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Trend Analysis

SPY Slips into Deep Negative Gamma — Aug. 1SPY Slips into Deep Negative Gamma — $629.73 Pivot Under Siege 🔍 GEX & Options Flow Insight (1st Image Analysis) SPY has rolled over sharply from the $641 highs, slicing through multiple support zones and now probing the $629–$631 gamma pivot. The GEX structure is decisively negative, signaling elevated downside risk if this key level fails. * Call Walls & Resistance: * 📍 $636.39 → 1st resistance (Call resistance zone) * 📍 $639.48–$640.28 → 2nd Call Wall cluster * 📍 $641.46 → Highest call wall / gamma resistance * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 🛡️ $631.07 → Current key gamma pivot * 🚨 $629.73 → Highest negative NET GEX / critical floor * 📉 Break below $629 risks a flush to $626–$622 * Volatility Insight: * IVR 15.2, IVx Avg 15.4 → Low realized volatility despite price slide * Put flow 61% → Heavily bearish * GEX sentiment: 🔴🔴🔴 = Strong negative gamma — market likely to see amplified moves in current direction ✅ Option Trading Suggestion: Bias: Bearish unless reclaiming $636+
Strategy: Bear put spread or put fly * Entry Idea: Buy 630P / Sell 625P (Aug 2 or Aug 9 expiry) * Invalidation: Close above $636 * Target: $626 → $622 Why this works: SPY is pinned near a major negative gamma inflection. Below $629.73, dealer hedging could accelerate selling pressure toward $622. 🧠 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) (2nd Image Analysis) Market Structure & SMC: * 🟥 CHoCH confirmed after rejection at $641 * ❌ Broke short-term BOS levels in the $637–$636 zone * Currently trading in a downward-sloping structure with multiple failed bounces Trendline Dynamics: * Clean descending channel from July 30 highs * Lower bound projection points to $626–$622 support SMC Zones: * 🟩 Demand Zone: $629–$626 → Short-term bounce risk here * 🟥 Supply Zone (Purple Box): $636–$639 → Heavy overhead resistance 🔄 Price Action & Key Levels * Support: * ✅ $631.07 → Current gamma pivot * 🚨 $629.73 → Key breakdown trigger * 📉 $626 → Lower demand * 📉 $622 → Deeper downside target * Resistance: * 🚩 $636.39 → First reclaim level for relief * 🚩 $639.48 → Mid supply * 🚩 $641.46 → Full reversal point 🧭 Scalping / Intraday Trade Setup 🟥 Bearish Setup (Preferred): * Entry: Breakdown under $629.73 * Target 1: $626 * Target 2: $622 * Stop: Above $632 🟩 Bullish Reversal Setup: * Entry: Reclaim of $636.39 with strong volume * Target 1: $639.48 * Target 2: $641.46 * Stop: Below $634 🔁 Summary Thoughts * SPY is in a clean downtrend inside a negative gamma regime. * $629.73 is the critical make-or-break line — holding it could trigger a small bounce, breaking it could unleash another wave of selling toward $622. * Options flow is heavily bearish, aligning with technical weakness. 🚨 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Gold non-farm payrolls are bullish, long and short positions ana Rather than envying the fish by the river, it's better to retreat and weave your net. We often envy the wealth others can earn by investing in the gold market. We often watch them enthusiastically investing, but we ourselves are afraid to enter the market. The two major factors that drive the market, technology and news, are a topic of constant debate among investors. To navigate the market, one must master the art of attack and defense to remain rock-solid while remaining at the forefront. As the saying goes, trust me, and I will reward you with profits! Gold Data is Bullish! The positive non-farm payroll data sent gold soaring, with gains completely erasing all of the week's losses. Currently, gold's trend has reversed the stagnant bullish and bearish trend. After breaking through the 3300 mark and rising all the way to 3348, it shows no signs of stopping. A further test of the 3370 level is not out of the question! Due to the strong bullish data, if you don't immediately chase longs or place a breakout long order during the first wave, you'll likely have little chance of a pullback. Therefore, you should remain aggressive in your trading strategies. We recommend a pullback to the 3332-30 level to continue the bullish trend. Upward pressure is expected at 3372-75! The market fluctuates violently, and more real-time entry and exit points are mainly based on Yulia's real-time guidance!
TVC:GOLDLong
by jiqeu1
USNAS100 - Tech Weakness & Tariffs Drag NASDAQ LowerTariff Day Pressure Builds as Amazon Miss Weighs on Markets Markets were hit by a wave of risk-off sentiment on Friday as renewed tariff headlines, weakness in pharma stocks, and a disappointing earnings report from Amazon clouded investor confidence. All this comes just ahead of the U.S. jobs report, which is expected to challenge the market's already diminished expectations for Fed rate cuts. While macro markets appeared resilient earlier in the week, Wall Street futures and global equities turned cautious as sentiment deteriorated. NASDAQ – Technical Outlook The NASDAQ has dropped nearly 850 points from its recent all-time high of 23690, as anticipated in previous updates. The index remains under bearish pressure. For today, the market is expected to remain sensitive due to recent macro and earnings-driven volatility. If the price breaks below 22875, the decline is likely to extend toward 22710, with a deeper support zone at 22615. To shift back to a bullish bias, the index must break and close above 23045 on the 1H chart. Support Levels: 22875 • 22710 • 22615 Resistance Levels: 23140 • 23240 • 23320 Bias: Bearish while below 23045 Bullish confirmation: 1H close above 23045
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
$NVDA: Cycle-Wired Levels🏛️ Research Notes The fact that the angle of linear connection between 3rd degree points (fractal hierarchy) acted multiple amout of times as support and eventually resistance from which tariff drop happened establishing bottom and expanding from there. That means if we were to justify the texture of ongoing wave from that bottom, we would geometrically quantify the area of that triangle to project considering historic data to remain objective approach (and NOT what levels we subjectively want to see whether we are bullish or bearish). There is mean reversion rule also going on which will be structurally addressed. No matter where your actual target is at, there are always structural boundaries that price must break through first in order to get there. And because markets tend to move in proportion to their own scale — often aligning with exponents of the golden ratio, we treat phi as a constant within this probabilistic space.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by fract
6
Is This the Start of a Market Drop?So, is the drop beginning? It kind of looks that way, but there’s still no solid setup for entering a short position — and there hasn’t been so far. The trend is still upward for now, and this current pullback might just be temporary. What I like about the short idea is that August is traditionally a weak month for stocks . Could this be the start of a big correction on the market? Yes, it’s possible. It’s just a pity there’s no clean setup for a short. I’d like to enter, but I’d prefer to see a bit more confirmation on the chart itself. In general, trading the index off of chart setups isn’t easy — perfect entries are rare. That’s exactly the case now. I’m watching and wondering how and when to catch the downside. Maybe I’ll end up sitting through the entire drop without a position :) Overall, I’m in favor of the short — but for now, I just don’t see a clear entry point.
SP:SPXShort
by kventinka
SOL/USDT | NFP Volatility Could Trigger Drop Toward $154!By analyzing the Solana chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around $169. If it fails to hold above the $168 level, a deeper drop could follow. With the upcoming NFP data release, increased volatility is expected across the markets. If Solana begins to decline, the potential correction targets are $163, $157, and $154. Watch the $145–$154 zone closely for a possible bullish reaction and buy opportunity. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
#XRP Update #5 – July 29, 2025#XRP Update #5 – July 29, 2025 The long position we opened two days ago is still active, and as I mentioned earlier, I’m not planning to use a stop. In the previous trade, we took profit with 30% of our capital at the $3.33 level. Although there has been a pullback, I’m still holding the position. I have no intention of placing a stop and will continue by averaging down if necessary. Currently, XRP has reacted from the K-Level zone. Its target is the $3.93 level, but the first major resistance it needs to break is at $3.66. I’m continuing to hold the position for now.
Long
by BTCETH2X
Could we see a further drop for the Aussie?The price has rejected off the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support, which acts as a swing low support. Pivot: 0.6469 1st Support: 0.6372 1st Resistance: 0.6540 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
NIKKEI: Strong Bullish Momentum Driven by Favorable IndicatorsData analysis indicates a "Bullish" bias for the NIKKEI, with a strong overall score. This positive outlook is supported by a confluence of factors, including Commitments of Traders (COT) data, retail positioning, seasonality, and trend. While some economic data points show neutrality or slight negativity, the overriding sentiment and key technical factors suggest a continued upward trajectory for the NIKKEI. Key Supporting Factors (Bullish): Strong Technicals/Momentum: The "Trend" and "Seasonality" scores of 2 each suggest strong underlying bullish momentum and favorable seasonal patterns for the NIKKEI. COT & Retail Positioning: Positive scores in "COT" and "Retail Pos" (both 2) often indicate that institutional money and retail traders are aligned in a bullish direction, providing a strong foundation for upward movement. GDP, SPMI, Retail Sales: These economic indicators, with scores of 1, are contributing positively to the overall bullish bias, indicating healthy economic activity.
ICMARKETS:JP225Long
by AACA-
GBPCHF RETAINS BEARISH MOMENTUMInstitutional (COT) data shows a net reduction in GBP exposure, suggesting big money is pulling out of the pound. Retail sentiment also leans heavily against the trend, with traders buying the dip — another contrarian bearish signal. Seasonality does not favor the pair in August either, with historic trends leaning against GBP performance this time of year. On the macro side, UK economic data continues to weaken. Both manufacturing and services PMI are deteriorating, indicating contraction across sectors. Retail sales and GDP growth are negative, while inflationary pressure is easing — all of which reduces the urgency for further BOE tightening. Employment metrics are also weak, with poor job creation and falling labor market momentum. Meanwhile, Switzerland is showing relative macro strength. The SNB is benefiting from stable inflation and its traditional safe-haven appeal, which is further boosted by rising global risk-off sentiment. Interest rate expectations are neutral for CHF but increasingly dovish for the UK, creating clear policy divergence in CHF’s favor.
Short
by AACA-
USDCHF SHORT IDEA FULL BREAKDOWNUSD/CHF is flashing a strong bearish signal from both a macro and sentiment perspective. ✅ Bearish USD Drivers: FOMC Pivot Watch: July meeting minutes hinted at potential rate cuts before year-end due to inflation moderating and soft jobs data. Rising Swiss Franc Demand: CHF is benefiting from safe haven flows amid escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and shaky U.S. equity markets. Swiss CPI Stable: Inflation is in check, allowing SNB to maintain their policy stance without pressure. Institutional traders are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, while retail traders are net long USDCHF — a classic contrarian bearish signal. Seasonality also favors Swiss Franc strength in August. On the macro side, U.S. data is underwhelming: job growth has slowed, services PMI is soft, and inflation metrics (CPI, PCE) are cooling. This has increased expectations for a Fed rate cut later in the year. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank remains stable with no urgency to ease policy. Combined with global risk-off sentiment, capital is flowing into CHF, giving it an added edge over the dollar.
Short
by AACA-
US100The US100 (Nasdaq 100) has shown a dramatic shift in trend, forming what appears to be a large-scale bearish harmonic pattern or potential M-top structure. After reaching its peak in mid-2025, the index has entered a sharp downward trajectory, shedding significant value in a short span. This chart raises a critical question for long-term investors and traders: Are we witnessing the early phase of a prolonged bear market that could stretch into 2026 and beyond? 🔻 Key Observations: Bearish structure developing with aggressive selling pressure. Potential breakdown from long-term support trendlines. Momentum suggests institutional risk-off behavior. Stay alert for macroeconomic cues, interest rate policy, and earnings season signals. A break below 13,000 could confirm a deeper bear cycle
FPMARKETS:US100
by Trader1mran
Gold Surges on Non-Farm Data; 3330 Key Next WeekGold was strongly boosted by the significantly bullish non-farm payroll data, surging sharply like a rocket 🚀, with gains that completely "wiped out" all the weekly losses. The current gold trend, as if injected with super momentum, has completely broken the previous long-short stalemate. Starting from the 3300 level, it has been breaking through obstacles all the way up to 3350. At present, 3330 is like a critical "battleground" ⚔️ fiercely contested by both long and short sides. This week, when gold was still "lingering" below 3300, I emphasized repeatedly that a rebound was inevitable – we just needed to stay calm and wait for the opportunity. As it turns out, our judgment was spot on, and we successfully took profits around 3340, reaping good gains 💴. Now, gold prices are oscillating back and forth in the 3340-3350 range. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, I boldly predict that gold is likely to pull back to around 3330 next week, so everyone can prepare in advance 🤗 ⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Sell@ 3350 🚀 TP 3330 - 3320 - 3310 🚀 Buy@ 3300 -3310 🚀 TP 3320 - 3330 - 3340 Daily updates bring you precise trading signals 📊 When you hit a snag in trading, these signals stand as your trustworthy compass 🧭 Don’t hesitate to take a look—sincerely hoping they’ll be a huge help to you 🌟 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Conqueror-
Buy HBARHBAR is the native cryptocurrency of the Hedera network, a high-performance, enterprise-grade public blockchain alternative that uses a unique consensus algorithm called Hashgraph. Governed by a 39-member global Governing Council, including:Google, IBM, Boeing, Dell, Ubisoft, Deutsche Telekom. These members run nodes and vote on governance, making the network decentralized, but enterprise-friendly. HBAR still in the box formed since January 2021 but it has potential to break-out. Actually, the first leg-up has started and curently price is consolidating before the second legup. with potential to break out the box. Trade setup is as in chart Target is estimated based on market cap of 11B.
Long
by evasivesteering
Canada's GDP contracts, US nonfarm payrolls misses forecastThe Canadian dollar continues to lose ground against its US counterpart and is trading at two-month lows. In the European session, the Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3875, down 0.13% on the day. USD/CAD has risen for six straight days, climbing 1.9% during that time. US nonfarm payrolls for July were softer than expected at 73 thousand, compared to the forecast of 110 thousand. The June report was revised sharply downwards to 14 thousand from an initial 147 thousand. Canada's GDP posted a small decline of 0.1% m/m in May, matching the market estimate. This followed an identical reading in April, as the economy is essentially treading water. A drop in retail trade was a significant factor in the weak GDP reading, particularly in motor vehicles and parts. The decline in GDP in April and May can be squarely blamed on the trade war with the US, which has put a chill in economic activity. The markets are expecting a slight improvement in June, with an estimate of a 0.1% gain. The Bank of Canada held the benchmark rate at 2.75% on Thursday for a third consecutive meeting. The rate statement noted that US trade policy remains "unpredictable" and Governor Macklem reiterated this at his press conference, saying that "some level of uncertainty will continue" until the US and Canada reach a trade agreement. Meanwhile, the trade war between the two sides is heating up. President Trump announced on Thursday that the US was slapping 35% tariffs on Canadian products, effective Aug. 1. The new tariff will not apply to goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was "disappointed" with the US decision and vowed that "Canadians will be our own best customer". These are brave words, but Carney will be under pressure to reach a deal with the US, as 75% of Canadian exports are shipped to the US and Canada can ill-afford a protracted trade war with its giant southern neighbor.
by OANDA
GBP weakness + USD gaining bullish momentumFX:GBPUSD 🧠 What’s Driving GBP Weakness? ❄️ Cooling Inflation: Slows BoE policy tightening 🔻 Contracting Manufacturing: PMI deep in the red 🛍️ Falling Retail Sales: UK consumers are pulling back 💼 Labor Market Cracking: Recent jobs data may be peak 💣 BoE Dovish Pivot Incoming: Markets are anticipating future cuts in 2025 🇺🇸 USD Strength: Fed holding steady, US macro much stronger than UK 🧭 Extra Confluence: USD Strength USD is being supported by: Strong US labor market 🟢 Higher for longer Fed 🟢 Global risk-off sentiment 🟢 Positive divergence in US CPI and Retail Sales 🟢 📌 GBPUSD is not just a GBP short — it’s a USD long play too. 🧩 Historical Price Action Pattern In 2023 Q3, GBP/USD dropped nearly 700 pips in 6 weeks during similar macro shifts — soft BoE + strong USD. We may be setting up for a repeat pattern now. 🗣️ What’s Your Take? Are you looking to short GBP/USD this month? Where’s your target or trigger zone? Let’s compare setups ⤵️ I’m sharing more breakdowns weekly — follow for macro + technical convergence trades.
Short
by AACA-