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DXY Ready to Reload? Eyes on 99.100 as Tariff Tensions Ease!!Hey Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, we're closely monitoring the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 99.100 zone. After trending lower for a while, the dollar index has successfully broken out of its downtrend and is now entering a corrective phase. We’re watching the 99.100 support/resistance area closely, as it aligns with a key retracement level making it a strong candidate for a bullish reaction. On the fundamental side, Friday's NFP data came in slightly above expectations, which is typically USD-positive. In addition, recent Trump-led de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff tensions is another supportive factor for the dollar. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
11
Can P&G Weather the Economic Storm?Procter & Gamble, a global leader in consumer goods, currently faces significant economic turbulence, exemplified by recent job cuts and a decline in its stock value. The primary catalyst for these challenges stems from the Trump administration's tariff policies, which have directly impacted P&G's supply chain by increasing costs for raw materials and finished goods imported from China. This financial burden, estimated to be hundreds of millions of dollars, compels P&G to reassess sourcing strategies, enhance productivity, and potentially raise product prices, risking a reduction in consumer demand. In response to these escalating pressures and a noticeable slowdown in category growth rates within the U.S., P&G has initiated a substantial restructuring program. This includes the elimination of up to 7,000 jobs, representing approximately 15% of its non-manufacturing workforce, over the next two years. The company also plans to discontinue sales of certain products in specific markets as part of its broader strategic adjustments. These decisive measures aim to safeguard P&G's long-term financial algorithm, although executives acknowledge they do not alleviate immediate operational hurdles. Beyond the direct impact of tariffs, a pervasive sense of economic uncertainty and declining consumer confidence in the U.S. further complicates P&G's operating environment. Recent data indicates a sustained drop in consumer sentiment, directly influencing discretionary spending and prompting households to become more cautious with their purchases. This shift, combined with broader negative economic indicators such as rising jobless claims and increased layoffs across various sectors, creates a challenging landscape for companies reliant on robust consumer spending. P&G's immediate future hinges on its strategic agility in mitigating tariff impacts, managing pricing, and adapting to a volatile economic climate.
NYSE:PGShort
by UDIS_View
What is the TACO trade in forex trading? The “TACO trade” – short for “Trump Always Chickens Out” – originated in equity markets but is equally relevant in forex. The pattern is simple: Trump signals aggressive tariffs, markets react and then reverse when the threat is walked back. One example: In May 2025, the U.S. dollar weakened sharply after Trump announced a 50% tariff on EU imports. EUR/USD rallied to 1.1440 as traders priced in slower U.S. growth. But just days later, the Trump delayed the tariffs to July, and the dollar quickly regained ground. For forex traders, the TACO trade strategy is about timing: entering on initial panic and exiting on the rollback. That said, it’s not without risk. If tariffs are actually enforced, the dollar’s decline may be more prolonged. And with markets increasingly aware of this pattern, reactions may become less predictable.
by BlackBull_Markets
Do bulls have enough steam to drive gold higher?A lot of things to consider this week, a lot of data and geopolitical tensions. Will the economic uncertainty and potential bad US jobs data drive TVC:GOLD higher? Let's dig in. FX_IDC:XAUUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:GOLD
by Marketscom
8
Japan core inflation hits two-year high, yen gains groundThe yen is higher on Friday. Iin the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.63, down 0.37% on the day. Tokyo core CPI climbed to 3.6% y/y in May, up from 3.4% in April and above the market estimate of 3.5%. This marked the highest level since Jan. 2025. Tokyo core inflation is viewed as the leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food, was driven higher due to due higher non-fresh food prices, particularly rice which has soared 93% over the past year. The jump in core CPI bolsters the case for a BoJ rate hike. The markets had anticipated a rate hike in October but today's strong inflation report could accelerate the timing of the next rate hike. At the same time, the uncertainty caused by US trade policy may force the BoJ to delay any rate hikes until the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy becomes clearer. US President Trump's controversial tariffs have sent the financial markets on wild swings. Now, US courts are weighing in on whether Trump exceeded his authority when he imposed the tariffs. A trade court panel ruled this week that most of the tariffs were illegal but on Thursday, an appeals court granted the Trump administration a temporary pause, keeping the tariffs in effect. The legal fight over the tariffs has just begun and could go all the way to the US Supreme Court. In the meantime, the legal challenge has blown a hole in Trump's tariff policy and is causing even more uncertainty in the financial markets.
by OANDA
1
The tariff legal zig-zagWith different US courts firing "shots" at each other over the legality of tariffs, the market is taking a bit of a pause from accelerating further. Let's dig in! DJ:DJI TVC:SPX TVC:NDQ TVC:DXY Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
New Zealand central bank sees less growth, FOMC says it will remThe New Zealand dollar declined as much as 0.67% earlier but has recovered. In the European session, NZDS/USD is trading at 0.5969, up 0.04% on the day. A day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, Governor Christian Hawkesby testified before a parliamentary committee on Thursday. Hawkesby said the central bank could hold rates in July and that rate decisions would be data-dependent. The Governor said he expected slower global growth would dampen New Zealand's recovery and there was uncertainty around the impact of the US tariffs. The RBNZ has been aggressive, chopping 225 basis points in the current easing cycle, which has brought the cash rate down to 3.25%, its lowest level in almost three years. At yesterday's meeting, the RBNZ said that the cash rate was currently in a neutral zone, where it neither stimulates nor curbs economic growth. FOMC minutes: Increasing uncertainly could mean "difficult tradeoffs" In the FOMC minutes of the May 7 meeting, members expressed concern about the government's fiscal and trade policy. Members said that "uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further", making it appropriate to remain cautious until these policies became clearer. Members warned that if inflation remained high and growth and employment weakened, the Fed might have to make "difficult tradeoffs". There was another twist to the Trump tariffs saga as the US Court of International Trade declared the tariffs illegal. The Court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing wide-sweeping tariffs against US trading partners. The decision puts a hold on the tariffs, but that may not last long as the US Justice Department has filed an appeal.
by OANDA
2
Australian inflation higher than expected, Aussie extends lossesThe Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6415 in the North American session, down 0.44% on the day. Australia's inflation rate remained unchanged in April at 2.4% y/y for a third straight month, matching the lowest rate since Nov. 2024. The reading was slightly higher than the market estimate of 2.3% but remained within the central bank's inflation target of 2%-3%. Trimmed mean inflation, the central bank's preferred indicator for underlying inflation, edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in March. The inflation report was mildly disappointing in that inflation was hotter than expected. Underlying inflation has proven to be persistent which could see the Reserve Bank of Australia delay any rate cuts. The markets have responded by lowering the probability of a rate cut in July to 62%, compared to 78% a day ago, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. A key factor in the July decision will be the second-quarter inflation report in late July, ahead of the August meeting. The Reserve Bank lowered rates last week by a quarter-point to 3.85%, a two-year low. The central bank left the door open to further cuts, as global trade uncertainties are expected to lower domestic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its May 7 meeting later today. At the meeting, the Fed stressed that it wasn't planning to lower rates anytime soon and the minutes are expected to confirm the Fed's wait-and-see stance. US President Trump has been zig-zagging on trade policy, imposing and then cancelling tariffs on China and the European Union. Fed Chair Powell said at the May meeting that the economic uncertainty due to tariffs means that the appropriate rate path is unclear and that message could be reiterated in the Fed minutes.
by OANDA
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 27–30, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 27–30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Tax-and-Debt Debate Rattles Markets Washington’s push to advance a massive tax-cut and spending bill—projected to add $3.8 trillion to an already $36.2 trillion debt—has investors questioning U.S. fiscal discipline. The dollar weakened further, while Treasury yields remain elevated on credit-rating concerns and deficit fears ⚖️ Trump Delays EU Tariffs, Lifts Sentiment President Trump pushed back 50% tariffs on EU goods from June 1 to July 9 after talks with EU leaders. U.S. futures jumped, and global markets breathed easier despite lingering trade-policy uncertainty 📈 Bond Yields Spike, Then Stabilize Both 20- and 30-year Treasury yields jumped above 5.1% before easing slightly as auction demand picked up. Fed officials signaled they expect to hold rates steady for the next two meetings, putting a floor under yields 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 28: 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence (May) 📅 Wednesday, May 29: 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending (April) 📅 Thursday, May 30: 8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (April) 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales (April) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$ETH - Ethereum enters buy zoneHey traders! How is your portfolio doing? Trump is shaking us! After all these months in 2025 I've tried to project a new scenario (bullish/bearish) that clarifies our next outlook. Not an easy job. As you see day by day, markets are in high volatility due to trade war and (not trying to be pesimistic) could be worse. However, In my opinion Ethereum (and altcoin markets) are entering into a golden opportunity. that has to be taken 100%. Don't know where is the bottom for CRYPTOCAP:ETH on a short scenario. But, what I can certainly say is that won't fall as a stone for too long. Ranges between 1400 - 2000 USD are gold prices to make progressives buys. Although it could fall even more ( 900 - 1200 USD) I think this is a high Risk reward buy. But, timing is not on time. Shouldn't I sell, expecting a bear market( you know Halving and Posthalving ideas). Times have changed as the macro scenario has not been the same as the previous bullruns. So, it's time to accumulate and expect a possible expansion cycle in 2026.. That could lead Ethereum to prices never seen before. Yes, the range between 8.000 - 15.000 USD. As I always say. Just my opinion. Stay safe!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Infamousmoneot
1
$SFM : Stock with no Tariff exposure and good momentumNASDAQ:SFM : We are revising this stock one more time in our blog series. Sprout Farmers Market NASDAQ:SFM is a retailer which sell high quality food with higher margin in good localities and the best part is the products are locally produced and sourced. This makes it immune to the tariff discussions ongoing in the market. Hence, we have seen relative strength in the $SFM. There are very few stocks in S&P 500 which are at or above the ATH. NASDAQ:SFM touched its ATH of 178 $ on 28th April amidst the tariff discussion. Currently @ 163 $ SFM has a RSI of 60 which is not in overbought territory. In the chart below we plot the upward slopping regression channel and we see that the stock is currently sitting at the mid-point of this cannel and the 20 Day SMA is above the 50 Day, 100 Day and 200 Day SMA indicating positive momentum in the stock. The lower bound of the parallel channel is always above the 200 Day SMA indicating strong institutional long term holding capability. We like these kind of stocks which have great technical and good fundamentals with strong institutional holdings. Verdict : Buy NASDAQ:SFM @ 150 $ and DCA @ 160 $. Year end target 200 $
NASDAQ:SFMLong
by RabishankarBiswal
Pound steady as UK inflation surgesThe British pound posted gains earlier but has failed to consolidate. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3395, up 0.03% on the day. The pound has gained 1.1% this week and earlier today rose as high as 1.3468, its highest level since Feb. 2022. UK inflation jumped to 3.5% y/y in April, up sharply from 2.6% in March and above the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the highest annual inflation rate since Jan. 2024 and was driven by higher prices for transport, housing and energy. Monthly, inflation soared to 1.2%, up from 0.3% and above the market estimate of 1.1%. The news wasn't much better from core CPI, which rose to 3.8% from 3.4% and was higher than the market estimate of 3.6%. This was the highest reading since April 2024. Monthly, the core rate jumped to 1.4%, up from 0.5% and above the market estimate of 1.2%. The rise in inflation can be partially attributed to the increase in the energy price cap and the Easter holidays, but is a disappointment for the government and for the Bank of England, as inflation had been trending lower. The BoE will be concerned by the rise in core inflation, which will complicate plans to further reduce rates. The BoE trimmed the cash rate by a quarter-point earlier this month by 0.25%, but rates are still higher than other major central banks, with the exception of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see attitude before it lowers rates again, especially with the uncertainty swirling around US tariff policy. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said this week that even reduced tariffs would be "definitely economically significant" and said he favored one rate cut this year.
by OANDA
VAGX ETF: A Hidden Gem in an Era of Economic UncertaintyIn a world of shifting economic tides, investors are constantly searching for assets that offer both stability and growth potential. The Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF (VAGX) may be one such opportunity, quietly accumulating strength amid global economic fluctuations. Understanding VAGX ETF’s Accumulation Phase VAGX tracks the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Float Adjusted and Scaled (CHF Hedged) index, which includes a diversified mix of corporate and government bonds. Since its inception in September 2021, the ETF has steadily grown, accumulating assets and reinvesting interest income to enhance long-term value. With 8,891 holdings and a low expense ratio of 0.10%, it offers broad exposure to global fixed-income markets. Macroeconomic Landscape: Tariffs, Inflation, and Interest Rates The global economy is at a critical juncture, with policy shifts and trade tensions shaping investment strategies. Key factors influencing VAGX’s potential include: Tariffs & Trade Tensions: Recent tariff escalations have heightened uncertainty, impacting global trade and economic growth. This environment makes bond-based ETFs like VAGX attractive as investors seek stability. Inflation Trends: Inflation is projected to moderate slightly in 2025, but remains a concern for central banks. Bond ETFs, particularly those with investment-grade holdings, can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures. Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates has been influenced by inflation and trade policies. While rate cuts may be delayed, fixed-income assets like VAGX can provide a reliable store of value in uncertain times. Why VAGX Could Be a Strong Long-Term Holding Diversification: Exposure to global bonds mitigates risk compared to single-market investments. Accumulating Nature: Interest income is reinvested, compounding returns over time. Hedged Against Currency Fluctuations: CHF hedging reduces volatility from exchange rate movements. Low Expense Ratio: At 0.10%, it remains cost-efficient for long-term investors. Final Thoughts As the global economy navigates inflationary pressures, trade uncertainties, and interest rate shifts, VAGX ETF stands out as a stable, accumulating asset with strong long-term potential. Investors looking for a reliable store of value and gradual appreciation may find this ETF an attractive addition to their portfolios. SIX:VAGX INDEX:BTCUSD SP:SPX TVC:DXY OANDA:XAUUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD $ EURONEXT:N100 SIX:SMI TVC:SXY
SIX:VAGXLong
by CassianDrake
Euro jumps as Eurozone core CPI risesThe euro is sharply higher on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1250, up 0.79% on the day. Eurozone headline inflation was confirmed at 2.2% y/y and 0.6% m/m in April, unchanged from the preliminary estimates. The core rate was also confirmed at 2.7% y/y and 1% m/m. Services inflation rose to 3.9% from 3.5%. The European Central Bank will be pleased that inflation was unchanged in the final April release but remains concerned about services inflation, which remains persistently high. The ECB trimmed its key rate by a quarter point to 2.25% last month and meets next on June 5. The markets have priced in another rate cut, as the ECB looks to take advantage of stable inflation and lower rates in order to boost economic growth. The ECB can be expected to be cautious with its rate path and continue its data-driven approach. There is much uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs, which has made it difficult for the ECB to make inflation and growth projections. What is clear is that eurozone growth has taken a hit from the tariffs and the outlook and the outllook for global growth has been revised downwards. The damage from the tariffs could be mitigated if the US and China can reach an agreement which removes the tariffs betweeen them. The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy has also pushed the Federal Reserve into a wait-and-see stance, despite Trump's loud calls for a rate cut. The Fed held rates at this month's meeting and is widely expected to stay on the sidelines again in June. The Fed is waiting for more clarity on the tariff front, but any surprises from inflation or employment data could have a signifcant impact on rate policy.
by OANDA
Food Prices Since Liberation Day - Is Up with Tariffs or PausedWhat is happening to the food prices since liberation day. Soybeans are a benchmark for food prices — not only because China and many of us consume large quantities, but also because the U.S. exports a significant amount to China. After the Liberation Day announcement on 2nd April, soybean prices initially dropped but quickly rebounded and surged higher. Even after a successful trade agreement between the U.S. and China — which reduced reciprocal tariffs for 90 days — soybean prices continued to climb. So why do food prices seem to trend higher, whether tariffs are in place or paused? Micro Soybean Futures Ticker: MZS Minimum fluctuation: 0.0050 per bushel = $2.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.sweetlogin.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by konhow
2
Tariffs Shocked the World, But Look What Happened NextTrump's “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in the S&P 500 on the 2nd April. A classic policy shock! But the market has since clawed back every point. So what now? Let’s break it down by strategy. 🔎 Long-Term Investors: Stay the Course 1) This recovery reinforces one truth: When you own quality businesses, Volatility ≠ Risk. Policy creates opportunity, not exit signals. 2) Stick with great companies, buy on fear, and ignore the noise. The next 10 years won’t be won by panic. ⚡ Momentum Traders: Technical Reversal Delivered 1) S&P 500 bounced above its 30-day MA. With the May 12th’s bullish gap (post temporary tariff pause) confirming the trend shift. 2) This was a textbook momentum setup. But if you didn’t plan for the whipsaw, you missed the edge. 📈 What This Means Now Short-term volatility is likely to continue as tariffs, rates, and elections are all on the table. Watch for pullbacks into structure and keep risk tight as news-driven moves will be fast and brutal. Choose your timeframe. Respect the trend. Don’t confuse noise with signal. The edge now isn’t in prediction — it’s in preparation.
SP:SPX
by JinDao_Tai
An Unharmonious Outlook for the New WeekGold Bullish? Sure, go ahead, but let me explain where we are and so on... 🤔 1. Newswise 📰 Tariffwar: Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have intensified following President Trump's tariff hikes. The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, while China retaliated with tariffs up to 125% on U.S. goods. Despite these escalations, both countries have engaged in high-level negotiations in Geneva, aiming to de-escalate the situation. However, a recent abrupt withdrawal by the Chinese delegation has cast doubt on the progress of these talks. Analysts caution that even if an agreement is reached, it may offer only temporary relief, leaving markets exposed to prolonged trade tensions. Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates: President Donald Trump has been vocal in his criticism of the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, calling Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “fool” for not lowering them. 😡 Trump argues that with falling energy prices, stable employment, and low inflation, the Fed should cut rates to stimulate economic growth. 📉 The Federal Reserve, however, remains cautious. 🏦 Officials have expressed concerns that recent tariffs could increase inflation, making premature rate cuts risky. They emphasize the need for clearer economic data before making further policy adjustments. 🧐 In summary: While Trump pushes for immediate cuts to boost the economy, the Fed is taking a measured approach, prioritizing long-term stability over short-term political pressure. ⚖️ War in Ukraine remains tense: Western leaders, alongside President Zelensky, are calling for a 30-day ceasefire starting May 12. Russia has shown a willingness to negotiate but demands an end to Western military aid — a condition firmly rejected. 🚨 Conclusion: The coming days will be critical. A ceasefire could open the door to new peace efforts. If rejected, expect tougher sanctions and further escalation. 💥 India–Pakistan Conflict: Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated sharply following a militant attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir on April 22, 2025. India responded with airstrikes, prompting mutual accusations of missile and drone attacks. 💣 Despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced on May 10, violations followed within hours. Both countries, nuclear-armed, have mobilized troops along the Line of Control. ⚔️ Global powers — including the U.S., U.K., China, and G7 — have urged restraint and offered to mediate. 🌍 2. Technicalwise 📊 1h Timeframe – Bearish Anti-Gartley Pattern 15m Timeframe – Bearish Anti-Butterfly Pattern That’s not a sign of gold being bullish in the short term. 🚫 Let’s take a look at RSI values across timeframes: - 5m – 31 – Down ⬇️ - 15m – 37 – Down ⬇️ - 30m – 43 – Down ⬇️ - 1h – 45 – Down ⬇️ - 4h – 46 – Down ⬇️ - 1d – 55 – Up ⬆️ Interpretation of RSI Values 🧐 5m to 4h (31 to 46 – all “Down”) → These low RSI values (below 50) across short- to mid-term timeframes indicate ongoing selling pressure and downward momentum. Although not yet in oversold territory (<30), this still signals relative weakness. ⚠️ 1d (55 – “Up”) → On the daily chart, the RSI is above 50 and rising, suggesting a possible trend reversal or early signs of recovery — a bullish signal over the longer term. 📈 Overall Meaning 🧠 This points to short-term weakness within a broader potential uptrend. The market is soft on lower timeframes — likely in correction or consolidation — while the daily chart begins to show strength. It's a classic pullback setup in an uptrend. 🔄 Possible Strategy Consideration 💡 If you're leaning bullish, look for reversal signals on the smaller timeframes to align entries with the daily trend — such as RSI divergences or breakouts above local resistance. 📊 My Bias 🤔 Bearish sentiment dominates in the short term. Over the next week, I aim to enter short positions targeting $3,200. 📉 If sentiment shifts or key news emerges, a target of $3,400 becomes more realistic. 🚀 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
1
Australian dollar loses ground, jobs report nextThe Australian dollar has declined on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6441, down 0.45% on the day. This follows the Australian dollar's massive gains of 1.5% a day earlier. Australia's wage growth accelerated in the first quarter. Annually, the Wage Price index gained 3.4%, up from 3.2% in Q4 2024 and above the market estimate of 3.2%. The gain was driven by stronger wage growth in the public sector. On a quarterly basis, wage growth rose 0.9% q/q, up from 0.7% and above the market estimate of 0.8%. This is the first time since Q2 2024 that annual wage growth has accelerated. The higher-than-expected wage report comes before next week's Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision. Currently, it looks like a coin toss as to whether the Reserve Bank will maintain or lower rates. Australia releases employment data on Thursday. Employment change is expected to ease to 20 thousand in April, down from 32.2 thousand in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. The labor market has been cooling and if it continues to deteriorate, there will be pressure on the Reserve Bank to lower rates. At last week's Federal Reserve meeting, Fed Chair Powell said that he would take a wait-and-see attitude in its rate policy. Trump's erratic tariff policy must be frustrating for the Fed, as it makes it difficult to make reliable growth and inflation forecasts. This week's surprise announcement of a tariff deal between the US and China is a case in point at Trump's zig-zag trade policy. The two sides have been engaged in a bruising trade war and slapped massive tariffs on each other's products. Suddenly, the tariffs were slashed, leading to a sigh of relief in the financial markets. The deal is only for 90 days, and what happens then is very much up in the air.
by OANDA
Japanese yen tumbles to five-week low on US-China tariff dealThe Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. USD/JPY is trading at 148.18, up 1.9% on the day. Earlier, the yen strengthened to 148.59, its strongest level since April 3. The US and China have reached an agreement to slash tariffs on each other's products for 90 days. This would be a major de-escalation in the bruising tariff war between the world's two largest economies. Under the agreement, the US and China will slash tariffs by 115%, leaving US tariffs on China at 30% and China's tariffs on the US at 10%. The tariff agreement has boosted risk appetite, sending global stock markets higher. The deal has weighed on safe-haven assets like the yen, which is sharply lower on Monday. Gold, another safe-haven, has plunged 3.1% today. In Japan, household spending and wage growth were down in March. Household spending decelerated to 0.4% m/m, down sharply from 3.5% in February. Average Cash Earnings declined to 2.1% y/y, down from a downwardly revised 2.7% a month earlier. There was more bad news as service-sentiment for April eased, reflecting concern over US tariffs. These numbers support the case for the Bank of Japan to continue its wait-and-see stance before raising interest rates. The BoJ wants to see inflation remain sustainable at 2%, which will require higher wage growth and stronger consumer spending. Over the weekend, a host of Fed members made public statements. New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler both noted that current rate policy was in an appropriate place and suggested patience was needed. This message echoed Fed Chair Powell's remarks at last week's FOMC meeting, when he said the Fed would take a wait-and-see attitude due to the uncertainty over US tariffs. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 146.83 and 147.48 and is testing resistance at 148.47. Above, there is resistance at 149.04 146.11 and 145.36 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Liberation, Altercation & Boom: US China Trade talks CME_MINI:ES1! Pointing to our previously written blog post (Liberation, Altercation or Doom) on March 31st. A mix of all scenarios played out. Global universal tariffs with reciprocal tariffs layered on top. It resulted in a huge sell-off on April 2nd. After months of tit-for-tat tariffs and growing economic friction, the US and China have agreed to hit pause. In a joint statement that’s given markets some breathing room, both countries announced a 90-day suspension on a large portion of their punitive tariffs—an initial step toward dialing back tensions and restarting dialogue. Key Tariff Measures from US-China Joint Statement (90-Day Pause) US Tariff Reductions: Tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period. 24 percentage points suspended, leaving a 10% base tariff in place. China Tariff Reductions: Tariffs on US goods reduced from 125% to 10% for the same 90-day period. China also suspends 24 percentage points of additional ad valorem duties. Retains a 10% baseline tariff on US imports. Non-Tariff Measures: China to suspend or remove all non-tariff countermeasures imposed since April 2. Includes sanctions on certain US companies. Lifts export controls on some critical minerals. Timeline & Commitment: Both parties agree to implement these actions by May 14. Commitment to continue trade and economic talks through a new bilateral mechanism. Talks may be held in alternating locations (US/China) or via third-party venues. No Agreement On: Currency policy. E-commerce “de minimis” exemptions. Sector-specific tariff frameworks. Future Key Dates and Timeline: May - Potential US semiconductor tariffs. May/June - Potential US pharmaceutical tariffs. July 8th - 90-day tariff lowering for "worst offenders" expires. July 14th - US tariffs on Mexican agriculture goes into effect. August 10th - US-China tariff relief expires. Was this really mutual or just a game of chicken? There’s an argument to be made that this is more of a tactical pause than a full reconciliation. With China’s GDP in purchasing power parity terms now surpassing that of the US, and its continued technological advancements across sectors like aerospace, semiconductors, and critical minerals, the balance of economic leverage is shifting. For investors, this isn’t just about tariffs—it’s about the evolving structure of global trade. Geopolitical undercurrents continue to shape the backdrop. China’s strategic influence in regional security, technology supply chains, and commodity access adds another layer to its negotiating position. Recent developments—such as China's reassertion of dominance in strategic corridors and growing control over key mineral exports—suggest its economic posture is becoming more assertive. This, in turn, has implications for US firms dependent on Chinese inputs or facing retaliatory restrictions. In short, the 90-day window presents a tactical opportunity, but the structural story remains complex. Investors would be wise to monitor not just tariff updates, but broader shifts in trade alliances, export controls, and supply chain vulnerabilities—especially in sectors like tech, energy, and defense-adjacent industries. ES Futures: ES Futures and risk on assets are positive across the board following this announcement. Key Levels: Key LVN/ Key LIS: 5861-5837.25 200 Day MA: 5872.99 0.786 Fib Retracement level: 5921.75 0.618 Fib Retracement level: 5688.75 pWkHi: 5741 mCVAL 2025: 5639.75 Expectations for the week ahead: US CPI and Retail Sales data on the docket this week along with slew of FED speakers. Scenario 1: Risk on ES Futures get back above 200-day moving average clearing the key LVN resistance zone and our key LIS, head towards 0.786 Fib retracement level before pulling back and consolidating for the remainder of the week. Example trade: Entry: 5861 Stop: 5837 Target: 5921.75 Risk: 96 ticks Reward: 243 ticks Risk/Reward ratio: 2.5 R Scenario 2: Further consolidation Markets consolidate below the key LVN resistance zone and prior weekly high. Example Trade: Entry: 5837 Stop: 5861 Target: 5741 Risk: 96 ticks Reward: 384 ticks Risk/Reward ratio: 4 R Glossary: VA: Value Area VPOC: Volume Point of Control VAL: Value Area Low C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.) mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.) LNV: Low Volume Node LIS: Line in Sand Important Notes: These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions. Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear