Short Term USD Strength This Week! Sell The Majors?This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 8 - 12th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.
USD gained some strength on Friday's job data. Talks with China this week may add to it. But I believe the bullishness will be short term.
Look for valid sells in EUR and GBP. Be cautious with AUD and NZD. CAD and CHF will also offer opportunities to sells.
CPI Data due Wed, making that day and the days that follow potentially the best trading days this week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Supply and Demand
USDCHF: weekly overviewHello Traders,
In long-term, we anticipate a bearish move to 0.76500 for this pair. but for this week, our most important zone is the 0.81911
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The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
USDCAD weekly overviewHello Traders,
War in Persian Gulf could change the direction of this analysis. Any conflict in the Middle ease could make out two white zones be red and suitable for shot trades. in normal situation, only 1.37732 is prepared for long trades.
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The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
XAU/USD 09-13 June 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher-highs in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue dotted horizontal line.
The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and potential repricing of Gold.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis and Bias remains the same as Analysis dated 11 May 2025.
Since my last weekly analysis price has finally printed a bearish CHoCH.
This is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Price should now technically trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s continued dovish stance, coupled with escalating geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to sustain elevated market volatility, influencing both intraday and broader trend developments.
Additionally, price action may be further shaped by U.S. policy decisions, including measures enacted under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic policymaking could introduce further uncertainty, contributing to the ongoing repricing dynamics within the gold market.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
GBPJPY: Weekly OverviewHello Traders,
Everything is clear in the chart. the yellow line is a HTF resistance.
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The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
USDJPY: Weekly OverviewHello traders,
Generally, I think USD tends to be weaker in next weeks
Why 142.879 is a white (No-Trade) zone?
140.729 is a strong reversal point regarding the Weekly timeframe.
Any short trade here is not rational.
It is not suitable for long, because of the bearish trend line.
Other zones are clear!
**********************************************************
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
GBPUSD:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next WeekAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Fundamental Analysis:
US May Nonfarm Payroll data influences Fed policy expectations: slowing job growth but strong wage growth raises odds of a September rate cut, exerting pressure on the USD. Meanwhile, the UK manufacturing sector faces headwinds from US tariff policies, while domestic policy adjustments (e.g., tightened stamp duty relief) impact the economy. Diverging expectations on BoE rate policy and unimplemented parts of the US-UK trade agreement add uncertainty.
Technical Analysis (4-hour chart):
MACD histogram remains negative but is shrinking, indicating marginal bullish momentum recovery amid an unclear overall trend.
Rising prices with declining volumes signal weakening upward momentum.
Key resistance: ~1.3600; support: ~1.3400.
Trading Recommendation:
Aggressive traders may initiate light long positions near 1.3450 on price retracement.
Trading Strategy:
buy@1.3450-1.3480
TP:1.3550-1.3600
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GBPUSD: Weekly Overview 9th of June 2025GDP m/m is in this week! Take this under consideration. Any significant bearish surprise for this announcement means a possible break of the bullish channel.
******************************************
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
XAUUSD: Weekly overview 9th of JuneHello Traders!
Zone of 3352.0 is only available for long if you consider the middle of the bullish channel, is considerable midline.
**************************************
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
EURUSD:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next WeekAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Fundamental Analysis:
Easing EU-U.S. trade tensions have provided support for the euro, though the stability of the eurozone's economic recovery remains uncertain—subsequent economic data will influence EUR dynamics. Markets are closely monitoring U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy: weak data or dovish signals could weaken the USD, benefiting EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart):
MACD: Positive histogram shrinking, indicating diminishing bullish momentum and a non-trending market environment.
Price-Volume Divergence: Rising prices accompanied by declining trading volumes signal insufficient upward momentum.
KDJ: Reading of 95 suggests overbought conditions.
Key Levels: Resistance at 1.1461 (upper Bollinger Band), support at 1.1300.
Trading Recommendation:
Consider light long positions near 1.1350 on price retracement.
Trading Strategy:
buy@1.13500-1.13550
TP:1.14500-1.15000
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BTCUSDT: Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Fundamental Analysis:
The U.S. Senate’s procedural vote on the GENIUS Stablecoin Act could inject significant 合规 capital into the crypto market if passed. Regulatory sentiment has improved following the Trump administration’s push to include Bitcoin in strategic reserves. Concurrently, Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $40B in inflows during May, while Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500 has solidified crypto’s mainstream investment credentials.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin is consolidating above $100k, with MACD showing diminished but dominant bullish momentum. RSI at ~55 indicates balanced market forces. On-chain metrics reveal historically low distribution pressure from long-term holders and accelerating retail participation, forming a supportive backdrop for price appreciation.
Trading Recommendation:
Seek long entries on pullbacks. Light positions may be initiated between $103k-$104k.
Trading Strategy:
buy@ 103000–104000
TP:106000-108000
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EURUSD: Weekly Overview June 9th 2025Hello Traders,
US CPI news is really important and could change the direction of the markets. But I think the Pair would keep its bullish trend for next week too.
*********************************************************************
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
USOIL:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next WeekAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Fundamental Analysis:
OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411K bpd in July, with major producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE holding ample idle capacity. This expansion could exacerbate global crude oil oversupply, pressuring prices. Concurrently, the U.S. steel import tariff hikes may trigger trade frictions, dampening global economic recovery and curbing industrial crude demand.
Technical Analysis:
The MACD indicator shows expanding green bars (bearish momentum), with short-term moving averages trending toward a bearish crossover of long-term averages. However, recent price retracement from relative highs suggests potential rebound. Key resistance lies at the $66–67/barrel zone, while critical support holds at $61.5–62/barrel.
Trading Recommendation:
Aggressive traders may initiate light short positions near 66 on a confirmed resistance rejection.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@66-65.5
TP:63-62
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XAUUSD:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next WeekAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Gold Market Analysis:
Despite minimal deviation between Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release and prior figures, gold prices accelerated below the key support level of 3333 during the U.S. session after a period of bearish consolidation. Technical structure suggests further downside potential: the weekly opening gap at 3292 remains unfilled, serving as the first target for bearish continuation. A decisive break below this level could open space toward 3280–3272, with 3280 identified as a strong support zone.
Monday Focus: Prioritize rebound shorting, targeting initial support at 3304–3298.
Key Threshold: Long positions may be considered on failure to breach 3292, with a focus on gap closure dynamics.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@3350-3340
TP:3300-3280
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EURUSD 4 HOUR OUTLOOK Price mitigated 4hour supply and pullback or retraces to internal sell to buy candle and the zone has been mitigated before.
Anticipating price to break structure to the upside and pullback or...
anticipating price to buy shorts when the market opens and sell to DISCOUNT ( lower time frame- we have a change of character - internal structure
Price will break structure to the upside and continues with HTF bias
Price will clear sell side liquidity to Discount level either one of the marked demands.
I will use h1/m30 time frame for confirmation
TSLA: Uptrend channel bounce, trading between 50 and 200-day SMAHey guys/gals!
So we all know that Tesla took a massive drop last week. It fell about 14%, and was down even 3% after hours at one point. I think we can all agree this crash wasn't technicals driven - it was clearly headline impacted. This was a clear black swan even t, and even in my case, nothing like this has ever happened to me as a trader. It was unforeseeable, forced me to hedge overnight and I'm still having nightmares (lol). Definitely one to remember as I don't think something like this would happen with any other stock. Tesla is truly unique in this sense.
But looking at the bigger picture, the bounce that we experienced on Friday must've been technicals driven, and psychologically influenced, as I am almost certain that the crash was a massive overreaction. People woke up the next day and thought this was severely discounted over a couple social media tweets (I won't go into the politics of things).
As you see on the chart, Tesla may in a new upward channel. At first I figured this may be a bear flag, however due to the upcoming catalyst like the Robotaxi launch - this would likely only be a bear flag if prices crashes below the lower support trend line.
As long as price is within the channel, I'd say things are holding up. We'd likely see a jump towards the upper side of the channel - however it's important to note that $300 and £360 are major resistance points. Robotaxi launch and any future tweets will definitely move price, and I think those will be a factor in determining whether price goes up or crashes below the trend line.
Another thing to point out is that price is currently trading between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day SMA is acting as vital support, whereas the 200-day SMA is the resistance. If there is a break above the 200-day SMA, price will likely go higher. The opposite may happen if price crashes below the 50-day SMA.
Either way, headlines and technicals mentioned above will continue to influence price.
Note: not financial advice.
KHB - Downtrend Phase is FINISHED ?KHB - CURRENT PRICE : RM0.125
KHB was in downtrend since its listing day on 08 OCTOBER 2024. Recently the stock price rise with a bullish candlestick on 09 MEI 2025. The stock is making higher high and higher low. This indicates that the downtrend may end. At current price, it gives an attractive RISK REWARD RATIO.
ENTRY PRICE : RM0.125
TARGET PRICE : RM0.140 (+12%) and RM0.150 (+20)
SUPPORT : RM0.115 (-8%) --- The low of long white candle
XAUUSD Medium Term analysis. Are we super bearish? June 9th 2025OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold's latest trend analysis and strategy on June 9:
Basic logic analysis:
Decrease in risk aversion:
Easing trade tensions between China and the US are weakening short-term demand for gold as a safe haven, but long-term uncertainties (such as the outlook for global economic recovery and Federal Reserve policies) still support gold's safe-haven properties.
Bearish technical bias dominates:
Weekly chart: Inverted hammer candlestick + negative MACD crossover at high levels, indicating a risk of correction.
Daily chart: Two consecutive bearish candles broke the short moving averages, MACD crossover is negative, but beware of the strength of the mid-Bollinger band support (near 3295).
4-hour timeframe: The price broke the lower Bollinger Band, the moving averages indicate a downtrend, and the MACD momentum is trending down, reinforcing the short-term negative outlook.
Important price levels:
Upper resistance:
First resistance: 3328-3330 (represents the dividing line between strength and weakness during the day, and a bearish pressure point).
Strong resistance: 3345-3350 (if broken, the short-term negative outlook may be reversed).
Bottom support:
First support: 3290-3280 (test target at the beginning of the week, may lead to a rebound).
Strong support: 3280 (if broken, it may open the way to a decline towards 3250-3230).
Trading Strategy Suggestions:
Opportunity to sell (short positions):
Aggressive: Sell with light positions after the rebound to 3325-3330, stop loss above 3340, target 3300-3290.
Conservative: Wait for price pressure in the 3340-3345 area before entering, stop loss at 3355, target as above.
Buying Opportunity (Long Positions):
Short-term bounce: If the price touches 3280-3290 and stabilizes (without a quick break down), a short position can be entered, stop loss at 3275, and target 3310-3320.
Bounce after break: If the 3280 level is broken quickly and then rebounds under pressure at 3295-3300, a short trade can be entered again.
Break above 3350: Temporarily close short positions, wait to see if the price will retest support before switching to buying.
Break below 3275: Be cautious when chasing the decline, as a technical rebound from lower levels may occur, so it is advisable to wait for a rebound before selling again.
Data Risk: The market may experience high volatility before and after the release of non-farm payrolls data, and caution is advised against sharp fluctuations.
Sudden Events: Any unexpected changes in geopolitics or Fed policy expectations could lead to a reversal of technical trends.
Position Management: Although the current trend is downward, it has not been confirmed as a single trend. Therefore, it is recommended to trade with light positions in stages, and avoid entering heavy positions in a specific direction.
Gold is likely to continue its volatile trend with a downward bias over the coming week, but beware of bullish attacks at key support levels. The primary trading strategy is to sell at high retracement points, with strategic support from light buying at key support levels, while adhering to stop losses and monitoring news developments.
Just a Heads-Up:
This is my take on the charts—not gospel, not financial advice, and definitely not a crystal ball 🔮. Trading is part skill, part patience, and part “what just happened?” 😅
We all see things a little differently, and that’s the beauty of it. So if you’ve got a hot take, wild theory, or just want to drop some chart wisdom—hit the comments!
Let’s grow, learn, and laugh through the madness together. 🚀📈
Each one, teach one.
— Phoenix FX Team 🔥🦅
US100 (NASDAQ)🔍 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days)
✅ Structure Highlights:
Market recently made a Higher High (HH).
Strong bullish BOS occurred after reclaiming the $21,600 zone.
Currently trading inside the brown supply zone (Area of Interest) between $21,775–$21,839.
0.236 Fibonacci retracement is holding as support — a sign of bullish control.
🟢 Short-Term Bullish Signals:
Strong bullish momentum with higher lows and internal BOSs.
If price breaks and holds above $21,839, the market may rally toward:
Target 1: $22,000
Target 2: $22,150 (psychological level)
⚠️ Short-Term Bearish Scenario:
If price gets rejected from the current supply zone:
Pullback expected toward $21,670 (0.382) or $21,597 (0.5 Fib)
Further dip to $21,500–$21,400 is possible if buyers fail to hold structure
📉 Short-Term Bias: Bullish with a possible pullback
Enter long on pullback to 0.382–0.5 Fib with bullish confirmation
Avoid fresh longs if price shows strong rejection at $21,839
📈 Long-Term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
🧠 Macro Trend:
Consistent bullish structure from below $19,000 in early May
Every correction has been shallow with strong continuation
As long as $21,400–$21,200 holds, macro trend remains bullish
📊 Long-Term Fib Zones:
0.5–0.618 retracement (strong accumulation zone) = $21,400–$21,250
Last confirmed Higher Low (HL) at ~$21,000, structure break below this = trend invalidation
💡 Long-Term Bias: Strong Bullish
Any correction into the green AOI or Fib zone = potential long opportunity
Next upside expansions could target:
$22,500
$23,000
GOLD🔍 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days)
✅ Structure Breakdown:
Price has made a lower high (LH) and recently a CHoCH to the downside, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
Rejection from the red supply zone / AOI near $3,375 confirms seller strength.
Price is currently retracing into the Fibonacci zone between 0.382–0.618, with:
0.5 Fib ≈ $3,308 (current level)
0.618 Fib ≈ $3,297
These levels align with possible short-term bounce or rejection zones.
⚠️ Key Short-Term Risks:
If price holds below $3,325, short-term momentum remains bearish.
A bounce could occur around $3,297–$3,275 (0.618 to 0.786 zone) due to demand and historical reaction.
📉 Short-Term Bias: Bearish → Potential Bullish Reversal
Expect possible continuation to $3,275 if support doesn't hold at 0.5 Fib.
Watch for bullish reversal structure (i.e., i-CHoCH + BOS) in the $3,275–$3,250 demand zone to go long.
📈 Long-Term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
🧠 Macro Structure:
We’ve seen a solid uptrend from $3,125, but the market is stalling near previous highs.
The double top (HH) around $3,375–$3,400 and CHoCH down hint at potential trend exhaustion.
However, long-term trend is still intact unless price closes below $3,250.
📊 Fib Confluence and Demand:
Major demand zone (yellow AOI) sits at $3,250–$3,275.
This zone aligns with the 0.618–0.786 retracement, a typical long-term accumulation area.
💡 Long-Term Bias: Bullish (If $3,250 Holds)
If price reacts strongly from $3,250–$3,275 → Expect new rally attempts to:
$3,375 (resistance)
$3,400+ (breakout target)
If $3,250 breaks down, Gold could retrace to:
$3,200, and worst-case scenario, $3,125 (last strong demand area)
🧭 Key Levels to Watch
Type Price Note
Resistance $3,375 Key supply zone / top
Resistance $3,400–$3,425 Historical HH / exhaustion
Support $3,308–$3,297 0.5–0.618 Fib (short-term)
Support $3,275 0.786 Fib + AOI
Support $3,250 Break = trend shift
Major Support $3,125 Long-term bullish invalidation below here
BTC OUTLOOK🔍 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days)
Current Price: ~$105,754
Immediate Structure:
BTC just completed a bullish break of structure (BOS) and internal change of character (i-CHoCH) to the upside.
Price rebounded sharply from the demand zone (green AOI) around $101,000–$102,000.
Price is now approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (~$106,150) from the recent swing high to swing low, which often acts as resistance.
Short-Term Bias: Bullish → Cautious
✅ Momentum is currently favoring bulls as shown by the breakout above recent structure.
⚠️ Resistance Zone between $106,150–$107,000 could cap this move, especially with past lower highs (LH) and supply visible in that region.
Short-term traders should watch for:
Break above $106,150 → continuation to $108,000–$110,000
Rejection at $106,150 → possible retest of $104,000–$103,000
📈 Long-Term Outlook (1–4 Weeks)
Market Structure:
Still showing signs of a macro lower high (LH) and lower low (LL) structure.
Despite recent bullish push, the macro downtrend from the highs around $112,000–$113,000 remains intact.
Reclaiming above $110,000 would be the first signal of a true trend reversal.
Fibonacci Confluence:
The current swing aligns with 0.618–0.786 retracement, which is often a “golden pocket” for institutional sell zones.
There’s a major supply zone (red AOI) that may keep price suppressed unless there's a breakout with high volume.
Long-Term Bias: Bearish Unless Proven Otherwise
Unless BTC breaks and holds above $110,000, long-term trend remains down.
Likely scenario:
Range-bound between $101,000–$107,000
Break below $101,000 → opens the door to $98,000 or lower
Break above $107,000 and hold → potential reversal towards $112,000