Still holding EURUSD sells - Who's trusting my analyse ?EURUSD could likely maintain a slightly bearish bias for the week, driven by several key fundamental and market conditions:
1. Diverging Monetary Policies: The European Central Bank (ECB) recently signaled a more cautious tone about future rate hikes, especially after the recent data showed persistent economic weakness in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a more hawkish stance. Even if the Fed pauses rate hikes, its tight policy stance contrasts with the ECB's relatively dovish tone, favoring the USD.
2. Economic Data Divergence: The Eurozone's economic data continues to show signs of a slowdown, with weak industrial production and lower consumer confidence weighing on the euro. On the other hand, U.S. economic data, particularly strong retail sales and a resilient labor market, continue to support the dollar, increasing the likelihood of USD strength relative to the euro.
3. Inflation Concerns: Inflation in the Eurozone remains sticky but below the ECB’s comfort level, while the U.S. core inflation figures have remained relatively elevated. Persistent inflation in the U.S. adds to the case for a stronger USD as it keeps the Fed in a hawkish posture.
4. Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion: Global economic uncertainties, including concerns over China's economy and geopolitical risks, may increase demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the euro.
In conclusion, given the macroeconomic factors and the current positioning of central banks, EURUSD is likely to remain under mild bearish pressure throughout the week unless there is a significant shift in sentiment or unexpected data releases.
