+177% in last hour $1.33 to $3.69 $NXTTThis is what I mean when I say Power Hour 🚀 NASDAQ:NXTT
The move triggered exactly at 15:00 and went into power vertical
Can't wait for market to open next week, hot summer coming 🤑
Stocks!
SPX vs VIX: Is this a sign of a bullish market?VIX has seen a strong decline in the past 2 months following the massive surge of Feb-March due to the Tariff War. In contrast, the S&P500 rose massively to almost its ATH, which is a natural response as the two assets are negatively correlated. This VIX pattern has been seen during every major market bottom in the past 15 years, the strongest of which was the 2020 COVID crash. This is a sign of a very bullish market, TP = 6,800 by the end of the year.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
MICROSOFT: 1D Golden Cross to slingshot it to $590MSFT turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.199, MACD = 13.580, ADX = 52.584), extending the rise to a new ATH today, having formed a 1D Golden Cross on June 9th. That was the first 1D Golden Cross since March 20th 2023, which validated a bullish extenstion to +71.50% from the bottom. Since the long term Channel Up has already started its new bullish wave, we are expecting the uptrend to continue up to +71.50% at least. Go long, TP = $590.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRCL LOOKS OVERBOUGHTAs you can see after a good ride from 102 to 234 now the stock looks overbought. and on shorter time frames the price action shows a classic pattern of double top and breaking the previous support. simply if the stock closes 15 m candle below the support you might see a short retest to the support from downside that is a good point to short.
AMAZON Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AMAZON made a retest
Of the horizontal resistance
Around 219$ and the stock
Is already making a local
Bearish pullback so a further
Bearish correction
Is to be expected
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Warns on Tariffs
Fed kept interest rates steady on June 19, cautioning that tariffs could stoke inflation and slow growth. Inflation projections were raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while growth estimates were revised lower to 1.4%
🌍 Middle East Risk Drags Markets
Global stocks fell and safe-haven assets surged after U.S. futures weakened amid heightened tensions in the Israel–Iran conflict. Yields were mixed: gold weakened and bonds gained, while oil held steady near seven-week highs
📈 Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Despite safe-haven demand, U.S. 10‑year yields ticked up as markets absorbed the Fed’s updated rate outlook. The yield curve remains elevated ahead of next week’s $38 bn auction of long-dated notes
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 20:
(No major U.S. economic reports)
Markets will be driven by Fed commentary follow-ups and geopolitical headlines over the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #fixedincome #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
NASDAQ: Huge pivot can catapult it if broken.Nasdaq has turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.712, MACD = 377..560, ADX = 20.644) as it has been struggling to cross above a hidden trendline, the Pivot P1 that was at the start of this Bull Cycle a support and after the trade war acts now as a resistance. If broken, we anticipate a +27.84% rise at least (TP = 28,440), which may very well be an end of year target.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
COINBASE: Is it a guide on how to trade PEPE??Coinbase saw a massive surge yesterday as the Senate cleared the path for stablecoin regulation. This turned its 1D technical outlook almost overbought (RSI = 68.001, MACD = 11.870, ADX = 26.090). Our TP = 348.50 on COIN remains but oddly enough, we see a stronger than expected correlation with PEPE. Since it is now lagging after the Senate decision, this may be a great time to buy PEPE as this pattern shows that soon it will follow Coinbase upwards anf they will converge.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Another Banger $2.82 to $13.10 with 364% total move $APVOCatching just a piece of this kind of move pays a lot when moves are 300%+
Sitting at +72% realized gain over the past 3 days since the week started, from just 5 trades!
More to come this market is awesome
NASDAQ:APVO
Apple Near Key Support — Long Setup DevelopingIntroduction:
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is approaching a critical support zone that has consistently held over the past two months. As price retraces toward this level, it presents a potential long opportunity for traders looking to position ahead of the next bullish leg.
Technical Setup:
Support Zone: $193 – $196
This area has acted as a strong demand zone, providing multiple bounce points since April.
Price is now pulling back into this region, offering a potential entry for a long trade.
Trade Idea:
Entry: $193 – $196 (on confirmation of support holding)
Take Profit Targets:
First Target: $210 – $215
Second Target: $225 – $233
Stop Loss: Just below $184 (to protect against a breakdown from support)
#AAPL #Apple #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #SupportZone #LongSetup #TradingStrategy #NASDAQ #TechStocks #RiskReward
Coinbase Shares Rise Following Stablecoin Legislation ApprovalCoinbase (COIN) Shares Rise Following Stablecoin Legislation Approval
Shares in Coinbase Global (COIN) surged by 11% yesterday, making the company the top performer in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).
The sharp rise was driven by news that the US Senate has approved the GENIUS stablecoin bill, which sets out a regulatory framework for the use of stablecoins — crypto assets whose value is pegged to another currency or financial instrument, such as the US dollar.
The bill (which still requires approval from the House of Representatives) would pave the way for banks, fintech companies, and other financial market participants to use stablecoins. This development acted as a strong bullish catalyst for COIN shares.
Technical Analysis of Coinbase (COIN) Share Price Chart
In our previous analysis of the COIN share price chart, we:
→ identified an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ suggested that the COIN share price could rise towards the psychological level of $300.
That projection has played out — the price is now very close to the $300 mark. So, what comes next?
In a bold, optimistic scenario, buyers may hope for a continuation of the rally, with the share price pushing towards the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel, especially following the recent news. In the medium term, the blue ascending channel may remain relevant, given the strong signal of improved cryptocurrency regulation in the US legislative framework.
However, we also note some vulnerability to a pullback, as:
→ the $300 level may act as significant resistance;
→ the price is approaching the upper boundary of the blue channel, which also shows resistance characteristics;
→ once the initial wave of positive sentiment fades, some investors may look to take profits, especially given the more than 20% rise in Coinbase (COIN) shares since the beginning of the month.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
What Is T-Distribution in Trading? What Is T-Distribution in Trading?
In the financial markets, understanding T-distribution in probability is a valuable skill. This statistical concept, crucial for small sample sizes, offers insights into market trends and risks. By grasping T-distribution, traders gain a powerful tool for evaluating strategies, risks, and portfolios. Let's delve into what T-distribution is and how it's effectively used in the realm of trading.
Understanding T-Distribution
The T-distribution in probability distribution plays a crucial role in trading, especially in situations where sample sizes are small. William Sealy Gosset first introduced it under the pseudonym "Student". This distribution resembles the normal distribution with its bell-shaped curve but has thicker tails, meaning it predicts more outcomes in the extreme ends than a normal distribution would.
A key element of T-distribution is the concept of 'degrees of freedom', which essentially refers to the number of values in a calculation that are free to vary. It's usually the sample size minus one.
The degrees of freedom affect the shape of the T-distribution; with fewer degrees of freedom, the distribution has heavier tails. As the degrees of freedom increase, the distribution starts to resemble the normal distribution more closely. This is particularly significant in trading when dealing with small data sets, where the T-distribution provides a more accurate estimation of probability and risk than the normal distribution.
T-Distribution vs Normal Distribution
T-distribution and normal distribution are foundational in statistical analysis, yet they serve different purposes. While both exhibit a bell-shaped curve, the T-distribution has thicker tails, implying a higher probability of extreme values. This makes it more suitable for small sample sizes or when the standard deviation is unknown.
In contrast, the normal distribution, with its thinner tails, is ideal for larger sample sets where the standard deviation is known. Traders often use T-distribution for more accurate analysis in small-scale or uncertain data scenarios, while normal distribution is preferred for larger, more stable datasets, where extreme outcomes are less likely.
Application in Trading
In trading, T-distribution is a valuable tool for analysing financial data. It is primarily used in constructing confidence intervals and conducting hypothesis testing, which are essential for making informed trading decisions.
For instance, a trader might use T-distribution to test the effectiveness of a new trading strategy. Suppose a trader has developed a strategy using the technical analysis tools and wants to understand its potential effectiveness compared to the general market performance. They would collect a sample of returns from this strategy over a period, say, 30 days. Given the small sample size, using T-distribution is appropriate here.
The trader would then calculate the mean return of this sample and use T-distribution to create a confidence interval. This interval would provide a range within which the true mean return of the strategy is likely to lie, with a certain level of confidence. If this confidence interval shows a higher mean return than the market average, the trader might conclude that the strategy is potentially effective. However, it's important to note that this is an estimation and not a guarantee of future performance.
How to Plug Probability and Normal Distribution in Your T-Calculation
To use a T-calculator for integrating probability and normal distribution, follow these steps:
- Input Degrees of Freedom: For T-distribution, calculate the degrees of freedom (sample size minus one).
- Convert Z-Score to T-Value: If using normal distribution data, convert the Z-score (standard deviation units from the mean in a normal distribution) to a T-value using the formula: T = Z * (sqrt(n)), where 'n' is the sample size.
- Enter T-Value: Input this T-value into the calculator.
- Calculate Probability: The calculator will then output the probability, providing a statistical basis for trading decisions based on the T-distribution.
Limitations and Considerations of T-Distribution
While T-distribution is a powerful tool in trading analysis, it's important to recognise its limitations and considerations:
- Sample Size Sensitivity: T-distribution is most effective with small sample sizes. As the sample size increases, it converges to a normal distribution, reducing its distinct utility.
- Assumption of Normality: T-distribution assumes that the underlying data is approximately normally distributed. This may not hold true for all financial data sets, especially those with significant skewness or kurtosis.
- Degrees of Freedom Complications: Misestimating degrees of freedom can lead to inaccurate results. It's crucial to calculate this correctly based on the sample data.
- Outlier Sensitivity: T-distribution can be overly sensitive to outliers in the data, which can skew results.
Advanced Applications of T-Distribution in Trading
T-distribution extends beyond basic trading applications, playing a role in advanced financial analyses:
- Risk Modelling: Utilised in constructing sophisticated risk models, helping traders assess the probability of extreme losses.
- Algorithmic Trading: Integral in developing complex algorithms.
- Portfolio Optimisation: Assists in optimising portfolios by estimating returns and risks of various assets.
- Market Research: Used in advanced market research methodologies to analyse small sample behavioural studies.
The Bottom Line
The T-distribution is a powerful tool, offering nuanced insights in scenarios involving small sample sizes or uncertain standard deviations. Its ability to accommodate real-world data's quirks makes it invaluable for various trading applications, from strategy testing to risk assessment. However, understanding its limitations and proper application is crucial for accurate analysis.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DG Trading Setup: Capitalizing on RangeDollar General has experienced a stabilization phase following its Q1 2025 results, with same-store sales increasing 2.4% and revenue growing 5.3% to $10.4 billion. The company has regained traction in the discount retail space, mitigating previous challenges related to shrink and operational inefficiencies.
Institutional Flow & Market Positioning
Recent institutional flow highlights large orders in DG’s 115 call and 110 put, signaling either:
- A range-bound setup, where smart money expects the stock to stay between $110-$115 in the near term.
- Potential volatility, with institutions hedging both directions ahead of an unexpected move.
Considering the ATR (18) and standard deviation (7.353), this aligns with a low-breakout probability, making range-based strategies the optimal play. The absence of earnings between now and July further supports sideways movement expectations.
Options Trade Setup: Iron Condor
To capitalize on premium decay and IV contraction, I’m structuring an iron condor:
- Sell 115 Call / Buy 120 Call
- Sell 110 Put / Buy 105 Put
This strategy ensures limited risk while collecting premium in a high-probability range trade.
High Dividend Stock on the Move? COH – Eyes on 351.51 Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH) is showing strong bullish potential after price tapped into a respected Monthly Order Block (OB). This region aligns with a historically strong demand zone, offering a prime entry opportunity for longer-term investors and SMC traders alike.
From a Smart Money Concept (SMC) perspective, the structure remains bullish:
- Price swept a low into the Monthly OB, indicating engineered liquidity grab.
- The reaction shows strong displacement to the upside, validating the OB.
- Volume also suggests institutional interest at this level.
- There’s now a clean path toward Equal Highs at 351.51, a natural draw for buy-side liquidity.
With COH offering consistent dividend payouts, this could be a double win – capital appreciation + income.
🧠 As always: Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
Apple is standing at the edgeApple (AAPL) is losing its long-term structure — second retest of the broken trendline suggests a bearish setup
On the 3D chart, Apple shows signs of structural breakdown. The weekly trendline from 2023 was broken and retested — twice. The price failed to regain it and now trades below, with candles showing weakness: low body closes, upper wicks, and no upside follow-through.
MA200 is now above price, and all EMAs are turning down. Volume Profile shows a heavy resistance block near $197. If the price remains below, sellers are in control.
Key levels:
— $192.20 = 0.5 Fibo support.
— Breakdown ➝ targets: $180 → $167 → $152.
Fundamentals:
Apple's recent reports show decelerating growth, weak China demand, and compressed margins. While AI buzz supports sentiment, institutional flow suggests distribution. BigTech may be topping out, and Apple is positioned for pullback.
Strategy:
Short below $196 with confirmation. Stop: $198. Targets: $180 / $167 / $152.
Failure to reclaim $192–197 = broken trend confirmed.
This is not a growth setup. This is where trends end — and profit-taking begins.
Mr. LATE drop the RATE!!"Jerome Powell aspires to be remembered as a heroic Federal Reserve chair, akin to Tall Paul #VOLKER.
However, Volker was largely unpopular during much of his tenure.
The primary function of the Federal Reserve is to finance the federal #government and ensure liquidity in US capital markets.
Controlling price inflation should not rely on costly credit.
Instead, it should be achieved by stimulating growth and productivity through innovation and by rewarding companies that wisely allocate capital, ultimately leading to robust cash flows... innovation thrives on affordable capital.
While innovation can lead to misallocations and speculative errors, this is a normal aspect of the process.
(BUT it is crucial that deposits and savings are always insured and kept separate from investment capital.)
By maintaining higher interest rates for longer than necessary, J POW is negatively impacting innovators, capital allocators, small businesses that need cheap capital to function effectively, job creators, and the overall growth environment.
Addressing price inflation is a far more favorable situation than allowing unemployment to soar to intolerable levels.
"Losing my job feels like a depression".
But if I have to pay more for eggs, I can always opt for oats.
Great Depression 2.0 Starting in 2030?Looking at the Dow Jones, we can see clear cycles forming on this index. I believe we could see one more major run on the Dow between now and 2030, followed by a repeat of the Great Depression. I could easily be wrong, but the charts suggest this is a very real possibility.
So, between now and our potential top in 2030, we have an opportunity to make a significant amount of money in markets like crypto.
As always, stay profitable.
– Dalin Anderson
TESLA: Can double its price ($640) by the end of the year.Tesla is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.064, MACD = 4.910, ADX = 24.971), consolidating for the past week, but remains over its 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 nonetheless. Since the major market bottom on January 6th 2023, it's been trading inside a Channel Up and this is its 3rd bullish wave. The 2 prior rose by +196.67% from the bottom of the pattern (despite the 2nd breaking marginally under it). Consequently, this suggests that Tesla can rise by +100% from the current $320 level, before the Channel Up tops (HH) again. We are bullish, TP = 640.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Palo Alto Formed Bullish Pattern with 80% Return PotentialPalo Alto Networks (PANW) has technically formed a pattern similar to its 2019–2021 flat period. Back then, after two tops (points 1 and 2) and a sharp bear trap breakdown below the current range (point 3), PANW retested the upper side of the range once more (point 4), which was followed by a massive breakout. From point 3 to the top, PANW rallied 361.8% of the range width, delivering more than a 130% return in about a year and a half.
Currently, PANW appears to be forming a smaller version of that same pattern. Points 1, 2, and 3 seem to be in place, and we are now at point 4. Excluding fundamentals, if the same pattern completes, the technical target could be around $367, an over 80% potential return from current levels. However, it may be wise to wait for a confirmed breakout for validation.
On the fundamental side, PANW appears to be trading at a high valuation compared to both its historical averages and sector peers. The 2-year forward P/E average is 51.2x, while the current forward P/E sits at 55.5x not drastically higher, but still elevated. That said, Palo Alto is expected to post 14.29% year-over-year revenue growth with a strong operating margin in the upcoming earnings report.
ATI Still Has More Upside PotentialATI broke out above the key $67.35 resistance level in early May and is now attempting to consolidate its recent surge. While the stock has nearly reached the consensus analyst price target—suggesting limited near-term upside—the recent Middle East visit by Trump may have changed the outlook.
ATI is a U.S.-based specialty materials and components manufacturer, focused on high-performance metals for the aerospace, defense, and energy sectors. During Trump’s visit, large aerospace orders were announced, especially for NYSE:BA and NYSE:GE . The total value of these orders is expected to reach $115 billion.
ATI could be one of the main beneficiaries of this deal, as nearly 16% of its revenue comes from sales to Boeing and GE. In addition, broader demand growth in the aerospace and defense industries may directly or indirectly support ATI’s business.
From a valuation standpoint, ATI is currently trading at 13.9x forward earnings—26% above its two-year average. However, many valuation models and forecasts remain outdated and may not yet reflect the impact of recent developments.
If ATI pulls back to retest the $67.35 breakout level, it could present a strong buying opportunity with a close stop. The upper boundary of the trend channel, currently near $90, may serve as a medium-term target.
Could Microstrategy be a 1 Trillion dollar mcap company?!Microstrategy and Michael Saylor evoke a spectrum of opinions, with analysts offering a diverse range of potential future valuations.
High risk, high reward!
The destiny of Microstrategy’s market capitalization is clearly linked to Bitcoin’s performance. The company has been utilizing debt to acquire the cryptocurrency, aiming to create significant spreads. This leverage is the reason why the stock has significantly outperformed Bitcoin throughout 2024.
I am confident that Bitcoin can indeed reach $200k, with a potential upper price target of $250K for this cycle, indicating a potentially explosive Q3 and Q4.
The lingering question is how much additional FOMO and premium Saylor can cultivate for his leveraged vehicle in such an environment?
That's why charting is such a key component to any personal investing strategy IMHO, as we navigate these markets.
$6 to $27 in minutes after market open $CERONASDAQ:CERO went $6 to $27. All I did was just take safest piece of the move, bought right before halt and sold into easy gap up blowout after halt 🎯
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💼 Business Inventories Flat in April
U.S. business inventories held steady in April, indicating stable consumer and wholesale demand. That suggests production won't need to cut sharply in the near term, supporting GDP outlook
🏭 Industrial Production Slips
Industrial output declined 0.2% in May, signaling ongoing weakness in factory activity amid less favorable global trade conditions .
🌐 Geopolitical Pressures Persist
Heightened tension in the Middle East continues to pressure risk assets. Investors remain focused on safe-haven flows into gold, Treasuries, and defensive equities, with analysts noting the risk backdrop remains tilted to the downside
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 18:
8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May)
Measures new residential construction — leading indication of housing sector health.
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Tracks the weekly count of new unemployment filings — useful for spotting early labor-market weakening.
2:00 PM ET – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady. Market focus will be on any commentary that hints at future tightening or easing plans.
2:30 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Investors will parse Powell’s remarks for guidance on rate paths, inflation trends, and economic risks.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #housing #Fed #geo_risk #charting #technicalanalysis
