BTCUSD Analysis Using MMC – Bearish Rejection & Target🔷 Introduction:
Bitcoin is showing classic Market Maker manipulation at work—volume compression, false breakouts, support-resistance flips, and a fading rally under a well-defined descending curve.
This post offers a deep dive into the true intentions of smart money behind recent price actions, helping traders avoid traps and align with institutional moves.
🔎 Detailed Breakdown of Chart Structure:
🧱 1. Volume Contraction Zone – The Calm Before the Storm
📅 Period: May 13–18
Price consolidates within a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Volume steadily decreases as price tightens – a sign that market makers are accumulating positions while keeping volatility low.
This low-volume phase creates uncertainty for retail traders, shaking out weak hands and building a base for a deceptive breakout.
🔍 MMC Insight: Market Makers reduce volatility to absorb liquidity without alerting the market to their accumulation. This builds energy for a manipulated move.
📌 2. False Breakout to Previous Target Zone (~$110,000)
📅 May 20–23
A sudden bullish impulse takes price to the previous target zone, marked as a key area of historical liquidity.
Retail traders enter late long positions at this stage, anticipating further breakout.
🎯 But instead:
Price swiftly rejects from this level, forming long upper wicks and bearish engulfing candles.
This move is a liquidity sweep, where smart money offloads positions to late buyers.
🔍 MMC Insight: Institutions engineer a breakout to bait traders, only to dump into the momentum they create.
🔁 3. SR Interchange (Support Flips to Resistance)
📅 May 27–June 2
Former support around $104,000 – $105,000 is broken and then retested from below.
Price attempts to reclaim it, but fails—each touch results in rejection.
This confirms the area has flipped to resistance, aligning with MMC’s SR Interchange Rule.
📉 Significance: This zone now acts as a control point where market makers defend short positions.
🚫 4. Candle Rejection Area – Curved Trendline Resistance
A visually defined curved resistance line caps each rally, suggesting consistent seller presence.
Recent candles show clear rejection wicks and small-bodied candles at this level—classic distribution behavior.
Market is compressing under this trendline, hinting at an imminent breakdown.
🔍 MMC Insight: Curved trendlines show passive sell pressure where institutions repeatedly cap price in preparation for a drive lower.
📉 5. Next Target & Volume Burst Area: $101,000 – $102,000
This zone is crucial due to:
Presence of imbalance (inefficiency) left from previous bullish moves.
Likely stop loss clusters from retail long traders.
Historical high-volume node suggesting pending revisit for order rebalancing.
🟨 Yellow Zone = Volume Burst Area: Expected to act as a magnet for price due to liquidity concentration.
🧠 Psychology of the Trap:
📈 Retail Bias: “Bullish triangle breakout means more upside.”
🧠 Institutional Plan: “Use that belief to create exit liquidity, then reverse.”
This is textbook MMC manipulation:
Contract volume to build positions.
Break out to bait liquidity.
Reverse at supply.
Sell into rejection zones.
Trap traders at SR flips.
Drive price to reclaim liquidity at lower targets.
📊 Strategy Plan:
🔻 Bearish Bias Setup:
Entry Zone: $105,200 – $106,000 (candle rejection area)
SL: Above $106,800 (above supply curve)
TP1: $103,000
TP2: $101,000
TP3 (optional): $99,000 for deeper flush
🔁 Flip Bullish if:
Price reclaims $107,000 with momentum and closes above the curve.
Watch for volume confirmation and bullish SMC patterns (e.g., BOS + FVG fill).
⚠️ Risk Management & Notes:
Trade with 1–2% max risk per position.
Let confirmations play out (don't preempt rejection).
Watch U.S. data releases this week (highlighted on chart) – potential volatility triggers.
📌 Conclusion:
Bitcoin’s current behavior is a masterclass in market structure manipulation. Understanding MMC lets us:
Avoid false breakouts
Align with institutional intentions
Trade with probability, not emotion
Expect lower prices unless $106,800 is cleanly broken. The path of least resistance currently points downward toward liquidity zones.
Technical Analysis
WAVE 3 PEAK OR SETUP FOR A NEW RALLY? XAUUSD PLAN – JUNE 3RD | WAVE 3 PEAK OR SETUP FOR A NEW RALLY?
After a massive $100 rally at the start of the week, gold has begun to pull back — dropping over $30 during the Asia session today. This is likely the end of Wave 3 (the strongest impulse in a 5-wave Elliott structure), as investors lock in profits and await key macro events.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
A high-stakes call between Trump and Xi Jinping is expected this week, which could reshape short-term trade sentiment.
Investors are moving into cash positions, taking profits after Monday’s surge, and waiting for direction from the upcoming US-China negotiations.
Macro themes remain supportive for volatility: tariff risks, inflation worries, and geopolitical uncertainty.
📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – H2 / H4 / D1
On the higher timeframes (H4 and D1), gold maintains a bullish structure, with EMAs aligned for upside continuation.
On intraday charts (M30–H1), we’re seeing a clean correction, likely to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone below.
The key BUY zone at 3320–3310 will decide direction:
If it holds: strong long setups.
If it breaks: possible structure shift and deeper downside.
🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
🟢 BUY ZONE: 3320 – 3318
SL: 3314
TP: 3324 → 3328 → 3332 → 3336 → 3340 → 3344 → 3350 → 3360 → ???
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3388 – 3390
SL: 3394
TP: 3384 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370 → 3366 → 3360 → 3350
📌 FINAL THOUGHTS
“Gold is in a healthy correction after a massive surge. The 3310–3320 zone is crucial. Hold it, and bulls may take over again — break it, and we may see a deeper pullback."
⚠️ Stay cautious ahead of political headlines. Any remarks from the Trump–Xi call could spark aggressive price action.
ECB Signals More Action as Eurozone Outlook WaversECB Signals More Action as Eurozone Outlook Wavers
EUR/USD rebounded to near 1.1370 in Monday’s Asian session as the US Dollar weakened after legal shifts in tariff rulings. On Thursday, the US Court of Appeals backed Trump’s tariff policy, overturning Wednesday’s lower court decision that had declared his April 2 executive orders unlawful.
Trade tensions escalated as Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%. In response, the European Commission warned it would retaliate, despite both sides agreeing to accelerate talks after extending the EU tariff deadline to July 9.
Meanwhile, Eurozone economic concerns persist. ECB’s Klaas Knot cited inflation uncertainty, while François Villeroy de Galhau said policy normalization is likely not finished, suggesting more action ahead.
The key resistance is located at 1.1460 and the first support stands at 1.1300.
USDCHF: Important Breakout 🇺🇸🇨🇭
USDCHF broke and closed below a neckline of a huge
head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame.
It turned into a strong resistance cluster now.
I believe that the price will drop to that at least to 0.81 support.
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XAUUSD Reversal Zones Identified (MMC Analysis) + Target🧠 Overview:
Today’s GOLD chart shows clear institutional footprints using the Market Maker Concept (MMC). We're seeing a sequence of liquidity sweeps, breaks of structure (BOS), and supply/demand (SD) interchanges, all pointing to a well-orchestrated bullish expansion.
This detailed analysis will break down:
Key structure shifts and manipulation zones
BOS confirmations and their implications
Upcoming reversal target zone and trade management suggestions
🔍 Chart Breakdown:
🔸 1. SR Interchange Zone (Demand Zone)
Around $3,270 – $3,280, price showed strong bullish rejection.
This zone represents a Support-Resistance Flip, where price absorbed sell-side liquidity before launching upward.
Market Makers often use this zone to induce short positions, then reverse to trap retail sellers.
🔸 2. Major BOS (Break of Structure)
Occurred near $3,365, signaling a confirmed bullish shift in market structure.
This BOS is important because it shows displacement, a core MMC trait where institutions break structure with momentum.
Once BOS was confirmed, price formed a short-term pullback, aligning with re-accumulation principles.
🔸 3. Previous Target Zone + SD Interchange
Around $3,370 – $3,385, previously identified as a resistance/target zone.
After breaking this zone, price retested it and turned it into new support (SD Interchange).
This is a common MMC move: old resistance becomes a new demand zone post-manipulation.
🔸 4. Target Hit & Bullish Continuation
Price surged upward and hit the next logical target, pausing briefly.
This confirms that the market is following liquidity engineering – price sweeps zones to collect orders, then pushes higher.
🔸 5. Next Reversal Zone: $3,440 – $3,460
This is a key supply zone based on prior inefficiencies and potential smart money exits.
Traders should watch this zone carefully for signs of bearish reaction:
Rejection wicks
Bearish engulfing patterns
RSI/MACD divergence
Volume exhaustion
💡 Trade Strategy Ideas:
✅ Bullish Bias (If price holds above BOS)
Buy retracements into demand zones (e.g., $3,365 or $3,385)
Targets: $3,420 and then $3,450
Use trailing stops to lock in profits
❌ Bearish Setup (Upon reversal signs in $3,440 – $3,460 zone)
Look for short confirmations like lower highs or bearish engulfing candles
Targets: $3,385 (former demand) or $3,365 (BOS level)
⚠️ Risk Management:
Stick to 1-2% risk per trade
Wait for confirmation before entering any reversal
Set clear invalidation levels (above $3,460 for shorts)
🔚 Conclusion:
This GOLD analysis demonstrates classic MMC and Smart Money behavior:
BOS with confirmation
Institutional demand flip
Precise target fulfillment
Approaching a high-probability reversal zone
The next few sessions will be critical. Stay sharp and patient—let the market confirm the next direction.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 03/06/2025Nifty is expected to open flat near the 24700 mark, continuing its sideways trend from previous sessions. The index is currently hovering just below the key resistance zone of 24750–24800. A breakout above this level can trigger bullish momentum with upside targets of 24850, 24900, and 24950+. Sustained strength may push the index further toward the 25000–25050 area.
However, if Nifty fails to hold and breaks below 24700, it could lead to bearish pressure. A confirmed breakdown may open downside targets of 24650, 24600, and 24550. Further decline could test the next major support at 24500–24450 levels.
As the market remains range-bound, traders are advised to wait for breakout confirmation with strict stop-loss. Watch for volume and momentum near breakout zones to avoid false signals.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(03/06/2025)Bank Nifty is expected to open flat around the 55850–55900 zone, continuing near the same levels as the previous session. The index is currently trading in a tight range, indicating potential breakout or reversal zones are nearing.
If Bank Nifty sustains above the 55550–55600 zone, bullish momentum could continue toward 55750, 55850, and 55950+. A clear breakout above 56050 would confirm a fresh upward leg, with extended targets at 56250, 56350, and 56450+.
On the downside, if Bank Nifty slips below 55900–55950, a minor correction is possible with short targets at 55750, 55650, and 55550. Further weakness would only be confirmed below 55450–55400, exposing the downside to 55250, 55150, and 55050.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Persists
U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with new orders, backlogs, production, and employment all declining. Trade-war disruptions and elevated input costs continue to squeeze factory margins, setting the stage for today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release
🌐 Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Stocks
Renewed U.S.–China tariff threats sent the S&P 500 lower overnight, as investors fear higher costs for exporters and slower global growth. Futures pointed to another rough open for $SPY/ SP:SPX
📈 China Caixin PMI Exceeds Expectations
China’s May Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.8, signaling stabilization in export-oriented factories despite ongoing trade uncertainty. That positive surprise may offer some support to Asian equities today
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 3:
8:30 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Today’s survey will confirm if the May downturn persists.
10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending (April) Tracks monthly change in total construction outlays—an important gauge of housing and infrastructure investment trends.
1:00 PM ET – 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that influences the yield curve. Weak demand or higher yields here can pressure equities, especially growth-oriented sectors.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
HIMS 1D — This pattern didn’t cook for nothingOn the daily chart of Hims & Hers Health, we’re looking at a textbook cup with handle formation — not just a pattern, but a structure backed by time, volume, and classic price behavior. The base of the cup formed steadily from February to May 2025, and as soon as the curve was complete, price transitioned into a tight consolidation — the "handle" that often masks real accumulation.
Right now, price is testing the resistance area. And it’s not just floating up there — it’s coming in hot: price has already broken through EMA 20/50/100/200 and SMA 50/200. That’s a full stack flip. This isn’t sideways noise — it’s a structural shift in control.
Volume is starting to build as price rises, confirming that demand is real and institutional positioning likely active. We’re watching a breakout zone above the handle — and when that breaks, the structure unlocks with a clear target: $107.25, roughly a 2x move from current levels.
This setup isn’t noise. It’s a long-cooked formation that’s now about to boil over. If the handle holds and price breaks through — the rest is just follow-through.
Why XAUUSD is 50/50XAUUSD created a new LH and didn't want to continue last week's demand. However, it also created a new HL. Who takes precedence in this scenario? The HL since it's an overall Up Trend. It might consolidate in the next few days and the 4th of June will be a good indicator if it break to the upside or continue to drop.
XAUUSD 8H: This isn’t balance — it’s broadening distributionAt first glance, it may seem like gold is consolidating. In reality, price is unfolding inside a broadening formation — a structure where highs stretch higher, lows drop deeper, and real direction vanishes behind controlled volatility. This isn’t random noise. It’s Smart Money engineering a distribution phase under the cover of market indecision. And right now, the direction is forming clearly — downward.
The key moment was the failed breakout above 3357 on May 24. Volume spiked 19% above average, but the candle body collapsed. That’s a textbook deviation — a classic liquidity grab. The next candle confirmed the failure by closing back below the level, and no bullish recovery followed. Instead, price printed a lower high around 3305–3315, failing to retest the top. And when price can’t go higher — it usually goes lower.
Confirmation comes from the Anchored VWAP from May 13, which was broken cleanly and never retested. That’s a major shift in control — from buyer to seller. Now price trades below VWAP, with every bullish candle fading and every bearish reaction gaining strength. This is not trend continuation. This is exhaustion.
Volume profile shows the Point of Control between 3297 and 3301 — and price sits well below it. The bulk of liquidity is now overhead. That zone between 3305–3315 is where Smart Money already sold once — and if price returns there, it becomes an ideal re-entry short zone, especially if followed by rejection candles or low-volume pushups.
Targets are clean:
→ 3228 — first liquidity shelf.
→ 3164 — former impulse base.
→ 3084 — if breakdown accelerates.
Everything lines up: deviation, failed breakout, VWAP lost, volume fading, lower highs forming. This isn’t a pause. This is a phase transition — and the market already voted.
BTC Enters Price Discovery Above $110K—A New Bull Cycle BeginsHistoric Breakout:
Bitcoin has officially entered uncharted territory, breaking decisively above the previous all-time high of $108,364 to surge past $110,000. This isn’t just psychological — it's a clear technical confirmation that the corrective phase is over and a new bullish cycle is underway.
Momentum Without Pause:
The impressive rally has unfolded with minimal pullbacks, a sign of:
Strong institutional accumulation
Growing retail FOMO
This sustained buying pressure suggests we’re witnessing more than a short-term rally — this could be the start of a parabolic move.
Risk Management & Key Support:
Even with minor pullbacks, the technical picture remains bullish.
The $102,000–$106,000 zone (previous resistance) is now key support
This area offers a strategic entry point for those waiting to buy the dip
Price Discovery Mode:
Now in true price discovery, Bitcoin faces no historical resistance overhead. The path of least resistance remains upward, with potential for explosive gains as we move into the summer months.
🚀 Next stop? Price targets in the $130K+ zone may soon come into focus.
#Bitcoin #BTC #AllTimeHigh #CryptoBreakout #PriceDiscovery #BullRun #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #BitcoinToTheMoon
Bitcoin Reverses from Resistance, Eyes $100K SupportBitcoin's rally stalled at the $108,500 resistance level, with prices now pulling back and breaking below the steep uptrend line. The MACD is crossing lower and RSI is falling toward neutral, indicating momentum may be shifting. With the 50-day moving average near $94,400 and horizontal support around $100,000, traders may look for signs of stabilization in that zone before reassessing trend continuation.
-MW
Gold Rebounds Off 50-Day SMA Support in Bullish Continuation SetGold is reasserting its uptrend following a strong bounce off confluence support around the 50-day moving average and trendline:
Uptrend Intact: Price continues to respect the rising trendline and 50-day SMA (~$3,235), which acted as a springboard for the latest push.
Momentum Shift: The MACD has turned higher again after cooling off through April-May, while RSI is climbing toward the 60 zone, a constructive sign.
Next Resistance: A move above $3,400 would expose the all-time high region near $3,460.
Structure: This appears to be a textbook continuation pattern—higher lows and resilience above the short-term MAs indicate buyers remain in control.
A break below ~$3,230 would neutralize the bullish structure, but for now, bulls look reenergized.
-MW
AUD/USD Coiling for Breakout as Wedge Tightens Below 200-day SMAAUD/USD is threatening a breakout from a bullish ascending triangle pattern after weeks of tight consolidation:
Triangle Pattern: The pair has carved out a clear ascending triangle, marked by higher lows and resistance near 0.6500. Today's breakout attempt is the most convincing yet.
Key Levels in Play: 0.6500 remains the neckline to beat, while the 200-day SMA (currently near 0.6446) has served as a gravity line for weeks. A daily close above both would mark a significant technical shift.
Momentum Gauges: RSI is lifting off the 50 level, hinting at building bullish momentum. MACD is attempting to cross above the zero line but still lacks follow-through.
Targets: A confirmed breakout opens the door toward the 0.6558 Fibonacci level, with 0.6730 a stretch target if momentum builds.
Failure to break higher from here could bring a sharp drop back toward support near 0.6360. Keep an eye on volume and closing strength.
-MW
USDCAD: Will It Drop Lower? 🇺🇸🇨🇦
I successfully predicted a bearish move on USDCAD on Friday.
Because the trend is bearish, I think that the pair may drop
even below a current structure low.
Next strong support that I see is 1.3652.
It might be the next goal for the bears.
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Crypto Market Slows Down For A Correction Within UptrendCrypto market nicely slowed down as expected and Crypto TOTAL market cap chart can now be finishing a projected wave 4 correction right at the former wave "iv" swing low and channel support line, which is ideal textbook technical picture that can now send the Crypto market higher for wave 5, especially if bounces back above 3.3T area and channel resistance line.
However, even if it's going to face deeper and more complex correction within higher degre wave (2) down to 3.0T - 2.8T area, sooner or later we can expect a bullish continuation, as Crypto TOTAL market cap chart is not at the all-time highs yet.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Ahead of June PMI
Markets are bracing for Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (June 3), with economists forecasting a reading below 50.0, signaling continued factory contraction amid slowing global demand and lingering tariff uncertainty.
🛢️ OPEC+ Meeting to Determine Output Path
On Thursday, OPEC+ convenes to decide production levels for July. Expectations center on a modest output cut extension to support prices, with Brent crude trading near $65/bbl ahead of the decision.
💻 Tech Stocks Eye Semiconductor Legislation
Investors are monitoring Congress’s debate over the Chips Act extension. Senate committee hearings this week could accelerate funding for U.S. chip manufacturing—an upside catalyst for NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , and $MU.
🌐 China’s Caixin PMI Signals Pivot
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June 6) is expected to edge above 50.0, indicating a stabilization in smaller export-focused factories. A better-than-expected print could lift global risk sentiment.
🏢 Fed Officials Remain Dovish
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams speak this week, reiterating that rate hikes are “on pause.” Their remarks should clarify the Fed’s view on inflation cooling and potential rate cuts late 2025.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, June 2:
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April)
Tracks dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods—an early gauge of industrial demand.
📅 Tuesday, June 3:
8:30 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Measures U.S. factory-sector health. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending (April)
Reports monthly change in total construction outlays—key for housing and infrastructure trends.
1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Treasury Note Auction
Benchmark auction that can shift yield curve and influence $SPY/ SP:SPX positioning.
📅 Wednesday, June 4:
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April)
Dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods. (Repeat for emphasis on industrial slowdown.)
2:00 PM ET: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
Comments on inflation and monetary policy outlook.
📅 Thursday, June 5:
8:30 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (April)
Tracks number of unfilled positions—a barometer of labor-market tightness.
10:00 AM ET: OPEC+ Press Conference (Post-Meeting)
Details on production quotas—critical for energy-sector flow.
📅 Friday, June 6:
8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
Monthly change in U.S. employment—core for Fed policy outlook.
8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (May)
Percentage of labor force unemployed—key gauge of labor-market health.
8:30 AM ET: Average Hourly Earnings (May)
Tracks wage trends—important for consumer spending and inflation.
10:00 AM ET: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May, preliminary)
Measures health of China’s smaller export-oriented factories.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
GBP/JPY Dips in Tokyo & London—What’s Next for Price Action?FenzoFx—GBP/JPY dipped from 194.6 during the Tokyo and London sessions, now trading around 193.1. Price is testing support near the May 27 low, ahead of the New York session.
A bounce from 193.0 could push GBP/JPY toward 193.5, with a bullish wave possible if price closes above that level, targeting 194.6. However, stabilizing below 193.0 would invalidate this outlook, with the next bearish target at 192.5.
XAUUSD | 1h BearishGold (XAUUSD) 1H Analysis
Currently, gold is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal from a key supply zone. Price tapped into the previous high and reacted with strong rejection, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. This area aligns with a clear zone of interest, where sellers previously stepped in, adding confluence to our bearish bias.
The structure has been respected so far, and price has now broken below the minor trendline support, which previously acted as dynamic support for this bullish leg. A pullback to retest this broken structure or the imbalance zone just above could provide an optimal entry for further downside.
The trade idea is built on a potential shift in market structure:
A double top internal structure formation is visible at the recent high, indicating exhaustion in the uptrend.
Price is expected to push lower, targeting TP1, which sits at the previous strong support zone and aligns with the internal structure break.
Further continuation to the downside could take price toward the 0.5 FIB retracement level and PDL (Previous Day Low)—both strong liquidity areas.
We are anticipating a reaction from these lower zones. If bullish momentum reappears there, it may offer a chance to reposition for long setups later. For now, the bias remains bearish while price holds below the supply zone and structure confirms.
Will the Dollar’s Drop Fuel More Gold Upside After Weak PCE DXY OUTLOOK – Will the Dollar’s Drop Fuel More Gold Upside After Weak PCE and Trade Tensions?
📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – DXY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has failed to hold the 99.20–99.30 support zone and continues to respect its bearish structure on the H2 chart. The sharp sell-off at the end of May was a direct response to weaker-than-expected PCE inflation data, combined with growing political uncertainty surrounding US–China and US–EU trade negotiations.
🔻 Key Resistance Levels: 99.234 – 99.618
🔻 Key Support Zone: 98.030 – A clean break below this may open the door toward 97.50
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT – USD UNDER PRESSURE ON MULTIPLE FRONTS
Trump’s tariff decisions remain unclear. While some deadlines were delayed (e.g., steel tariffs on the EU), no substantial agreements have been reached.
Core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge – continues to ease, reducing expectations of further rate hikes in the short term.
Institutional flows are shifting toward safe havens like gold, especially as uncertainty clouds the outlook for both US fiscal and trade policy.
📊 IMPACT ON XAUUSD – DOLLAR DROP GIVES GOLD ROOM TO RALLY
Gold remains supported by:
A weakening DXY trend
A bullish structure on H1 with EMA 13–34–89–200 alignment in favor of upside
Strong safe-haven demand heading into a new month with fresh capital inflows
If DXY breaks below 98.70 and slides toward 98.030, gold could extend its rally toward key resistance zones at 3348 – 3361.
🎯 TRADING STRATEGY (Based on DXY Bearish Continuation):
Prioritize buy setups on XAUUSD if DXY fails to reclaim the 99.23 resistance
Watch for a potential DXY pullback to resistance – if rejected, this would confirm momentum for gold to climb further
📌 NOTE: Traders should stay alert to any major news from the Fed or new developments in US–China–EU trade talks. While the current DXY structure favors continued downside, short-term pullbacks can provide gold with consolidation before another leg higher.
EURUSD – The bearish threat is becoming increasingly clearRecently released PMI data shows that the U.S. manufacturing sector is rebounding. This dampens expectations of monetary easing from the Fed. With a stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields, USD-denominated assets like EURUSD are facing downward pressure.
On the daily chart, EURUSD is approaching the resistance zone at 1.16438 – an area that has rejected prices before. The recent rebound appears to be losing strength, and the ascending trendline is at risk of breaking.
If the price fails to hold above this trendline as illustrated, a breakout to the downside could drive the market toward the 1.10757 zone – which aligns with a previous strong support level.
In summary: be cautious of a potential trend break. If a pattern of lower highs continues, sellers may soon take control.