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Support and Resistance

Chasing Oil Spikes? How Geopolitics Can Wreck SetupsOil prices surged over 12% in Asia on Middle East headlines, sparking a surge of volatility across safe-haven currencies and stock market futures during thin trade. It felt like a good time to provide food for thought to newer traders looking to chase these moves, highlight the mockery geopolitics can make of technical analysis with recent examples, and provide a filter for when the waters may be safer to reenter. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
Crude Oil DTF Technical & Fundamental AnalysisCrude Oil DTF Technical & Fundamental Analysis Oil prices surged by 6–10% within minutes, with Brent and WTI recording the largest daily gains since May 2022. This spike followed Israel's airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, which reportedly killed senior commanders and scientists. Iran, which plays a top oil player and gatekeeper of the Strait of Hormuz—a passageway for nearly 20% of global oil supply—has declared a state of emergency, and any retaliation that threatens tanker movement or damages infrastructure in key Gulf nations (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq) could push oil prices toward $120+/barrel as a risk premium is being priced in. On the technical side (DTF): Price broke the major key support level at 67.00, followed by accumulation and heavy sell positioning. As expected, price hunted for liquidity and triggered sell-side stop losses. However, due to the sudden geopolitical news, price failed to break lower and instead spiked, breaking the next minor resistance level at 72.00, indicating a change of character. Currently, we are watching for accumulation above the breakout, expecting a liquidity grab below the liquidity zone, then a move up toward distribution. Our area of interest lies at 73.40, after liquidity is formed and a minor key level is broken. Stop loss is set at 68.40 (below liquidity), and take profit at 84.20, the next minor key resistance. Fundamental Outlook: Middle East Tensions -Israel launched airstrikes on Iran targeting nuclear and military sites (Tehran, Natanz, IRGC headquarters). -Key IRGC generals and nuclear scientists reported killed. -Iran declared a state of emergency and is expected to retaliate imminently. Supply Risk – Strait of Hormuz -Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for ~20% of global oil supply. -Any military action or blockades here could immediately tighten global supply and trigger a surge toward $100–$120/barrel. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by RebornFXTrader
1
$SUI heading back to $1.50 or belowAll of crypto is about to fall significantly, most people just don't realize it yet. Many alts will fall 50%+, and coins like SUI and XRP that people feel safe in, won't escape the bearish move. Just looking at the chart, we can see that SUI broke upwards in August of last year and topped in January, and has since retested resistance at $4.05 and rejected-- forming a large lower high. It makes the most sense to me that we will now see price retest the lows that price broke out from as they never got tested on the way up. We should see price fall down to the lower support levels over the coming weeks.
COINBASE:SUIUSDShort
by benjihyam
EUR/JPY: Evening star warning as 165 holds by a threadEUR/JPY is on the cusp of confirming an evening star pattern, setting up a potential short if the price closes around current levels or lower. 165.00 remains key support. It’s already been tested today before bouncing—price behaviour we’ve seen before. It often trades through but rarely closes below with conviction, putting focus on how it trades into and out of the weekend, especially given EUR/JPY’s tendency to deliver reliable signals. A break of Monday’s low at 164.60 would allow shorts to be initiated, with a stop above 165 for protection. Initial downside targets include the 50-day moving average, 163.00, or the 200-day moving average—depending on the risk-reward profile you're after. Expect bids around 164, so be ready to square the trade if momentum stalls. If price rallies into the Friday close, the bearish setup would be invalidated. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
Gold Weekly Outlook: Bullish Breakout on DeckHello, 🪙 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook 📅 May 25 – 30, 2025 📍 Current Price: $3,355.35 📈 RSI (1D): 57.99 — Neutral to mild bullish momentum 🔮 Summary & Key Levels Gold remains bullish, supported by USD weakness, geopolitical tension, and safe-haven demand. Without hawkish shocks, expect a test of $3,440+ this week. Level Significance Likelihood $3,300 – $3,355 Support zone, dip-buying likely 🔵 High $3,355 – $3,390 Current range, mild upside grind 🟡 Moderate $3,390 – $3,440 Key resistance test 🟢 Likely if USD weak $3,440 – $3,500 Breakout extension zone 🟠 Conditional (Fed/dovish data needed) < $3,280 Bearish invalidation 🔴 Unlikely barring major USD reversal 🧭 Directional Bias: Bullish with breakout potential — driven by rising U.S. debt concerns, Fed rate cut talk, and risk aversion. 🔍 Supporting Factors US Dollar Weakness: USD dropped 1.4–2.3% vs majors; JPY & CHF gained as safe havens. Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating and weak Treasury auctions amplify fiscal stress. Trump’s tariff threats revive trade war fears, pressuring USD further. Fed & Inflation Watch: Fed speakers mixed; Waller hinted at cuts if tariffs escalate. May 31 Core PCE inflation data critical — softer print could ignite breakout. Safe-Haven Rotation: JPY & CHF strength signals risk hedging. Global tensions, equity fragility, Middle East unrest support gold demand. 🌐 Global Macro Highlights & Gold Implications Region Highlights Gold Impact 🇺🇸 US Fiscal strain, downgrade, mixed data 🟢 Bullish 🇪🇺 Eurozone Hawkish ECB, stable inflation 🟡 Mildly bullish 🇬🇧 UK Strong CPI, Brexit optimism ⚪ Neutral 🇯🇵 Japan Hawkish BoJ pivot, rising inflation 🟢 Safe-haven driver 🇨🇭 Switzerland CHF rally, deflation concerns 🟢 Risk-off tone 🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿 Mixed data, dovish bias ⚪ Commodity FX support 📅 Key Events to Watch (May 25–30) Date Event Impact on Gold Daily Fed speakers (Waller, Bostic) 🟠 Dovish tone supports gold Friday US Core PCE Inflation 🟥 Major catalyst — soft print = breakout risk Anytime Trump tariff announcements 🟥 Volatility spike = bullish catalyst Ongoing Risk sentiment & equity volatility 🟠 Supports safe-haven flows ✅ Bottom Line Gold’s technical and macro setup is strong. A push above $3,390 could open a move toward $3,440–$3,470, especially if Friday’s PCE data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Downside limited unless USD sentiment reverses sharply. The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
XAUUSD Where are we in the Wyckoff cycle?We are between Phase B and Phase C of a potential Distribution on the higher range (around $3400. Here's the breakdown: Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR) are well-formed. We are now waiting for the confirmation of the Secondary Tests and also a potential Upthrust Actions near the top around $3400 area. Next logical sweep target will be Buy-side liquidity above PDH area. Possibly creating Secondary test for confirmation. Then it should trigger a markdown phase. If distribution fails, Smart Money would invalidate the entire range with a full Breakout + Retest + Continuation above 3,400 but low probability without more volume or wars. Two scenarios here: Bearish (Higher Probability) Idea: Wait for a Secondary Test or Lower High around the resistance/POI near 3,390–3,396 Entry: Short on rejection or bearish M5 structure break after tagging that area SL: Above 3,400 (or 30-40 pips above ST candle wick) TP1 = 3377 (gap close) TP2 = 3360 (Daily Gap) TP3 = 3338 (PDL retest) 🟩 Bullish (Only if invalidation happens) Idea: If we break above 3400 clean and hold on retest, it means Phase D of Accumulation started instead. Entry: Long on retest of 3400 as support SL: Below 3400 TP: Trail it... Stay reactive around 3,390–3,396 for short opportunity only if price shows signs of failure there. By the time it took me to post this idea the price has already move up 100 pips. Trade safely!!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Med_In_Trade
Bitcoin Update + Bitcoin CME Gap CONFLUENCE POSTING FOR AWARENESS NOT TO PANIC Y'ALL, True trader will be optimistic as always and can play both sides of market. 💯 Just incase PBr1 won't hold as aggressive bounce base on my recent update, Since nandun ang possible aggressive volume sa short term PBr1 for possible breakout sa ATH i just want to tell you ahead if ever market will not respect short term PBr1 — Two Major Support are waiting below — First, 94k range area — Second, Base my own strat overall structure PBr1 support 88k - 89.5k range area will just drop this idea just incase may possible waiting area na kayo for confluence sa possible DCA or if you have a decent short swing also pwede maging confluence for your exit points. 📍 PINNED, always remember BITCOIN is just one of our major coin confluence to our altcoins trades. Trade base price action not emotion.
CME:BTC1!Short
by cryptopandaph
USDCHF Wave Analysis – 12 June 2025 - USDCHF broke support level 0.8170 - Likely to fall to support level 0.8050 USDCHF currency pair recently broke the key support level 0.8170, which stopped the previous waves B and 1, as can be seen below. The breakout of the support level 0.8170 coincided with the breakout of the daily Descending Triangle from the end of April. USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.8050 (low of the impulse wave (1) from April).
Short
by FxProGlobal
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 12 June 2025- USDCAD broke key support level 1.3630 - Likely to fall to support level 1.3500 USDCAD currency pair recently broke the key support level 1.3630, which previously formed the daily Hammer reversal pattern at the start of June. The breakout of the support level 1.3630 should accelerate the active impulse wave C of the ABC correction (2) from January. USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3500 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
Short
by FxProGlobal
EURCHF Wave Analysis – 12 June 2025- EURCHF reversed from the resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 0.9300 EURCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.9410 (which has been reversing the price from April), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from April. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the (c)-wave of the previous ABC correction ii. Given the overbought daily Stochastic, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.9300 (which stopped earlier waves b and ii).
Short
by FxProGlobal
Platinum Wave Analysis – 12 June 2025 - Platinum broke resistance zone - Platinum to rise to resistance level 1350.00 Platinum continues to rise strongly after the recent breakout of the resistance zone between the key resistance level 1200.00 and the resistance trendline of the accelerated up-channel from May. Platinum previously broke another up channel from April – which signalled the acceleration of the active impulse waves 5 and (3). Platinum can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1350.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse waves 5 and (3).
CAPITALCOM:PLATINUMLong
by FxProGlobal
1
NVIDIA (NVDA) investors should knowHello NVIDIA (NVDA) investors, Looking at the daily chart below, we see that NVDA briefly broke out of its long‑standing yellow descending channel only to be pulled back in; price is now testing horizontal support in the $100–150 range. In the lower pane, RSI remains negative and has yet to break its downtrend line around the 41 level. Technical Analysis Descending Channel: The stock has been trading inside a long‑term descending channel. Selling pushed it back inside after a false breakout near $137–142. The upper channel line sits around $115—until we see a daily close above that, a true trend reversal is unlikely. Horizontal Support/Resistance: Support: $95-100 (confluence of past lows and the channel’s lower boundary) Resistance: $147-150 (channel upper line), then $145–150 (early‑April highs) RSI: Currently ~41. A break above the RSI downtrend near 45–50 would signal improving momentum; if it fails, we could retest oversold territory. Fundamental & Macro Factors Quarterly Results: NVDA reported strong revenue and margin growth last quarter, driven primarily by AI/data‑center demand. AI & Data‑Center Demand: Demand from AI‑focused servers and cloud providers remains very high, and this secular trend is expected to persist. Trump’s Latest Tariffs: In early March 2025, an additional %145 tariff on China‑origin semiconductors was announced. This measure may raise NVDA’s export costs to China and exert short‑term margin pressure. It also risks demand swings as Chinese buyers adjust their inventory strategies. Strategic Recommendations Stop‑Loss: Consider a stop‑loss on daily closes below $90 to protect long positions. Position Sizing: Scale into longs near support, and take profits incrementally near resistance. Tariff Watch: Monitor any further U.S. export restrictions or tariff changes on China—each announcement can drive volatility -Celil Adıgüzel
NASDAQ:NVDA
by celilADIGUZEL
1