Bitcoin: Last confirmation before zeroI thought BTC would go a bit higher before a correction, but "this cool off is taking longer than expected" got me thinking, as well as people telling how wrong I was to be bearish in March 2020, days before the BTC market capitulated because months later price went up (fun fact: just before BTC crashed 60% some people made fun of me for being wrong because BTCUSD went up 5%, you're always right when you choose your timeframe in hindsight).
From the charts I am comparing I think it is quite obvious what my timeframe is. Maybe timeframe is not the correct word because it could take 5 days like it could take 2 months.
This kind of price action does not appear for the first time, here is an example of it taking 2 months.
The celebrating and media attention is not at its peak, it could either be that this is just a small "bear market" in the trend up, like April 2013 was - not that I think BTCUSD drops 80% now.
Also, the (long idea)/(short idea) ratio indicator is extremely overbought, when BTC was at 11k no one cared, now everyone is in and bullish, this does not bode well.
I am also long ETH, back in Dec 2017 & Jan 2018 Bitcoin going down ended up harming the ETH uptrend but long after the BTC downmove was started, obvious, and it did not prevent it from going to ath, and on top of that ETH made 2 double tops to really give bulls time to think and adjust their portfolio.
If this BTC downtrend happens, could be fast, us longs ETH might want to trail a stop on BTC short, maybe sell some ETH if it stops going up, and reload lower.
There is a case for BTCUSD going up "Possibly the last confirmation before 50k", right now I am not feeling it.
Might go higher, from experience and instinct I am not feeling it. Looks more like complacency and the price will drop soon.
The hard part is guessing where it bottoms (zero obviously), I'd say somewhere between 35 and 45% from the high.
The area to considering closing that short and buy in $ numbers is not that wide, roughly 25 to 30k.
Depending on what happens we might have to close our short higher, but I don't think I'd buy before the price reaches that area.
