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Supply and Demand

AUDUSD Distribution pt.2I haven't been active for the last 2 days, which probably caused me to miss out on the best setups in months. There where so many setups that just completed, but anyway. The model 1 i was looking for turned out into a model 1 which gets completed with a model 2 as 2nd deviation. Since the technical target is the range low i will look for valid entrys that complete this distribution.(I don't like the supply above the range, but that should be saved for later if this model is intended to play out)
Short
by ramon_markiewitz
EURJPY Up Trend breakdown ahead selling strong now EURJPY Bearish Breakdown Alert! 🔥 The bullish trend has been broken decisively with a strong bearish engulfing candle on the 1H timeframe — sellers are now in full control! 👊 💥 Entry Level: 165.600 🎯 Technical Targets: 1st Target: 164.700 (Key Demand Zone) 2nd Target: 164.000 (Next Demand Zone) 3rd Target: 163.100 (Bullish Order Block) 📊 Watch for momentum and possible reaction at each zone — manage risk accordingly! — 🔔 Like, follow, comment, and join us for more real-time trade setups and updates! By Livia 😜 — trade smart, stay sharp! 💼📈
Short
by LIVIATRACK
1
TPR: Navigating the Ascending ChannelTechnical Analysis: Ascending Channel in Play : TPR has been consistently trading within a well-defined ascending channel since its March lows, indicating a strong intermediate-term uptrend with a clear pattern of higher lows and higher highs. Critical Resistance Test at 85-88 : The stock is currently challenging immediate intermediate resistance at $85.00 (red band). A more significant overhead resistance zone between $86.00 and $88.00 (gray band), encompassing prior highs, needs to be decisively overcome for further upside. Layered Support Structure : Immediate dynamic support is provided by the lower trendline of the ascending channel, which converges closely with a horizontal intermediate support level at $80.00. A stronger, long-term key support zone is identified between $75.00 and $77.00, bolstering the bullish structure. Projected Breakout & Upside Target : The chart suggests a potential scenario where TPR pushes through the 86-88$ resistance. A confirmed breakout could propel the stock towards its upside target of 93−95$, aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Confirmation & Risk Management: For a validated long position, a strong daily close above 88$ on increased volume would be ideal confirmation. A sustained break below the 88$ on increased volume would be ideal confirmation. A sustained break below the 75-77$ key support would invalidate the current bullish outlook and suggest a deeper correction. Fundamental & News Context: Tapestry (TPR) is a global house of luxury brands including Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman. The company benefits from resilient demand in the affordable luxury segment and the ongoing recovery in international markets, particularly China. The most significant fundamental catalyst is the proposed acquisition of Capri Holdings (parent of Versace, Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo). This move, if approved by regulators, is expected to create a diversified, global luxury powerhouse with enhanced scale and market positioning, though integration and regulatory risks remain. Strong brand performance and strategic growth initiatives underpin the long-term outlook. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
NYSE:TPRLong
by ManiMarkets
BankNifty levels - Jun 17, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve. The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior. We trust that this information proves valuable to you. * If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it. Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by sacxe
Nifty levels - Jun 17, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve. The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior. We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors. * If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it. Wishing you success in your trading activities!
NSE:NIFTY
by sacxe
USD/JPY Follow the ascending bullish from demand zone 143.000FX:USDJPY Analysis – 1H Timeframe The pair continues to respect its bullish ascending channel, gaining strong momentum from the key demand zone at 143.000. 🔹 Technical Targets Ahead: 🔸 1st Target: 144.100 – Minor Supply Zone 🔸 2nd Target: 144.900 – Key Supply Zone 🔸 3rd Target: 145.900 – Strong Resistance Level Momentum remains in favor of buyers as long as price holds above 143.000. Watch for reactions at each target zone for potential short-term pullbacks or breakout continuation. 📊 Trade smart – manage your risk! 👇 Like, follow, drop a comment, and join us for real-time updates & setups! — Livia 💹😜
Long
by LIVIATRACK
1
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower. At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year. Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory. ________________________________________ 1. What Sparked the Spike? 1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil. 2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos. 3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm. ________________________________________ 2. How Real Is the Supply Risk? While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now: • Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia. • Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.” • Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations. In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel. ________________________________________ 3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes: Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55 Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls. ________________________________________ 4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent 1. Escalation (20 % probability) • Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic • 3 mbpd disrupted for one month • Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10 • Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting 2. Containment (60 % probability) • Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed • Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July • By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65 3. Detente (20 % probability) • U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged • Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks • Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter ________________________________________ 5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying: • Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness. • PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases. • ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week. Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity. ________________________________________ 6. Cross-Asset Implications 1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology. 2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance. 3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction. ________________________________________ 7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call? • OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely. • U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way. • Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock. ________________________________________ 8. Trading and Hedging Playbook Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30 WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20 Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390 Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20 Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs. ________________________________________ 9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping: • OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y. • China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl. • India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth. On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price. ________________________________________ 10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost? 2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days 2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None 2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks. ________________________________________ 11. Outlook Summary • Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34. • Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth. • Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts. • ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end. For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
USDCAD HAS BREAKOUT THE DOWN TREND BULLISH STRONGUSDCAD Breakout Alert! | 30-Min Timeframe 🔍 The downtrend is officially broken — bulls are in control! Entry Level: 1.36400 ✅ 🎯 Technical Targets: 1st Target: 1.36700 – Key Supply Zone 2nd Target: 1.36900 – Next Supply Level 3rd Target: 1.37300 – Major Resistance Ahead Momentum is strong and favoring the upside. Watch these levels closely — perfect setup for intraday action. 📈 💬 Like, follow, and comment below. ✨ Join us for real-time updates and pro insights! — Livia 😜
Long
by LIVIATRACK
1
XAU/USD 16 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following previous bullish iBOS and subsequent printing of bearish CHoCH, price did not pullback to either M15 supply zone, or discount of internal 50% EQ, therefore, I will not mark current iBOS but will mark it in red. The reason I am not classifying this as an iBOS is, due to relative price action, the internal range would be too narrow. The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price. As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
EURUSD pullback complete – Will it rise to 1.17765 next?OANDA:EURUSD remains firmly within a well-defined uptrend channel, continuing to respect the key boundaries of the channel and showing sustained bullish momentum. The price has been consistently forming higher highs and higher lows, signaling that the uptrend is still intact. The recent pullback seems to be a healthy correction, which could pave the way for another upward move. The price is now approaching a significant support zone, defined by the lower boundary of the channel and a previous demand level. If this area holds strong, it could offer an excellent re-entry point for buyers, with the next target being 1.17765 , which coincides with the middle of the uptrend channel. As long as the price remains above this support level and the rising trendline, the bullish trend remains in play. However, any breach below these levels could signal the end of the bullish setup and open the door to a deeper pullback. Always confirm your setups and ensure appropriate risk management. Wishing you successful trades!
Long
by Jessica_Paul
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉 As previously stated, a ceasefire negotiation between Iran and Israel is not easy, and with Trump's remarks, risk aversion remains strong. From a 4-hour analysis perspective, gold's key support below continues to focus on the 3370–3360 level, while short-term resistance above pays attention to the 3410–3420 level. In terms of operations, it is temporarily mainly long within the range, and short positions can be taken if the high-resistance area is not broken. Trading Strategy: buy@3360-3370 TP:3390-3400 sell@3420-3410 TP:3390-3380 Share accurate trading signals daily—transform your life starting now! 👇 👇 👇 Obtain signals👉👉👉
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MonicaLongman
USOIL:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉 Fundamental Analysis: While Middle East tensions have temporarily eased, the risk of Iran threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz persists. An escalation could drive oil prices higher. The U.S. sustained economic strength provides some support for oil prices. U.S. retail data and crude oil API inventory changes to be released today may impact oil prices. Technical Analysis : Bollinger Bands: Middle band at 73.92, upper band at 76.81, lower band at 70.42. Current price at 72.77 is near the lower band, showing signs of support. With reference to June 5 and prior data, the MACD previously formed a death cross. Although no latest data is available, combined with price action, it may still be in a bearish trend. Trading Strategy: Consider long positions after a pullback to near 70.42 (strong support), targeting around 73.92. If price effectively breaks through 73.92, chase long positions with a further target near 76.81. buy@70-70.5 TP:73-74 Share accurate trading signals daily—transform your life starting now! 👇 👇 👇 Obtain signals👉👉👉
TVC:USOILLong
by MonicaLongman