Exploring the Near-Term Risks for the Tether (USDT) PegTether isn't looking too hot right now. I haven't calibrated Cycles to work with stablecoins, but I'd assume that the seasonal current (purple) crossing the yearly current (fuchsia) is... problematic.
Maybe don't keep all your funds in $USDT.
The clustering of energy confirmations is also a very poor sign for $USDT. (Not enough historical data to say what comes after, though.)
Stablecoin
#USDT Dominance looking strong#USDT Dominance looking strong
#USDT DOMINANCE
Keep an eye here as we are in a very bullish pattern atm. Just a reminder that this is very bearish for BTC is USDT dominance increases and even more so for ALT's.
That being said it does mean if there is not a decrease in overall market cap then money is remaining in Crypto so essentially there will be a sentiment of waiting to buy the dip and not complete exodus from the Crypto market.
So this usually means short term pain, long term gain when it pumps.
Key Factors:
- Bullish descending wedge
- Testing upper trendline line
- Can argue a cup and handle formation appearing
Tether Dominance Aims Down At 7.12% (10% Drop)Yesterday Tether Dominance (USDT.D) closed below EMA10 and today we have a full bearish candle.
The drop is about to speed up.
We see EMA50 as the next support line at 7.94%, but looking back this line is always pierced and MA200 has been the main support.
MA200 is sitting at 7.12%, this is where we think stands the first/main support.
As Tether Dominance goes down, Bitcoin goes up.
We can see at least 1 week bearish, 7 days, to start...
As this move develop, we can gain more data and figure out for how much longer this correction will go.
Namaste.
MarketCap of Cryptocurrencies except stable coins (TOTAL-USD)ℹ️ This is the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, excluding major stable coins (USDT, USDC, BUSD, DAI, GUSD, PAX, SUSD, USDK, EURS).
🟢The chart indicates a possible bear trap.
However, to be confirmed, the index needs to break through the resistance shown in the blue region above to have an upward confirmation.
If that happens, the LS Volatility Index is expected to drop to zero, indicating an approximation to the 21 moving average.
🔴In a bad scenario, the marketcap can reach new lows, possibly reaching the next Fibonacci level.
In that case, the LS Volatility Index would rise to 100, indicating an even greater deviation from the 21 average.
Peg of Stable CoinsStablecoins are cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged, or tied, to that of another currency, commodity, or financial instrument.
Stablecoins aim to provide an alternative to the high volatility of the most popular cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), which has made crypto investments less suitable for common transactions.
(Investopedia)
This graph shows the pegged value of the main stable coins.
Ideally, the value should be 1:1.
In this crash scenario, I will stay alert on these values.
Stable Coins: Amount of Assets Held by WhalesThis graph shows the ranking of stable coins, according to the Amount of Assets Held by Whales (some stable coins don't have this information here).
Since May 02, 2022, BUSD has surpassed USDC in this indicator.
USDT remains relatively stable, and DAI was below $2 billion.
The PEG of these stable coins can be seen in this other analysis:
🔥THIS PATTERN INDICATES THE BULL MARKET WITH 99% PROBABILITY!🔥 Hi friends! I think not a lot of experts told you about this pattern, so support this educational idea with your BOOST🚀 to make it more visible for many traders!
Today I explain you the VERY USEFUL method, which help you to identify the beginning of the bull market with the 99% probability. There is the point where you can open the biggest long trades and get the BIGGEST profit without much effort.
✅HOW TO IDENTIFY THE BULL MARKET BEGINNING WITH 99% PROBABILITY?
📊 The instrtuments that we need:
1. Tether (USDT) capitalization growth after the accumulation.
2. Bitcoin price with new Higher Highs (HH).
Look at the USDT cycles. As a rule, the growth of its capitalization coincides with the beginning of a STRONG growth of BTC.
The fall of Bitocoin and entire crypto market coincides with the consolidation of the USDT capitalization.
🚩 The simple formulas:
1. growth of USDT cap = growth of Bitcoin
2. consolidation of the USDT cap = Bitcoin fall
Additionally, I recommend you to wait until the BTC price make Higher highs (yellow line):
1. $4000 - 2019
2. $10200 - 2020
3. $24200 - 2022-2023(?)
As you can see, the most strongest growth beginning with the new HH on BTC chart.
So now you have TWO clear preconditions to open a long trade on BTC and any other crypto.
✅WHY IS THIS PATTERN SO SUCCESSFUL?
🔥 First of all , large players who have cash and do not have crypto want to quickly enter the market, but need a large number of stablecoins. The largest in terms of capitalization and the most liquid of all stablecoins is still Tether, so large players apply to this company and make an exchange from their cash to new printed USDT.
🔥 Secondly , a large number of beginners come to the market at the moments of growth, which also have a large amount of cash, but do not have crypto dollars.
These 2 cases force Tether to "print" more stablecoins.
🚩 The growth of Tether's capitalization stops at the very BTC ATH, when the demand for stablecoins falls. Despite the fact that the majority of altcoins will gain 300-400% for some time, there is no longer a need for new stablecoins. The bear market begins.
✅ HOW TO USE THIS PATTERN IN YOU TRADING STRATEGY?
LONG. With the update of Bicoin's local highs (now 24-25 thousand dollars) and the growth of Tether's capitalization, there is a chance to buy the crypto before the start of the "parabolic growth".
The further decision is up to you:
🔥 buy altcoins with a possible profit of up to 500-2000%, but with a higher risk
🔥 buy Bitcoin with a possible profit of 200-500%, but with less risk
🔥 or at least close your short trades :)
SHORT. The most dangerous signal for crypto is when the USDT cap not grow. You can use this "signal" with others to confirm your short ideas. For example, false breakout of the ATH at 69k back at 2021. After this, the price of BTC fall for -70-75%.
✅ Traders, Let me know if this idea was useful for you! Is it worth continuing to write such educational ideas? It is very important for me!
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
TRX Year-Long Triangle Concluding (Elliott Wave/Neowave)TRX has been trading in a relatively tight range since last year, that range is coming to a point now and it seems like, based on EW structure, that this triangle should break up within the next few weeks. If it doesn't break up in the next few weeks then we'll probably see it continue to consolidate into the tip of the triangle until the end of the year, before breaking up.
If this is the end of a pattern which began in 2018, as shown on my chart, we should see a explosive and near vertical move out of this range. Typically, when volatility reaches a very low point, it is often followed by a massive increase in volatility. This combined with USDD potentially burning a huge amount of the supply of TRX in the future could lead to prices in the double or even triple digits over the next year.
Bitcoin vs Tether 🥷⚔️Bitcoin laid over top of the Tether-USDT Market Cap Dominance Chart.
Pretty self explanatory as they have an inverse relationship up to this point.
USDT peaks when Bitcoin is at or near a bottom.
As USDT Cap works it's way down the money thats sitting Stable Coins starts moving back into Bitcoin.
Once Bitcoin makes a top, USDT is close or near a bottom. As traders start to sell the USDT Dominance starts to climb.
USTC/BUSDwe did together more than 3x before and hit our Target . FA : ON-CHAIN coming for Terra Stablecoin soon today or tomorrow . check link in 18 sep twitter.com
TA : Super Bullish . moon coming . Target is on the chart
USDT warn! only the tokens on the PoS network will be redeemableGrayscale warning ahead of the Ethereum Merge: “issuers like Tether and CirclePay have stated that post-fork, only the tokens on the PoS (proof of stake) network will be redeemable”, so if the PoS-based Ethereum fork goes “live with a parallel DeFi ecosystem, collateralized with unredeemable stablecoins, users and smart contracts may attempt to liquidate positions on the new chain, contributing to sell pressure on the new token.”
The worst case scenario of the Merge is the collapse of Ethereum based stablecoins, so be careful with those.
BTC.D+Stablecoin DominanceI think the days of just looking at BTC dominance are nearing its' end now that we have more stable (generally) crypto options to "cash out" to. Before USDT/USDC, bitcoin was the safest to cash out to. I calculated dominance of top 50 overall market cap stablecoins BUSD, USDC, USDT and DAI and then added BTC.D. This way we can paint a picture of overall market risk on vs off, removing the impact trading between BTC and stablecoins has on BTC.D alone.
Equation plugged into TradingView: BTC.D+(GLASSNODE:BUSD_MARKETCAP+GLASSNODE:USDT_MARKETCAP+GLASSNODE:USDC_MARKETCAP+CRYPTOCAP:DAI)/CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL*100
Any comments, questions/concerns are more than welcome!
Stablecoin DominanceStablecoin Dominance is a measure of crypto market sentiment. It is calculated as the percentage of the total crypto market cap that is comprised of stablecoins. A decreasing value signals a risk-on market while an increasing value is a sign of risk-off conditions. USDT, USDC, BUSD, and DAI are the stablecoins selected for the calculation.
#Stable Dominance giving us a hint for a green weekend!!USDT Dominance is in play.
Testing the blue EMA right now after the breakdown.Although this is a 4 hour chart but most of the people trade on leverage so keep in mind an hourly full candle close above the 6.28% followed by a confirmation candle would mean I will close my long positions manually and this chart will be invalidated.
Unlikely, but you never know. Always be prepared for the worst.
I am holding Long positions right now.
Let me know what you think. Do hit the like button and share your views in the comment section.
Thank you
#PEACE
August 1 BTCUSD BingX Chart Analysis and Today's Headline BingX’s Bitcoin Chart
According to Glassnode, the number of addresses holding 1+ Bitcoin just reached an ATH of 890,993. Bitcoin is down 1.32% over the last 24 hours and fell to an intraday low of $23,238.04. The largest cryptocurrency failed to sustain above the $24,000 price level during the weekend, suggesting the sellers remain active at this level. If the BTC/USDT pair breaks and closes above $24,000, the pair could rally to $28,000. Conversely, if the Bears pull the price below the 20-day exponential moving (EMA) ($22,521), the pair could find support around the 50-day moving average (MA) ($21,985).
Today’s Cryptocurrency Headline
Aave DAO Approves Launch of Algorithmic Stablecoin GHO
DeFi protocol Aave’s proposal for the creation of the algorithmic stablecoin GHO has been approved by the Aave DAO, with an approval rate of 99.99% (501,000 AAVE). Aave will enable the creation of GHO stablecoins through an Aave improvement protocol (AIP), with the Aave DAO in charge of supervising the stablecoin’s distribution once its creation has been vetted. Users looking to mint GHO will deposit cryptocurrencies accepted by Aave as collateral. Apart from acting as collateral, these deposits will also earn yield on Aave. The lending protocol will also charge interest on loans taken out in GHO, with payments going back to the Aave DAO.
Disclaimer: BingX does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company. BingX is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in the article.
USDT DOMINANCE chart says a lot about BTC & altcoinsThis chart is self-explanatory.
Pls note though that a possible H&S pattern has just been prevented with money moving back into USDT, thus delaying BTC rally.
Not trading advice
Long or Short? Update for Leverage traders...USDT Dominance is at a decisive point. Multiple
Rejection candles will lead to a rally across the market.
BTC could hit $23k+ and alts will follow, probably a green week.
However, a close above the resistance will lead to a correction.
Important area, stay vigilant.
CONCLUSION:- Close above 7.28% will trigger short entries across the market.
Close below 7.23% enter long position with SL.
Let me know what you think in the comment section and hit the like button if you find this update helpful.
DYOR
Thank you
#PEACE
Tether Dominance Index Top PatternWe have this triangle on the chart which is a "top pattern"; when you see this pattern or an inverted cup you have high probability of dealing with a top.
If prices topped, then we drop.
Just a quick update to let you know that we continue bearish on USDT.D.
The indicators are now also turning bearish, MACD and RSI.
It is likely to speed up, fast, if/when support breaks.
Namaste.
7 billion Tether (USDT) redeemed as stablecoin supply decreasesFollowing the cryptocurrency market turmoil, the total supply of stablecoins has fallen quite significantly. This reportedly marks Q2 of 2022 as the first time in crypto history where the overall supply of stablecoins has decreased.
Over the past month, the total supply of all stablecoins combined declined by more than 10 billion (equally +$10 billion), even when excluding the failed TerraUSD. According to Coinmetrics, the tokens were directly redeemed by the holders through the treasuries of major issuers.
The largest stablecoin issuer Tether Inc. recorded the most redemption of all centralized stablecoins, as USDT supply dropped by approximately seven billion on Ethereum, Omni Layer Protocol, and Tron Network. The decentralized stablecoin DAI dropped by over 40%, mostly due to liquidations of debt positions.
SELL TRX SUPPORTTRX has the largest open interest in exchages meaning a lot of positions are being opened! Justin sun is afraid of losing the USDD stability like the UST nightmare. In these current market conditions I won't long the support as fundamentals are agains me.
Starting from New york open, markets will be very volatile because of fear from fed interest rate decision with the leaked data indicating a 75bps hike!
TRON Deploys $700 Mln To Support USDD StablecoinDespite initially outperforming amid the recent crash, TRON (TRX) prices have dropped by over 16% in the last 24 hours. In order to defend and build support, Justin Sun, TRON head has planned to deploy over $2 billion.
With the USDD stablecoin briefly losing its peg, Tron deployed $700 million to support the stablecoin and maintain redemptions.
Justin Sun in a Twitter post highlighted that the funding rate of shorting TRX token on the world’s biggest crypto trading platform, Binance has redhead 500% ARP. The announced amount will help them to fight it. He added this situation won’t last for even 24 hours.
The TRON DAO informed that to counter the current situation they have received 700 million USDC. This amount will be used to defend the USDD peg. It added that its collateralization rate is nearly 300%. In another update, it mentioned that DAO has added 100 million USDC to the Binance to buy more TRX.
WAVES Makes Waves. Crypto's "Decoupling" ContinuesAfter Friday's "decoupling" event, the markets have mostly stayed flat (it feels like there's a lot of confusion and uncertainty in the market as a whole right now) with a few exceptions - WAVES seems to be the big winner today, followed by AXS (Axie Infinity) and ADA (Cardano). XTZ (Tezos) had a very good week this week but at least for today, it seems to be in the red.
With altcoins normally moving in parallel to each other, these trends are interesting to look at because it seems like after Friday each coin seems to have suddenly gained independence as we start to see less and less parallel motion over time. Time will tell if this "decoupling" trend continues - but so far, it seems to be the case.
By the way, if you invested in LUNA right at its rock-bottom a few days ago you would have made a 5.9 MILLION % return today. High risk, high reward. 😂 I don't recommend putting your life savings into bets like these but there is something to the idea of supporting a project during its struggles since that's often how investors make their biggest returns.
