I had a nightmare this morning.Recently, I published my analysis about BTC and found that BTC is following a rising channel and is being supported by fib retracement.
But unfortunately, BTC hasn't shown any remarkable movement so far, and came back again the the support area.
I feel this is not a good sign for BTC.
ON a weekly view, It May repeat its previous movement.
I am publishing my reservation about BTC, be careful about BTC.
Trend Lines
GBPAUD - Expecting Bearish Continuation In The Short TermM15 - Bearish divergence followed by the most recent uptrend line breakout.
Clean bearish trend with the price creating series of lower highs, lower lows.
No opposite signs.
Expecting further continuation lower until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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XAUUSD – Swing Trade and Trend FollowingXAUUSD – Swing Trade and Trend Following
Gold prices have been moving sideways, forming a consolidation range, and recently broke out to the upside last week.
Currently, the price is pulling back to retest the bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). If it can bounce from the 3400 support level, the next target would be the Range Volatile Week High around 3500.
However, if the FVG fails to hold, the price may drop to the next support levels at 3350 and 3300.
These are critical supports that should not be broken, as they also align with the ascending trendline (Up Trend Line).
That said, this move is seen as a pullback for a potential continuation to the upside.
Strategy: Buy the dip
Wait for a reversal candlestick at the key support zones.
The bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price breaks below 3250.
Trading Recommendations for the BTC/USDU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated yesterday that USD-backed stable coins could reach a market capitalization of $2 trillion or more. His remarks indicate growing governmental interest in cryptocurrencies, particularly stable coins, as a potentially vital component of the future financial system. Bessent emphasized that with proper regulation, stable coins could enhance payment efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and expand access to financial services for millions of people.
He also noted that stable coins could help broaden the global use of the U.S. dollar and that congress is advancing legislation requiring such coins to be backed by high-quality assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.
It's worth noting the U.S. Senate yesterday voted 68 to 30 to pass the Stable coin Regulation Act, bringing it closer to final approval. If enacted, the legislation could lead to a 10x increase in stable coin supply over the next for years - up to $2 trillion. As a result, stable coin issuers may acquire up to $1.6 trillion in U.S. government bonds for their reserves.
As for the medium-term strategy , I will continue to capitalize on deep pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating continuing the broader bullish market trend.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario 1: Buy Bitcoin today on a break above $108,1000, with a target of $108,700. Exit the buy position near $108,700 and open a short on the pullback. Before buying, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.
Scenario 2: Buy from the lower boundary of $107,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, aiming for a reversal back to $108,100 and $108,700.
Sell Scenario
Scenario 1: Sell Bitcoin today from $107,500, targeting $106,800. Exit shorts at $106,800 and consider buying on the bounce. Confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.
Scenario 2: Sell from the upper boundary at $108,100 if there is no follow-through breakout, targeting $107.500 and $106,800.
USNAS100 -Risk-Off Sentiment Keeps USNAS100 in Bearish TerritoryUSNAS100 – Bearish Momentum Holds as Traders Watch Geopolitical Risks and Fed Signals
The NASDAQ (USNAS100) remains under pressure as market sentiment stays cautious amid ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve outlook. While the geopolitical escalation has not triggered panic, it continues to weigh on risk appetite—particularly in tech-heavy indices.
Technical Outlook:
The price currently appears to be heading toward 21635. A 1H close below this level is expected to confirm further downside toward 21470.
A break below the key support zone could open the door to the next bearish leg targeting 21065.
To shift the structure to bullish, the price would need a confirmed 4H candle close above the 21790–21850 resistance zone.
Key Levels:
• Support: 21635, 21470, 21375
• Resistance: 21930, 22090, 22200
3400 3380 are the two points that determine the trend of gold📰 Impact of news:
1. Geopolitical risks
2. Expected Fed policy
📈 Market analysis:
This week, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, retail sales data, initial jobless claims and geopolitical situation will be the core factors affecting global markets. In the short term, gold rebounded after hitting the 3383 line. This round of decline was relatively rapid. At the same time, there is a certain resistance at the 3405-3410 line above in the short term, which is also the main reason for our long orders to leave the market. In the short term, it is recommended to first look at the support situation at the 3380 line below, and then enter the long order after obtaining effective support above this position. On the contrary, if it falls below this short-term support, the gold price is expected to fall to the 3350 mark! For the evening layout, it is recommended to focus on the 3400 long-short watershed, pay attention to the 3410 line of resistance, and pay attention to the 3380 line of support below.
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3390-3380
TP 3400-3410-3420
SELL 3400-3390
TP 3380-3360-3350
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Testing Upper Channel Line || Eyes on 1.16 and Previous High📌 EURUSD 4H – Testing Upper Channel | Eyes on 1.1600-1.1666
🕓 June 12, 2025
👤 By: MJTrading
🔍 Technical Overview:
EURUSD continues its upward trajectory within a clean ascending channel, respecting both dynamic structure and EMA support zones. We're now retesting a key confluence area:
==============================================================
🔻 Bearish Setup Idea:
Entry Zone: 1.1570–1.1600
Stop Loss: Above 1.16666 (round number & psychological resistance)
Target: Channel midline (~1.1450) or lower band (~1.1380)
🧠 Why This Zone Matters:
🔺 Previous Swing Highs: Price is revisiting the April peak zone (~1.1570)
🧱 Round Number Confluence: 1.1600 & 1.1666
📉 Rising Channel Resistance: Upper boundary hit after extended leg
🔄 Potential Mean Reversion: EMAs are lagging behind price
⚠️ Invalidation:
A clean break and close above 1.1700 with follow-through may invalidate short bias and signal continuation toward 1.1800+
💬 Patience is power. Let the levels do the talking.
📎 #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #TechnicalTrading #SmartMoney #PriceAction #RoundNumberLevels #MJTRADING
The best opportunity is when crude oil falls
💡Message Strategy
Crude oil futures fell in the European session on Monday (June 16), giving up earlier gains, as a new round of hostilities between Israel and Iran had limited impact on oil production and exports.
WTI briefly rebounded to $77.49, close to last week's high, which was also our second profit target, but failed to break through the key resistance level near $78.09.
Oil prices surged 7% on Friday, driven by geopolitical risks, pushing crude to its highest level since January. However, Monday's reversal reflected the lack of immediate threats to supply routes, especially the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
If Iran's production drops sharply due to the conflict, the global oil supply buffer will be quickly exhausted and oil prices may usher in a new round of surges. Faced with this complex situation, investors, oil-producing countries and consumers need to be prepared to meet the possible energy storm.
This is also the reason why we repeatedly emphasize that crude oil should be long when it falls. We can foresee its upward momentum, and the pullback is only in a moment without any signs.
📊Technical aspects
The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continued to fluctuate upward, and the price near 74 was tested. The moving average system relies on the bullish arrangement of oil prices, and the short-term objective trend direction remains upward.
In the morning, the oil price hit a new high near 75.30, and then fell back and closed with a negative real candlestick. The short-term momentum is still bullish, and it is expected that the trend of crude oil will continue to maintain a high-level oscillating upward rhythm.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position:69.50-70.50
The first target is around 73.00
The second target is around 75.00
Trading Signals for Gold Sell below $3,443 (21 SMA -7/8 Murrray)The XAU/USD trend remains bullish as long as the price consolidates above 3,384.
Therefore, it would be prudent to buy gold as long as the price consolidates above3,444, where the 7/8 Murray level is located.
Gold's volatility will continue over the next few days, so we believe it could move between 3,386 and 3,356.
Consequently, if gold consolidates and breaks above 3.498, it would be seen as a buying opportunity, with targets at the 8/8 Murray level around 3,600/
Last tow months, gold gapped around 3,498. This will likely be seen as a buying opportunity if the price breaks above the psychological level of $3,439
Conversely, below the R_1 around 3,443, gold will be seen as an opportunity to sell, targeting 3,400 and the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,338.
The RSI indicator is showing a negative signal, so we must be cautious when buying, as a very strong technical correction could occur.
Analysis and Forecast for EUE/USDToday, the EUR/USD pair is under pressure, having failed to consolidate above the 1.1447 level and showing intraday declines toward the psychological level of 1.1415 and below, amid U.S. dollar strength.
The main drive of the dollar's rise was Friday's strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which reduced expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. In addition, optimism surrounding the potential resumption of U.S. -China trade talks is dampening bearish sentiment toward the dollar, thereby adding further pressure on EU/USD.
Nevertheless. ongoing negotiation in London and the upcoming key U.S. inflation data later this week are prompting traders to remain cautious and refrain from opening aggressive positions. The market still considers a September Fed rate cut likely, and concerns about the U.S. government's fiscal position are limiting the dollar's upside potential, which in turn lends some support to the euro.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank signaled at its latest meeting that the current rate-cutting cycle may be nearing an end. This also supports the euro and helps limit EUR/USD losses. In the absence of significant economic releases from the eurozone or the U.S. today, the pair's movement is mainly driven by dollar dynamics.
Technically, in order to resume upward movement, EUR/USD needs to break through resistance in the 1.1450-1.1460 level, which could open the path toward the psychological level of 1.1500. A break above that could lead to a retest of late-April highs. Otherwise, the risk of further decline toward the 1.1370 support level remains. However, oscillators on the daily chart are still in positive territory, indicating a generally constructive outlook for the pair.
In the short term, caution advised, with focus on signals from the trade negotiations and upcoming economic data.
Gold bulls may restart at any time, buy gold!Although compared with the performance of gold during the day, gold only touched 3452 and then began to retreat, and even failed to approach the previous high of 3500, gold is not strong; but based on the current fundamentals and technical structure, gold is currently in a very strong bullish structure; so I think the gold retracement is not a sign of gold weakness, but to increase liquidity, so that gold can rise better and prepare in advance for breaking through 3500! Gold bulls are ready to restart at any time after the retracement!
So for short-term trading, I don’t think the gold retracement is a reason for weakness, nor is it a certificate for chasing short gold; on the contrary, I think the gold retracement is a good time to buy on dips; first of all, the support area we have to pay attention to is the 3410-3400 area, and the second must pay attention to the 3390-3380 area support.
So in the next transaction, we might as well use these two support areas as defense and start to go long on gold in batches!
HYPE/USDT – 4H Chart Analysis PUMP TO $50??HYPE/USDT – 4H Chart Analysis
Volume (OBV Indicator):
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has broken above its local resistance level, indicating a notable increase in bullish volume inflow. This supports the current upward momentum.
Market Structure:
High Time Frame (HTF): Still bullish.
Lower Time Frame (LTF): Currently consolidating within a bullish pennant pattern.
Price has recently closed just above the pennant’s resistance line, suggesting a potential breakout and continuation of the bullish trend.
Key Zones & Levels:
Supply Zone: Price is currently testing this zone. A successful hold and breakout above the previous swing high would confirm bullish continuation.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
A small FVG exists just beneath current price between key support/resistance levels. This may act as a short-term magnet for price (potential retracement).
Two larger FVGs on the 1D time frame lie below the current support and prior swing low. If price moves into these levels, it would likely be a liquidity sweep, trap, or fakeout scenario.
Psychological Levels: $40.00 and $45.00 are the next logical upside targets if bullish momentum continues beyond the swing high.
Trade Setup:
Entry: At the 0.28 Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop Loss: Just below the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Take Profit (Partial): At the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, aligning with a psychological resistance zone.
Summary:
The breakout from the bullish pennant, combined with increasing volume (OBV breakout), suggests strong bullish momentum. As long as price holds above the pennant and key support, continuation toward $40–$45 remains the probable scenario. Any dip into the lower FVGs would likely be a liquidity event rather than a trend reversal.
(NOTE: This is not financial advice, it is recommended to always (DYOR) (Do Your Own Research)
SPX500 – Cautious Optimism as Market Eyes Fed DecisionSPX500 – Cautious Optimism as Market Eyes Fed Decision
Futures tied to the S&P 500 are slightly higher as traders appear to be shrugging off Middle East tensions, viewing the situation as contained for now. However, geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk, and attention is shifting toward upcoming Fed commentary and policy direction.
Technical Outlook:
The index may pull back toward 5989 and 5966. A break below 5966 opens the path toward 5938, with an extended target at 5902.
However, a 1H close above 6010 would signal renewed bullish momentum toward 6041.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 6041, 6098, 6143
• Support: 5966, 5938, 5902
Beyond the News: Why I Trust the Charts When Trading GoldBased on the current structure, I believe gold is in the fifth wave of a larger Elliott Wave formation. On the higher time frame, the price action appears to be contained within a channel that resembles a leading diagonal pattern—where Wave 1 is typically the longest. From this perspective, I anticipate a potential retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the most recent upward move, or a test of the lower boundary of the channel before a reversal may occur.
My trading plan involves two potential entry strategies:
Enter at the 0.618 Fib retracement with a stop-loss set near the 0.881 level.
Wait for a bounce off the lower channel, followed by a pullback and a breakout above the start of the pullback before entering the position.
While no trader can be right all the time, having a structured plan with predefined take-profit and stop-loss levels is key to effective risk management and long-term survival in the markets.
Why I Favor Technical Over Fundamental Analysis
For those wondering why I rely more on technical analysis—especially Elliott Wave Theory—over fundamental news, here’s my reasoning:
I’ve found that news and earnings-based trades often behave irrationally. A company may report strong earnings and guidance, only to see its stock sell off, fake a rally the next day, and then sell off again. Conversely, a company with poor earnings may drop ahead of the report, only to rally immediately after. These inconsistencies made it difficult to build a reliable strategy based solely on fundamental data.
Over time, I observed that despite news events, the market often completes its technical structure—such as Elliott Wave formations and Fibonacci cycles—before fully reacting to news. In these cases, fundamental developments tend to accelerate or confirm the direction already implied by the technical setup, rather than override it.
Gold is no exception. While it's common to assume that the S&P 500 (ES) and gold move in opposite directions due to risk-on/risk-off dynamics, I’ve noticed that they can trend in the same direction when their respective Elliott Wave structures align. This doesn't eliminate the inverse correlation concept entirely, but it highlights the importance of integrating technical analysis into a fundamentally driven view for more precise entries and exits.
Ultimately, I view fundamentals as the fuel, and technicals as the engine that defines the path.
ETHUSDT Daily: Navigating the "Deciding Area" Chart Overview:
The ETHUSDT Daily chart presents a compelling narrative of a significant uptrend, followed by a sharp correction, and now shows price approaching a critical inflection point. Key support and resistance zones, along with a crucial trendline, define the current market structure. The chart is labeled "Bullish," suggesting the analyst's long-term bias or expectation of a continuation of the prior uptrend.
1. The Prior Bullish Trend (Late 2023 - Early 2025):
Long-Term Uptrend Line (Green): From around September 2023 into early 2025, ETHUSDT exhibited a strong bullish trend, respecting a clear upward-sloping trendline (highlighted in green). Price consistently found support on this trendline, indicating robust buying pressure and a controlled ascent.
Key Resistance ($3900 to $4000): During this period, ETH encountered significant resistance around the $3900 to $4000 zone. This area represents a supply zone where sellers stepped in, preventing further upward movement on multiple attempts.
2. The Major Correction & Trendline Breakdown (Early 2025):
Sharp Downturn: In early 2025, ETHUSDT experienced a steep and aggressive correction. This bearish impulse led to a decisive breakdown below the long-term green uptrend line.
Shift in Momentum: The breach of this established trendline was a critical event, signaling a significant shift in short-to-medium term momentum from bullish to bearish.
3. Finding Support & Bounce Back:
Weekly Support ($2000 to $2200): After the breakdown, price found initial strong support in the $2000 to $2200 zone. This area had acted as a crucial pivot in previous price history, demonstrating its significance as a demand zone.
Strong Support ($1400 to $1500): Below the weekly support, the $1400 to $1500 zone is identified as "Strong support." This would be the next major demand area if the 2000−2200 level were to fail. The chart shows price briefly dipping below the 2000−2200 zone before finding a base and initiating a strong rebound.
Recent Bounce: The current price action shows a strong bounce from the lows reached after the trendline breakdown, indicating renewed buying interest and an attempt to recover.
4. The "Deciding Area" ($2900 to $3000 & Red Trendline):
Confluence of Resistance: The most critical area on the chart is the "Deciding Area," which represents a confluence of significant resistance levels:
The Former Green Trendline (now acting as resistance): What was once a strong support trendline has now likely flipped to become a resistance trendline (implied by the red line, which is parallel or an extension of the green line). Price often retests broken trendlines before continuing in the new direction.
Horizontal Resistance Zone ($2900 to $3000): This grey box aligns with previous support/resistance levels and now acts as a key overhead supply zone.
Current Price Engagement: Price is currently approaching the lower boundary of this "Deciding Area." This zone will determine the immediate future direction of ETH.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation (Breakout): If ETHUSDT can successfully break above the "Deciding Area" ($2900 to $3000 zone and the red trendline) with strong volume, it would signal a significant shift in buying conviction. The next logical target would be the "Key Resistance $3900 to $4000" area, and potentially a retest of its all-time highs. The current bullish arrow on the chart suggests this is the anticipated move if the "Deciding Area" is breached.
Bearish Rejection (Reversal): A strong rejection from the "Deciding Area" could see ETHUSDT consolidate or retrace back towards the "Weekly Support $2000 to $2200" zone. A failure to hold this support could then lead to a test of the "Strong Support $1400 to $1500."
Conclusion:
ETHUSDT is at a pivotal point, engaging with a highly significant "Deciding Area" that combines both horizontal and trendline resistance. The ability of the bulls to push through this zone will be crucial for determining whether the rally from the recent lows can continue towards prior highs or if ETH will face another period of consolidation or deeper correction. Traders should closely monitor price action and volume at these critical levels for confirmation of the next directional move.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
USDJPY Long potential setupWhat's going on?
USDJPY – Reload Zone Marked. If They Take Me Out, I’ll Be Waiting Lower.
Discipline means you don’t chase. You wait where the market must return.
Currently in 2 buys, one is an added position, then I moved my stop in from the purple line— but if those get wicked out, I’m hunting the next key demand zone just beneath 144.10. Where we'll have a textbook spring setup!
🧠 What I See:
We're forming a potential micro accumulation structure.
If the current position gets taken out, I’ll reload lower at the spring aligned with the prior reaction low + liquidity sweep zone.
🎯 Next Area of Interest:
Zone: 144.00 – 144.10
📌 Target Remains:
144.76 → 145.36
1.618 extension aligns with supply inefficiencies & range completion
---
> “Stop loss isn’t failure. It’s recon. The second entry — that’s where pros feast.”
I’m not trading emotion. I’m trading plan + precision + execution.
Gold Reclaims Bullish Zone—Perfect Time for a Swing EntryGold has once again reclaimed bullish momentum after breaking through the key support zone around $3,412, previously a stubborn ceiling that had acted as resistance multiple times throughout late May and early June. The break above this level—validated by a decisive green Supertrend flip—indicates a short-term trend reversal in favor of buyers.
After a brief consolidation phase, XAUUSD formed a solid breakout candle, confirming upward momentum. The current price action sits comfortably above the Supertrend line, which is now acting as dynamic support, while volume has picked up notably during the move up—an important confirmation of institutional interest and breakout strength.
Trade Setup Breakdown
• Entry: Above the $3,412 breakout area (now acting as support)
• Stop Loss: Below the key support zone, ideally near $3,373–$3,375 to allow for wick re-tests and avoid premature exits
• Target/TP: Resistance zone marked near $3,484–$3,500, which aligns with a prior consolidation ceiling from late April and early May. This target offers a risk-reward ratio of approx. 2.3:1, which is favorable for a swing position.
• Re-entry Opportunity: If gold retraces back to the $3,373–$3,383 zone (support cluster), it would provide a high-probability re-entry while keeping the same TP of $3,500.
Why the Bias Is Bullish
1. Structure Break & Supertrend Flip
The key breakout above previous resistance was clean and confirmed by the Supertrend flip to green, a historically reliable short-term bullish signal.
2. Volume Confirmation
Volume spikes on the breakout candles confirm real buying pressure—not just a false breakout or low-liquidity movement.
3. Support Retest Potential
The $3,412–$3,383 zone now forms a strong demand area where buyers are likely to defend their positions if price pulls back. This zone also aligns with historical congestion from earlier price action.
4. Macro Context (Not in chart but relevant)
Ongoing economic uncertainty, rising global tensions, and interest rate speculation continue to boost gold's safe-haven appeal. Traders are increasingly rotating into gold during periods of macro volatility.
Outlook
Gold is likely to continue climbing toward the $3,500 mark unless it closes below $3,373 on high volume. Bulls appear to be in control, and even a minor pullback could serve as a buying opportunity. As long as the price remains above the flipped Supertrend and $3,373 support, the bullish case remains intact.