JPYUSD | Head & Shoulders Breakdown Setup | Bearish move Build🔍 Technical Overview
A clear Head & Shoulders pattern has formed on the JPY/USD 8H chart — a well-known bearish reversal setup often signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. The pattern is confirmed with a left shoulder, higher head, and lower right shoulder, all aligned along a defined neckline acting as key horizontal support.
Currently, the price is retesting both the neckline and a descending trendline, which adds confluence to the bearish bias. If price fails to break back above this resistance zone, we can anticipate a further drop toward the projected target zone.
📌 Key Technical Levels
Head: ~0.007180
Neckline Support: ~0.006660
Retest Area (Confluence Zone): ~0.006940–0.006960
Bearish Target: ~0.006470 (measured from the head to the neckline and projected downward)
Trendline Resistance: Acting as dynamic resistance since the recent high
⚙️ Price Action Insights
Pattern Clarity: The structure of the H&S is clean and symmetrical — a classic sign of distribution and topping out after a bullish rally.
Retest in Play: Price is currently retesting the trendline resistance. Rejection from this area strengthens bearish continuation potential.
Momentum Shift: Bullish pressure is weakening. Lower highs on the right shoulder show buyer exhaustion.
🧠 Mindset & Strategy
This setup demonstrates how patience, pattern recognition, and confluence can align to offer a high-probability trading idea.
✅ Wait for Confirmation: A strong bearish candle off the retest zone or neckline breakdown gives a cleaner short entry.
✅ Risk Management First: Place stops just above the right shoulder or trendline (~0.007000 zone).
✅ Target Logically: The target is not random — it’s derived using the classic measured move technique, matching the head-to-neckline distance.
📋 Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
📍 Entry: On rejection at retest zone or confirmed neckline breakdown
🎯 Target: 0.006470
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 0.007000 (trendline/right shoulder area)
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: Minimum 2:1 if entered post-retest confirmation
🧠 Trader’s Note (Minds Insight)
This is where discipline comes into play. Don’t chase the move. Let the pattern complete and confirm. Head and Shoulders formations are among the most reliable reversal patterns — but only after neckline breaks or strong rejections.
This setup teaches traders to trust the process, combine horizontal and diagonal resistance, and let the price action do the talking.
Technical Analysis
Silver Rectangle Pattern Breakout | XAGUSD Analysis + Target🔍 Technical Overview
Silver has been forming a textbook rectangle consolidation pattern over the past few weeks, bouncing between a clearly defined Support Zone (~$32.10) and Resistance Zone (~$33.40). This range-bound movement indicates accumulation, a phase where smart money typically builds positions before initiating a directional breakout.
Currently, price action shows a breakout attempt toward the upper resistance. If momentum continues, we could see a bullish breakout, followed by a potential retest of the broken resistance (now support). A successful retest would confirm a high-probability setup for a move to higher targets.
📌 Key Technical Zones
Support Zone: ~$32.10
This level has been tested multiple times, with price consistently bouncing higher, signaling strong buyer interest.
Minor Resistance Zone: ~$33.00
Acted as an intermediate ceiling within the rectangle. Once broken, this level became a signpost for bullish continuation.
Main Resistance Zone: ~$33.40
The top boundary of the rectangle; this is the key breakout level.
Target 1 (TP1): $34.58
A logical resistance level based on previous price structure and breakout projection.
Target 2 (TP2): $35.22
A more extended target derived from the height of the rectangle pattern projected from the breakout point (measured move).
⚙️ Price Action Insights
Rectangle Pattern Behavior: Price ranged within horizontal support/resistance, forming consistent highs and lows — a strong signal of accumulation.
Momentum Shift: Recent bullish candles and higher lows suggest buying pressure is increasing.
Breakout in Progress: Price is currently pushing above the upper rectangle boundary. A confirmed breakout candle close followed by a retest would provide a higher-probability entry opportunity.
Retest Strategy: Retests are critical for confirmation. A pullback to ~$33.40 with rejection signals (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar) would strengthen the case for further upside.
🧠 Mindset & Strategy Explanation
This setup represents patience, structure, and discipline in trading:
✅ Wait for the Pattern : Rectangle patterns often trap impatient traders. Waiting for a confirmed breakout and retest gives higher-quality entries.
✅ Risk Management is Key : Use the structure of the rectangle to define risk. Stops should be set just below the last swing low or inside the range.
✅ Targeting with Precision: TP1 and TP2 are not random — they’re derived from prior resistance levels and pattern projections. This keeps your trading logical, not emotional.
✅ Mind Over Market: Don’t chase breakouts. Wait for confirmation. The retest is often your friend in swing trading setups like this.
📋 Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
📍 Entry: On confirmed breakout above $33.40 or retest of this level with bullish confirmation.
🎯 Target 1: $34.58 (partial take profit suggested)
🎯 Target 2: $35.22 (measured move projection)
🛑 Stop Loss: Below $32.70 (under recent support structure)
🔁 Optional: Trail stop loss after TP1 to lock in profits as TP2 approaches.
🧠 Final Thoughts for Traders
This chart provides a clean example of how price consolidates before expansion. The rectangle pattern allows for easy identification of entry/exit zones and offers a solid risk-to-reward setup. Whether you're a new trader learning to spot consolidation patterns or a seasoned pro looking for low-risk, high-reward setups — this XAGUSD formation is one to watch.
Keep an eye on volume and candle structure around the breakout zone. Confirmation is key. Discipline is everything.
GBP/USD Forms a New Bearish WaveFenzoFx—GBP/USD tested the 1.3414 high for the third time since late April, currently forming a long wick bearish candlestick pattern in the daily chart.
From a technical perspective, a new bearish wave could be on the horizon if this level holds. In this scenario, the next bearish target could be the 1.3145 support.
Trade GBP/USD Swap Free at FenzoFx.
GOLD 21/05 – FED'S HAWKISH STANCE VS. TECHNICAL LEVELSGOLD MARKET UPDATE 21/05 – FED'S HAWKISH STANCE VS. TECHNICAL LEVELS – BIG MOVE AHEAD?
Gold’s recent rally has paused as traders weigh the latest signals from the Federal Reserve. Despite geopolitical tensions and softer U.S. economic data, the Fed is sticking with a "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy, which has kept the U.S. dollar strong and put pressure on gold’s price action.
📉 However, the technical outlook suggests a different story.
⚙️ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Is It A Bearish Trap Or A Hidden Bullish Opportunity?
Looking at the 1H timeframe, XAU/USD is consolidating after reaching a major Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 3328–3356. This zone reveals significant volatility and potential liquidity grabs, with two key FVG zones forming above and below the current price levels.
There’s a potential bullish scenario if gold retraces to the 3250–3252 support zone, where strong trendline confluence and dynamic support are likely to drive demand.
On the flip side, any rejection from the 3354–3356 SELL ZONE could initiate a bearish trend, pushing gold lower to test key structural support levels.
💹 TRADING STRATEGY FOR TODAY:
🔵 BUY ZONE
Entry: 3252–3250
Stop Loss: 3246
Take Profit:
3256 – 3260 – 3264 – 3268 – 3272 – 3280 – 3300 – ???
🔵 BUY SCALP
Entry: 3277–3275
Stop Loss: 3272
Take Profit:
3280 – 3284 – 3288 – 3292 – 3296 – 3300
🔻 SELL ZONE
Entry: 3354–3356
Stop Loss: 3360
Take Profit:
3350 – 3346 – 3342 – 3338 – 3334 – 3330 – 3320
🔻 SELL SCALP
Entry: 3328–3330
Stop Loss: 3334
Take Profit:
3324 – 3320 – 3316 – 3310 – 3305 – 3300
🌍 MACRO INSIGHT
The Fed’s hawkish stance continues to weigh on gold, but geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing de-dollarization trends maintain gold’s appeal.
China, along with other central banks, is still actively accumulating gold, signaling that long-term bullish pressure remains intact.
Keep an eye on U.S. data this week, especially PMI and jobless claims, as these could act as short-term catalysts for gold.
📌 KEY NOTES
Volatility is increasing, so stay disciplined. Stick to your key levels and manage risk effectively. Patience and strategy will be key as the market moves in the coming days.
Stay alert and trade wisely!
Bearish Reversal Confirmed – BTC Rising Wedge TrapBitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1H timeframe is displaying a bearish reversal structure after failing to sustain a breakout above key resistance. The recent price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which typically precedes a downside correction, especially when formed near a key supply zone. Let’s break down the setup:
🔍 Technical Analysis Overview:
🔹 1. Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish)
A rising wedge is visible near the top of the recent bullish impulse. This wedge is characterized by converging trendlines with higher highs and higher lows, but with diminishing momentum. It typically signals a weakening uptrend and a potential trend reversal or correction once price breaks below the lower wedge boundary.
The breakout to the downside has already begun, confirming bearish intent.
🔹 2. SR Interchange Zone
The blue zone marked in the chart represents a Support-Resistance Interchange (SR Flip). This was previously an area of consolidation and breakout, acting as a key decision zone. Price is expected to retest this zone after the wedge breakdown before continuing further down.
This creates a perfect "Break → Retest → Drop" scenario, often favored by institutional and swing traders.
🔹 3. Consolidation Structure
Before the wedge formation, Bitcoin was stuck in a prolonged consolidation phase. This type of ranging price action often accumulates orders before a breakout. Once broken, these zones serve as magnets for pullbacks or liquidity grabs, and are frequently retested.
🔹 4. Target Zone
The measured move from the rising wedge pattern points to a target near $101,617, which aligns with a previous structural low and a potential demand zone. This area could serve as the next major support level.
🎯 Trade Strategy & Setup:
Entry: After confirmation of breakdown and a clean retest of the SR zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Just above the wedge high and structural resistance (~$108,020).
Target (TP): $101,617 (downside projection based on wedge height and price structure).
📌 Risk-Reward Setup: 1:3+ possible if retest confirms.
🧠 Trader’s Insight:
This setup reflects a common smart-money behavior where price forms a bullish-looking structure (rising wedge), entices buyers, and then traps them with a swift breakdown. The SR retest provides a low-risk shorting opportunity. Patience is key — let price come to your level before entering.
🚨 Risk Note:
If BTC reclaims and holds above the $108,020 level, the bearish thesis may be invalidated. Always wait for confirmation before execution.
Senate Advances Stablecoin Bill, JPMorgan Backs Bitcoin AccessFundamental approach
- The US Senate has cleared the GENIUS Act, its long-awaited stablecoin framework, after marathon talks. A final vote is expected after the Memorial Day break (26 May).
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon says the bank will soon allow clients to trade bitcoin through third-party custody, adding fresh tailwinds to institutional demand.
- Spot-bitcoin ETFs are on track for a sixth straight week of net inflows, reinforcing the bid beneath prices.
Technical approach:
- Price is probing resistance at 106200 within a well-defined rising channel. The widening spread between both EMAs underscores building bullish momentum.
- A decisive close above 107000 opens the door to 113000.
- On the contrary, a drop through the support at 101400 would lead to a deeper correction to around the following support at 93000.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
XAUUSD Breakout from Bullish Flag – Eyes on $3,387Gold (XAUUSD) on the 1H timeframe is exhibiting a strong bullish continuation setup, supported by multiple confluences that suggest the uptrend is far from over. The chart clearly shows the market breaking out from a Bullish Flag Pattern, respecting curve support, and targeting the major resistance zone near $3,387.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
1. Bullish Flag Pattern Formation
After a sharp bullish impulse, price consolidated in a tight downward-sloping channel — the classic bullish flag. This pattern typically appears mid-trend and signals a healthy pause before the next leg higher. The breakout from the flag confirms bullish continuation, often offering a high-probability trade entry.
2. Break of Structure (BOS)
The breakout above minor resistance marked a Break of Structure (BOS), which is a key bullish signal. It indicates a shift in market sentiment and validates the end of the corrective phase (flag) and beginning of the next impulse wave.
3. Curve Support (Parabolic Trajectory)
A parabolic curve support is now guiding price upward, showing increasing bullish pressure and higher lows forming consistently. This type of dynamic support often appears in strong trending markets where buyers step in aggressively at every pullback.
4. Liquidity Sweep & Smart Money Behavior
Before the breakout, price dipped below recent lows within the flag, likely sweeping liquidity and triggering stop-losses. This move provided institutional players with the liquidity needed to push price higher — a classic smart money trap-and-break scenario.
5. Volume & Momentum Confirmation
The breakout occurred with strong bullish momentum and rising volume (if checked on the volume profile), reinforcing the credibility of this move. A momentum-based continuation is likely as long as price remains above previous resistance (now support).
🎯 Target & Resistance Levels:
Short-Term Target: $3,387 — aligned with the previous major resistance area
Support Zone: $3,260–$3,275 (previous flag breakout + structure support)
Major Resistance Zone: Around $3,360–$3,387 (historical supply zone)
🧠 Trade Idea / Strategy:
As long as price holds above the curve support and retests the previous breakout zone (flag top or minor resistance), bullish entries on pullbacks are favored.
✅ Buy on dips into curve support or minor resistance retests.
❌ Avoid shorting into a strong parabolic structure unless signs of exhaustion appear.
🎯 Potential RR setups: 1:2 and beyond if entry is timed well.
💬 Conclusion:
The market structure, pattern confirmation, and strong bullish momentum all point toward a continuation move toward the $3,387 level. This setup provides a solid technical case for bullish trades with multiple entry options and well-defined risk levels. Keep an eye on curve support and potential higher timeframe resistance reactions for dynamic trade management.
XAUUSD – Short-term bounce, major trendline still in play!Hey everyone, looking at the chart, we can see that gold is still moving within a larger uptrend. However, it's now testing a key resistance trendline that has repeatedly caused price to reverse in the past.
The recent bounce from the $3,170 zone looks strong on the surface, but in reality, it's just retesting the $3,400 resistance area – where selling pressure could reappear. Price behavior is also showing signs of losing steam as it approaches previous highs.
If the price fails to break through the upper trendline, a pullback to the $3,400 support zone is the first likely scenario. A deeper move toward the $3,170 area – which previously triggered strong buying – could also unfold.
Summary: Price is currently testing a strong resistance zone. If it fails to break above, the likelihood of a corrective reversal increases. Watch the trendline reaction closely and plan accordingly!
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 21/05/2025Today will be flat opening expected in nifty. After opening if nifty sustain above 24750 level then expected upside movement upto 24950 level. This level will act as a strong resistance for today's session. Any upside rally can reversal from this level. Major downside expected if nifty starts trading below 24700 level. Downside 24500+ level expected in today's session.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(21/05/2025)Today will be flat opening expected in banknifty. After opening if banknifty starts trading below 54950 level then possible further downside upto 54550 level in today's session. Upside movement expected if banknifty starts trading and sustain above 55050 level. Upside 55450 level will act as a strong resistance for today's session. Any bullish side rally can be reversal from this level.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 21, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 21, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 G7 Finance Ministers Convene Amid Tariff Tensions
Finance ministers from G7 nations are meeting in Banff, Alberta, focusing on restoring global stability and growth. Discussions are expected to address excess manufacturing capacity, non-market economic practices, and financial crimes. Tensions may arise due to recent U.S. tariffs affecting multiple G7 nations.
🛢️ Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Concerns
Oil prices increased over 1% following reports that Israel may be preparing a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Such actions could disrupt Middle East oil supplies, particularly if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for crude exports.
📈 Retail Earnings in Focus
Major retailers, including Lowe's ( NYSE:LOW ), Target ( NYSE:TGT ), and TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), are set to report earnings today. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, May 21:
10:00 AM ET: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2025
10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
PYTH 4H ANALYSIS – Bullish Setup in PlayAfter completing a 5-wave impulse to the downside, PYTH has shown signs of a trend reversal. The first upward impulse displayed a clear 5-wave Elliott structure, breaking out of the descending channel — a strong bullish signal.
Following this, a classic A-B-C zig-zag correction occurred, which acted as a retest of the broken channel resistance, now turned support. This confluence increases the probability of a bullish continuation.
With market structure aligning and correction likely complete, PYTH is showing potential for a 50%+ move to the upside.
🟢 Entry Zone: 0.1400 – 0.1500
🔴 Stop Loss: 0.1272 (Below wave C & structural support)
🎯 Target Price: 0.2235
💡 Note: Always manage your risk and confirm with your own analysis before entering any trade.
SHAILY ENG PLASTICS LTD – Breakout Watch | High Volume Spike📌 Trade Plan (Short-Term Swing):
Buy above: ₹1,805 (Breakout confirmation)
Stoploss: ₹1,756 (Below breakout zone)
Target 1: ₹1,849
Target 2: ₹1,943
Sell below: ₹1,756 (Breakdown or failed breakout)
🔍 Technical View:
Volume spike with bullish close – institutional interest likely
Breakout zone near ₹1,804 now acting as immediate support
RSI breakout supports momentum entry
Resistance: ₹1,849 and ₹1,943
EVLV 1WEVLV — a rectangle pattern has formed, and the 100 MA has crossed above the 200 MA, signaling the start of a potential trend reversal. Targets: $8.29 and $12.94.
As of May 2025, the fundamental outlook for Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc. (ticker: EVLV) is as follows:
The company continues to show strong revenue growth and improving key financial metrics, despite remaining unprofitable. Revenue for 2024 reached $103.9 million, up 31% from 2023, while the net loss was halved to $54 million. EBITDA improved to -$21 million from -$51.8 million the year before. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 39% to $99.4 million. The company maintains a strong financial position with $51.9 million in cash and zero debt.
The stock is currently trading at $4.44, above its estimated intrinsic value of $2.76 according to AlphaSpread. Analysts remain optimistic, giving EVLV a “Strong Buy” rating and forecasting an average price target of $5.31, suggesting about 19.6% upside potential.
However, investors should keep in mind that the company is still unprofitable, and the current market valuation exceeds its fundamental value.
Equity Research Report – NEWGEN SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIESShort-Term View: A strong breakout above key resistance at ₹1,100 with volume surge indicates bullish momentum. Price reclaimed the 50 EMA after consolidation. RSI at 60.87 supports strength; next resistance lies near ₹1,193.90.
Long-Term View: Structurally strong after correction. Sustaining above ₹1,020 (50 EMA) may attract fresh buying. Long-term targets can stretch to ₹1,300+ if earnings and demand trends remain favorable.
Conclusion: Bullish momentum likely to continue both short and long term. Watch for volume confirmation and hold above ₹1,100.
For Education Purpose only
ONT ANALYSIS 📊 #ONT Analysis
✅There is a formation of Falling Wedge Pattern on daily chart with a good breakout and retest and currently trading around its support zone🧐
Pattern signals potential bullish movement incoming after the confirmation of retest
👀Current Price: $0.1483
🚀 Target Price: $0.1940
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #ONT price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#ONT #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
POL/USDT Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring POL/USDT for a buying opportunity around 0.2200 zone, POL/USDT is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.2200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bitcoin Rally Stalls Below Resistance as Uptrend Faces Key TestBitcoin (BTC/USD) remains in an aggressive uptrend but is showing early signs of hesitation near a major resistance level:
Trendline Intact (for now): Price is still riding an ascending trendline, but today's bearish candle hints at momentum cooling.
Resistance at 108,500: This level has capped multiple rallies; rejection here could signal a short-term top.
MACD Losing Momentum: Though still above zero, MACD histogram is flattening, hinting at a possible fade in bullish momentum.
RSI Near Overbought: RSI is hovering just under 70, not yet divergent but worth monitoring for reversal signals.
Watch for Break or Bounce: A close below the rising trendline (~103,500) could trigger a deeper pullback toward the 50-day SMA near 90,000. Conversely, a breakout above 108,500 could unlock fresh upside toward prior highs.
Price action in the next 2–3 days will be crucial to determine whether bulls maintain control or profit-taking accelerates.
-MW
USD/MXN Eyes Breakdown Toward Key Support LevelsThe USD/MXN daily chart is displaying signs of continued weakness:
Downtrend Intact: The pair trades firmly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing bearish control.
MACD Bearish: Momentum remains to the downside with the MACD line below zero and the signal line.
Key Support Zones: Price is approaching horizontal support at 19.07; a break could expose 18.58 as the next downside target.
Resistance to Watch: Former support near 19.49 now acts as initial resistance.
RSI Holding Lower: The RSI is drifting below 40, showing bearish momentum without reaching oversold territory.
If the pair closes below 19.07, it may accelerate the bearish trend toward the 18.58 handle.
-MW
Gold Bounces Modestly from Trendline Support – But Is It Enough?Gold is holding just above rising trendline and 50-day SMA support (~$3,175), but the rebound has been tepid so far:
📉 Price action: Small-bodied candles reflect indecision
📊 RSI stuck near 50, suggesting a lack of directional momentum
📉 MACD still trending lower, though starting to flatten
📍Support:
Rising trendline and 50-day SMA: $3,175–$3,180
Below that: $3,100 (psychological + former resistance)
📍Resistance:
Initial resistance near $3,300
Heavier resistance back at $3,400+
⚠️ Big picture: The longer gold churns sideways near trendline support, the more vulnerable it becomes. Bulls need a strong move above $3,300 to reassert control.
-MW
USDCHF Will the Downtrend Break or Bounce? Full Trade Plan TodayUSDCHF – Will the Downtrend Break or Bounce? | Full Trade Plan Today 🔥
🌍 Macro Overview
USDCHF remains in a short-term bearish correction, reflecting current macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding US interest rate expectations and safe-haven demand for CHF.
USD is under pressure after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data last week, increasing speculation that the Fed may cut rates in Q3.
CHF continues to benefit from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and fragile European growth.
However, the key support around 0.8318 has acted as a major demand zone. If bulls react strongly here, we could see a technical rebound in the short term.
📉 Technical Analysis (H1–H2)
USDCHF is trading within a descending channel, showing lower highs and lower lows.
Price is now testing the lower boundary of the channel around 0.8318, which also aligns with a key liquidity area.
EMAs (13 and 34) still slope downward, but momentum is slowing — a possible signal that sellers are losing strength.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
🔺 Resistance Zones:
0.8395 → Recent swing high & supply zone
0.8459 → Medium-term structural resistance
🔻 Support Zones:
0.8318 → Major confluence zone (channel bottom + demand block)
0.8230 → Final support level before deeper drop
🎯 Trade Setups
✅ Scenario A – Bullish Reversal from Support (Preferred):
Entry (Buy): 0.8318 – 0.8322 (after bullish rejection confirmation)
Stop Loss: 0.8288
Take Profits: 0.8395 → 0.8430 → 0.8459
✅ Scenario B – Bearish Breakdown Below Support:
Entry (Sell): 0.8300 – 0.8310 (only if price closes below 0.8310 on H2)
Stop Loss: 0.8340
Take Profits: 0.8260 → 0.8230 → 0.8200
⚠️ What to Watch Today:
Market may see higher volatility during the US session, especially with housing data (Existing Home Sales) and Fed speakers lined up.
Watch for clean price action around 0.8318 — no need to rush entries until confirmation appears.
This is a reactive market, not a predictive one. Let price speak first.
📌 Follow for real-time market updates and actionable strategies during US trading hours.
GBP/USD Retracement or Reversal? Stay Sharp as Momentum FadesGBP/USD Trading Plan – May 20th | Retracement or Reversal? Stay Sharp as Momentum Fades
🌐 Macro Overview
GBP/USD is currently influenced by several macroeconomic forces:
USD strength is returning, supported by stable US data (Retail Sales, Jobless Claims), leading the market to delay expectations of a Fed rate cut.
The British Pound is under pressure as the Bank of England (BoE) is not expected to raise rates further amid slowing domestic growth and easing inflation.
Simultaneously, US-China trade tensions and US debt concerns are keeping market sentiment cautious. The pair is forming a bullish flag structure, but signs of exhaustion are emerging.
📉 Technical Analysis (2H Chart)
GBP/USD is moving within a rising channel. However:
1.3433 remains a strong resistance, aligning with a local top — breakout potential is limited in the short term.
A rising wedge pattern is forming — watch for a potential trap followed by a sharp sell-off.
EMA13 and EMA34 are diverging, signaling distribution and potential reversal ahead.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
Major Resistance:
🔺 1.3433 – recent swing high and potential double top
🔺 1.3355 – mid-range resistance and EMA34 convergence (H2)
Key Support:
🔻 1.3303 – key FIBO + trendline intersection
🔻 1.3251 – medium-term bullish structure support
🔻 1.3174 – previous swing low and strategic BUY ZONE
🎯 Trading Scenarios
📍 Scenario A – False Break and Rejection from Resistance
Entry (SELL): 1.3430 – 1.3433 (after bearish confirmation)
Stop Loss: 1.3460
Take Profits: 1.3355 → 1.3303 → 1.3250
📍 Scenario B – Breakdown and Failed Retest
Entry (SELL): 1.3303 – 1.3310 (after support break and retest)
Stop Loss: 1.3340
Take Profits: 1.3251 → 1.3174
📍 Scenario C – Deep Buy from Strong Support
Entry (BUY): 1.3170 – 1.3174
Stop Loss: 1.3140
Take Profits: 1.3251 → 1.3300
⚠️ Key Reminders:
Stay cautious ahead of key US releases this week (PMI, FOMC Minutes), which may trigger high volatility.
Avoid FOMO and respect SL/TP discipline — especially near potential trap zones.
📌 Follow for intraday updates and real-time trade setups as the structure evolves. Flexibility is key in this market.