Supply and Demand
SPXUSDT Wave Structure and Bullish OutlookAfter a clean break from the descending structure, SPXUSDT established a solid base within the strong demand zone, followed by a bullish pennant breakout.
The wave count suggests the current move is targeting the $1.77 zone as wave (3) before a minor correction for wave (4), with the projected end of this bullish cycle aiming around $3.20. Immediate support remains at $1.14, and invalidation only occurs on a break below the previous base. Structure remains bullish unless proven otherwise.
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue Its Rise?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. We should wait for a valid breakout of the specified pattern and then enter the trade in the formed pattern. If gold corrects towards the demand zone, we can buy it in the short term with appropriate risk-reward.
According to the latest ADP report, private-sector employers in the United States added just 37,000 new jobs in May, marking a decline from 60,000 in April and reaching the lowest level in two years. While ADP data is typically interpreted with caution, many economists still anticipate that Friday’s official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report will reflect stronger employment growth.
President Donald Trump seized on this data to renew his criticism of the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates to support job creation. Some analysts argue that if the ADP figures are taken as an indicator, Trump’s tariffs may have impacted the labor market sooner than experts expected—though that remains a significant “if.”
ADP, a payroll services provider, announced on Wednesday that private employers added only 37,000 jobs in May, down from April’s 60,000 and the lowest number since March 2023. According to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, this figure falls well short of the expected 110,000 job increase.
If this sharp slowdown in job growth is mirrored in the government’s official report, it may indicate that businesses have drastically reduced hiring in response to the uncertainty caused by Trump’s frequently shifting trade policies. Forecasts have long predicted that higher inflation and slower job growth could result from trade conflicts. However, many experts believe the true effects will become visible in the summer, rather than being fully reflected in May’s data.
Additionally, many economists regard ADP as an imprecise leading indicator of the more comprehensive BLS report. Other labor market surveys have thus far shown greater resilience in employment conditions.
Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Economics, wrote: “As always, we recommend ignoring the headline message of the ADP jobs report, primarily because its recent track record has been very poor.” Analysts widely expect Friday’s BLS report to show that the labor market remained stable in May, with employers adding approximately 125,000 jobs.
Continuing his criticisms, Trump again used the ADP figures to attack Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates this year. In a post on Truth Social, Trump compared the Fed to the European Central Bank, which has already lowered rates nine times. The Federal Reserve, in contrast, has maintained the federal funds rate at elevated levels since January, aiming to reduce inflation to its 2% annual target by keeping upward pressure on borrowing costs. This policy is being implemented amid persistent uncertainty about the broader economic impact of the tariffs.
Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in order to reduce borrowing costs, stimulate economic growth, and prevent a potential recession. He wrote: “The ADP numbers are out!!! ‘Late’ Powell must cut rates now. He’s unbelievable!!! Europe has cut nine times!”
Meanwhile, the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book was released. Half of the Federal Reserve districts reported slight to moderate declines in economic activity, while three districts reported no change and three reported modest growth. All districts cited high levels of economic and political uncertainty. Reports on consumer spending varied. Home sales remained largely unchanged. While employment remained steady, hiring was conducted cautiously due to the uncertain outlook. Tariffs were reported to have caused moderate price increases, with rising costs increasingly passed on to consumers. Manufacturing activity was slightly weakened by tariffs, and businesses adopted a more cautious approach to investment.
BTCUSDT Technical InsightThe Buy Back Zone is currently serving as a strong demand area and should be closely monitored for informed decision making. This zone has acted firmly as support, providing a solid base for the completion of the wave (4) correction, which concluded precisely at the lower boundary of the descending channel.
We now anticipate the development of a breakout structure within the descending channel (a corrective flag), suggesting the initiation of wave (5) with an upside projection toward $120,661.
A decisive breakout and successful retest above $107,570 will validate bullish momentum and pave the way for continuation towards $110,314, and eventually the $120K zone, aligning with the full extension of the broader impulse wave.
At this stage, patience is key. Allow price action to confirm strength above resistance before committing to aggressive positioning. The bullish market structure remains intact as long as the Buy Back Zone continues to hold.
Feel free to share your thoughts, are you tracking this wave count with us?
XAU/USD 05 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Bearish Setup Forming Near Resistance | Fib + Order Block🔍 Technical Breakdown
Price is currently hovering around 3,371, testing a key resistance zone. This level aligns with a Fibonacci retracement and a marked order block, suggesting a potential reversal area.
Resistance Zone: 3,371.487
Support Levels: 3,361.705 and 3,354.190
Indicators Used: Fibonacci Retracement, Order Block
A red arrow on the chart illustrates a projected bearish move. If price fails to break above the resistance, we may see a retracement toward the lower support levels.
📌 Trade Idea
Watch for bearish confirmation (e.g., rejection candles, volume spikes) near the resistance zone. A short position could be considered with a target near the support levels and a stop above the resistance.
XAUUSDThe attached image represents an advanced technical analysis of the gold (XAUUSD) chart using a set of advanced tools and methods, such as:
🧠 Elliott Wave Analysis:
A clear sequence of waves is shown:
Wave (i) in red represents the peak.
Wave (ii) below (correction A-B-C).
Within the correction, we identified:
A then B (reaching 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of A).
Wave C ended in a demand zone.
📊 Smart Tools Used:
EQL (Equal Highs/Lows): Marked to highlight liquidity above the peaks.
CHOCH (Change of Character): Signals a change in trend from bearish to bullish.
BOS (Break of Structure): Indicates a breakout of a price structure (bullish here).
Demand Zone: A strong demand zone that has been responded to.
Weak High/Strong Low: To identify areas of volatility and the strength of buyers and sellers.
🔍 What this analysis indicates:
The end of an impulse wave (i) and a strong upward trend.
An A-B-C correction to a demand zone.
A strong upward rebound after the appearance of CHoCH and BOS.
Next prediction: The upward trend continues unless the Strong Low is broken.
Hedge funds are unusually bearish and here's why...We have a huge dealing range to short into and still remain bullish, it's basically free money on technical retracement/correction while not ruining the market.
The retailers have been buying since April but there is no institutional orderflow evidenced by no peak above average volume levels.
Technicals will reign supreme here. Trump is either trolling about the rate decrease or he has no idea about chart technicals 😮💨. I bet he's trolling, as he has cabinets on cabinets of market advisors who know fully how correction cycles work.
WILL IT HOLD THE LINE this time ?Hello ,
one of big boy players .
And my 30000 overview .
Yes I like to look far away to see whats is the haos about ........
Many many many !!!! learned that you dont play that one down ;) .... However charting can be helpfulll .
You in it ? You know why .....
Am I ?
NO .
Is there potential to Fly .. YES.....
What you see here is very simple aproach to charting using the most old simple aproach .
Can I make this complicated and get your head spin ? YES.
some fundamentals dont change .......
SUPPLY / DEMAND is one of them .
Here you can see how this price reponded to market conditions ,
Yes im talking about price at this poin only . (why) ( other metricks are out )
Deeper rabbit O >>>
ONLY one way is simply put this on Play mode and that would be the only one way to watch this develop .
This can deserve deeper brake down eventualy.
But I belive that this mode its great for the company volatility .
cheers !.
Any OPINIONS ?
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Uniswap coin Wave Analysis – 4 June 2025
- Uniswap coin reversed from resistance level 7.00
- Likely to fall to support level 5.640
Uniswap coin recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 7.00 (former strong support from February, which has been reversing the price from March).
The resistance level 7.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
Uniswap coin can be expected to fall to the next support level 5.640, which stopped the 2 previous corrections ii and (ii).
Platinum Wave Analysis – 4 June 2025
- Platinum reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1100.00
Platinum recently reversed up from the support zone between the support level 1050.00 (former multi-month high from October) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.
The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active impulse wave iii of intermediate impulse wave 3 from April.
Platinum can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1100.00, the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1140.00.
CADJPY UpdateAs anticipated, price has rejected the horizontal level and is now pulling back into a key demand zone on the H1–H4 timeframe.
I’m watching this area closely for bullish confirmation to take a long position toward the upper target zone. If bullish price action does not appear and bearish momentum continues, we could see an extended move down toward the weekly 100.00 level.
That said, I currently favor the upside scenario, with the expectation that the highlighted upper zone will be met — but only if the market confirms.
This setup is still theoretical. Patience is key — we trade based on confirmation, not assumption. Stay tuned for updates.
Ethereum is still bullish! (1D)First of all, read the text carefully to avoid any misunderstandings.you should know that the market is currently at a sensitive point, and Ethereum’s bullish move does not necessarily mean other coins will follow the same path.
As marked on the chart, the START of Ethereum’s bullish move began after a lengthy and deep correction. Observing ETH's current behavior, this wave is sharp and appears to be more of a time-based correction rather than price-based. Wave B moved sideways and took significantly more time than wave A, suggesting that wave C could very well begin without a deep pullback, pushing price toward higher levels.
There’s a liquidity pool in the upper area that we’ve highlighted. In order for this momentum to slow down, price likely needs to hunt a major liquidity level.
There was a fresh order block inside the liquidity pool, and although price touched it, there wasn’t a deep reaction | lows weren’t taken out, and all the lows during the correction have remained intact, which is a bullish signal.
It seems that price intends to at least reach the red zone we've marked.
For this scenario to play out, the two green lines near the current price candles must hold. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level would invalidate this outlook.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You