USDJPYHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDJPY?
On the USD/JPY chart, price is currently moving within a symmetrical triangle pattern and is approaching the upper trendline and a key resistance zone.
We expect that upon testing this resistance level, price will likely fail to break above it and enter a bearish phase, potentially falling at least to the specified support level.
For higher-confidence sell entries, it’s recommended to wait for a confirmed downside break of the lower trendline of the triangle, which would validate a bearish continuation.
Will this resistance hold and trigger a drop, or will bulls take control? Share your thoughts below! 🤔👇
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USDJPY
USDJPY – Triangle Complete? Wave (v) Setup BuildingWave (iv) appears to be ending with an (e) wave tag into the 0.764 retracement.
📉 Price remains capped within the contracting triangle — watching closely for breakdown confirmation.
If this plays out, wave (v) of C could now begin unfolding with initial focus on 140.00 and below.
🧩 Structure: (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) triangle complete
📏 Final wave (e) aligns with 0.764 retracement and structural resistance
⚠️ RSI divergence + weakening momentum support the bearish scenario
GBPJPY I Expect a Rally from the Buy Zone in the 1H Time FrameDescription:
I'm viewing the 195.116–194.845 range on GBPJPY as a strong buy zone. My target is 196.088. Once the trade setup becomes active or the target is reached, I’ll be sharing an update here. Stay tuned!
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USDJPY - UniverseMetta - Signal#USDJPY - UniverseMetta - Signal
D1 - Formation of a triangular structure + the price is at the upper border.
H4 - It is better to wait for the trend line to break through. It is better to reduce risks if we consider entering at the market. Stop behind the maximum of wave D.
Entry: 144.367 - *144.705
TP: 143.402 - 142.094 - 140.023 - 138.706
Stop: 145.473
Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout?USDJPY 17/06 – Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout?
The USDJPY pair is currently consolidating just below the key 144.650 resistance, stuck within a tightening triangle structure. As markets await more clarity from both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed, price action is showing signs of indecision — but pressure is building.
🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview
BOJ maintains a neutral stance: Despite growing speculation of a hawkish shift, the BOJ held rates steady, providing no strong forward guidance. Markets remain cautious.
US Dollar remains resilient amid stable bond yields and expectations that the Fed may delay rate cuts, adding short-term support to USDJPY.
Geopolitical risk is on the rise: Ongoing Middle East tensions are fueling safe-haven demand for JPY, capping bullish momentum.
🔍 Technical Setup (M30 Chart)
Price is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle, tightening between 144.652 resistance and 143.126 support.
EMA 13/34/89 are aligned bullishly, but EMA 200 (red) is acting as a dynamic ceiling near 144.300.
Key support zones:
144.071: Minor structural level and trendline test.
143.126: Major liquidity zone and untested demand.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
📉 Scenario 1 – Sell on Rejection at 144.652
Entry: 144.650–144.700
Stop Loss: 145.250
Take Profit: 144.071 → 143.600 → 143.126
Ideal if BOJ shifts tone or USD weakens post-Fed comments.
📈 Scenario 2 – Buy on Bullish Reaction at 143.126
Entry: 143.100–143.150
Stop Loss: 142.700
Take Profit: 143.600 → 144.071 → 144.650 → 145.200
Valid only with clear bullish confirmation on M15–M30 structure.
🧠 Final Thoughts
USDJPY is coiling tightly ahead of a potential breakout. Macro uncertainty from central banks, geopolitical instability, and upcoming CPI data make this week highly volatile. Instead of chasing, let price come to your zones and react accordingly.
🔔 Focus on structure, confirm with price action, and avoid emotional trades. Patience and discipline are key in this compression phase.
Bank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate UnchangedBank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged
This morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged as widely expected. According to Forex Factory, the BOJ Policy Rate remains at 0.5%.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the following:
→ Japan’s economy is recovering moderately.
→ The Bank will continue raising rates if economic and inflationary conditions improve.
→ The situation surrounding trade tariffs remains highly uncertain.
The fact that the decision was anticipated by markets is reflected in price action on the charts.
Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart
A brief spike in volatility occurred on the USD/JPY chart this morning, but it did not significantly alter the broader structure of price movements, which in June have formed a contracting triangle pattern.
In recent days, the pair has been climbing from the lower boundary of the triangle toward the upper edge, forming a short-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue). However, in the near term, this bullish momentum may weaken as the USD/JPY rate approaches the upper boundary of the triangle, which coincides with the psychologically significant level of 145 yen to the dollar (indicated by arrows).
From a medium-term perspective, traders should watch for a potential breakout from the triangle pattern, which could trigger a meaningful trend. One possible catalyst could be news of a trade agreement between the United States and Japan.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDJPY What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 145.13
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 145.55
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clearshort signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 144.31
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY Bearish BreakdownChart Overview
The USDJPY pair on the 2-hour chart is currently forming a descending triangle pattern — a typical bearish continuation setup.
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Key Observations:
Resistance Line (Upper Trendline): Price is repeatedly rejected from lower highs.
Support Line (Lower Horizontal): Price maintains support around the 144.00–144.20 region.
Bearish Bias: The red arrow projection suggests a breakdown from the triangle, with a potential move toward 140.00 if the lower support fails.
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Potential Bearish Scenario:
1. Break below ~144.00 confirms the triangle breakdown.
2. First target around 142.00, second target near 140.00.
3. Stop-loss ideally above 145.00 if entering short.
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Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 17, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues to experience significant pressure against the US dollar (USD), showing a three-day decline and trading above the key psychological level of 145.000. This weakening is largely due to growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay raising rates until the first quarter of next year. The main reason for this delay is said to be the continuing uncertainty surrounding future US tariff policy, which could have a significant impact on global trade flows and Japan's economic growth. Moderate but steady growth in the US dollar is also contributing to the strengthening of the USD/JPY position, pushing the pair to new highs during the Asian trading session.
However, market participants are cautious about aggressive bearish bets against the yen ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. This meeting is seen as a critical event that could provide additional signals about the central bank's long-term policy outlook. Any hints of a change in tone or new assessments of the economic situation will be carefully analyzed by traders.
In addition to central bank decisions, growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may help limit deeper losses for the Japanese yen. As a traditional “safe haven,” the yen typically attracts investors during periods of global instability, which may offset some of the negative impact of interest rate differentials. In addition, the outlook for the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the growing recognition that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower borrowing costs in 2025. Expectations of future Fed rate cuts could hinder further strengthening of the US dollar and thus limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair. Overall, the market remains in anticipation of key decisions that will determine the future trajectory of one of the world's most actively traded currency pairs.
Trading recommendation: SELL 144.550, SL 145.000, TP 143.600
Bearish breakout off major support?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and a breakout of this level could lead the price to drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 144.51
1st Support: 143.74
1st Resistance: 145.22
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GOLD - WAVE 5 BULLISH TO $3,622 (UPDATE)Gold is currently going through a strong 'accumulation' phase for buyers, hence why we're seeing these choppy price actions, trying to liquidate buyers. It won't surprise me if we see dips lower, but overall we remain bullish as long as Gold is ABOVE THE WAVE 2 LOW. Breaking below this low, will invalidate bullish structure.
Wave 2 Invalidation Level - $3,245❌
Leg Based Continuation Possible Play📈 USD/JPY – 15M Chart (Scalping to Intraday Play)
🕒 June 17, 2025 – Lower Time Frame Setup
Bias: Short-term Bullish Continuation
Structure: Leg-Based Impulse-Pullback-Impulse Model
🔹 Market Structure Insight:
Price recently completed a strong impulsive move (LEG 1) on increasing volume.
After a shallow correction into dynamic support (EMA 60), price is attempting a LEG 2 continuation.
EMAs (15 & 60) have bullish alignment and acted as dynamic support.
✅ Buy #1 – Market Execution
Entry: 144.91 (current or recent execution)
SL: 144.38
TP: 145.25
R:R ≈ 1
🧠 Entry based on continuation after bullish flag breakout
✅ Price held higher low structure + EMA confluence
✅ Buy Limit #2 – Pullback Opportunity
Entry: 144.59 (highlighted zone between EMAs)
SL: 144.37
TP: 145.25
R:R ≈ 3.0
🧠 Designed to catch a retest into the mid-range and volume base
➕ Risk minimized, reward optimized
➕ Matches possible HL (higher low) setup if price dips before pushing
⚠️ Risk Management Notes:
Overlap with prior resistance zone just above TP (145.20–145.40): partial TP or trail advised.
Invalidated if price closes below 144.30 on strong volume (breaks structure).
If LEG 2 matches or exceeds LEG 1 in strength, extended targets above 145.50 possible.
USD/JPY: Yen Continues to Lose Ground Against the U.S. DollarOver the past three trading sessions, USD/JPY has risen by more than 1%, favoring the U.S. dollar, as the yen continues to weaken steadily. The bullish bias has persisted, supported by a rebound in dollar strength. The DXY index, which measures the dollar's performance against other major currencies, has been climbing in the short term and is once again approaching the 100-point mark, signaling growing confidence in the dollar’s movements. If this dollar strength persists, buying pressure in USD/JPY may become increasingly dominant.
Consistent Downtrend
Since early January of this year, USD/JPY has been consolidating consistent downward movements, shaping a solid bearish trend that has lasted through recent months. Currently, price action is once again testing a resistance zone, aligned with the downtrend line, but buying momentum has not been strong enough to break through. As a result, the dominant trend remains bearish, unless a significant bullish breakout manages to disrupt the pattern.
Neutrality in Indicators
At the moment, the RSI line is oscillating near the 50 level, while the MACD histogram remains close to the zero line. These patterns suggest a state of equilibrium between buying and selling pressure, which has led to a series of neutral movements. As long as both indicators remain in this range, it reflects a lack of dominance by either market force in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
145.470 – Short-Term Barrier: A level where potential bearish corrections could emerge, especially as price remains near the downtrend line under conditions of neutrality.
148.012 – Major Resistance: This corresponds to the recent multi-month highs. Sustained buying above this level could threaten the prevailing bearish trend.
142.367 – Critical Support: A level aligned with the lowest prices of recent months, which has been repeatedly respected, increasing its strength in the short term. A breakdown here could trigger a renewed bearish bias, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Follow him at: @julianpineda25
AUDUSD TECHNICALS AND FUNDAMENTALS DETAILED ANALYSISAUDUSD has officially broken out of a multi-week ascending triangle structure, and momentum is now building for a bullish continuation. The price is currently trading around 0.6533 after a strong breakout above the 0.6520 resistance zone. This consolidation was forming higher lows, signaling accumulation and bullish intent. The clean breakout above the horizontal resistance confirms buyers are in control. With this pattern validated, my short-term target is 0.6700–0.6750, aligning with the measured move projection.
From a macro perspective, AUD is gaining strength due to a divergence in monetary policy outlooks. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains hawkish, supported by sticky inflation data and a tight labor market, while the Federal Reserve has recently hinted at a dovish turn, acknowledging signs of economic slowdown. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar index (DXY) and rising commodity prices—especially iron ore and copper—are tailwinds for the Australian dollar. These fundamental shifts are reinforcing the bullish technical breakout.
On the 8H chart, the ascending triangle is a clear signal of bullish pressure. The zone around 0.6450–0.6520 acted as strong demand during the consolidation phase. A successful breakout retest of this zone could offer secondary entry opportunities. The risk-reward ratio is attractive, with a defined invalidation below the trendline and a target extending toward yearly highs near 0.6750.
This setup stands out as high-probability. With bullish price action, supportive fundamentals, and risk-on sentiment returning across FX majors, AUDUSD is primed for further upside. I’m holding long with conviction, expecting continuation toward the projected breakout target. This trade aligns with current market structure, trend strength, and macro drivers—perfect timing in a trending market environment.
Potential bullish reversal?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could rise from this level to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 143.79
1st Support: 139.64
1st Resistance: 148.91
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY TRADE OPPORTUNITY.This chart represents a short (sell) trade setup for USD/JPY on the 15-minute timeframe.
Chart Breakdown:
Trendline: A clear descending trendline indicates a bearish market structure.
Entry Zone: The price is expected to enter the resistance area (marked as "Entry Zone") around 144.191.
Stop Loss (SL): Placed above the resistance zone at 144.529, in case the price breaks out upward.
Target 1: 143.744 – the first level of potential profit-taking.
Target 2: 143.379 – further continuation of the bearish move.
Final Target: 143.076 – the major target if bearish momentum continues.
Idea Summary:
This setup anticipates that the price will reject the trendline and entry zone and then drop to lower support levels. It’s a classic lower high formation with trendline confluence, aiming for multiple take-profits on the way down.
USD/JPY SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USD-JPY uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 144.203 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the USD/JPY pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
USDJPY Long potential setupWhat's going on?
USDJPY – Reload Zone Marked. If They Take Me Out, I’ll Be Waiting Lower.
Discipline means you don’t chase. You wait where the market must return.
Currently in 2 buys, one is an added position, then I moved my stop in from the purple line— but if those get wicked out, I’m hunting the next key demand zone just beneath 144.10. Where we'll have a textbook spring setup!
🧠 What I See:
We're forming a potential micro accumulation structure.
If the current position gets taken out, I’ll reload lower at the spring aligned with the prior reaction low + liquidity sweep zone.
🎯 Next Area of Interest:
Zone: 144.00 – 144.10
📌 Target Remains:
144.76 → 145.36
1.618 extension aligns with supply inefficiencies & range completion
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> “Stop loss isn’t failure. It’s recon. The second entry — that’s where pros feast.”
I’m not trading emotion. I’m trading plan + precision + execution.
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Bounce Off the 50%Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 143.74, a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 144.79, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 143.29, a pullback support.
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$JPINTR -Japan Interest Rates (June/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR
(June/2025)
source: Bank of Japan
- The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during its June meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008 and aligning with market expectations.
The unanimous decision underscored the central bank’s cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical risks and lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies, both of which continue to pose threats to global economic growth.
Tokyo and Washington agreed to extend trade talks after failing to achieve a breakthrough during discussions on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada. Meanwhile, as part of its gradual policy normalization, the BoJ reaffirmed its plan to cut Japanese government bond purchases by JPY 400 billion each quarter through March 2026.
Starting April 2026, it will then slow the reduction to JPY 200 billion per quarter through March 2027, targeting a monthly purchase level of around JPY 2 trillion—signaling a measured but steady path away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
Traders, it's time to pay close attention! 🚨 USDJPY 4H Setup Alert – High-Probability Play Unfolding! 🚨
Traders, it's time to pay close attention! 🧠📊
The USDJPY pair has just perfectly tapped into a key bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the 4-hour chart — a classic move in the smart money playbook. What’s more? We've just seen a clean sweep of internal range liquidity (IRL) — a textbook liquidity grab that signals potential accumulation by larger players. 💥💼
This is not just noise — it's a significant signal. The market structure is hinting at a possible shift in momentum, and bullish pressure is building. The trap has been set, the weak hands have been shaken out, and smart money may be preparing for a strong upward push. 📈🐂
🔮 What’s the next move?
All eyes are now on the external range liquidity (ERL) — a prime liquidity pool sitting above current price levels. If price accelerates toward it, this zone could act as the magnet and the catalyst for the next explosive move upward. 🚀
🔥 Key Points to Watch:
Bullish FVG reaction ✅
IRL liquidity swept ✅
Bullish market structure forming 🏗️
ERL liquidity resting overhead — potential target 🎯
Volume profile & order flow confirming accumulation? 👀
⚠️ Stay alert and don’t chase — let the setup come to you.
Smart money might already be stepping in, and if this momentum follows through, we could be witnessing the beginning of a strong leg up.
Mark your charts and monitor closely — opportunity is knocking. 📍🕵️♂️
Stronger Dollar Pressures Yen on Geopolitical RisksThe Japanese yen fell past 144.2 per dollar on Monday, marking a second day of losses, as the U.S. dollar strengthened on increased safe-haven demand. This followed renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, with both sides targeting energy facilities and pushing oil prices higher. The rise in energy costs may reduce the chances of a near-term Fed rate cut as inflation and trade risks persist. Meanwhile, focus turns to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing the inflation impact of rising oil prices amid global uncertainty.
Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.