XAUUSD Daily Outlook – July 14, 2025Happy Sunday, traders. Gold opens the week inside a compressed range under key premium resistance, with CPI and FOMC speakers loading the macro agenda. Let’s break down today’s structure and expectations.
🔸 D1 Structure Overview:
Bias: Neutral with bearish pressure building
Trend: Still technically bullish, but compressing between LH OB and mid-range FVG
Current Position:
Price is trapped below 3395, inside a lower high structure
No clear BOS yet — but bearish CHoCH already formed
EMAs are tightening and RSI is neutral → signs of indecision
🧭 Key Daily Zones:
Zone Type Price Range Confluences
🔼 Supply Zone 3448–3465 Daily OB + FVG + Weak High trap + EMA divergence
🔼 LH OB 3385–3395 Structure cap + internal supply + EMA21 rejection
🔽 Mid FVG Demand 3328–3310 Daily FVG + fib midpoint + prior reaction
🔽 Strong OB Support 3260–3245 Unmitigated OB + fib 61.8% + sweep low base zone
Fibonacci: Pullback toward 3310 = mid-retracement of last bullish impulse
EMA 5/21/50: Bearish crossover confirmed, but no strong divergence yet
RSI: Flat, suggesting reactive play — confirmation must come from PA
📊 Macro Outlook:
Core CPI data drops today → key for market expectations on inflation
Multiple FOMC members will speak — high potential for whipsaw moves
Gold may remain volatile and range-bound until post-CPI structure resolution
📌 Trade Scenarios:
Bearish case: Reject from 3385 → continuation toward 3310 or deeper into 3245
Bullish case: Clean break & retest above 3395 → short-term pump into 3460 liquidity
Confirmation matters — follow the reaction at each zone, don’t rush reversals.
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📎 Disclaimer:
Chart and analysis based on Trade Nation broker feed on TradingView.
This is a technical outlook for educational purposes and not financial advice.
