🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY Weekly Plan – CPI Could Trigger Reversal🌍 Macro Outlook – Inflation in Focus This Week
USDJPY is entering a critical week with high-impact US economic releases, particularly inflation and retail sales data, which could strongly influence dollar momentum.
🔔 Key Events (GMT):
Tuesday (Jul 15)
– US Core CPI, CPI m/m, CPI y/y
– Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wednesday (Jul 16)
– US PPI (Core + Headline)
– UK CPI y/y
Thursday (Jul 17)
– US Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
– GBP Labour Market Report
Friday (Jul 18)
– US Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
⚠️ Higher-than-expected inflation could drive USDJPY toward fresh highs.
But if data cools or jobs data weakens, JPY strength may pull the pair back down sharply.
📊 Technical Analysis – H4 Smart Money Structure
🔻 SELL ZONE
147.800 – 148.000
SL: 148.300
Weekly high with strong liquidity
Diagonal resistance and BOS (Break of Structure) area
Rejection expected if CPI cools or yields drop
🟢 BUY REACTION ZONE
144.300 – 144.100
SL: 144.000
FVG + previous supply turned demand
Good for a bounce or short-term scalp
🟢 STRONG DEMAND ZONE
142.500 – 142.300
SL: 142.000
Aligned with trendline and structural low
Swing entry if price dumps post-news
🧠 Market Structure Insight:
USDJPY still trending upwards, but RSI divergence and liquidity sweep suggest correction is likely.
Price could form a lower high near 147.800 before retracing to deeper zones.
Key confluences align with macro data timing.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
🔹 Scenario 1 – Short Setup
Entry: 147.800–148.000
SL: 148.300
TP1: 146.000
TP2: 144.300
TP3: 142.300 (Open if USD weakens)
🔹 Scenario 2 – Reaction Buy
Entry: 144.300–144.100
SL: 144.000
TP1: 145.500
TP2: 146.700
TP3: Open
🔹 Scenario 3 – Swing Buy
Entry: 142.500–142.300
SL: 142.000
TP1: 144.000
TP2: 146.000
TP3: 147.800 (if trend resumes)
🔍 Key Price Levels to Watch
148.000 – Weekly Liquidity Zone
144.300 – Short-Term Support / Reaction
142.300 – Swing Buy Zone
📣 Analyst’s Note:
This week, USDJPY direction hinges on US inflation data.
A hot CPI print may push prices toward 148, while weak data could drive a deeper pullback to 144 or 142.
Trade smart, manage risk, and don’t chase breakouts before confirmation.
