TGT Earnings Play: Strong Bearish Setup – $100 Put🛒💥 TGT Earnings Alert – $100 Put (Aug 22, 2025) 🚨🔥
Earnings Snapshot
📉 Revenue Momentum: -2.8% TTM ❌
📊 Margins: Profit margin 4.0%, Gross margin 28.1% ⚠️
📈 Forward EPS Growth: 15.5% (aggressive) 💡
💵 Debt-to-Equity: 130.21 ⚖️
🏬 Sector Context: Discretionary retail under pressure, consumers shifting to essentials 🛒
Technical & Market Context
Price: $104.95, above 20-day MA ($103.40) but below 200-day MA ($115.47) ⚖️
RSI: 58.35 → neutral momentum
Volume: 3.8M, below average 📉
Options Flow: Expected bearish put skew 📉
Macro: Inflation & rising costs = headwinds 🚨
💥 Trade Recommendation
🎯 Strategy: Earnings Put
🏦 Instrument: TGT
💵 Strike: $100 Put
🗓️ Expiry: Aug 22, 2025
💰 Entry Price: $1.85
🎯 Profit Target: $5.50 (200%+)
🛑 Stop Loss: $0.92 (50% of premium)
⏰ Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close
📈 Confidence: 90% 🔥
⚠️ Key Risks:
Rapid IV crush post-earnings ⏳
Unexpected upside surprise 🚀
High leverage; manage sizing carefully ⚖️
Multiple Exit Scenarios
Profit Target Hit: Exit at $5.50 💰
Stop Loss: Exit at $0.92 ❌
Time-Based: Close within 90 mins post-earnings ⏱️
Trade JSON
{
"instrument": "TGT",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 100.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-22",
"confidence": 90,
"profit_target": 5.50,
"stop_loss": 0.92,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 1.85,
"entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close",
"earnings_date": "2025-08-21",
"earnings_time": "BMO",
"expected_move": 5.0,
"iv_rank": 0.85,
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-19 15:20:01 UTC-04:00"
}
📊 Quick Trade Recap:
🎯 PUT $100 | 💵 $1.85 → 🎯 $5.50 | 🛑 $0.92 | 📅 Aug 22 | 📈 90% Confidence
⏰ Entry: Pre-Earnings Close | 📆 Earnings: Aug 21 BMO | 📊 Expected Move: 5%
