Trend Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): 200EMA is Key Are Currently | Red Monthly OpeningBTC had a really sharp start to the month, and we are back near $115K, which was a key zone for us last time (due to huge orders sitting there).
Now, we see a similar struggle like last time but not quite the same, as the 200EMA has aligned with the $115K area. We are now looking for any signs of MSB, as we think we might get a recovery from here.
Now if we do not recover right now (by the end of today), we are going to see a really deep downside movement during the weekend most likely!
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USOIL WTIWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is a major benchmark for crude oil pricing, known for its high quality—being both light and sweet due to its low sulfur content and low density. WTI is sourced primarily from inland Texas and is the underlying commodity for oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The main physical delivery point is Cushing, Oklahoma, a critical U.S. oil storage and trading hub.
Current Price (as of August 1, 2025)
WTI crude oil is trading around $69.15–$69.36 per barrel.
Recently, WTI prices have seen volatility due to global economic factors, including U.S. tariffs, OPEC+ production, and shifts in oil demand. Despite a small decline on the day, oil prices have posted their strongest weekly performance since June, rising over 6% for the week.
Market and Outlook
Recent price movement reflects concerns about global trade tensions, new tariffs, and their impact on economic growth and energy demand. At the same time, supply risks remain due to geopolitical factors such as potential sanctions on Russian oil and U.S.-China trade developments.
Analyst forecasts for the remainder of 2025 suggest continued volatility, with WTI potentially ranging between $56 and $73 per barrel, influenced by demand, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical events.
Quick Facts Table
Feature Detail
Type Light, sweet crude
Benchmark NYMEX (U.S.), major global reference
Main Delivery Point Cushing, Oklahoma
Latest Price (Aug 1, 2025) $69.15–$69.36 per barrel
Typical Drivers U.S. tariffs, OPEC+ decisions, trade policy, supply risks, global demand
WTI oil plays a central role in global energy markets, serving as a benchmark for North American and international oil pricing. Its price reflects both supply fundamentals and broader macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.
#OIL #WTI
Silver H4 | Potential bearish dropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price reverse from the sell entry at 3.86, and could drop from this level to the downside.
Stop loss is at 37.63, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 35.34, which is a swing low support that lines up with th e 61.8% Fibonacci retraecment.
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Turning the side for NetflixNetflix NASDAQ:NFLX may go through some serious correction soon after the stock rallied a lot till the high of 1337. Furthermore, the stock has confirmed the head and shoulder reversal with the latest bearish candle rejecting the neckline resistance @ 1188.14. Furthermore, the bearish divergence has been on since 19 May 2025.
Long-term MACD has performed a bearish crossover at the top and histogram is negative.
Stochastic Oscillator has confirmed the overbought signal.
23-period ROC turns negative and forms a bearish divergence. Directional movement index saw increased bearish trend strength signal.
Target is at 1054 in the near-term
PLTR Pressured at Key Support — Can $155 Hold? 8/1PLTR Pressured at Key Support — Can $155 Hold or Is a Break to $150 Next?
🔍 GEX & Options Flow Insight (1st Image Analysis)
PLTR has been sliding after failing to hold its $160+ range and is now testing the $155–156 gamma support. The GEX profile still shows moderate call dominance, but support is thin below this level, meaning a break could bring swift downside.
* Call Walls & Resistance:
* 📍 $160.14 → 2nd Call Wall (59.02% GEX)
* 📍 $161.44 → Gamma Wall / Highest positive NET GEX
* 📍 $162.50 → 3rd Call Wall resistance
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 🛡️ $155.94 → Current gamma pivot and support
* 🚨 $153.06–$154.91 → 2nd Put Wall & HVL zone — break here risks slide to $150
* 📉 $146.00 → 3rd Put Wall & major downside target
* Volatility Insight:
* IVR 36.1, IVx Avg 73 → Elevated volatility
* Call flow 37.5% → Still skewed bullish, but waning
* GEX sentiment: 🟢🟡🟢 = Cautiously bullish gamma positioning but losing ground
✅ Option Trading Suggestion:
Bias: Bearish if $156 fails; bullish recovery possible only above $160
Strategy: Bear put spread if $156 breaks
* Entry Idea: Buy 155P / Sell 150P (Aug 2 or Aug 9 expiry)
* Invalidation: Strong reclaim above $160
* Target: $153 → $150
Why this works: PLTR is nearing a key gamma inflection. Below $156, dealers may need to hedge by selling, fueling a sharper drop. Bulls need to defend this pivot.
🧠 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) (2nd Image Analysis)
Market Structure & SMC:
* 🟥 CHoCH confirmed after rejection at $160+
* ❌ Broke out of ascending structure to the downside
* Sitting just above prior BOS zone at $155
Trendline Dynamics:
* Broken short-term uptrend now acting as resistance
* Downward-sloping structure points toward $153–150 retest
SMC Zones:
* 🟩 Demand Zone: $155–$153 → Current defense area
* 🟥 Supply Zone (Purple Box): $160–$162.5 → Strong resistance cluster
🔄 Price Action & Key Levels
* Support:
* ✅ $155.94 → Gamma pivot / current defense
* ✅ $153.06–$154.91 → Last key support before major drop
* 🚨 $146.00 → Next downside target
* Resistance:
* 🚩 $160.14 → First upside target if bounce
* 🚩 $161.44–$162.50 → Gamma & call wall zone
🧭 Scalping / Intraday Trade Setup
🟥 Bearish Setup (Preferred):
* Entry: Breakdown under $156
* Target 1: $153.50
* Target 2: $150
* Stop: Above $158
🟩 Bullish Reversal Setup:
* Entry: Reclaim of $160 with volume
* Target 1: $161.44
* Target 2: $162.50
* Stop: Below $158
🔁 Summary Thoughts
* PLTR is at a critical gamma support level.
* A failure here brings a quick shot to $153–150.
* Bulls must defend $156 and reclaim $160 to flip structure back bullish.
* Options positioning still leans bullish but is weakening, meaning downside acceleration risk is real.
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
Bitcoin Could Accept bearish TrendBitcoin is currently testing a key resistance zone between 120,000 and 121,000. While price action is attempting to break higher, market conditions suggest the possibility of a false breakout rather than a sustained bullish continuation.
BTC has approached a significant resistance band, and early signs of exhaustion are visible. Unless the price decisively holds above 121,000, any breakout may lack conviction. Given the broader unresolved downtrend, a corrective move remains likely.
If the breakout fails to sustain, we anticipate a pullback toward the 117,000 to 115,000 range. This would align with a retest of previous support zones and continuation of the short-term bearish structure.
Ps: Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks.
SPY: I think dollar milkshake is brewing, buying for long term📉 SPY Daily Breakdown – Aug 1, 2025 | VolanX Observations
🧠 Bot failed today, but the market taught more than any trade could have. Sitting out gave me the clarity to reassess structure and edge.
🔍 Market Structure Update:
Gap Down from Premium Zone: Today’s price action rejected the weak high and created a clean daily gap — signaling potential distribution at the top.
ORB (15-min) marked and ready: Likely to be retested on Monday. If price rallies into this zone and rejects, that’s where I’ll look for short entries.
Friday Bearish Close Rule: Statistically, when Friday closes red with strong momentum, Monday tends to follow — especially after a gap-down open.
🧭 Big Picture Outlook:
Liquidity Zones Below:
600 → First institutional reaction zone.
580 → Deeper demand and equilibrium area from previous consolidation.
Dollar Milkshake Brewing: Strong USD thesis could pressure equities short-term. This aligns with potential flow into defensives and out of high beta.
Long-Term Bias: Watching for deep discounts. If price moves into high-value demand zones, I’ll accumulate for the long haul — buying fear when it's priced in.
📌 What I’m Watching Next Week:
Monday open – will we see Gap & Go or a Gap Fill + Fade?
Reaction to ORB zone.
Volatility behavior and volume footprint in the first 90 minutes.
🔻 No trades today due to a bot error, but ironically, that gave me better vision. Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don’t take.
VolanX Protocol engaged. Standing by.
Nasdaq US100 Wave 3 Expansion Toward 31,606 in PlayNasdaq US100 has completed a significant wave cycle with a confirmed wave 1 in the broader Elliott Wave structure. Following this, price underwent a corrective wave 2 that extended from the $22,237 supply zone down to $16,334, marking the conclusion of the previous cycle’s correction. This structure now signals the initiation of a fresh upward impulse, setting the stage for a powerful wave 3 advance.
The emergence of wave 3 will gain full confirmation once price successfully breaks above the external supply zone, reclaiming $22,237. If this breakout occurs with sustained momentum, the wave 3 projection targets an expansion toward $31,606, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the prior cycle. This forthcoming rally is anticipated to unfold in a five-subwave format, indicative of a high-momentum bullish leg.
As long as price action remains above the key support at $16,334, the bullish cycle remains valid. All eyes should now be on the breakout structure and volume profile around $22,237, as it represents the gateway to a much broader impulsive move.
AVAX/USDT: Bullish Reversal at MA Support & Daily OversoldHello traders,
Today's analysis focuses on a high-probability long setup for AVAX/USDT on the 4H timeframe. The price has pulled back to a critical area where a confluence of powerful technical indicators suggests a significant bounce or reversal is imminent.
1. Trend & Context (The "Why")
Following a strong uptrend, AVAX entered a corrective phase, marked by a Bearish Change of Character (ChoCh). This correction has now brought the price to an A+ support zone.
Here are the key confluences for this bullish setup:
Major Support Cluster: The price is currently reacting to a critical support cluster formed by the EMA 200 and EMA 400. These long-term moving averages are major levels where institutions often step in to buy.
Momentum Exhaustion (MC Orderflow): The Innotrade MC Orderflow oscillator provides the critical confirmation that selling pressure is exhausted:
The oscillator is deep in the OVERSOLD territory on the 4H chart.
THE CRITICAL MTF CONFLUENCE: The Multi-Timeframe Cycle Table is the most important factor here. It shows that both the 4H and Daily timeframes are "Oversold". This alignment of higher timeframe momentum at a key technical support level is a very powerful signal for a reversal.
2. Entry, Stop Loss, and Targets (The "How")
The alignment of these factors gives us a clear and actionable trade plan with a great risk-to-reward profile.
Entry: An entry around the current price ($21.50 - $22.10) is ideal, as we are right at the MA support cluster.
Stop Loss (SL): $21.20. This places the stop loss safely below the EMA 400 and the recent swing low, providing a clear invalidation point for the setup.
Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: $24.00 (Targeting the Bearish ChoCh level and the cluster of short-term EMAs).
TP2: $26.50 (The next major swing high, a logical area of resistance).
TP3: $27.40 (The major high of the entire range, a longer-term target if the uptrend resumes).
Conclusion
This trade setup is of very high quality due to the powerful confluence of a major MA support cluster with a confirmed multi-timeframe momentum exhaustion signal (4H and Daily). This synergy creates a high-probability environment for a significant bullish reversal.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
Gold Market Holds Bearish Structure Below 3291Gold market continues to hold firm within the bearish channel, with 3291 acting as a supply zone, maintaining pressure down toward 3269. As long as this zone remains unbroken, bearish momentum stays in play.
🔍 Key Insight:
3291 = active supply resistance
3269 = short-term target if sentiment holds
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How to maintain stable operations before NFP dataYesterday, gold closed the month with a long upper shadow doji candlestick, indicating strong upward pressure, with monthly resistance at 3439-3451. Today marks the beginning of the month, and with the release of numerous data indicators such as NFP, unemployment benefits, and PMI, there is considerable uncertainty, so intraday trading should proceed with caution.
Judging from the daily chart, the current MACD indicator is dead cross with large volume, and the smart indicator is running oversold, indicating a low-level fluctuation trend during the day. At present, we need to pay attention to the SMA60 moving average and the daily middle track corresponding to 3327-3337 on the upper side, and pay attention to the intraday low around 3280 on the lower side. The lows of the previous two days at 3275-3268 cannot be ignored. There is a possibility that the low-level oscillation will touch the previous low again.
From the 4H chart, technical indicators are currently flat, with no significant short-term fluctuations expected. Low-level volatility is expected to persist within the day. Then just focus on the support near 3275 below and the middle track pressure near 3307 above. Looking at the hourly chart, gold is currently oscillating below the mid-range band, with resistance at 3295-3307 to watch in the short term.
Overall, the market is expected to remain volatile before the release of today's data. Based on Wednesday's ADP data, this round of data is also expected to be around $100,000. The contrast between ADP and NFP last time deserves our caution. The current market is basically optimistic about the short-selling situation, which is exactly what I am most worried about. If the gold price can stabilize above 3,300 before the NY data, the possibility of NFP data being bullish cannot be ruled out.
Intraday European trading suggestion: if the current gold price falls back to 3285-3280 and stabilizes, you can consider short-term long positions, with the target at 3295-3305. If the gold price tests the low of 3275-3268 again and does not break through, you can consider a second chance to go long. After making a profit of $10-20, you can consider exiting the market with profits. The market is volatile and unstable, so be sure to bring SL with you and pay close attention to the impact of the NFP data. Conservative investors can enter the market after the data is released.
EURUSD – Smart Money Short Setup During NFP Friday | ICT Concept
EURUSD is trading inside a well-defined bearish structure after multiple internal liquidity sweeps during the London and Asia sessions.
As we enter the New York Killzone, price has returned to a bearish OB near the NY Midnight Open, with clear signs of exhaustion.
The pair failed to break above the Thursday OB zone, and the 15M chart shows consecutive MSS and BOS patterns, indicating supply is in control.
🧠 Trade Idea (Execution Plan):
Sell Limit: 1.14183
SL: 1.14422
TP1: 1.13877
TP2: 1.13608
TP3: 1.13351
📌 Confluence:
Bearish OB
NY Midnight Open rejection
MSS on LTF
RSI/Williams %R Overbought
📉 Structure: Bearish
🕒 Session: New York (NFP Volatility Expected)
💡 Context: USD is likely to strengthen after deep retracement into DXY OB, targeting 100.5–100.7
If price invalidates 1.14422 with bullish displacement, setup becomes void.
Patience is key during high-impact news – let Smart Money show their hand.
GBPUSD Technical BreakdownTrendline Breakout:
Price has decisively broken above a short-term descending trendline, signaling a potential shift in intraday momentum from bearish to bullish.
Support Zone (1.3185 – 1.3195):
This demand area has provided a strong base, with multiple successful rejections confirming buyer interest.
Resistance Levels:
Near-term resistance: 1.3213 (minor breakout level – watch for retest)
Key upside targets: 1.3240 followed by the major supply zone at 1.3275 – 1.3290
📈 Trade Outlook:
Bias: Bullish above 1.3213
Entry Idea: Look for bullish confirmation on a retest of 1.3213 as support
Targets:
TP1: 1.3240
TP2: 1.3275 – 1.3290
Invalidation: A sustained move below 1.3185 would invalidate the setup and reopen downside risk.