Sabre Corporation (Revised) | SABR | Long at $1.76This is a revised analysis of Sabre Corp NASDAQ:SABR as seen here
-------
Full disclosure: I am still a holder of shares at $2.06 and newest entry at $1.76. My stop was triggered near $3.00 (original entry) a few days ago. If the price rises above $2.06, I plan to sell out of that entry a keep my lowest position moving forward.
This is a ***highly risky*** trade given the recent news around slower earnings growth and slump in travel demand in certain areas the company caters to. Do your own due diligence.
-------
NASDAQ:SABR stock took a major hit today after the company reported revenue growth below its projections in Q2 2025. Revenue was $687 million, down 1% year-on-year, missing the company's own guidance of "low single-digit" growth. They also significantly lowered full-year guidance for 2025, expecting Air Distribution Volumes to grow between 4-10% and full-year Adjusted EBITDA between $530-$570 million, down from previous projections. The company's higher exposure to corporate and government travel, including a decline in U.S. government and military travel, negatively impacted its performance.
From a technical analysis perspective, the price dropped today to an area 6 standard deviations away from the historical simple moving average zone (which rests now at $1.69 - blue line). While there may be a dead-cat bounce then further drop to near $1.00, the stock is behaving as expected given the bad news. However, a drop in interest rates will significantly benefit this company's debt burden. NASDAQ:SABR consistently ranks as one of the top players in the global travel technology landscape, so while I think the future is bright for the company given earnings projections (beyond 2025) and analyst estimates, 2025 will absolutely be a tough year.
So, at $1.76, I am buying the fear. Last entry near $1 if it gets there and the overall fundamentals do not change. Whatever my lowest entry is, I will be holding that and selling all previous entries near even to limit exposure.
Revised Targets into 2028:
$2.20 (+25.0%)
$2.90 (+64.8%)
