USDollar Is Making An Intraday Pullback Within DowntrendGood morning traders! Stocks keep pushing higher along with yields, so it looks like 10Y US Notes could still see lower support levels, and that’s why USdollar is in a bigger intraday correction. What we want to say is that while the 10Y US Notes are still searching for support, the DXY can stay in recovery mode or at least sideways. In the meantime, stocks can easily see even higher levels after NVIDIA surpassed earnings.
Looking at the intraday USDollar Index – DXY chart, we see a leading diagonal formation, so we are tracking now an intraday abc correction before a bearish continuation, thus keep an eye on GAP from May 18 around 101 level that can be filled and may act as a resistance before a bearish continuation.
DJ FXCM Index
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is risng towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.10
1st Support: 98.01
1st Resistance: 99.94
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUD/USD - Triangle Breakout (02.06.2025)The AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.6490
2nd Resistance – 0.6512
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DXY Short-Term Reversal Zone in SightUS Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a strong support zone at 98.90–98.00, which has historically acted as a base for bullish reversals. The price is now testing the lower bound of this zone after a steady downtrend from the 101.94 high.
Key Technical Structure:
Support Zone: 98.90–98.00 (tested 3+ times)
Double Bottom Potential forming if bulls hold the zone
Upside Targets:
101.94: Key horizontal resistance
103.50: Swing high from early April
Scenarios to Watch:
🔹 Bullish Rebound:
Price bounces off 98.90–98.00 support
Confirmation: Break and close above 100.50 near-term resistance
Could fuel move back to 101.94, possibly 103.50
🔹 Bearish Breakdown:
Daily close below 98.00 would invalidate bullish setup
Opens downside to 97.00 and even 95.50
Macro Drivers to Watch:
FOMC speakers and interest rate guidance
US jobless claims or inflation surprise
Risk-off sentiment (benefits USD) vs. continued global risk appetite
Conclusion:
DXY is trading at a make-or-break support zone. Watch for clear bullish reaction or bearish breakdown before committing. The setup favors a bounce unless 98.00 fails.
EURUSD Channel Up targeting 1.15000.The EURUSD pair just broke above the Resistance 1 level (1.14250) confirming the extension of the current Bullish Leg of the short-term Channel Up.
With their 4H RSI patterns very similar, the previous Bullish Leg rose by +2.58% before a pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). That gives us a potential Target of 1.15000 on the short-term.
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gold on sell retrace#XAUUSD price have been bullish since tension increases, now price is trying to correct before any further movement.
Firstly we await price to fall below 3341 to sell, Target 3331-3317. Stop loss 3357
Any further breakout above the 3366 will form a strong bullish which will reach 3390-3420
Weekly FOREX Forecast Jun 2 - 6th: Wait to BUY Majors vs USD!This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 2 - 6th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPY (CHF and JPY forecast to follow).
It's been a consolidative week, but the USD is still weak. Look for valid breakdowns of consolidations before buying against the USD.
NFP week ahead! Mon-Wed will be the best days to trade.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DXY 4H Breakout? Bulls Eye Momentum Shift!Hey There;
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to have reached a critical turning point from a technical analysis perspective. According to Elliott Wave Theory, following a five-wave downtrend, the AB corrective wave has been completed, and a bullish movement towards the C wave is emerging. This scenario could signal a transition from a bearish market to a bullish one.
Technical Outlook:
- A move towards 104.460 on the DXY may indicate that the market is entering a strong recovery phase.
- The completion of the AB corrective wave suggests that buyers are stepping in, driving upward momentum in price action.
- The C wave typically retraces a portion of the prior decline, creating potential for a higher price level.
Macroeconomic Factors:
- U.S. monetary policy and inflation data remain key determinants of the dollar index’s trajectory.
- Increased global risk appetite may bolster the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
- U.S. Treasury yields could provide additional support for DXY’s upward movement.
If DXY successfully reaches 104.460, this could confirm a shift into a bullish trend. However, the strength and sustainability of the C wave will depend on supportive volume and momentum indicators. The interplay between technical and fundamental factors could drive a solid recovery in the dollar index.
Should this scenario unfold, it may mark the beginning of a renewed period of dollar strength against global currencies. However, market dynamics and macroeconomic developments must be monitored closely to validate this outlook.
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EURUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important supports and resistances for EURUSD
for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EUR/USD - H4 - Triangle Formation (31.05.2025)The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern.
1. Wait for Breakout with Good Volume
2. Conformation in short Timeframe Must
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Fundamental Updates :
Dollar mixed on tariff uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump to battle a U.S. trade court ruling that blocked most of his proposed tariffs.
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EURUSD Bull Flag and 1week Golden Cross pushing it higher.EURUSD is on a Bull Flag pattern and just completed a 1week Golden Cross.
The structure is identical to the last 1week Golden Cross on January 11th 2021, which was also formed at the end of a Bull Flag pattern.
That formation pushed the pair higher to complete a 2.0 Fibonacci extension Top.
Buy and target 1.1800.
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Falling towards pullback support?US Dollar index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.89
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 100.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD: Bullish Megaphone unfolds its new bullish wave.EURUSD just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.015, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 31.789) as it maintains a sustainable short term uptrend through a Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D MA50 has assumed the role of the medium term Support and the 3rd bullish wave is already under way. We expect it to repeat at least the previous +2.59% wave, having a TP = 1.14950.
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US Federal Court Rules Trump Tariffs UnconstitutionalUS Federal Court Rules Trump Tariffs Unconstitutional
According to media reports, the US Court of International Trade has:
- declared the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal;
- ruled that the President exceeded his authority;
- blocked the tariffs, emphasising that under the US Constitution, only Congress has the power to impose tariffs.
The decision was made unanimously by a panel of three judges. Financial markets reacted with:
- a rise in US stock indices;
- strengthening of the US dollar — most notably seen today on the USD/CHF chart, as demand for so-called safe-haven assets declined in light of the tariff reversal.
Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart
The bullish momentum has broken upward through:
- a local downward trendline (shown in red);
- resistance at the 0.8300 level, near the May 22 high.
Additionally:
- the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart has moved upwards to the overbought territory;
- the area highlighted with a purple rectangle resembles a bullish Fair Value Gap.
Could this upward momentum lead to a sustained uptrend? There is reason for doubt.
Consider the steep decline in USD/CHF in early April (driven mainly by the introduction of Trump's tariffs) and the relatively small size of today's bullish candle compared to that prior drop.
Price action seems to suggest that market participants are skeptical about any lasting change in the situation. The Trump administration has already filed an appeal, and it’s possible the White House could succeed in defending its position.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBP/USD Breakout (28.05.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3424
2nd Support – 1.3380
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USD vying for Monthly Doji after April Support BounceMonthly charts are often underapprecaited by many retail traders. Sure, they're not very actionable as there's only 12 per year but they can do a great job of highlighting trends and broader market themes and, of interest for this scenario, possible turns.
As a case in point, back in January the US Dollar had a full head of steam, and there was nary a bear in sight. But that month showed as a doji in the USD and in February, the tariff theme started to take over. It was a mild pullback that month but collectively, after two months of bulls stalling, many were ready to pull the plug and that's what showed in March and continued through April as the January doji led into a stern sell-off and fresh multi-year lows.
In April, the USD was hit hard by a combination of tariff drama and trend continuation and a major spot of support eventually came into play around Easter Monday, taken from a trendline projection as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2022 major move.
The bounce wasn't automatic, as there was a slow grind of higher-highs and higher-lows that got another boost around the FOMC rate decision earlier in May. That rally ran all the way until a major spot of resistance came into play at 102, at which sellers reacted.
But at this point they've been stalled at another major spot on the chart of 98.98, which is helping to set a higher-low. And from the monthly chart, the USD is currently showing a doji on the monthly bar for May, which sets the table for a possible turn as we trade into the summer months.
Key for this coming to fruition will be continued recovery in USD/JPY, which has had a major impact in the USD of late. And if we do see that theme of USD-strength continue, I still favor EUR/USD as a major pair of interest for that theme. - js
USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus
📌 MARKET OVERVIEW
USDCHF is currently consolidating within a tight range after a technical rebound from the 0.8226 support zone. The price is testing a confluence area at the descending trendline and the 200 EMA on the H2 chart, indicating indecision between bulls and bears as we head into the high-impact FOMC event.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H2 CHART
Overall Trend: Sideways corrective move within a broader downtrend channel. Price is approaching critical resistance at the EMA200 and the channel’s upper boundary.
EMAs in focus: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red).
Fibonacci Retracement: Price is hovering around the 0.5 fib zone (0.8298), a neutral level for potential reaction.
🎯 Key Levels & Trade Scenarios:
Major Resistance Zone: 0.8330 – 0.8368 → aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and previous structural high.
Key Support Zone: 0.8226 → strong demand area. A break below this could expose deeper downside or set up a false break trap.
📌 Most Likely Path:
Price could dip back to 0.8226 before launching a bullish recovery targeting 0.8330 – 0.8368.
A clean breakout above 0.8368 with momentum and volume could invalidate the bearish bias and shift the trend mid-term.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
FOMC IN FOCUS: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting. However, market attention will be on Powell’s tone. A hawkish stance could fuel further USD strength, propelling USDCHF toward resistance zones.
SNB (Swiss National Bank) maintains a neutral tone with slight disinflationary concerns, offering limited support for the CHF and strengthening the USDCHF upside case.
US Treasury Yields are showing signs of recovery, adding bullish pressure to USD pairs.
📌 TRADING STRATEGY:
Watch for bullish reaction at 0.8226 – potential long setup if RSI divergence appears.
Short-term targets: 0.8330 → 0.8368.
Breakout Strategy: If price clears 0.8368 with conviction, shift bias to bullish continuation and monitor for FVG or trendline breakout alignment.
📣 Stay sharp for increased volatility around FOMC. Position sizing and discipline are key in macro-heavy weeks like this.
Higher levels for EUR/USD?There is no denying that Europe’s shared currency (EUR) is having a strong year against the US dollar (USD) so far, with the EUR/USD pair rising by almost 10%.
Monthly support in play
In one fell swoop, April’s price action made short work of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at US$1.0904 and the monthly resistance at US$1.1134. This prompted the unit to challenge monthly resistance at US$1.1457 and subsequently retest US$1.1134 as support.
Arguably, if bulls maintain their position north of the mentioned support and eventually absorb the offers at the current resistance, this could reveal a strong bullish scenario for the pair, targeting resistance between US$1.2028 and US$1.1930.
Daily AB=CD resistance unlikely to draw much selling
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, buyers and sellers are squaring off around an ‘alternate’ AB=CD resistance level from US$1.1386 (a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio) – a level complemented by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio from US$1.1383.
Based on monthly flow rebounding from support at US$1.1134, I do not expect the EUR/USD to venture much beyond US$1.1283 on the daily chart: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio derived from legs A-D (US$1.1065-US$1.1419).
Short-term dip below US$1.13?
Short-term price action on the H1 chart shows the pair rebounded from the US$1.13 handle in recent trading, though overhead resistance between US$1.1358 and US$1.1340 is calling for attention. Additional support to be aware of below US$1.13 resides in the form of a trendline support, extended from the low of US$1.1091, together with support from US$1.1266.
Ultimately, I expect H1 price to respect current resistance and drive through US$1.13 bids towards H1 trendline support mentioned above. Knowing said H1 support aligns with the daily timeframe’s 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio, tapping into liquidity south of US$1.13 will likely help drive bigger players to buy.
HOT PICK ALERT - HUGE RR ! USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W22 D28 Y25👀 USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W22 D28 Y25
🔥HOT PICK ALERT - HUGE RR ! 🔥
WHAT IF THE 4h 50EMA HOLD NORTH - BULL RUN MOON LONG !
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside intraday confirmation & breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 🔥
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) - Consolidation Above Support Trendline -DailyBitcoin (BTCUSDT) price is currently consolidating above a trendline support level (between $107,000 and $109,000).
Bitcoin price has been in an uptrend throughout May 2025.
If Bitcoin price closes below $106,000 a pullback could occur down to $104,000 and $100,000.
Support Levels: $107K, $105K, $103K, $100K, $95K, $90K.
Resistance Levels: $110K, $112K, $120K, $130, $136K, $150.
Stock market correlations and corporate earnings could affect short-term price action for Bitcoin (e.g. S&P500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Dell, Marvell, etc).
Breaking News, corporate earnings and announcements, presidential and government law changes, and consumer sentiment can all affect the price of Bitcoin.