Long term Nifty Outlook Still upbeat. Long term outlook of Nifty is still upbeat. As you can see in the parallel channel in the weekly chart of Nifty. As you can see in the weekly chart Nifty attempted to break free above the Mid-Channel resistance went above it briefly but due to various geopolitical, Tariff and earning related concerns has not yet been successful. In a few years time the channel top can be around 30K and channel bottom seems to be around 21K. Supports for Nifty currently are near 24789, 24475, 23969 (Mother Line support of Weekly chart), 22920 and 21793 (Channel Bottom.) Below that 200 Weeks EMA ot the Father line is at 20577. Resistances for Nifty with long term perspective remain at 25351, 25780 and previous All time high of 26277. Once we get a weekly or monthly closing above 26277 the doors towards 27K+ will open.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Support and Resistance
Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING
In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback.
There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback.
Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend.
A pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse.
The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low.
If the impulse leg is bearish , a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high.
If the impulse leg is bullish , a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low.
Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse.
It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend.
Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses.
Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important:
1. Trend confirmation
If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend.
While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend.
Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil.
2. Entry points
Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities.
Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or Fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market.
Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD.
3. Risk management
By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit.
Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback.
Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ratio with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader.
Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities.
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PENGU Topping Out? Targeting 30% Downside After Liquidity SweepPENGU has had an explosive run, but it now looks to be nearing completion of wave 5 of its current Elliott impulse.
We’re approaching a key high at $0.04698, a likely liquidity grab zone — and potentially a great area to position for a short trade.
🧩 Short Setup Overview
➡️ Wave 5 Completion Incoming:
Price is showing signs of exhaustion as it approaches $0.04698, where liquidity is likely stacked above the previous high.
➡️ SFP Trigger Zone:
Watch for a swing failure pattern (SFP) at $0.04698 — confirmation for a potential short entry.
➡️ Psychological Resistance:
The $0.05 level also sits just above — a classic psychological barrier that may get tapped or wicked into.
🔴 Short Trade Setup
Entry: After a confirmed SFP at $0.04698–$0.05
Target (TP): Yearly Open (yOpen) — potential move of ~30%
Stop-loss: Above post-SFP high
R:R: Excellent asymmetry if setup confirms
🛠 Indicator Note
In this analysis I'm using my own indicator called "DriftLine - Pivot Open Zones ", which I recently published.
✅ It helps highlight key open levels, support/resistance zones, and price structure shifts — all critical for confluence-based trade planning.
Feel free to check it out — you can use it for free by heading to my profile under the “Scripts” tab.
💡 Educational Insight: How to Trade Wave 5 Liquidity Sweeps
Wave 5 tops often trap late longs, especially when paired with psychological levels and key highs.
➡️ Patience is key — wait for a rejection pattern or SFP before entering.
➡️ Liquidity sweeps first — then the move.
Final Thoughts
PENGU is pushing toward $0.04698–$0.05, but this may be its final move up before correction.
With the yearly open as a logical target, and clear confluence via DriftLine, this setup offers a clean short opportunity — if confirmation comes.
Stay sharp, let price lead, and trade the reaction — not the prediction.
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Potential outside week and bearish potential for HCWEntry conditions:
(i) lower share price for ASX:HCW below the level of the potential outside week noted on 4th July (i.e.: below the level of $0.72).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) above the high of the outside week on 30th June (i.e.: above $0.785), should the trade activate.
Bullish potential detected for QUBEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:QUB along with swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI.
Depending on risk tolerance, the stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) a close below the bottom of the formed channel (i.e.: below $4.20), or
(ii) below previous support of $4.11 from the open of 9th May, or
(iii) below the rising 150 day moving average (currently $4.07).
ETHW Looks Bullish (12H)Considering the CH and bullish CHs on the chart, as well as the recent reclaim of key levels, we can maintain a bullish outlook on this coin.
The targets have been marked on the chart.
If a pullback occurs to the green zone, it could present a buy/long opportunity.
A daily candle close below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bullish potential detected for MTSEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:MTS along with swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI.
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the recent swing low of 6th May (i.e.: below $3.21), or
(ii) a close below the 50 day moving average (currently $3.16), or
(ii) below the support level from the open of 11th April (i.e.: below $3.12), depending on risk tolerance.
Bullish potential detected for BOQEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:BOQ along with swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI.
Depending on risk tolerance, the stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) a close below the 50 day moving average (currently $7.83), or
(ii) below previous swing low of $7.69 from the low of 23rd June, or
(iii) below previous support of $7.60 from the open of 12th May.
$BANANA – Gift Below $30, Trend Reversal Confirmed
BINANCE:BANANAUSDT under $30 feels like a gift.
Starting to build here, and if price dips back into the purple zone, I’ll keep adding.
Monthly trend is active off the lows—this looks like a clear reversal. If it holds, I expect new highs over the next 5 months.
Not sure if $22 gets retested, but if it does, that’ll be a major area of interest.
Strong coin. Strong setup. Time to act.
XLM Explodes +132% — Is the Party Over or Just Starting?XLM has been one of the top movers, sweeping the January 2025 swing high at $0.515 before stalling and moving sideways for the past 4 days.
Is XLM gearing up for another push toward the highs, or is a correction imminent?
Let’s dive into the details.
🧩 Market Structure & Fractal Pattern
XLM skyrocketed +132% in just 13 days, mirroring the explosive move seen back in November 2024.
If we apply the November fractal, the current price action suggests we could be setting up for an ABC corrective move.
📉 Key Levels & Confluences
FVG Zone: ~$0.49–$0.50 — likely to be swept before any major move down.
Monthly Support: $0.4142
Key Level / Liquidity Pool: $0.4056 — likely cluster of stop-losses.
Anchored VWAP (from $0.2228 start of trend): currently near $0.4056, adding strong confluence.
1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension (ABC projection): If price pushes to ~$0.49 to complete wave B, the projected 1.0 TBFE for wave C lands right on the $0.4056 key level + VWAP, creating a perfect confluence zone.
➡️ Conclusion: The $0.4142–$0.4056 zone is a critical support and liquidity area with multiple confluences lining up.
Trade Setups
🔴 Short Setup:
Entry zone: $0.48–$0.50 (ladder in)
Stop-loss: Above $0.5166 (prior high)
Take-profit: $0.4142–$0.4056 zone
R:R ≈ 1:3
🟢 Long Setup:
Entry zone: $0.4142–$0.4056 (preferably near VWAP)
Stop-loss: Below $0.395
Take-profit: $0.44
⚡ Final Thoughts
Watch for a potential final push toward $0.49–$0.50 before a corrective wave unfolds.
The confluence at the $0.4142–$0.4056 zone — including monthly/weekly levels, VWAP, liquidity pool, and the 1.0 TBFE target — makes it a key area for decision-making.
Stay patient and wait for confirmation at these levels. Will post an update as things unfold!
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HBAR Game Plan: Short the Bounce, Long the Liquidity GrabHBAR has been moving strongly and is currently offering both short and long trade opportunities based on a clean potential ABC corrective pattern, key fib levels, volume profile, and anchored VWAP. Let’s break down the setup.
🧩 Technical Breakdown
Higher Timeframe Confluence:
0.618 fib retracement from the macro move
1.618 trend-based fib extension
1.272 VWAP band resistance
Point of Control (POC) from the visible range profile
This is marked as a major take profit/short opportunity zone.
For extra confluence, the negative fib extension golden pocket (-0.618 to -0.666) also aligns right at this resistance zone
Current Structure:
We’re potentially completing wave B of an ABC corrective move
Price has retraced into a high-probability short zone
🔴 Short Setup
Entry Zone:
Between the 0.702 and 0.786 fib retracement levels
Why Here?
0.702–0.786 fib retracement → short zone for reversals
Potential wave B top → setting up for a C leg down
Target (TP):
Around $0.25–$0.24, near the expected wave C completion
🟢 Long Setup
Entry Zone:
~$0.25–$0.24 area.
Why Here?
This zone is a strong confluence area:
➡️ 0.786 fib retracement
➡️ 1.0 trend-based fib extension of ABC
➡️ Anchored VWAP from the entire trend, offering dynamic support
➡️ Liquidity pool
➡️ Previous weekly Open
Plan:
Wait for price to complete wave C into this zone, then look for bullish reaction signs to enter long.
💡 Educational Insight
Why the 0.702–0.786 short zone?
These fib levels are often overlooked but are key “hidden” zones where wave B tops out before C waves.
Why anchored VWAP?
Anchored VWAP gives you dynamic institutional support/resistance, especially when aligned with fibs and liquidity.
Why wait for confirmation?
Blindly longing or shorting levels can trap you. Wait for SFPs, wick rejections, or lower timeframe structure flips to boost trade probability.
Final Thoughts
HBAR is in a highly interesting zone, offering both:
A short setup into the C wave,
And a long setup at the C wave completion, backed by multiple confluence factors.
Let the levels come to you and wait for confirmation!
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XRP Coiled in Range — Liquidity Below, Trade Setups AheadXRP has been stuck in a trading range around $3.50 for the past 5 days, offering multiple trade opportunities within the chop.
A notable short was triggered after a swing failure pattern (SFP) at the 0.666 fib retracement level near $3.563.
Now, with liquidity building to the downside, we’re watching closely for the next high-conviction setups.
🧩 Current Structure & Short Setup
🔴 Short Opportunity (Triggered):
SFP + 0.666 fib retracement at $3.563 led to rejection.
Market now shows a head & shoulders pattern forming.
Target: $3.2176 (0.618 fib retracement).
Trigger: Watch for a neckline break + retest for short confirmation.
Stop-loss: Above the right shoulder.
🟢 Long Setup:
Watching for a high-probability long around:
$3.26 → nPOC + 1.272 TBFE
$3.23 → anchored VWAP bands
This zone offers strong confluence and could act as the next launchpad.
Long Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: potential entries between $3.26–$3.22, price action needed for confirmation
Stop-loss: Below swing low at $3.1675
Target (TP): ~$3.40
✍️ Plan: Set alerts near the lows and react to price action at the zone — don’t front-run, let structure confirm.
💡 Pro Tip: Trade the Confluence, Not the Emotion
High-probability trades come from confluence, not guessing.
This setup combines nPOC, TBFE, VWAP, fib levels, and classical market structure (H&S) to map precise zones for both longs and shorts.
Let price come to you and wait for confirmation — especially in a rangebound environment where liquidity hunts are frequent.
Final Thoughts
We’re still rangebound, but liquidity is building below.
Keep an eye on the $3.26–$3.22 support zone for long entries and the H&S neckline for short breakdown confirmation.
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SUI — Structured Dip Buy Zone You Shouldn't IgnoreSUI has been technically clean, with well-respected Elliott Wave counts and fib levels.
As the broader market dips, it's time to look for sniper long entries and SUI is setting up beautifully for one around the $3.50 zone.
🧩 Key Confluence Zone: $3.50
This level offers a high-probability buy zone, backed by multiple layers of technical confluence:
0.786 Fib Retracement: $3.5029
1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension: $3.5036
Previous Trading Range POC: $3.4675
Previous Weekly Open (pwOpen): $3.494
🟢 Long Trade Setup
Entry: ~$3.500
Stop-loss: $3.4675
Target (TP): $3.85+
R:R: ~1:3
🛠 Indicator Note
In this analysis I'm using my own indicator:
➡️ DriftLine — Pivot Open Zones
It helps identify key market opens (daily, weekly, prior), which often act as magnet levels and reaction zones.
➡️ You can use it for free — just check out my profile under “Scripts” and apply it to your charts.
💡 Pro Insight: Build Trades Where Tools Agree
A single level is just noise. But when fib retracements, extensions, POCs, opens, and price structure all line up — that’s where conviction trades are made.
The more overlap, the more likely the market reacts — this setup shows just that.
Final Thoughts
SUI is approaching a technically rich zone around $3.50, and this could be one of those low-risk, high-reward long entries if confirmed by price action.
With a clean invalidation and 1:3 R:R, this is the kind of setup you want to plan — not chase.
Set your alerts, stay patient, and trade with structure. 🚀✍️
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USDCAD Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025
- USDCAD rising inside sideways price range inside
- Likely to reach resistance level 1.3800
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed from the key support level 1.3575 (which is the lower boundary of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from June).
The upward reversal from the support level 1.3575 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.3800 (upper border of this sideways price range, top of wave (2)).
S&P 500 Index Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index broke key resistance level 6300.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6500.00
S&P 500 Index recently broke the key resistance level 6300.00 (which stopped the previous waves 5 and (B), as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 6300.00 continues the active intermediate impulse wave (5) from the middle of this month.
Given the strong daily uptrend, S&P 500 Index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6500.00 (coinciding with the daily up channel from May).
Toncoin Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025- Toncoin reversed from resistance level 3.5585
- Likely to fall to support level 3.0000
Toncoin cryptocurrency recently reversed down from the key resistance level 3.5585 (which is the upper boundary of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from April).
The key resistance level 3.5585 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strongly bearish crypto sentiment seen today, Toncoin cryptocurrency can be expected to fall to the next round support level 3.0000 (former resistance from the start of July).
July 2025 - Marker DAO (MKR) to $10k before EthereumThe above forecast is predicted to strike before October 2025. Ethereum will never reach $10k in its lifetime, which a study for another post.
A 75% correction is shown on the above 6 day chart that began in March 2024. A number of compelling reasons now exist for a strong upward move.
Support and resistance
Look left, price action confirms support on past resistance, which follows a strong positive divergence. The resistance has held since May 2022. Incidentally on the topic of divergences, on the same time frame with the same settings, Ethereum prints a double negative divergence over the same period. (see below).
The trend
Both Price action and RSI resistances have broken out. RSI confirms a trend reversal on past resistance.
A Cup and Handle pattern confirmation
The forecast is derived from the Cup and Handle pattern topping out at around $10.5k, however it is not suggested to wait until this area before profits are taken.
Is it possible price action continues to print lower lows? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Ethereum 6 day double negative divergencies