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DJ FXCM Index

EURUSD: Perfect spot to short.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.082, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 31.112) as it is trading inside a Channel Up since the May 12th low. The 4H RSI sequence suggests that based on the Channel's first bullish wave, the market is now on the 4th count, which was previously the top (as close to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension as possible). We turn bearish here, targeting the 0.786 Fib level at the bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 1.13550). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
USD/JPY Gearing Up for Breakout ? Watch 145.20...USD/JPY Technical Setup – Bullish Continuation in Play? USD/JPY is currently respecting a short-term ascending trendline, indicating sustained buying interest. The price consolidates just below a key resistance zone around 145.20, suggesting a potential breakout setup. 🔍 Key Technical Highlights: * 📈 Trendline Support: Price has consistently respected this ascending trendline, forming higher lows—a strong bullish signal. * 🔲 Resistance Zone: The 145.15–145.20 level has acted as a rejection zone previously. A breakout above this could invite momentum buying. * 🕐 Consolidation Range: The market is coiling tightly just below resistance—watch for a volatility expansion. * 🔮 Projection : If the price holds above the trendline and breaks 145.20 convincingly, we could see a bullish move towards 145.60+. ⚠️ Invalidation: A clean break below the trendline and 144.80 could shift the short-term bias back to neutral or bearish.
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
Just got the May US CPIs. PPIs next...Here is the reaction in the US instruments to the numbers. Let's dig in. TVC:DXY TVC:DJI MARKETSCOM:US500 MARKETSCOM:US100 Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPIDXY 11/06 – Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPI | Reversal Risk After 100.31? The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to consolidate within a rising channel on the H2 timeframe, with price tightening just ahead of a key macro event — the US CPI report. DXY is now approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, where liquidity hunts and potential reversals become highly probable. 🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK & MARKET SENTIMENT 📌 US CPI (June 12): The main macro driver for DXY this week. A hotter-than-expected print → strengthens the Fed’s hawkish stance → DXY likely to spike. A weaker-than-expected CPI → boosts rate cut expectations → downside pressure on DXY. 📌 Risk Sentiment: Institutions are readjusting their exposure ahead of CPI and FOMC. This has caused DXY to hover near EMA89 — a sign of indecision. 📌 Cross-asset Flows (Bonds & Gold): Treasury yields are stable, but surprises in CPI could lead to capital rotation between gold and USD, increasing volatility in XAUUSD and DXY simultaneously. 📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Trend Structure: DXY is following a clean ascending channel on H2, with higher lows respecting the lower trendline. EMA Confluence (13–34–89–200) Price is consolidating near EMA89 and below EMA200 (99.40), forming a neutral short-term bias. A clean breakout above EMA200 could trigger acceleration into the FVG zone. Key FVG Zone (H2): 99.63 – 100.31 is an unfilled Fair Value Gap. This zone may act as a magnet for price before any meaningful rejection or breakout. Potential Reversal Area: A rejection at 100.31 could trigger a sharp pullback toward the liquidity zone around 98.68. 🧠 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK CPI will set the tone for DXY’s mid-term trend. Watch the 99.63 – 100.31 FVG zone for liquidity sweeps and potential rejection. Wait for confirmation, not prediction — especially in macro-sensitive environments.
TVC:DXYLong
by MMFlowTrading
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 98.91 1st Support: 98.36 1st Resistance: 99.60 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
1
USD/CAD - Channel Breakout (10.06.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3757 2nd Resistance – 1.3792 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
35
EURUSD Buy the next dip and target 1.17700The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern and is currently on its 2nd Bullish Leg that hasn't yet been completed. It does print an identical price action to the 1st Bullish Leg of the pattern, having already made its first pull-back near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and is now rising for the 2nd rejection. Our plan is to buy the next dip and target 1.17700, which is the -0.136 Fibonacci extension, the level where the 1st Bullish Leg topped. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
"Vault Breached! NZD/USD Bullish Loot (Live Heist)"🚨 "THE KIWI BANK HEIST" 🏦💰 NZD/USD Bullish Raid – Loot Fast Before the Cops Arrive! 🌟 Greetings, Money Bandits! 🌟 (Hola! Bonjour! Ciao! Konnichiwa!) 🔥 Thief Trading Intel: The Vault is Open! 🏦➡️📈 – Price is bullish, but overbought. Red Zone = Police Trap! 🚨 (Resistance/Reversal Risk) Escape Plan: Take profits near 0.62400 (or bail early if traps trigger). 🔐 ENTRY: "BREAK IN NOW!" "Buy the dip!" – Use 15M/30M swing lows for stealthy entries. Set Alerts! ⏰ (Don’t miss the heist!) 🛑 STOP-LOSS: "THIEF’S SAFETY NET" "Hide at 0.59500 (4H Swing Low)" – Adjust based on your loot size! 🎯 TARGET: "GRAB & VANISH!" "0.62400 or escape earlier!" – Don’t get greedy; cops (bears) are lurking. ⚡ SCALPERS’ NOTE: "Only steal LONG!" – Use trailing SL to protect your bag. "Rich? Charge in! Poor? Wait for swings!" 📡 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP: "Kiwi is bullish… but check the news!" 📰 (COT, Macro Data, Sentiment) ⚠️ ALERT: Avoid trading during high-impact news – cops (volatility) love chaos! 💥 BOOST THIS HEIST! (Like & Share = More Loot!) 🚀 "Support the crew! Hit 👍, and let’s rob this market blind!" 💸🤝 Next heist coming soon… Stay tuned, bandits! 🏴‍☠️🎭
Long
by Thief_Trader
Bearish continuation?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 100.54 1st Support: 98.32 1st Resistance: 101.78 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
The Unraveling of an Empire: How Bitcoin Could Break the DollarFor decades, the U.S. dollar has reigned supreme, an undisputed king in the global financial arena. It is the world's primary reserve currency, the bedrock of international trade, and the safe-haven asset investors flock to in times of turmoil. This dominance has afforded the United States what has been called an "exorbitant privilege," allowing it to borrow cheaply and exert significant influence over the world economy. But the ground beneath this financial empire is beginning to shift. A confluence of mounting debt, shifting geopolitical sands, and the rise of a revolutionary technology is creating the conditions for a challenger to emerge. That challenger is Bitcoin. Born from the ashes of the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin represents a radical departure from the centrally controlled monetary systems that have governed economies for centuries. It is a decentralized, digital currency, free from the whims of governments and central banks. While initially dismissed as a niche interest for tech enthusiasts and a tool for illicit activities, Bitcoin has steadily gained traction, evolving into a trillion-dollar asset class that is now capturing the attention of institutional investors, corporations, and even nation-states. The question is no longer whether Bitcoin is a fleeting fad, but whether it possesses the power to fundamentally disrupt, and perhaps even break, the long-standing hegemony of the U.S. dollar. A Hedge Against a Failing System One of the most compelling arguments for Bitcoin's ascendancy lies in its inherent properties as a store of value, particularly in an era of unprecedented monetary expansion and soaring national debt. Unlike the U.S. dollar, which can be printed at will by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin has a finite supply capped at 21 million coins. This predictable scarcity is a powerful antidote to the inflationary pressures that erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies. As governments around the world, and particularly the United States, continue to accumulate staggering levels of debt, the temptation to devalue their currencies through inflation grows. The U.S. national debt, now standing at tens of trillions of dollars, raises serious questions about the long-term sustainability of the dollar's value. In this environment, Bitcoin's unalterable monetary policy makes it an increasingly attractive safe haven for those seeking to preserve their wealth. The trend of "de-dollarization" is already underway, with several countries actively seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade and reserves. Geopolitical rivals like China and Russia have been at the forefront of this movement, but even traditional allies are beginning to explore alternatives. The weaponization of the dollar through sanctions has further accelerated this trend, prompting nations to seek financial systems that are not subject to the political whims of a single country. Bitcoin, being a politically neutral and borderless currency, offers a compelling solution. It allows for direct, peer-to-peer transactions across the globe without the need for intermediaries, thereby circumventing the traditional, dollar-dominated financial system. The Rise of a New Reserve Asset The ultimate test of a global currency is its acceptance as a reserve asset by central banks. While this may have seemed like a far-fetched idea just a few years ago, it is now a topic of serious discussion in financial circles. A handful of nations have already taken the pioneering step of adding Bitcoin to their reserves, signaling a potential paradigm shift in how countries manage their sovereign wealth. For central banks, the appeal of Bitcoin lies in its potential for diversification. By holding an asset that is not correlated with traditional stocks and bonds, they can better hedge against various economic and geopolitical risks. As more central banks begin to explore this option, even a small allocation to Bitcoin could have a significant impact on its price and legitimacy. The development of a robust financial ecosystem around Bitcoin is also paving the way for its broader adoption. The emergence of regulated exchanges, custody solutions, and investment products has made it easier for institutions to gain exposure to the asset class. This growing infrastructure is crucial for building the trust and liquidity necessary for Bitcoin to function on a global scale. The Hurdles on the Path to Dominance Despite its disruptive potential, Bitcoin faces a number of significant challenges that could hinder its ability to supplant the dollar. The most frequently cited concern is its price volatility. Wild swings in value make it a difficult medium of exchange for everyday transactions and a risky asset for conservative central banks to hold in large quantities. While volatility may decrease as the market matures, it remains a major obstacle to widespread adoption. Scalability is another critical issue. The Bitcoin network can currently only process a limited number of transactions per second, making it unsuitable for the high volume of payments required of a global currency. While second-layer solutions are being developed to address this, they have yet to be proven at a massive scale. Furthermore, the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies is still in its infancy. Governments around the world are grappling with how to approach this new technology, and the lack of clear and consistent regulations creates uncertainty for investors and businesses. The U.S. government, in particular, is unlikely to cede its monetary authority without a fight, and could impose stringent regulations that stifle Bitcoin's growth. Finally, no currency in history has achieved global dominance without the backing of a major economic and military power. The U.S. dollar's reign is underpinned by the strength of the American economy and its military might. Bitcoin, by its very nature, is decentralized and lacks the support of any single nation-state. This could be both a strength and a weakness. While it provides neutrality, it also means that there is no central authority to backstop the currency in times of crisis. A New Financial Order The notion that Bitcoin could completely break the U.S. dollar and become the sole global reserve currency in the near future remains a speculative one. The dollar's incumbency advantages are formidable, and the challenges facing Bitcoin are substantial. However, to dismiss the potential for a seismic shift in the global financial order would be to ignore the powerful forces at play. What is more likely than a complete replacement is a gradual transition to a more multipolar currency world, where Bitcoin coexists alongside the dollar, the euro, and other major currencies. In this scenario, Bitcoin could serve as a neutral reserve asset, a check on the inflationary tendencies of fiat currencies, and a parallel financial system for those who are excluded from or wish to opt out of the traditional one. The rise of Bitcoin is a clear signal that the world is yearning for a more resilient, equitable, and decentralized financial system. Whether it ultimately breaks the dollar or simply forces it to become more disciplined, one thing is certain: the future of money will look very different from its past. The quiet revolution that began with a single whitepaper is now a global movement, and the foundations of the old financial empire are beginning to tremble.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY: Approaching a bottom. Wait for the 1D MA50 to break.The U.S. Dollar Index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.278, MACD = -0.450, ADX = 23.415) as it seems to be approaching a long term support level, the bottom of the 12 month Channel Down. As long as it stays under the 1D MA50, the trend will remain bearish towards the bottom but once it crosses above, we will turn bullish and aim for a +9.95% bullish wave (TP = 107.000) same as the one before. Notice how similar the 1D RSI fractals are now and the previous bottom in September 2024. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
USD/JPY - Triangle Breakout (06.06.2025)The USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 144.94 2nd Resistance – 145.52 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
55
Just got the May NFPs... Let's have a lookWe just received the May NFPs, which, overall, are not bad. Let's dig in. TVC:DXY TVC:DJI FX_IDC:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDCAD TVC:GOLD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
USD/CHF - Triangle Breakout (06.06.2025)The USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 0.8263 2nd Resistance – 0.8227 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
28
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 98.36 1st Support: 97.98 1st Resistance: 99.23 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
USD/CAD - Bearish Flag (04.06.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3645 2nd Support – 1.3605 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
63
Mr. Wave Says... It’s Time for the Last Push!”[ b] EUR/USD is forming a clean Elliott Wave structure — and guess what? We’re at Wave 4 consolidation, and Wave 5 is about to explode upward! 🔍 Here's what we're seeing: ✅ Wave 1 to 3 already confirmed with solid impulse ✅ Wave 4 found support near previous breakout zone 🎯 Target: Upper supply zone where Wave 5 is likely to terminate 🔔 This isn’t the time to sleep on the charts. Mr. Wave is literally pointing to the target zone — and we’re not ignoring it. 😉 --- 🧠 Pro tip: Use tight risk management, ride the final push of the motive wave, and watch for reversal signals in the supply zone. --- 📌 #GreenFireForex #ElliottWave #Wave5 #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #EURUSDSetup #ForexReel #WaveTheory #SupplyZone #ForexSignal #SmartTrading
by Greenfireforex
Japanese Yen to Da Moon!I compared the yen to every single currency pair and USDJPY is the most volatile. BOJ will raise interest rates to 0.75%-1% by late 2025/early 2026. And IF the FED chooses to lower rates that will further exacerbate Yen strength. 103.156 TP, but TBH I see price breaking well past that point and yen will make new all time highs. The dollar will get desecrated across all currencies, the yen will destroy it the hardest. Most likely BTC will also peak around this same time period and youll see and end to the bull cycle and we will enter BTC bear cycle but that is beside the point. Potential Black Swan Event: the US enters into a recessionary environment, while I dont think this is likely bc everyone is saying that, it will be possible if we see a further escalation in the Ukraine conflict or if the US chooses to enter war with Iran. War is the only situation I see potential US recession. I predicted then yen would get dusted during COVID, now I predict yen will make never seen before gains for the next 5 years minimum. Let's see how this plays out.
Short
by CryptoKarmaker
2
EURUSD: Twin Channel Up structure aims for 1.14950.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.016, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 22.852) as it maintains a bullish structure consisting of successive Channel Up patterns. We are currently on the 2nd, with the price supported by both the 30m MA50 and MA200. The 1st Channel Up peaked after a +1.29% rise. We remain bullish, aiming for a similar rise, TP = 1.14950. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
Macro Outlook: Trade War Jitters, Deficit, NFP FridayAlthough there is a headline fatigue and markets have been stabilizing with the worst of trade war story behind us, the fact is that uncertainty still looms. President Trump announced over the weekend that he will double down on US steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% effective June 4th. Highlight this week is US Jobs data this Friday. A key point to determine the resilience of the US labor market. With FED Chair Powell speaking today and FED speakers scheduled throughout the week, it will be key to watch how they shape markets' probability of rate cuts? As we previously explained, ongoing uncertainty and dragging trade concerns present more risks until resolved. Here are some key points to consider: It remains to be seen whether the trade deficit will continue to worsen or begin to reverse. April trade data, along with any policy shifts such as a reversal on reciprocal tariffs, will be important to monitor. These indicators will provide insight into how businesses are interpreting ongoing trade uncertainty. The key question is whether they will continue front-loading inventory in anticipation of future disruptions, or if the focus will shift toward restructuring supply chains and reining in spending as part of a longer-term strategic adjustment. At the same time, consumer spending remains resilient, supporting overall demand. However, pressure may be building on business balance sheets, particularly businesses with poor cash flow to manage front loading inventory spending as the trade environment remains volatile. If consumer spending begins to weaken, businesses may be forced to cut costs, scale back investment, or offer steep discounts to clear excess inventory. This could lead to a cycle of margin compression, especially if firms attempt to pass higher costs onto price-sensitive consumers, potentially suppressing demand further. Conversely, if businesses choose to absorb rising costs to maintain competitive pricing, they face deteriorating margins but may be betting on continued strength in consumer credit, household savings buffers as evident. Consumer confidence, despite being low, is not an accurate indicator in times of uncertainty. Here, we should watch what consumers do and not the sentiment. In this scenario, firms may delay cost-cutting in the hope that continued strength in consumer spending will support revenues through the rest of the year. A central tension remains: businesses must navigate a delicate balance between protecting margins and preserving demand. Meanwhile, persistent trade uncertainty and tighter financial conditions may slow capital investment and hiring, further complicating the outlook. Whether firms shift from defensive postures like front-loading toward long-term structural changes in supply chains will hinge on how durable current consumer strength proves to be and how responsive trade policy becomes in the months ahead. Ongoing front-loading has caused ripples as the trade deficit has further widened. Will this reverse as businesses focus on sales and revenue instead of front-loading inventory? In our analysis, trade imports, trade balance, consumer spending and corporate profits will be key to monitor despite being lagging indicators. On the other hand, equally important to watch and monitor goods exports, durable goods to assess and evaluate the other side of the equation. However, our focus is on imports as manufacturing jobs are at their lowest in US history. Once the dust has settled and trade deals are locked in, it will be important to note if Exports by Country experience any significant shifts. What does all this mean for the stock market and futures? In simple terms, the yearly pivot and last month’s high is a major resistance area for index futures. Until this is cleared, we may see a range bound market and two way trade. There is a lot of weak structure to revisit lower. Markets may perhaps retest this before resuming higher. What we would want to see is, last month’s low holding support and this month’s price action trading inside previous month’s range or resuming higher. If we revisit May Monthly Lows, we may see increased selling pressure come in.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by EdgeClear