Bearish till 1.35158.Price has created a bearish Type 1 dealing range on the 1 hour chart within a type 2 dealing range. This warrants bearish price action till 1.35158. My entry is at 1.35892 which lines up with both the equilibrium price level of the range as well as the consequent encroachment of the balanced price range. Furthermore, note the market maker sell model formation on the 1H chart. This poses a high probability sell set-up.
Support and Resistance
Continue to be bullish after successful adjustment of low longToday, gold opened high at 3448, and fell under pressure after touching 3452. It fell after repeatedly confirming resistance at high levels. We arranged short orders in the 3445-3450 area, successfully touched the target of 3330, and realized profit-taking. Then the market fell back to around 3409 and stabilized and rebounded. We arranged long orders and stopped profit at around 3420. Then we fell back and arranged long orders of 3385 and 3395 to take profits at 3405.
Overall, gold fell slowly after opening high, and maintained sideways consolidation in the European session. The US session continued to fall due to the easing of the geopolitical situation. At present, the focus of the evening is on the support of 3390. If it does not break after the retracement, it can still go long. Pay attention to the key pressure levels of 3410 and 3422 above. The current market is still in the adjustment stage of the upward trend. After the adjustment, it is expected to continue the upward rhythm.
Operation suggestion: Go long on gold when it falls back to around 3390-3392, with the target at 3410 and 3435.
If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
Have you seized the golden opportunity again and again?Today, the strength of gold is very weak. It only rushed up at the opening, and quickly fell below the 3400 mark. Keeping above the key point of 3400, gold continues to be bullish. Now that it has fallen below 3400, the short-term has gone out of the small-level top, and the market is no longer so strong. For our short-term operations, the short-term correction of gold prices focuses on the daily cycle MA5 support, and the weekly MA5 support is long. The rebound focuses on the 3403-3408 resistance card. The rebound can be followed by the short-term! Although gold has fallen below 3400, the short-term direction has changed, but the general direction has not changed. It is still bullish. In the future, we still have the opportunity to look at the high point of 3500, but we have to wait for the bottom to stabilize. Now we can only follow the trend. We will do what the market does.
From a technical point of view, the current macd high dead cross in 4 hours has a large volume, and the smart indicator sto is oversold, which represents the 4-hour shock trend. The current bollinger band three-track shrinkage in 4 hours also represents the range compression. At present, the upper pressure of 4 hours is located at the adhesion point of the middle rail and the moving average MA10 at 3404-3409, while the support corresponds to the moving average MA30 and MA10 near the 3380-3363 line. From the current 4 hours, if the price is to fall directly, the rebound will not exceed the 3420-3422.5 line. The current macd dead cross of the gold 1-hour line is shrinking and sticking, and the smart indicator sto is running downward, indicating that the hourly line continues to fluctuate weakly. What we need to pay attention to now is the adhesion pressure of the upper moving average MA60 and MA30 corresponding to the 3412 line. Pay attention to the resistance of 3403 in the short term. Today's short-term operation of gold recommends rebound shorting as the main, and callback long as the auxiliary, and pay attention to the support of 3380-3370 in the short term.
ETH: Breakout or Breakdown?As you can see ETH has been trading inside of this rising channel since the beginning of May. Rising channels favor a break to the downside, I've also highlighted some bearish divergence on the RSI which also points to a move down. The orange lines are long term weekly trend lines. The bottom orange line connects the 2022 lows through to the April lows, if price breaks down, expect a retest of the underside of the channel before moving down to the orange line around $1435. This would only be the third hit and third hits rarely breakdown. If it defies logic and breaks out above, look for it to move up to the top orange line around $3600, which connects the 2021 bull market highs through the march 24', May 24' and December 24' highs. If it comes into this area, it would be a 5th hit of a major weekly trendline, 5th hits have a very high probability of breaking out to the upside, if this happens it would be very bullish. In this scenario I would expect ETH to come down and test the top of said trendline as support before moving to new all-time highs. A Fibonacci retracement from the 2020 lows to the 2021 highs would put new price targets at $6,670 at the -0.382 as well as $7,800 at the -0.618.
USNAS100 - Mideast Conflict & Fed Uncertainty Pressure FuturesWall Street Futures Edge Lower Amid Prolonged Mideast Conflict
U.S. stock index futures slipped slightly on Tuesday as the ongoing Middle East conflict entered its fifth day, weighing on global sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.
Technical Outlook:
Price action remains in a sensitive zone, but the bias stays bearish below 21930.
🔻 A confirmed 1H close below 21790 would likely trigger a deeper move toward 21635, and potentially 21470.
🔺 On the upside, a break above 21930 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, opening the path toward 22065 and 22200.
📌 If price holds above 21790, a test of 21930 is likely.
Any positive geopolitical developments or ceasefire negotiations could spark a stronger upside move.
Key Levels:
• Pivot: 21790
• Resistance: 21930 / 22065 / 22200
• Support: 21635 / 21470 / 21375
Bullish Trend Remains IntactNatural Gas has been trading inside this rising channel for just over 2 years now. Tested the bottom of this channel for most of this year, now it’s looking to go back up to the top of the channel once again. I would stay long until it hits the top of the channel, unless it closes above the top of the channel on a weekly basis in which case that would be very bullish and I would stay long.
US30 Consolidates Amid Geopolitical UncertaintyUS30 Overview – Market Caught Between Geopolitical Risk and Technical Boundaries
The ongoing Middle East crisis continues to weigh on market sentiment, keeping US30 (Dow Jones) in a consolidation phase.
Technical Outlook:
Price is currently trading between 42160 and 42410.
As long as it holds above 42160, a move toward 42410 remains likely.
🔺 A break and stability above 42410 would confirm bullish momentum toward 42810.
🔻 A break below 42160 opens the door for a decline toward 41780, with further downside potential.
Key Levels:
• Pivot: 42410
• Support: 42160 / 41780 / 41310
• Resistance: 42610 / 42810 / 43210
XAUUSD: The beginning of range trading.Last week, I perfectly predicted the sharp rise in the market. At the beginning of this week, XAUUSD reached a high of 3451, which is the front pressure position. Due to the cooling of risk aversion in the international market, the New York market fell back to 3373 on Monday.
XAUUSD did experience a typical "news-driven callback", and the analysis of technical and fundamental aspects is very critical. The following is a professional analysis and operation suggestions for the current market:
Key points and technical structure
1. Pressure level: 3450 area
- The previous high pressure is effective. This is the resonance resistance area of the upper track of the daily level channel + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, and the demand for long profit-taking is concentrated.
2. Support level: 3370-3380 area
- Currently falling back to 3373, here is:
- 50-day moving average dynamic support
- 4-hour chart previous low level support platform
- Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level
- If the daily closing is above 3380, the technical structure is still a healthy correction.
News-driven logic
- Negative factors:
Geopolitical situation and peace talks ➜ Risk aversion cools down ➜ Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset decreases.
- Potential risks:
The progress of peace talks may be repeated (such as the situation between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine). If the negotiations fail, safe-haven buying will return quickly. Need to keep an eye on news sources.
Key signals for long-short game
Long signal: long lower shadow candlestick appears in 3370 area, US dollar index (DXY) falls below 105.0
Short signal: rebound fails to break through 3400 integer mark, US bond yield rises above 4.3%
Trading strategy suggestion
- *Long order opportunity*: 3370-3380 light position to try long, stop loss 3355 (below the previous low), target 3400/3420.
- *Short order opportunity*: 3415-3425 to arrange short orders in batches, stop loss 3440, target 3390.
2: Break down
- Trigger condition: daily closing price <3365
The callback is upgraded to a deep correction
- Target: 3340→ 3300 (psychological barrier + trend line support)
- Operation: Chasing short needs to wait for a rebound to around 3400, stop loss 3420.
3: Restart the rise (probability 10%)
- Trigger condition: Break through 3440 and stand firm for 1 hour
- Possible driving force: Geopolitical conflict escalates/Fed rate cut expectations rise
- Target: 3480 (historical high psychological resistance) → 3500
- Operation: After breaking through 3440, step back to 3425 to chase longs, stop loss 3405.
Key event risks this week
1. Wednesday: US May CPI data (core CPI expected to be 3.5%)
- If data > expectations: expectations of rate hikes rise → bearish for gold
- If data < expectations: expectations of rate cuts come earlier → bullish for gold
2. Thursday: Fed interest rate decision + Powell press conference
- Pay attention to the dot plot's hints on the number of rate cuts in 2024 (current market pricing is about 2 times)
3. Geopolitical headlines: progress in the Iran nuclear agreement, black swan risks in the French election
Position management principles
1. Total risk exposure ≤ 5% of account net value
2. Reduce positions by 50% 3 hours before key events (avoid instantaneous fluctuations in CPI/FOMC)
3. Breakout strategy stop loss setting: 15 points outside the previous high/low to prevent burrs
Conclusion: The effectiveness of the current 3373 support needs to be verified by Wednesday's CPI data. It is recommended that the London market operate in the 3370-3420 range and reduce positions before the US market to wait for data guidance. If you hold long positions, 3380 is the last line of defense; if you hold short positions, consider taking profits in batches above 3400. The medium-term bullish trend of gold has not been broken, but the risk aversion premium needs to be digested in the short term.
If you need a more detailed entry point analysis or position management to solve your long-term loss problem, please feel free to tell me your trading cycle and risk preference, and I will provide you with a customized strategy.
EUR/USD - continue with the UptrendOn EUR/USD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.14390.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
WTI US OIL 17 JUNE 2025 TRADE IDEAThe WTI Crude Oil (US Oil Spot) chart shows price action still trading within a long-term descending channel, bounded by dynamic resistance and support dating back to mid-2022. Currently, price has bounced strongly off the $67–$58 demand zone, rallying toward the descending trendline around $76–$78, which also aligns with key historical supply levels. This area poses a significant challenge for bulls and may trigger short-term rejection. However, the recent impulsive bullish leg suggests renewed demand, possibly driven by geopolitical uncertainty and speculation of potential supply disruption.
From a Smart Money Concept (SMC) perspective, WTI recently swept liquidity below the $58.69 low and formed a bullish Change of Character (ChoCH) as price broke through short-term structure levels. This confirms that smart money may have accumulated long positions in the discount zone. The rally targeting the $76.77–$78.30 range appears to be part of a mitigation move toward a supply zone, and traders may anticipate either a reversal or continuation depending on how price reacts near that level.
Macro & Geopolitical Context:
This bullish momentum in crude oil comes amid elevated tension between Iran and Israel, which historically injects volatility into energy markets. Any escalation could threaten oil production or export routes in the Middle East, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant percentage of global oil supply flows. Such events can drive speculative and fundamental buying in oil, pushing prices higher in anticipation of reduced supply. However, oil traders must also remain aware of OPEC+ policy decisions and U.S. inventory data, which can quickly shift sentiment.
Trade Outlook:
Bias: Bullish until $76–$78 zone; watch for rejection or breakout.
Entry: Pullback entries between $70–$71 with bullish confirmation are ideal.
Stop Loss: Below $66 or invalidation at $64 (below structure support).
Take Profit: Conservative TP around $76.77; extended target at $78.30–$79.37.
Alternative View: Strong rejection at the descending trendline may result in a return to the $67 or even $58 support if risk-off sentiment declines or supply concerns ease.
In summary, oil is currently reacting to both technical and geopolitical catalysts. While the technical structure suggests a short- to medium-term bullish move toward the upper channel resistance, sustained upside will depend heavily on how the Iran–Israel conflict unfolds, and whether market participants anticipate further disruptions to global oil supply.
Gold has recently broken below its 4-hour bullish Fair Value GapGold Market Analysis (In-depth & Strategic Overview):
Gold has recently broken below its 4-hour bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is currently trading beneath its Consequent Encroachment (CE) level — a signal that short-term bullish momentum has weakened.
In the latest 4H candle, the market swept the liquidity resting below the previous day's lows, a classic move to trap early sellers and collect stop-losses. Right after this liquidity grab, the price touched the daily bullish FVG, found support there, and then managed to close back inside the 4H FVG. This action reflects a temporary defense by buyers — but the battle is far from over.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$3401: This is a critical resistance level. If the market successfully closes above $3401, it could signal a bullish continuation, paving the way for an upward move.
$3389: This is a crucial support level. If price breaks below $3389, it would likely lead to further downside movement, opening the door for deeper corrections.
⏳ Current Strategy:
The best move right now is to wait and watch how the market reacts to these key levels. A breakout above $3401 would confirm strength and potential bullish continuation. Conversely, a breakdown below $3389 could trigger a fresh wave of selling pressure.
🚨 Until one of these levels is clearly broken, the market may remain in a state of indecision or range-bound movement.
🔍 Always DYOR – Do Your Own Research!
Stay informed, manage your risk wisely, and avoid emotional decisions.
Gold is expected to hit 3410-3420 againBecause of the news that Iran hopes to ease the hostile relationship with Israel, gold fell sharply in the short term, then rebounded after touching 3383, and quickly recovered above 3390. From this point of view, the buying support below is strong, and the market sentiment is still high, which limits the downside of gold, and the support of 3390-3380 area is still valid.
Although the bullish momentum of gold has weakened relatively due to the retracement in the short term, as long as gold remains above 3380, it still maintains a strong upward structure; and the retracement only exacerbates the short-term shock trend. Gold is still likely to maintain a shock upward structure and try to touch the 3410-3420 area again. Once gold breaks through 3420 strongly, it is expected to hit the area near 3450 again.
So for short-term trading, I still hold a long position in gold, and there is still a certain profit now. I have to say that if gold can reach the 3410-3420 area as expected, our profits will increase significantly!
Continue to try to short gold,It's expected to touch 3355-3345 Gold has broken through 3380 twice, but recovered quickly, indicating that the bulls still have some defensive power. At present, gold has touched 3400 again; it can be seen that the bulls' potential defense is still good, but it is not enough to support the continued rebound of gold in the short term. Obviously, gold is still under pressure in the 3410-3420 area in the short term. If gold cannot break through this resistance area in the short term, gold may continue to maintain a volatile state and continue to seek strong support downward. Only after gold breaks through the 3410-3420 area, it is expected to continue to rise and touch the area near 3450 again.
When gold tested the support near 3380 several times during the day and tried to break through this area, after gold failed to break through the 3410-3420 area in the short term, I think gold will be more likely to choose a downward direction, or even continue to test the 3355-3345 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, before breaking through the 3410-3420 area, we should not chase gold too much, and we can try to short gold in this area appropriately.
GOLD Eyes New Highs Amid Geopolitical Risk and Bullish StructureGOLD – Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold, Eyes on New Highs if Tensions Escalate
Gold futures pared some gains after approaching fresh record highs earlier in the session. The metal rallied strongly on Friday as escalating Middle East tensions — particularly between Israel and Iran — drove investors toward safe-haven assets.
Analysts note that if the conflict intensifies further in the coming days, new highs could be within reach for gold.
Technical Outlook:
A short-term correction toward 3404 or 3390 is likely. However, as long as the price holds above this support zone, the bullish trend is expected to continue toward 3448, with potential to reach 3486.
For a bearish shift, the price must break below the 3391–3381 area with at least a confirmed 1H close, which would open the path toward 3347.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 3431, 3449, 3486
• Support: 3404, 3391, 3381
US100 is Currently trading in a clear bullish zoneUS100 Technical & Fundamental Outlook (4H Timeframe)
The US100 is currently trading in a clear bullish zone on the 4-hour chart. Despite underlying pressure due to cautious market sentiment, the index shows signs of resilience Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist but have yet to spark panic selling. Market uncertainty remains high ahead of this week's anticipated Federal Reserve outlook.
Technical View:
The index is showing strength, and a 4H candle close above the 22,000 level would be a significant bullish signal. A confirmed breakout above this level opens the door to the next potential target at 22,500
If you like this idea if find more better analysis from our team we need support from You Guys.
SPX500 Under Pressure Amid Renewed Israel-Iran TensionsSPX500 Overview
Israel-Iran Truce Hopes Collapse
Investor hopes for a swift de-escalation between Israel and Iran were quickly shattered as both sides resumed hostilities. The situation intensified further after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranian civilians to evacuate Tehran and abruptly ended his participation at the G7 summit, reportedly convening the U.S. National Security Council.
These developments have fueled broad risk-off sentiment across markets.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 remains under bearish pressure as long as the price trades below 6010. A continued drop toward the key support at 5966 is likely, with a break below this level potentially opening the path to 5938 and 5902.
However, if the price stabilizes above 5966 without breaking it, we may see a rebound attempt toward 6010 and 6041.
Any signs of negotiation or de-escalation in the conflict could trigger a strong bullish reversal.
Support: 5966, 5938, 5902
Resistance: 6041, 6098, 6143
Gold maintains bullish trend
💡Message Strategy
Gold rebounded in shock before the US market, and the market rose. Previously, gold recorded the largest single-day drop in a month (1.4%) on Monday. After the sudden situation in the Middle East and US President Trump's warning to Tehran, the market's risk aversion demand heated up again, pushing gold prices to rebound in the Asian session.
The two-day interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve has also become the top priority of the market. Tensions in the Middle East have heated up again. According to Reuters, Israel's air strikes on Iran's state-run TV station, Iran's threats to launch the most violent missile attack in history, and the fire of three oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have caused market concerns about the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. US President Trump left the G7 summit early and convened a national security meeting, which increased market risk aversion.
At the same time, ETF holdings have increased significantly. Data shows that ETFs increased their gold holdings by 136,000 ounces on the previous trading day, and the net purchase volume has reached 6 million ounces this year, reflecting that funds still have strong confidence in the future of gold. SPDR Gold ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of US$285 million last Friday, the largest scale in weeks.
In the US macroeconomics, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but the focus is on Powell's speech and changes in the dot plot. As expectations of further interest rate cuts in 2025 heat up, the US dollar is still under pressure near a three-year low, and analysts believe that this will form structural support for gold in the medium term.
📊Technical aspects
The gold daily candlestick chart shows that the current trend is in a typical "rising wedge" pattern. Prices have been rising steadily along an upward trend line this year, while the upper side is suppressed by strong resistance in the 3420-3430 area. The current market is in a wait-and-see state.
The current gold market sentiment is in a "highly sensitive" stage. On the one hand, risk aversion once pushed gold to rebound rapidly, reflecting the market's extremely high pricing sensitivity to geopolitical risks; on the other hand, traders are still uncertain about the outlook for the Fed's policy, and the expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged has been fully priced in, but there are large differences in the future path of interest rate cuts.
If the results of the FOMC meeting are hawkish or Powell sends a signal that there will be no interest rate cut, and the market's risk aversion sentiment eases, gold may fall back to the key support area of 3350-3360 US dollars. Traders are closely watching the changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical situation, and at the same time be alert to the risks of "false breakthroughs" and sharp pullbacks.
💰 Strategy Package
Trend: Upward trend
Support: Around 3360.00
Resistance: Around 3420.50
Long Position:3365-75
Stop loss at 3350, take profit around 3400-3420, and trailing stop loss of 300 points.
XAUUSD Daily outlook plus trade set up 16th junhey fellows Gold currently at key support level zone 3370 to 3385 , 1hr candle has got a huge rejection from this key support area , price likely to tap 3360 then we can think of buying there after break of structure on 15m / 5m
#XAUUSD #SND #SNR #Gold #technical #analysis
AUDCAD: Pullback From Resistance Confirmed 🇦🇺🇨🇦
AUDCAD is going to retrace from a key intraday horizontal resistance.
A local bearish CHoCH and an imbalance on an hourly time frame
provide a strong bearish confirmation.
Goal - 0.88445
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Trading Recommendations for the BTC/USDU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated yesterday that USD-backed stable coins could reach a market capitalization of $2 trillion or more. His remarks indicate growing governmental interest in cryptocurrencies, particularly stable coins, as a potentially vital component of the future financial system. Bessent emphasized that with proper regulation, stable coins could enhance payment efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and expand access to financial services for millions of people.
He also noted that stable coins could help broaden the global use of the U.S. dollar and that congress is advancing legislation requiring such coins to be backed by high-quality assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.
It's worth noting the U.S. Senate yesterday voted 68 to 30 to pass the Stable coin Regulation Act, bringing it closer to final approval. If enacted, the legislation could lead to a 10x increase in stable coin supply over the next for years - up to $2 trillion. As a result, stable coin issuers may acquire up to $1.6 trillion in U.S. government bonds for their reserves.
As for the medium-term strategy , I will continue to capitalize on deep pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating continuing the broader bullish market trend.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario 1: Buy Bitcoin today on a break above $108,1000, with a target of $108,700. Exit the buy position near $108,700 and open a short on the pullback. Before buying, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.
Scenario 2: Buy from the lower boundary of $107,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, aiming for a reversal back to $108,100 and $108,700.
Sell Scenario
Scenario 1: Sell Bitcoin today from $107,500, targeting $106,800. Exit shorts at $106,800 and consider buying on the bounce. Confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.
Scenario 2: Sell from the upper boundary at $108,100 if there is no follow-through breakout, targeting $107.500 and $106,800.