating a rebound after Q1’s contraction. June PCE & Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index) The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Markets will monitor if core inflation remains elevated, which may reinforce policy caution. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #GDP #inflation #trade #tariffs #markets
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
2
$SPY rolling over, potentially to new lows?While I was early to the idea (like usual), still don't think the thesis will be wrong. I still believe we're going to see a large move down from here. Yesterday's price action made me pretty confident a top was in (TBD). We had positive news and the market couldn't rally on that positive news and we ended up closing at the lows -- indicating to me there's no more buyers. Today we have treasuries, the dollar and volatility all rallying while equities selloff, a classic risk off signal. You also have crypto selling off too. I think we see a large risk off move from here on out, the target is the $440 area (extreme down to $400), but if we find support at one of the other levels above that, there's potential for us to rally from there. Will have to see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
16
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 29, 2025🔮 Nightly  AMEX:SPY  /  SP:SPX  Scenarios for July 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 U.S.–EU Trade Deal Sparks Optimism The U.S. and EU signed a trade framework allowing a 15% tariff rate on most EU imports, averting harsher penalties. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh record highs, supported by upbeat tech earnings sentiment—Tesla advanced on a new $16.5B AI chip deal with Samsung—while U.S.–China trade talks resume in Stockholm. Fed Likely to Hold Rates; Political Pressure Mounts The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% at the July 29–30 FOMC meeting. Chair Powell faces growing political pressure from President Trump to cut rates and concerns about central bank independence remain elevated. Trade Talks Extension to Avoid Tariff Hike Deadline The August 1 tariff deadline looms. Markets are watching to see if trade deals with China, Canada, and the EU extend the pause or risk new tariffs. Volume in AI/chip stocks and industrials reflects sensitivity to trade developments. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 29 FOMC Meeting Begins — All eyes on Fed rate decision and updated projections. GDP (Advance Q2 Estimate) — Expected around +1.9% on signs of economic rebound. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #tariffs #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Direxion High Beta Bull S&P 500 3X | HIBL | Long at $30.86Contrarian view, despite tariffs. I don't think this rodeo is over - but I could always be wrong. Even if individual consumption drops (which I think it has for some time now), rising prices will continue to mask it. Many, but not all, companies will profit and until there is a "bigger" catalyst... bullish. AMEX:HIBL is a personal buy at $30.86 (also noting the possibility of it going into the FWB:20S in the near-term) Targets: $40.00 $45.00 $50.00
AMEX:HIBLLong
by WorthlessViews
Semiconductors & SOXL: A Bull ThesisWhy Semiconductors? Virtually every single electronic device contains some form of a semiconductor unit within its components. The entire Bull theory on semiconductors as an industry could be reduced to this one sentence. The following, however, will introduce concepts contingent to the understanding of what is shaping the market for semiconductors. The weight of intra-industry, political, macroeconomic, and physical factors discerning an inconceivable upside potential for certain investments carrying maximum exposure to the sector, such as AMEX:SOXL . The last section contains my technical approach to trading SOXL. We begin with the fundamental, and by fundamental, I refer to the simplest reasons for what is happening in the market up until now; [ Early morning Monday, 7/28 ]. Macroeconomic Context Like essentially the rest of the market, SOXL hit its 1 year low of 7.23 USD on Monday, 4/7, following the announcement (and soon postponement) of global tariffs at levels not observed since the early 30's. This of course sparked a panic spiral in the entire market, leading to outflows from the S&P 500 of approximately 70 billion USD during the month of April. During this time we also saw a new, but familiar narrative emerge. Asset Managers, Such as J.P. Morgan set historically low price targets on the S&P 500, going as low as 5,200 USD. They reinforced their PTs with publications warning investors across the world that the risk of recession in the United States was raised to 80%, and this message was relayed across all media in parabolic fashion. While it does not seem too outward to assume an increased risk of recession due to tariffs by looking back on what we learned of the consequences from the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. There exists a widely overlooked, fundamental , reason as to why I can claim that the REAL risk of recession at the time that J.P. Morgan assigned an 80% risk of recession, was in actuality, 0% (I assume J.P. Morgan knew this but pushed the narrative anyways in order to acquire massive equity at a discount). If anyone has taken introductory macroeconomics in their lifetime, they may be familiar with the function for calculating GDP via the expenditure approach: GDP = C + I + G - NX. Now, why am I referencing high school/college economics basics, the answer to that lies in how we determine our rate of economic growth in the context of tariffs. The part of this formula that we must focus on is NX or Net Exports, the negative factor to GDP. Tariffs, if implemented would effectively decrease import volume, resulting in a smaller Net Exports, and ultimately a higher GDP calculation. Now, what makes this scenario unique, the tariffs having been postponed shortly after their inception, allowed US retailers to engage in front running, or the accelerated purchasing of foreign goods in advance of tariffs. During the month of April, we saw a 5.4% increase in import volume in US west coast ports. This increase in imports effectively caused the inverse impact on GDP growth that import tariffs themselves would have caused: front-running lead to import uptick, leading to a greater Net Exports, which results in lower (negative) GDP growth. Essentially, tariffs in the short-term increases GDP growth (in the long term deadweight loss, and cost structure distortion comes in to play, but that doesn't matter yet), however , tariffs that are announced but not immediately implemented will result in a lower GDP growth, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the whole situation that translated into a cut in CapEx as companies scrambled to determine if tariffs would f*ck them over or not. This argument is further supported by the trends observed in the foreign exchange market. You may have heard in the news that we are experiencing a period of "Dollar Weakness", and while, yes, you can clearly see that the USD has fared rather poorly against other currencies in most major dollar pairs over the past few months. The agent behind this isn't just that the dollar happens to be weak, it is a combination of factors that generate noise and volatility in the forex market. The two main factors highlighted by the media are 1. The obvious political policy instability, pushing bond yields higher, plus a significant debt ceiling raise as per the BBB and 2. the expectations of interest rate cuts over the next year. The other, less recognized major factor to dollar weakness is exactly what we described above: Increased imports means more dollars flowing out of the economy. When these dollars land abroad, they are converted into the native currency, driving down the demand for the dollar. Notice how none of the reasons described above, actually have anything to do with what truly drives foreign exchange markets. Over time, the strength/weakness of a currency is directly correlated to the strength/weakness of the underlying economy. To say that we can expect dollar weakness due to the aforementioned reasons outright ignores the economic growth potential that exists in our economy at this current time, subsiding the out-of-proportion tariff fears as a proponent to an economic crisis. In an all-encompassing view, what I would describe to be occurring on the macro level is a sort of "slingshot" effect: Trade imbalances and private sector response to policy unclarity results in a pullback in economic growth, one that we are now experiencing as a short-term effect. From a medium-long term perspective, assuming that tariffs aren't persistent in the long term, we would see full fledge economic boom, driven by non other than the growth of our technology sector, which at it's core, lies the almighty semiconductor. Growth of AI as a driver of Semiconductor demand: Stable trajectory or Bubble Territory? Having laid the economic framework for picking the general direction our market is heading in, we can now begin to talk about the internal combustion occurring within the world of technology, and the two letter term associated with just about every cool thing in the business world, that is of course AI. Now just to clarify, AI is not new, its been around for at least 20 years and has a well established role in the world prior to the existence of ChatGPT. What changed so drastically in recent years is the breakthrough into a new form of artificial intelligence, known as "Artificial General Intelligence" or AGI. Long story short: AGI's primary difference in the business context is the colossal amount of electrical infrastructure and computing power that is demanded by the development of these mega language models. As a result of the high barrier for entry to this new industry, only 5 AGI companies have arisen to the global stage: OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Microsoft, and DeepSeek. Increasing competition in this space through more players entering the market is unlikely at this time as the cost to create a standalone AGI model is so astronomical. This is a particularly good thing because it tells us that AGI as an industry can result in natural monopolies. The ultra-intensive RnD costs and Data Center infrastructure demands make it more sensical to have a greater number of resources dedicated to producing 1 AGI model, instead of dividing resources to develop multiple less optimized models (similar to how a water company holds a natural monopoly as competition in that industry would result in no foreseeable benefit to it's customers). A further effect from this dynamic lies in how businesses in this industry scale to expand, and its pretty straightforward: the more megawatt computing power a model can access, the more parameters a model can account for, and the more vast the dataset that model can train on, with enhancing speed and efficiency (GPT 4o takes into account >500B parameters in a given query). We see the concept of natural monopoly playing out as the concentration of market capitalization is becoming more extreme where firms like Google, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are absorbing larger share of the market, while trading at ever increasing Price/Earnings multiples. To many, this reflects a trend we saw during the dot com bubble, however what makes the AGI industry different is the nature of the good or service provided. During the dot com boom, companies saw speculative value based on only the fact that their business existed on the .com domain. We know that each of these businesses are unique, providing a good or service across whatever industry they were part of, the only thing having in common was that dot com. The major oversight that took place during the turn of the dot com era was that the success of these businesses wasn't in truth due to them ending in .com, but whether the idea, and execution behind the underlying business is strong or not. Like how Amazon and Facebook saw unparalleled success not just because they were .coms, but because they were pioneering business models that would attract global demand to the services they were providing. The business of AGI has a sort of homogenous property. All AGI companies produce a service that is extremely similar in nature, the only ways they can compete with one another is through Capital Expenditure towards harnessing more computing power. This is the main reason capital is concentrating in a handful of companies trading at high multiples. To me, this is not an indication of a tech bubble but rather a product of how the AGI industry is poised to grow within our economy. AGI as a Factor of Production To get even more philosophical, we can think about how AGI itself enhances economic growth. We already see AGI tools applied in various ways, but the most widespread application pertains to the enhancement of human capital. While it is possible to make AGI models complete ongoing tasks completely on their own with zero human input, its far more common to see AGI tools be used, well, as tools. What I mean is that firms are not looking to replace human workers with AI ones (certain exceptions may include the manufacturing industry), instead they want to integrate AGI tools into their workforce as a means of optimizing regular processes, allowing them to access and process information with tremendous efficiency. The most observable economic outcome of this is firms being able to cut costs in human capital requirements, allowing them to achieve the same level of workflow with a smaller number of employees, or outsourcing solutions to business processes by way of automation utilizing AGI. The possibilities are endless and the economic impact of AGI appears to write itself new economic theory to explain how business growth is accelerating in unprecedented ways. Semiconductor Physical Limitations: Blessing or Burden? In 1965, Gordon Moore articulated his observation which would come to be known as Moore's Law. He observed that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles approximately every 2 years. Based not so much on law of physics, Moore's law describes an empirical relationship between time and the number of transistors per chip, suggesting that the rate of production advancements would allow for such doubling to occur on a biannual basis. And to Gordon's own surprise, he was right. Transistor count for a given chip roughly doubled every 2 years for the following 50 years. However, Gordon also predicted that Moore's Law would come to an end in 2025, where transistor sizes would reach the physical limit of 2 nanometers (10-15 silicon atoms in width). While it may appear as a bottleneck to the semiconductor and AI industry, not being able to fit anymore transistors on one chip, but in reality, this limitation pressures companies to pursue innovations such as semiconductor packaging, which is NVIDIA's bread and butter. This technique allows for the stacking and integrating of many different chips to perform together as one. This technology has already proven wildly successful and is the backbone to virtually all of NVIDIA's GPU products. Google has invented their own method to getting around the physical limitation of silicon chips, producing AI-specialized integrated circuits known as Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Catering these innovative solutions to expanding the frontier of AGI is almost a given. How to play this market: A Technical Approach If you have made it this far, I commend you. The following describes my approach to analyzing price activity in SOXL: My First entry into SOXL took place on 5/30 with a unit cost of 16.50 USD. Two things can be noted prior to this entry. 1: Fund flows during late February, into March, and through April were extremely high, net inflow of 6.85 Billion USD, however price movement did not reflect the huge inflow until late April/early May where we began to see upward price direction. The beginning of June marked the start of the market bull rally which consolidated into our current price range of 25-28 USD, following contingent earnings releases of NASDAQ:ASML , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:NXPI and NASDAQ:INTC . The most recent pullback was a combination of a slightly concerning outlook from ASML, stating that tariffs on the EU would negatively affect projected sales growth for the 2026 fiscal year. As for TSM, there is not one concerning thing that could be said regarding the state of its business growth other than the New Taiwan Dollar gaining considerable strength over the USD amid trade relations between the US and Taiwan, affecting TSM's gross margin by an estimated 6%. NXPI released a sub par earnings and revenue growth outlook, but in my opinion this is not to be too heavily objectified as NXPI produces chips primarily for the Automotive sector, thus making it's sales heavily contingent on supply chain issues being faced by automotive manufacturers in leu of tariffs. NXPI carries a 3.5% market share in semiconductors whereas TSM carries a 68% market share. Lastly, INTC, earnings release I am almost embarrassed to talk about. If it were up to me I'd say they sell their plants in Ohio to TSM and look into opening a fruit stand instead. The most important earnings releases have yet to come though. NASDAQ:MSFT is just around the corner on 7/30, and NASDAQ:NVDA announces on 8/27. These two earnings reports will carry major weight in hinting the overall direction, momentum the market sees in AI demand growth, and the technology sector as a whole. Speculating, I have high expectations that both MSFT and NVDA will top all estimates, pushing the bar higher for 2025 into 2026. If we look at our short-term 50-day SMA/EMA, you will notice a crossover occur on 5/6, a minor indication of a short term positive trend. Alone this is insignificant, but if we look at our 14-day Average True Range, we can see that this crossover aligns with a fall in ATR that would persist between the values of 1.37 and 1.59. This low ATR value signals that trailing volatility is actually quite low for semiconductors, considering the currently mixed market sentiment. Further along we see that price has crossed above both our long-term, 200-day SMA/EMA and a crossover occurred between the two on 7/23, serving as a small indication of a positive long term trend. Once again, not super significant on its own, but you will notice that the convergence aligns perfectly with a sharp increase in fund inflows, netting 491 Million USD in a matter of 3 trading days. If we see a continuation of net inflows over the several days, we can expect a near future extension of our bull rally, a semi-cyclical wave of inflows that concentrate during consolidation periods (which we have seen take place in the current price range between 25-28 USD following my first exit at 27.50 USD). If we extrapolate both our short-term and long-term SMA/EMA, we can anticipate a crossover to occur in the coming days to weeks. If this occurred, that would further reinforce our expectation for a positive long term trend. I have already locked in my entry 2 with a limit order executed at 25 USD. If all of the above conditions are met, I would confidently predict that we may see SOXL trade at around 42 USD in the coming months. One more thing I would like to note, if we zoom out to our 5 year historical price progression, we can identify the previous high of 70.08 USD occurring on 7/11/2024. We know that the bull rally which took place in July of last year can be attributed to the first realization of AI as a driver for semiconductor demand, combined with renewed interest in GPU technology for applications in crypto. If we compare AI-related Capital Expenditure in fiscal year 2024 to AI-related Capital Expenditure of the first half of 2025 fiscal year: 246 Billion USD made up AI-related CapEx for all of 2024, vs first 6 months of 2025, adding up to 320 Billion USD. That is a 30% increase in capex, and we still have another 5-6 months to go. Just some food for thought. Do you believe all of the above has been priced into SOXL, leave your thoughts in the comments! Disclaimer You must obviously keep in mind, SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, you can expect volatility with such type of investment. However, in capturing a bullish market, a 3x leveraged investment may produce greater than 3x the returns as the underlying (non leveraged) assets, due to the effect of compounding growth of returns over time. However, the same is true for sideways, or bearish markets, losses may be amplified to greater than 3x. If this is an uncertainty you do not wish to be exposed to, I would opt for the non-leveraged Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SOXX ), or divide your allocation across the top 5-10 equity holdings of SOXL. Please remember to employ your OWN due diligence before making any investment decision, as none of what I am saying shall serve as financial advise to you, the reader.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by Research_by_Federico
3
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Faces Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 4.25%–4.50% during its FOMC meeting midweek. While rates are unchanged, political pressure from President Trump continues as calls intensify for rate cuts and questions arise over the Fed’s independence—including dissent from Governors Waller and Bowman. 📦 Trade Truce Extends & New Deal With EU A new trade framework with the EU reduces tariffs to 15%, easing tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese trade teams begin talks in Stockholm on Monday aiming to avoid an early-August tariff deadline. 💻 Tech and Mega-Cap Earnings Spotlight This week features earnings from tech giants including Meta, Microsoft (Wednesday), followed by Amazon and Apple (Thursday). Markets will prioritize forward guidance around AI investments, capital expenditures, and sales trends. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 28 No major releases 📅 Tuesday, July 29 Chicago PMI (July flash) – early indicator of regional manufacturing trends. Global PMIs – flash readings for Europe and Asia gauge economic health. 📅 Wednesday, July 30 FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference – investors will scrutinize tone, forward guidance on rates, labor markets, and inflation. Q2 U.S. GDP (Advance Estimate) – expected at ~1.9%, signaling rebound after Q1 contraction. 📅 Thursday, July 31 June PCE & Core PCE Indexes – Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Core PCE expected at ~2.7% YoY. Consumer Confidence (July) – key for household spending trends. Trade Balance (June) – provides data on U.S. import/export dynamics. 📅 Friday, August 1 July Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment & Wage Data – forecast for ~102,000 new jobs and ~4.2% unemployment; markets await for labor-market cooling signs. Tariff Deadline – new tariffs loom unless trade agreements with EU, Canada, China etc. materialize by today’s cutoff. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is educational and informational only. It is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #inflation #tariffs #GDP #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
S&P 500 (ES1): Buyers In Control Amid Tariff Deals & EarningsWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P 500 rose Friday to fresh highs, following a busy week of tariff updates and earnings. The S&P ended the week with its fifth straight record close, its longest such streak in over a year. No reason to consider selling. Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys. FOMC and NFP loom. Be careful to avoid new entries during news times. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
ES Weekly Recap & Gameplan – 27.07.2025🧭 Market Sentiment The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by: • Declining inflation figures • Trump’s pivot toward aggressive rate cuts This shift reinforces a risk-on environment across U.S. indices. 🔙 Previous Week Recap • ES continued its price discovery journey • Price ran the 4H swing liquidity and shifted market structure • A clean 1H demand zone was established post-MSS, leading to a strong move toward new ATH • A bullish trendline has also formed as a visual representation of this momentum • I anticipated a deeper retracement last week but adjusted my execution based on the ICT SMT concept — see previous week’s ES plan for details 📊 Technical Analysis Looking forward: • My expectation is a continued bullish price discovery • Watching for price to tap into and potentially deviate below the Daily Fair Value Gap (D-FVG) • This zone also aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci equilibrium level, which I consider a discounted entry zone • Confluence of liquidity + trendline + FVG + Fib makes this an ideal location for new long setups ⚙️ Setup Trigger & Trade Plan Entry Strategy: • Wait for a clear 1H–4H market structure shift • Look for demand zone formation within the discount zone • Execute long trades after confirmation and retracement into this zone Trade Management: 🎯 Target: New All-Time Highs ⛔ Stoploss: Swing low beneath 1H–4H demand structure 🗨️ If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like and drop a comment below — I’d love to hear your thoughts and setups for the week! 📥 Follow me for more weekly breakdowns and real-time updates throughout the trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
SPY Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the SPY next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 637.01 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 628.63 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
History does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhymeIt’s widely accepted that Mark Twain once said (or wrote) that “history does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhyme”. Historical Parallels to a Super Cycle Wave (I) Top in U.S. Equities The road to a major market top is often paved with echoing patterns from the past, and today's landscape bears an uncanny resemblance to pivotal historical events that preceded economic upheaval. The 1918 Spanish Flu—though less economically damaging in the U.S. than elsewhere, still triggered a 1.5% drop in GDP and a 2.1% decline in consumer spending. The resulting economic weakness, paired with rising inflation, eroded real returns on equities and short-term government bonds for years. Then came the 1929 stock market crash, the spark that ignited the Great Depression. Driven by a perfect storm of extreme speculation, sky-high valuations, and a regulatory vacuum, the collapse revealed the systemic fragility beneath the euphoria. Adding fuel to the fire, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 slammed the brakes on global trade. By sharply raising tariffs on imports, it invited swift retaliatory measures from abroad. The result: a devastating plunge in both U.S. exports and imports, deepening the economic crisis and worsening unemployment. Smoot-Hawley has since become a textbook example of how protectionist policy can magnify economic damage. Modern Echoes: A Cycle Repeating? Fast forward to the present and we see unsettling similarities. The Covid-19 pandemic serves as a modern analog to the 1918 flu, disrupting global supply chains and triggering a steep drop in GDP and consumer spending. Unlike the post-WWI period, however, inflation didn’t precede the crisis, it exploded afterward, fueled by pent-up demand and fiscal stimulus, giving rise to persistent “sticky” inflation....and NOT TRANSITORY. In a similar inversion of sequence, the Trump-era tariffs—modern-day echoes of Smoot-Hawley, were enacted before any major equity downturn, not after. Still, their long-term impact on global trade and supply chain reliability remains a pressure point for the economy. Most critically, speculation and valuation excess are again center stage. Just as the roaring ’20s were characterized by euphoric risk-taking, today’s U.S. equity market is trading at record-high P/E ratios, despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty and deteriorating breadth. These historical and contemporary markers suggest we may be approaching the apex of a Super Cycle Wave (III), a turning point that, like its predecessors, may only be fully recognized in hindsight. It is my contention, that history is currently rhyming. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
2