Get started

Supply and Demand

Why Bitcoin's Bull Run Hits a WallBitcoin's Bull Run Hits a Wall: A Deep Dive into the $115K Correction, Record Leverage, and the Battle for Market Control A sudden and violent tremor has shaken the cryptocurrency market to its core. After a period of quiet range-bound trading, Bitcoin has decisively moved from consolidation to a sharp correction, plunging below the critical $116,000 support level and briefly touching $115,000. The abrupt downturn triggered a "bloodbath for crypto longs," liquidating hundreds of thousands of traders and wiping out nearly $600 million in leveraged positions. Yet, as the dust settles, a complex and contradictory picture emerges. While institutional sell-offs and cascading liquidations paint a grim short-term picture, record-high open interest, significant liquidity grabs, and bullish on-chain signals suggest the long-term uptrend may be far from over. This article delves into the anatomy of the crash, the forces that fueled it, and the fierce battle between bearish catalysts and bullish undercurrents that will define Bitcoin's next move. Part 1: The Anatomy of the Correction - From Sideways to Sell-Off For weeks, Bitcoin's price action was characterized by consolidation, a phase where an asset trades within a defined range, reflecting market indecisiveness. After a strong upward trend that pushed Bitcoin to new highs above $120,000, this period of sideways movement was seen by many as a healthy pause before the next leg up. However, this placid surface masked building pressure. The transition from this consolidation phase to a full-blown correction was swift and brutal. A market correction is defined as a rapid price change, often a decline of at least 10% but less severe than a crash, that disrupts an asset's prevailing trend. The recent tumble below $116,000 fits this description perfectly. The sell-off was not a gradual slide but a violent dislocation, breaking through established support levels and triggering a wave of panic. This dramatic shift was exacerbated by several key factors. On-chain data revealed that a significant institutional player, Galaxy Digital, unleashed a massive sell-off, reportedly moving billions in Bitcoin to exchanges. This sudden injection of supply into the market acted as a powerful catalyst, overwhelming buy-side pressure and initiating the downward price spiral. The market's reaction was immediate, with the price slicing through the psychological support at $116,000 and heading towards the next major liquidity zone around $115,000. Part 2: The Cascade - A $600 Million Bloodbath for Leveraged Traders The speed of the price drop had a devastating impact on the derivatives market, a space where traders use borrowed funds to amplify their bets on price movements. The sudden downturn resulted in one of the most significant liquidation events in recent memory, with 213,729 traders liquidated for a total of nearly $600 million over a 24-hour period. What is a Liquidation? In crypto futures trading, liquidation is the forced closure of a trader's position by an exchange. This happens when a trader can no longer meet the margin requirements for their leveraged position, meaning their collateral is insufficient to cover their mounting losses. For example, a trader using 20x leverage on a $1,000 position controls $20,000 worth of Bitcoin. However, a mere 5% price move against them can wipe out their entire initial capital, triggering a liquidation. The recent event was a "bloodbath for crypto longs," meaning traders who had bet on the price of Bitcoin increasing were the primary victims. As the price fell, these long positions became unprofitable, and once they crossed their liquidation price, exchanges automatically sold the collateral on the open market to cover the losses. This process created a deadly feedback loop known as a liquidation cascade. The first wave of forced selling from liquidated longs added more downward pressure on the price. This, in turn, pushed the price down further, triggering the liquidation of another set of long positions whose liquidation prices were slightly lower. This domino effect—where liquidations cause lower prices, which in turn cause more liquidations—is what transforms a standard price dip into a violent market crash. This automated, rapid chain reaction is a hallmark of the highly leveraged and volatile crypto markets. Part 3: The Fuel for the Fire - Open Interest Reaches a Record $44 Billion Underpinning this massive liquidation event was an unprecedented buildup of leverage in the market, best measured by a metric called Open Interest (OI). Open Interest represents the total number of active or unsettled futures contracts in the market. It’s a measure of the total capital and number of positions committed to the derivatives market, distinct from trading volume, which counts both opened and closed positions. An increase in OI signifies that new money and new positions are entering the market, often leading to higher volatility. In a stunning development, as Bitcoin's price began to plunge, the total Open Interest surged to a new all-time high of $44 billion. This unusual divergence—where price falls while open interest rises—suggested that a significant number of new short positions were being opened to bet against the market, while many longs remained trapped, hoping for a reversal. This created a powder keg of leverage. Further fueling this was a notable surge on the world's largest crypto exchange. On-chain data showed that traders added 10,000 Bitcoin worth of open interest to the BTCUSDT perpetual contract on Binance alone. This single-day surge in open interest on a key trading pair signaled a massive influx of speculative capital. High open interest acts as fuel for volatility. With so many leveraged contracts open, any sharp price movement can trigger the kind of cascading liquidations that were just witnessed. The record-breaking $44 billion in open positions meant the market was more susceptible than ever to a violent deleveraging event. Part 4: The Big Players - A Tale of Two Whales The recent market turmoil cannot be fully understood without examining the actions of its largest participants: the whales and institutions. Their movements often create the initial waves that retail traders are forced to navigate. On the bearish side, the primary catalyst for the sell-off appears to be Galaxy Digital. The digital asset financial services firm was observed moving tens of thousands of Bitcoin, worth billions of dollars, to centralized exchanges. These flows were reportedly part of a larger liquidation of holdings from a dormant "Satoshi-era" whale, with Galaxy acting as the intermediary to facilitate the sale. By strategically offloading such a massive amount, even if through over-the-counter (OTC) desks to minimize initial impact, the sheer volume of sell pressure eventually spilled into the public markets, triggering the correction. The firm's subsequent withdrawal of over a billion dollars in stablecoins from exchanges further suggests a large-scale profit-taking or strategic de-risking maneuver. However, this institutional selling pressure is contrasted by a powerful bullish undercurrent. Even as the market reeled, other large players were making bold, long-term bets. Reports surfaced of a significant whale bet on Bitcoin reaching a staggering $200,000 by the end of the year. This dichotomy highlights the deep division in market sentiment. While some large entities are taking profits or repositioning, others view this correction as a prime accumulation opportunity, demonstrating unwavering conviction in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. This clash of titans—the institutional seller and the long-term bullish whale—defines the current market structure. The price is caught in a tug-of-war between immediate, heavy supply and deep-pocketed, long-term demand. Part 5: Reading the Tea Leaves - A Healthy Reset or the Start of a Bear Market? While the headlines scream "bloodbath" and "crash," a deeper analysis of market mechanics and on-chain data offers a more nuanced perspective. Several key indicators suggest that this brutal pullback, while painful, may be a healthy reset rather than the beginning of a sustained bear market. Argument 1: The Pullback Remains Within Normal Volatility Range Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, and sharp corrections are a historical feature of its bull markets. Drawdowns of 30-40% have been common pit stops during previous bull runs. While a drop from over $120,000 to $115,000 is significant, analysts point out that such moves are not out of character for the asset. Historically, major cycle-ending bear markets have seen drawdowns exceeding 75-80%. In contrast, mid-cycle corrections serve to wipe out excess leverage, shake out weak hands, and build a more sustainable foundation for future growth. This event, though severe for leveraged traders, may fall into the category of a standard, albeit sharp, bull market correction. Argument 2: A Necessary Liquidity Grab Sophisticated market analysis suggests the plunge below $115,000 was a textbook liquidity grab. This is a maneuver, often initiated by large players or "smart money," where the price is intentionally pushed to a level where a high concentration of stop-loss and liquidation orders are known to exist. By triggering these sell orders, large buyers can absorb the resulting liquidity to fill their own large positions at more favorable prices before reversing the market direction. The area just below a key psychological level like $115,000 is a prime location for such a maneuver. The rapid dip followed by a stabilization could indicate that this was not a panic-driven crash, but a calculated move to hunt liquidity before the next leg up. Argument 3: Bullish Signals from Spot Markets and On-Chain Data While the derivatives market was in turmoil, other indicators flashed bullish signals. One analyst pointed to a strong correlation between surges in Binance's spot trading volume and subsequent price upswings. Recently, Binance's share of the spot market volume surged significantly, a move that has historically preceded rallies. High spot volume indicates genuine buying and selling activity, as opposed to the paper bets of the futures market, and can signal strong underlying demand. Furthermore, key on-chain metrics suggest the long-term bullish scenario remains intact. Analysts highlighted that Bitcoin's price found support near the "Realized Price" for short-term holders, indicating that recent buyers were not panic-selling in large numbers. Other metrics, such as those showing that major long-term holders are retaining their assets despite record prices, paint a picture of underlying market strength that contrasts with the short-term speculative chaos. Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroads The dramatic plunge to $115,000 was a multifaceted event, a perfect storm of institutional profit-taking, extreme leverage, and the brutal mechanics of the crypto derivatives market. For the over-leveraged trader, it was a catastrophe. For the long-term investor, it may have been a fleeting opportunity. The market now stands at a critical juncture, defined by conflicting forces. On one hand, the specter of institutional selling, exemplified by the Galaxy Digital offload, looms large. The record-high open interest, though slightly diminished after the liquidations, still represents a significant amount of leverage that could fuel further volatility. On the other hand, the arguments for a bullish continuation are compelling. The idea that the crash was a calculated liquidity grab, the historical precedent for sharp bull market corrections, the strength in spot market volumes, and the conviction of long-term holders all suggest that the core uptrend is resilient. The whale betting on a $200,000 price by year-end serves as a potent symbol of this underlying confidence. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining which of these forces will prevail. The battle between the short-term pressures of deleveraging and the long-term thesis of accumulation will be fought in the charts and on the blockchain. While the bloodbath for longs served as a stark reminder of the perils of leverage, it may have also been the violent, necessary purge required to cleanse the market and pave the way for a more sustainable ascent.
OKX:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
XRPUSDTBINANCE:XRPUSDT broke above its long-term downtrend line and surged to the $3.5000 resistance area, but is now undergoing a correction. The current bullish structure, with a higher high and higher low, suggests the trend remains upward. A pullback toward the $3.0000 demand zone is likely and would be a healthy retracement. Holding this area could trigger a continuation toward the key resistance at $4.2000. Key Level Price Main Support $2.2000 Main Resistance $4.2000 Best Buy Range $2.9500 – $3.1500 Best Sell Range $4.1000 – $4.2000 Investment Risk (Buying) Medium ⚠️Please control RISK management
Long
by EhsanZeydabadi
DOGE H4 – Demand Zone Reclaim as Bullish Trigger Price is currently testing the H4 demand zone (~0.227–0.254). Watch for price to reclaim the demand zone and close back above 0.254. If confirmed, expect a move up toward the red resistance cluster at 0.271–0.275. Consolidation above this area (highlighted in blue) would be a strong signal for continuation. Invalidation: clean breakdown and acceptance below 0.227 signals failure of demand and deeper retrace. This setup aims to capitalize on a classic liquidity sweep and demand reclaim. Typically, after taking out the flat open and collecting late shorts/stop losses, strong buying often steps in if demand is genuine. A successful reclaim and consolidation above the previous resistance will set the stage for bullish continuation. If this zone fails to hold, the move is invalidated and lower targets come into play. Waiting for confirmation reduces the risk of a failed bounce.
Long
by Goldfinch_song
Tarriff help BGS has built a base at $4. U.S. tariffs = pricier Mexican imports. U.S. producers may gain less competition, ability to raise prices, potential for better margins and more demand from buyers shifting away from imports. Call flow has seen some interest recently with a 20.47 short float I added JAN 5C at .40. Overall, insiders bought 219,570 shares for $1.7 million and sold 8,000 shares for $67,000 in the last 12 months, indicating net buying activity. These transactions reflect confidence from insiders, particularly Sherrill, whose purchases were significant and pre-arranged under Rule 10b5-1 plans
NYSE:BGSLong
by WSMS199
Long MES I see CME_MINI:ESU2025 is on a uptrend with a BOS( break of structure) at $6421, there is a trend line marked in blue that has been tested several times. There is a support in confluence with POC area from a previous session. Above VWAP → Favorable for short positions (or considered expensive for long positions). Below VWAP → Favorable for long positions (or considered expensive for sellers). Personally, I build my position in zones — especially around key levels like order blocks, imbalance fills, or liquidity sweeps (Smart Money Concepts). I prefer scaling in when entering trades to catch better prices.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by TheMarketArchitect
HMC Capital Ltd Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set Up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # HMC Capital Ltd Quote - Double Formation * (Downtrend Argument)) - *A+ | Completed Survey * Ongoing Wave (3)) - *(P3)) | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) = a / Long Consecutive Range * (TP2) = b / Short Consecutive Pullback | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100 - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 80.00 AUD * Entry At 50.00 AUD * Take Profit At 10.00 AUD * (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation - Continuation Pattern | Not Valid - Reversal Pattern | Not Valid * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Sell
PEPPERSTONE:HMC.AUShort
by TradePolitics
Is Smart Money Selling Gold? A VSA LookHey Traders, Let's take a look at the Gold (XAU/USD) 1-hour chart using Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). The price made a strong run-up to a new high around $3,438, but the volume is telling us a story of potential weakness. Here’s a simple breakdown of what I'm seeing. The Trap at the Top (Signs of Weakness) Think of the market as being moved by "smart money" (professionals) and "herd money" (the crowd). Climax Volume: See that huge volume spike right at the peak on July 23rd? While it looks like strong buying, this is often a classic sign of a Buying Climax. This is where smart money starts selling their positions to the excited crowd who are buying at the top, fearing they'll miss out. No Real Buyers Left: After the peak, notice how the price tried to push higher a few times but on much lower volume? This is a "No Demand" signal. It’s like a car trying to rev its engine, but it's out of gas. It shows there isn't enough buying power to push the price any higher. Sellers Take Control: As the price started to fall from the top, look at the volume on the down bars. It got bigger. This tells us that supply (selling pressure) is now in control, and they are pushing the price down with force. Where Are We Now? The price has dropped and is now hovering around the $3,330 area. The volume has dried up for now, which means the market is taking a pause and deciding where to go next. What to Watch For Next Based on the VSA story, here are two possible scenarios: Scenario 1 (Bearish 📉): The weakness continues. If we see the price try to rally from here but the volume is very low, it would be another major red flag. It would suggest sellers are still in control, and we could see a break below the recent low of $3,320 for another leg down. Scenario 2 (Bullish 📈): This is a bear trap. For this to happen, we would need to see a strong sign of buying returning. For example, a sharp drop on massive volume that is quickly bought back up. This would signal that the sellers have been absorbed and smart money is starting to buy again. Conclusion: For now, the evidence points more towards weakness. The action at the top suggests that smart money was distributing (selling) their gold. Key Takeaway: Be cautious of any weak-looking bounces. The sellers appear to have the upper hand until we see a clear sign of strength with high buying volume. This is not financial advice. This is just my interpretation of the chart using VSA. Always do your own research and manage your risk. Good luck trading!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by bluewolf_trades
1
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for a price to attempt the higher level red box sitting around the 3370-75 region and if not breached, we felt an opportunity to short would be available from that region. We said if that failed and the move commenced, we would be looking at a complete correction of the move back down into the 3330-35 region, where we would then monitor price again in anticipation of a long from there or the extension level of 3310 which was also a red box short target (move complete). As you can see from the above, not only did we get that higher red box, we rejected, completed the move downside and then our traders managed to get that long trade all the way back up into the Excalibur target, red box targets and the hotspots shared in Camelot. A decent week again, not only on Gold but also the numerous other pairs we trade, share targets on and analyse. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we can expect more ranging price action, but due to the previous range from last week being so tight, it looks like we’ll see a breakout coming in the latter part of the week unless there is news to bring us unexpected volume. We have the key level below 3335-40 support and above that resistance and a red box sitting at 3375-80. This is the region that needs to watched for the break, and if broken we should hit the range high again at 3400-10. However, if rejected, we could again see this dip to attack that lower order region 3310-6 before attempting to recover. Last week we wanted to see that curveball and although we did see some aggressive price action, I think we will see something extreme for this week. It’s that lower level 3310-6 that is a key region for bulls, if broken we can see a complete flush in gold taking us down into the 3250’s before we start the summer run. That for us would be the ideal scenario going into the month end, but, we’ll play it how we see and as usual, we go level to level and update any changes as we go along. KOG’s Bias for the week: Bullish above 3340 with targets above 3355, 3361, 3368, 3372 and above that 3385 Bearish below 3340 with targets below 3335, 3330, 3322, 3316, 3310 and below that 3304 RED BOX TARGETS: Break above 3350 for 3355, 3361, 3367, 3375 and 3390 in extension of the move Break below 3340 for 3335, 3330, 3320, 3310 and 3306 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
42
4H Analysis for GOLD🚨 Two Powerful Scenarios for Today’s Market Setup 🚨 Trade smart. Wait for confirmations. Here's how to dominate the next move: 🔹 Scenario 1 – Buy Setup Above 3349–3357 Demand Zone 📍 If price taps into the 3349–3357 zone, don’t rush in! ✅ Wait for Minor & Major Resistance ✅ Then, look for a clean retracement 📈 Enter on the buy side after confirmation — ride the trend with confidence. This setup needs clear structure shifts to avoid false moves. Be patient. Let the market show its hand first. 🔹 Scenario 2 – Buy or Sell Based on Key Reaction at 3333–3340 Zone 📍 If price drops into the 3333–3340 zone (stronger support): ✅ Watch for a liquidity sweep. ✅ Look for a bullish reversal pattern. ✅ Wait for a retest of the broken structure or order block 📈 Then enter for buy, targeting higher liquidity zones. TP1 : 3390 , TP2: 3412 📉 BUT — If price breaks the 4H support (clean close below): 🔁 This same zone becomes resistance 🚨 Enter on pullback to resistance for a sell-side continuation tradingview.sweetlogin.com
FX:XAUUSD
by AsadYaseen_
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: Not bad play at all with the red boxes working well, KOG's bias of the day and the red box targets working well and of course the indicators and our trusted algo Excalibur guiding the way completing the move that we wanted downside. We then got a fantastic long from the bias level and red box activation up into where we are now. So, what now? We have resistance and a red box above which is broken suggesting we may see some more movement downside in the coming sessions. This would also align with the hunt and undercut low that can take place at this key level. We're a bit too low to short, so we'll either look for the break above 3375 to go higher, or, we'll wait lower for a potential long trade from the red box region. Immediate support here is 3360-5 and resistance 3375. Price: 3364 KOG’s Bias of the day: Bullish above 3350 with targets above 3358✅, 3365✅ and above that 3379✅ Bearish on break of 3350 with target below 3337 and below that 3330 RED BOXES: Break above 3365 for 3372✅, 3375✅, 3388 and 3406 in extension of the move Break below 3350 for 3335, 3330, 3326 and 3307 in extension of the move As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
CELH Eyes Upside Momentum as Consolidation TightensCelsius Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CELH ) has shown a notable recovery from its early 2025 lows, steadily climbing and recently consolidating around the $46 level. The stock is currently trading above both the short-term (red) and mid-term (blue) moving averages, which are sloping upward—indicating bullish momentum. The recent price action reveals a tight consolidation just below the previous local highs around $47–$48. If CELH can decisively break above this resistance zone with increased volume, it may trigger a short-term breakout and open room toward the $52–$55 range, even $60. Conversely, if the stock fails to break above resistance and falls below the $43–$44 support area (near the moving averages), it could trigger a short pullback toward the $40 level. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $47.50–$48.00 Support: $43.00–$44.00 Breakout Target: $52.00–$55.00 / extended $60 Momentum remains positive, but confirmation through volume and follow-through price action is essential for any breakout to sustain.
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by The_Quantastic
Gold Tapping Into Major Support – Eyes on Bullish ReversalPrice is currently retracing after a strong drop from recent highs. We're now approaching a key demand zone, aligning with: 📍 1H Order Block (OB) 📍 4H Trendline Support 📍 Liquidity Zone ($$$) 📉 If price taps into this area, it may offer a high-probability long setup. 📈 First target: 3380 (mid-range resistance) 🧱 If this breaks, we can look to scale in/add more positions, targeting the 4H trendline zone near 3420. ⚠️ Waiting for price reaction at support – patience is key!
TVC:GOLDLong
by Erin_Gold_Vault
1
Bearish retest or deviation for Bitcoin117000 is key. it’ll decide whether this is a bearish retest or just a deviation. i believe it’s a bearish retest and we’re setting up for 110-114 next. last drop came when price kept failing to hold above EQ. now we’re below the EQ of the ath/previous ath range. if price can’t reclaim that either, a deeper drop is likely. a 12h close above EQ could open the path toward 120-121k, but that’s the less probable case in my view. why? nasdaq and spx are in premium zones (fib extensions), and holidays are near for big players. as profit taking hits there, pressure will echo here. simple cause, predictable effect.
by alphaentropy
1