DOW JONES Double MA50 Support Zone coming to the rescue?Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and following the recent High, the price started to pull-back ahead of this week's major macroeconomic events.
By doing so, it has approached the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the first line of Support inside this pattern. The previous (Higher) Low of the Channel Up was priced on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and the 2 form the strongest medium-term Support Zone at the moment.
With even the 4H RSI fractals identical, the current price action resembles the June 12 one, post 1D MA50 Low (May 23). Even if the 4H MA50 breaks, the trend will remain bullish unless it closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (which would also be an invalidation of the Channel Up).
The most common rise on a Bullish Leg on this pattern has been +9.00%. As a result, our Target is 47200 as we enter September.
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S&P500 Can the 4H MA50 save the day again?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a short-term pull-back following the new All Time High (ATH) on August 15 of the 3-month Channel Up. It is just above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the most common level of Support throughout this pattern, before the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which formed its last Higher Low.
As a result, as long as it holds, it is more likely to see a continuation of the Bullish Leg that started on the 4H MA200 bounce (August 01). The previous Bullish Leg peaked on a +8.80% rise, so that gives us a medium-term Target of 6750.
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NASDAQ testing its 4H MA50. Will it offer Support?Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since May 11 and is approaching its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) today following a Wednesday initiated pull-back.
Technically this is so far a normal correction for this pattern, which offers a short-term buy signal as the 3 times during those 4 months that it broke convincingly, it rebounded on or close to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, if the 4H MA50 offers a rebound, we could see a +9.80% rebound from the 4H MA200, the minimum that this Channel Up has delivered upon a Bullish Leg. That gives a Target of 24800.
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DOW JONES Holding the 1W MA50 can push it to 50900.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a massive 3-year Channel Up (almost) and following the April 07 2025 rebound on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), it's been unfolding the new Bullish Leg.
Having established also the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support in recent weeks, the pattern should now aim for its new Higher High long-term. Every time the index broke and stayed above its 1W MA50 during both previous Bullish Legs, a strong sustainable rally took place.
Given the similarities between their 1W MACD sequences as well as the fact that +39.51% has been a common long-term rise, we expect Dow to top next around 50900.
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NASDAQ eyes 24300 as the Channel Up extends.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up since the May 12 candle. Throughout the whole time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been in firm Support and right now the pattern is unfolding its latest Bullish Leg.
The last two rose by +6.67%, so that gives us a Target of 24300 by the end of the month.
Notice also that the 1D MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross. The previous one was a strong buy signal during the most recent Bullish Leg.
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S&P500 Channel Up going straight to 6670.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up since the May 12 candle. All of this time, it has been supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and as long as it holds, the new Bullish Leg is expected.
The last two rose by +7.06%, and ahead of a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, that gives us a medium-term Target of 6670.
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DOW JONES Channel Up on its strongest Support.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 25 Low and right now it is consolidating straight after a direct contact and bounce on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Given that this also took place at the bottom of the Channel Up, it is a technical Higher Low formation, thus the strongest Support level possible.
With the 1D RSI also rebounding around the same level as the previous Higher Low, we expect the next technical Bullish Leg of the Channel Up to begin. The previous two rose by at least +7.00%, so the minimum Target we are looking for on the short-term is 46350.
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NASDAQ Channel Up to be rejected soon.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the start of the month. The primary Support level has been the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which hasn't closed a 4H candle below it since July 14.
Right now the index is on its latest Bullish Leg, which can technically extend by +2.35% (max such Leg within the Channel Up).
We expect a rejection targeting the 4H MA50 again at 23200, which would represent a -1.25% decline, the weakest such Bearish Leg we had within the Channel Up.
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S&P500 This is why every CORRECTION is a GIFT.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been steadily rising since the April bottom to new All Time Highs (ATH). On the grand 100 year scale, the February - March tariff fueled correction, has been nothing significant. The last true technical correction has been the 2022 Inflation Crisis because it touched, and instantly rebounded on, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line).
This is not the first time we bring forward our multi-decade perspective on stock and in particular this chart. But it serves well, keeping us into the meaningful long-term outlook of the market. This suggests that since the Great Depression and the first signs of recovery after the 1935 - 1941 Bear Cycle, the market has entered a multi-decade Channel Up, which is divided into long-term aggressive expansion periods (Bull Cycles) and shorter term depressions (Bear Cycles).
During a Bull Cycle, every test of the 1M MA50 is a instant cyclical buy opportunity and in fact that isn't presented very often. During a Bear Cycle, the market makes an initial aggressive correction below the 1M MA50, turns increasingly volatile for 5-7 years, trading sideways within the Channel Up with its second peak resulting into a 2nd correction that eventually breaks below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
That is what we call a 'generational buy opportunity' as in the past 80 years, it has only been taken place 2 times.
Right now (again this is not something we mention for the first time), the market is at the start of the A.I. Bubble, with incredibly strong similarities with the Internet Bubble of the 1990s.
In fact, relative to the Internet Bubble, it appears that we are on a stage similar to 1993 - 1994, before the market turned parabolic to the eventual Dotcom Bust of 2000.
As a result, from a technical perspective, every 'small' correction such as the one we had this year, is a blessing in disguise (buy opportunity). As the index grew by 5 times during the Internet Bubble (300 to 1500), it is also very possible to see it approach this feat going from roughly 3500 (late 2022) to 14000 (by late 2032) and touch the top of the multi-decade Channel Up.
Are you willing to miss out on this generational wealth creation opportunity?
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DOW JONES Strong rebound on its 4H MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) is having a strong rebound exactly on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is taking place just after the price broke above the Bull Flag that served as the accumulation pattern following the previous Channel Up.
This is a repetitive pattern and most likely we will now see the new Channel Up starting. The technical Target on such formations is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 48000.
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S&P500 Critical short-term crossroads.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since for the entirety of July and right now is ahead of important crossroads. It either breaks out above the pattern or pulls back to price a new Higher Low.
Based on the 4H CCI and the similarities with the June 24 - 25 consolidation, there are higher probabilities to break upwards. That fractal reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension after it broke out. We will wait for confirmation and if it's delivered, we will buy the break-out and target 6460 (just below Fib 2.0 ext).
Until then, being so close to the Channel Up top, makes a solid short opportunity targeting a Higher Low (bottom). The previous one was priced exactly on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) so that's our target or 6250 if it comes earlier.
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NASDAQ Rebounding on its 1H MA50.Nasdaq (NDX) rebounded today on its 1H MA50 (blue trend-line), third time since Friday's and Thursday's bounce. A Channel Up is emerging and based on the 4H RSI it is a medium-term bullish reversal off the Pivot trend-line, similar to June 20 - 30.
As you can see, that Channel Up targeted the 2.618 Fibonacci extension before breaking below the 1H MA50 to start a lengthy consolidation. Based on that, we are targeting 23650 (Fib 2.618 ext) on the short-term.
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DOW JONES formed 1st 1D Golden Cross since 2022!Dow Jones (DJIA) completed on Monday its 1st Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame since December 12 2022! This powerful bullish pattern comes with the price close to its All Time High (ATH).
Being inside almost a 3-year Channel Up, the current rise is the pattern's latest Bullish Leg following the April 07 2025 bottom (Higher Low). Both previous Bullish Legs rose by +39.96% before forming a Higher High.
Based on the Fibonacci retracement levels, last time the previous Bullish Leg was within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci Zone, it formed a Re-accumulation Phase for 3 months. As a result, we shouldn't dismiss the fact of trading sideways for the rest of the Summer and then picking up the pace. Our end-of-year Target remains 50000.
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S&P500 Accumulation almost over. New rally begins.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up pattern, within which, it's been replicating almost the same structure. This involves an aggressive Bullish Leg Phase (dotted Channel Up), followed by a correction/ Accumulation Phase (blue Channels), which eventually leads to the new Bullish Leg.
The 1D RSI fractals among those patterns are similar and right now it seems that we are about to complete the latest Accumulation Phase. Having completed a 1D Golden Cross 2 weeks ago, the time-frame looks more bullish than ever and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, we expect at least a +5.68% rise (the minimum of the previous Bullish Legs), targeting 6550.
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NASDAQ Is looking for a massive break-out to 24000!Nasdaq (NDX) is most likely taking advantage of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Support and after hitting it, it appears that the price will look for a way above the Parabola.
This might be similar to what took place after the May 07 test of the 4H MA50. The price broke above that parabolic pattern and peaked on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are looking for 24000 as a potential Target in the next 2 weeks.
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DOW JONES repeating May's pattern.Dow Jones (DJI) has been testing its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since yesterday, following 2 straight weeks of trading strongly above it.
If it holds and rebounds, the pattern will draw even more similarities with May's Channel Up, which after the May 06 Low, it resumed the uptrend to peak on a +9.27% rise from the bottom, before breaking below the 4H MA50.
Since the current rise is -0.70% weaker (+4.94% against +5.66%) from May's fractal, we can assume that as long as the 4H MA50 holds, we can expect a peak at 46400.
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S&P500 Strong Buy Signal flashed for the 3rd time in 2 years!The S&500 index (SPX) is comfortably trading above its previous All Time High (ATH) and shows no signs of stopping here. Coming off a 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross, we expect the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to turn now into the first long-term Support going towards the end of the year.
The last 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross (December 15 2023) was nothing but a bullish continuation signal, which extended the uptrend all the way to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, before a pull-back test of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again.
The 1W RSI is now on the same level (63.30) it was then. In fact it is also on the same level it was on June 05 2023, which was another such bullish continuation signal that peaked on the 2.0 Fib ext.
This suggests that we have a rare long-term Buy Signal in our hands, only the 3rd time in 2 years that has emerged. Based on that, we should be expecting to see 7600 as the next Target before it hits the 2.0 Fib ext and pulls back to the 1D MA100 again and there is certainly enough time to do this by the end of the year, assuming the macroeconomic environment favors (trade deals, potential Fed Rate cuts etc).
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NASDAQ going to 23500 by August.Nasdaq (NDX) is trading above the previous All Time High (ATH) Resistance, staging a very structured uptrend that has recently gotten out of a 1D Golden Cross.
As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) continues to support, we might get a repeat of the November - December 2024 rally that peaked on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level from he August 2024 Low.
That whole July - October 2024 pattern is quite similar to the February - June 2025 of today. A quick pull-back is possible at this stage but by the end of August, we expect the index to test at least the 23500 level.
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DOW JONES This is how it hits 50000 by the end of the year.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 03 2022 market bottom and since the April 07 2025 Low, it's been unfolding the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
Ahead of an emerging 1D Golden Cross, the first since December 13 2022, the price action looks more bullish than ever strongly supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
In fact, it is not that different from the fractal of that last 1D Golden Cross, which traded inside a neckline before the Bullish Leg broke upwards and completed eventually a +39.96% rise.
We expect a 50000 test towards the end of the year at the top of the Channel Up, which is still marginally below the tolerance levels of a +39.36% rise.
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S&P500 Bullish Leg not over yet.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the May 07 Low and is currently unfolding the latest Bullish Leg.
As you can see, it is far from having topped, not just by a plain trend-line (Higher Highs) perspective but also based on the Fibonacci and % rise terms relative to the previous Bullish Leg.
That peaked after a +7.10% rise, a little above the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, a 6330 Target on the short-term is more than fitting.
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NASDAQ Possible short-term pull-back.Last time we analyzed Nasdaq (NDX) was a week ago (June 23, see chart below), giving a comfortable buy signal as the price was rebounding at the bottom of the 6-week Channel Up:
The price hit our 22300 Target and has now touched the top of the Channel Up. Based on the 4H RSI, it resembles the May 15 price action, which soon after pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
It is possible to see such relief profit taking on the short-term and a test of 22200 (Fib 0.382).
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DAX Inverse Head and Shoulders target 24600!DAX (DE40) is about to complete an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, with the price currently stuck in range within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
A 4H candle closing above the 4H MA200, confirms the IH&S pattern and the bullish break-out technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, currently a little above 24600. On top of that, the break-out may be accompanied by a 1D MAD Bullish Cross, further confirmation of the bullish sentiment.
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S&P500 1D Golden Cross, middle of 3y Channel, much upside to go!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the final sell-off of the 2022 Inflation Crisis. The only time this pattern broke was for 4 days during the bottom formation (April 2025) of the recent Trade War.
Ahead of the first 1D Golden Cross since January 26 2023, the market looks more bullish than ever as it is trading within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci range of this Channel Up, suggesting that there is considerable upside before it tops.
The last Bullish Leg that started on the Channel Up bottom and peaked before a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test grew by +28.30%. Expecting a repeat of that, we may see the price targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 6550 before the next 1D MA50 pull-back.
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