USDCAD - Big Picture and MomentumBig Picture and Momentum
USD/CAD is trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA (~1.3728) and above the 9-day EMA, indicating continued bullish momentum. The 14-day RSI is above the 50 level, confirming the positive market sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance
Resistance: 1.3770–1.3798 range is the current target, a break of which could open the way to the January high around 1.4016.
Support:
50-day EMA (~1.3728) is the first line of defense.
Next is the 9-day EMA (~1.3679).
A further weakening could see a decline to 1.3560, and a strong correction could see a decline to the February 2024 lows (~1.3420).
Market Behavior Scenarios
Bullish scenario: holding above EMA with RSI > 50 creates good conditions for a move up to 1.3770-1.3800, and then to 1.4016, with increasing momentum.
Bearish scenario: falling below EMA, especially below 1.3679, can lead to a deeper decline - to 1.3560 and then to 1.3420.
Recommendations for traders
Long position: can be considered for entry when holding above 1.3728, with a target of 1.3770-1.3800, and a stop just below the EMA.
Short position: justified when falling below 1.3728-1.3679, with a target of 1.3560, and a stop just above the EMA level.
