I am 100 % short spy and qqq I am BULLISH DXY the chart posted is now setup for the cycle top On several cycles and we have just popped the Shiller p/e above 3866 second highest reading ever . Cycle are into a peak that was due 7/5 to 7/14 So why are we now turning down .? wait the energy from one of the largest solar storms is the time for the transition it is also a new moon . my spirals have called for the top as it did in 12/5 and 2/17 . I see a min drop of over 8 and could see well over 11.8 within the next 90 days . best of trades WAVETIMER
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
$QQQ this might the spot. Hello and good night, evening, afternoon, or morning wherever you may be. I have been looking at names all day and I wanted to check the indexes: NASDAQ:QQQ and $SPY.
Here we have the indexes up almost 30% from the April lows and sitting about 10% YTD. The candle highlighted is the spinning stop candle and has volume to match. These candles usually take place (green or red) in downtrends or uptrends and provide pivotal indication. The market has major earnings this week (07/21/2025 to 07/25/2025) with names like Google, Tesla, General Dynamics, Verizon, Domino’s And so forth.
This week could be a catalyst to see some great volatility. I believe staying 3% from moving averages so I have noted 3.5% from the 50EMA and revisiting the 20EMA and 21EMA in the low $550 area. My target is $553 which is only a 1.4% move which can happen in one session in this environment while staying 3.5% above the 50EMA.
My trade idea will be $553p for 07/25/2025. Good luck!
WSL
TESLA 400 BY END OF YEAR !! 5 REASONS !!!
1. **Strong Earnings and Revenue Growth**
Tesla has a track record of exceeding earnings expectations. If the company reports robust financial results in Q3 and Q4—driven by higher vehicle deliveries and growth in its energy storage business—investors are likely to gain confidence. This could push the stock price upward as Tesla demonstrates its ability to scale profitably.
2. **Advancements in Autonomous Driving**
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is a game-changer in the making. If Tesla achieves significant progress toward Level 4 or 5 autonomy—where vehicles can operate with little to no human intervention—it could position the company as a leader in transportation innovation. Such a breakthrough would likely excite investors and drive the stock price higher.
3. **Battery Technology Innovation**
Tesla is working on developing cheaper, longer-lasting batteries, which could lower production costs and improve profit margins. If the company announces advancements in battery tech—such as improvements from its Battery Day initiatives or new manufacturing processes—it could signal a competitive edge, boosting the stock to $400.
4. **Global Expansion and Production Increases**
Tesla’s new Gigafactories in Texas and Berlin are ramping up production, while potential market entries like India loom on the horizon. Increased output and access to new customers signal strong growth potential. If Tesla successfully scales its operations, investors may see this as a reason to push the stock price toward $400.
5. **Favorable Market Trends and Government Policies**
The global shift toward sustainable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, supported by government incentives and regulations favoring clean energy. If EV adoption continues to rise and policies provide a tailwind—such as subsidies or stricter emissions standards—Tesla, as an EV leader, could see increased demand and a higher stock valuation.
While reaching $400 by year-end is ambitious, Tesla’s strong brand, innovative edge, and leadership under Elon Musk could make it achievable. That said, risks like market volatility and growing competition from other EV makers could pose challenges. If these five factors align, however, Tesla’s stock has a solid shot at hitting that target.
META -- Breakdown? Or Move Higher? Levels To Watch ForHello Traders!
Meta has broken down from its ascending trendline. This is bearish.
In addition price has formed a major Double Top pattern with Bearish Divergence.
Bearish Factors
1) Breakdown of ascending trendline
2) Double top
3) Bearish divergence
Two things need to happen if META is going to make a move higher...
1) Price needs to stay above "Support #1"
2) Price needs to break above the descending trendline (connecting the range highs)
IF price does breaks lower... where do we start looking for long positions?
- Support #2 is a great starting point, however if price makes it to support #2, then I could also see price trading down to fill the gap just below.
- This is where you could enter again to average down your position.
Thanks everyone and best of luck on your trading journey!
NETFLIX -- Price Signaled A Move Lower Prior To EarningsHello Traders!
The chart of NFLX is a great example of using clues to decipher a future move.
Prior to earnings we had major bearish indicators on the chart that hinted towards a move down on earnings.
1) Break below major trendline
2) Bear flag
These two signals by themselves are very bearish however the fact that these signals appeared coming into earnings was an even strong indicator of a potential for negative move.
Now that the upward trend is broken NFLX has a long way to fall before reaching the next key support level.
Thanks everyone and best of luck on your trading journey!
SPY What Next? SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 627.59
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 625.38
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
S&P 500: Buyers Are Still In Control! Continue To Look For LongsWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 21-25th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
S&P 500 (ES1!)
The Stock Indices are strong, and showing no signs of selling off. Buy it until there is a bearish BOS.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
SPY: Market of Sellers
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell SPY.
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SPY Reclaims Rising Wedge Support - Bear Trap or Breakout Setup?SPY dropped below its rising wedge earlier this week, but that move may have been a bear trap. Price quickly reversed, reclaiming the wedge trendline and closing just below a key Fibonacci level at 629.84.
Buyers stepped in aggressively near the 0.382 and 0.236 retracement zones, defending short-term support. The bounce came on increased volume, signaling strength behind the recovery. Momentum remains intact as long as SPY holds above 626.
Now, bulls need to confirm with a breakout above 629.84–631.96 to open the door to the next levels at 635.63 and 640.30. Failure to break through could lead to another rejection and revisit lower support zones.
Levels to watch:
Support: 626.64, 623.62, 619.60
Resistance: 629.84, 631.96, 635.63
SPY is at a decision point. Reclaiming wedge support is a bullish signal, but bulls need follow-through to avoid another fakeout in the opposite direction.
Risk off The cycle low is due 10/10 -20th The Bullish wave count is that we are ending wave 1 of 5 in super cycle blowoff wave 2 would drop in a ABC decline and drop back to .382 alt 50% of the whole rally from 4835 low . This is the bull wave count ! The bearish wave count is that we are ending the final 5th wave up from 2020 low march 23th see my work calling for a panic into 3/18/3/20 2020 the low was 3/23 20 into perfect math at 2191 as was the call for 3510 to 3490 low and the 4835 low all are in near perfect math . My worry for this oct 10 to the 20th Is I see a 1987 like decline taking out the 4835 in a wave E CRASH . Under all three counts I moved to a 110 % short. best of trades WAVETIMER
Earnings Heat Up - 6300 and 6200 SPX Key Levels RemainMarket Update
SPX Key Levels
-SPX poked 6300 Tuesday, Thursday, and poked higher Friday (but settled back to 6300)
-6200 support remains a key level
-6050/6000/5800 next floor levels, I'll be looking for dips
I can see the market slowly (and I mean SLOWLY) grinding higher but preparing for a
reasonable seasonal selloff through end of July into end of September window
July 28-August 1 is a monster week in the markets
-Megacap Earnings (MAG7 Tue/Wed/Thu)
-Wed July 30 - FOMC (Pause expected but Powell's Press Conference is important)
-Friday August 1 - Non-Farm Payroll, Tariff Deadline
I'm hitting fresh YTD highs so I'm not complaining about this melt-up and grind, I'm simply wanting to allocate positions and add to my positions at better levels and with a slightly
higher VIX to help take advantage of the expected move being greater than the actual move
Have a great weekend and thank you watching!!!
$TSLA Giant Wedging Pattern (VCP)NASDAQ:TSLA is in a giant 7 month wedging pattern. It can be seen as a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) as well. These types of patterns can break either way. However, in this case we have a rising 50 DMA (red). That suggests to me that this will break to the upside.
I already have a small position in TSLA and I will look to add if or when it breaks above the 50 DMA and again if or when it breaks above the upper downtrend line. If it breaks the lower line, I am out.
Be aware that Tesla reports earnings in 7 days, Wednesday, July 23rd, after the bell.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏢 U.S. Corp Buybacks Set to Propel Stocks
Citadel Securities expects U.S. companies to repurchase roughly $1 trillion of stock in 2025. With the blackout period ending in August, buybacks—historically strong in July, the stock market’s best month—could bolster valuations
⚖️ Fed Independence Debate Intensifies
President Trump’s continued criticism of Chair Powell has already weakened confidence in Federal Reserve autonomy. The fallout shows up in a weaker dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations—though stocks have remained resilient
🇺🇸 Immigration Rollback Sparks Economic Concern
The rescinding of Temporary Protected Status for ~900,000 immigrants could remove up to 1.1 million workers from the labor force. Analysts warn of potential stagflation risks, with GDP growth potentially down 0.3–0.4 percentage points and labor-market tightening ahead
💵 Massive T-Bill Issuance Incoming
Following the debt-ceiling deal, the Treasury plans over $1 trillion in T-bill issuance in the next 18 months. Money-market funds are expected to absorb much of it, influencing short-term rates and cash-market dynamics
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Friday, July 19:
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly figure on new unemployment filings—a real-time indicator of labor-market resilience.
8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June)
Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes; key for gauging housing-market health.
All Day Events:
Ongoing corporate buybacks entering open window
Treasury auctions and T-bill issuance updates
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #monetarypolicy #debt #housing #labor #technicalanalysis
Elliott Wave Analysis: SPY Poised To Extend Higher In Bullish SeElliott Wave sequence in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) suggest bullish sequence in progress started from 4.07.2025 low. It expects two or few more highs to extend the impulse sequence from April-2025, while dips remain above 6.23.2025 low. SPY ended the daily corrective pullback in 3 swings at 480 low on 4.07.2025 low from February-2025 peak. Above there, it favors upside in bullish impulse sequence as broke above February-2025 high. Currently, it favors wave 3 of (1) & expect one more push higher from 7.16.2025 low in to 630.31 – 651.1 area before correcting in wave 4. In 4-hour, it placed 1 at 596.05 high, 2 at 573.26 low as shallow connector & extend higher in 3. Within 3, it placed ((i)) at 606.40 high, ((ii)) at 591.89 low, ((iii)) at 627.97 high & ((iv)) at 618.05 low.
In 1-hour above ((ii)) low of 591.89 low, it ended (i) at 605.96 high, (ii) at 603.17 low, (iii) at 626.87 high as extended move, (iv) at 620 low & (v) as ((iii)) at 627.97 high. Wave ((iv)) ended in 3 swing pullback as shallow connector slightly below 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of ((iii)). Within ((iii)), it ended (a) at 619.8 low, (b) at 624.12 high & (c) at 618.05 low on 7.16.2025 low (this week). Above there, it favors rally in ((v)) of 3 targeting in to 630.31 – 651.1 area before correcting in 4. Within ((v)), it placed (i) at 624.73 high, (ii) at 623.08 low & favors upside in (iii) of ((v)). We like to buy the pullback in clear 3, 7 or 11 swings correction at extreme area in 4 and later in (2) pullback, once finished (1) in 5 swings.
COIN (Update) -- Potential Max Price TargetHello Traders!
Coin seems to potentially have a little bit more steam left. If it does make one more push... where will price go?
At $429.54 we have the All Time High for COIN.. interesting enough that price was hit on the first day of trading for COIN which adds to the significance of this price level. There is also a trendline connected from pivot to pivot. These two factors converge and create a significant level of resistance.
Most likely I will be entering a short position at this level.
Thanks everyone and best of luck on your trading journey!
TAP -- Breakout Attempt -- Target LevelsHello Traders!
The chart of TAP (Molson Beer co.) is currently flirting with a major resistance trendline. Now whether or not price can successfully seal the deal and make it too third base remains to be seen.
If price does breakout, watch for a potential retrace to the breakout trendline first, then we could see the larger move to resistance level #1.
If price gets rejected and fails to breakout we could see a move below support before it attempts to breakout again.
Thanks everyone and best of luck with your trading journey!
$ALAB Forming a Megaphone PatternNASDAQ:ALAB has seen a lot of volatility as of late. I took a position in it and was stopped out for a loss due to that volatility.
I may be too fixated on this name, but I want to get involved as I think it has a chance to run to previous highs. I thought it had formed a cup with handle pattern, and I got involved on Wed. June 18th only to get stopped on Monday, Jun 23rd. I have been watching it since.
Now it appears it is forming a megaphone pattern. These patterns usually resolve in the direction of the last trend. In this case that trend was up. I like too that the 50 DMA (red) is in an uptrend. I have an alert set on the upper trendline resistance area. Should that trigger, I will look for a good risk reward entry.
If you like this idea, please make it your own and follow your trading plan. Remember, it is your money at risk.
DELTA - Converging Levels Creates Huge Resistance - Retrace?Hello Traders!
Whichever Hedge Fund that is responsible for the recent price action in DELTA mustve been in a generous mood... because theyre giving us an excellent hint as to what price will likely do next.
And what hint might that be you ask...
1) Trendline (connecting the recent highs)
2) Gap Fill (Resistance)
Individually these factors are relatively strong, however when combined they essesntially create a strong barrier that will be very hard for price to break through. Think about it like a wall made from Captain Americas shield... now try and break through that.. aint gonna be easy.
So whats next for price? If I was a betting man (and I am, incase you were wondering) I would say theres a high probability that price is going to trade down from this resistance level then retrace to the gap fill below. From the gap fill level we will likely see a bounce.
Thanks, I hope you found this post educational or helpful and best of luck on your trading journey!