TENSION BETWEEN TWO NUCLEAR-ARMED COUNTRIES- ADDING A TRADEThe market is closely watching the building tension between two nuclear-armed countries India and Pakistan
As we are preparing this report gold is trading at $1325 while white metal is hovering around $15.800.We have seen the yellow metal to drop below $1318 due to the strong DXY movement which we have witnessed today. This week we have also seen the U.S equity market to reach their three-month highs along with the rising crude oil prices which are trading above $57.00 a barrel.
Europian traders are still worried due to the ongoing Brexit dispute however now it seems U.K prime minister Theresa may and parliament have finally agreed to extend the Brexit deadline only if the deal will not be settle on the fixed deadline, The other market news which is not favoring gold bulls is that the German government today auctioned its 10-year bonds for an average yield of just 0.12% which is the lowest in 3 years which is a sign of low inflation expectations in the world.
The market is closely watching the building India-Pakistan tensions but the impact on the market is almost negligible due to the conflict between the two nuclear-armed countries. The India-Pak war escalated when India bombed a terrorist camp called jaish-e-Mohammed in Pakistan with Pakistan then retaliating by shooting down two Indian warplanes where one Indian pilot has been taken on in a custody by Pak army, In a counter attack India also shot down Pakistan air force most advanced warplane F16 however this all started after Pulwama attack when a militant who was a member of terrorist camp in Pakistan bombed Indian paramilitary police with a suicide car which killed 41 members of CRPF in a horrible manner.U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May also called for de-escalation, stating that “U.K. is deeply concerned about rising tensions between India and Pakistan and urgently calls for restraint on both sides to avoid further escalation.we believe the building tension between two countries does not seem to escalate however if If India and Pakistan’s relationship continues to deteriorate and there is a risk of war, markets will speak up
We are going long in gold but that doesn't mean our medium-term outlook has been changed that just means the very short-term outlook for gold improved based on yesterday’s second close above 2019 high and today’s pre-market upswing, but this didn’t change the medium-term outlook at all instead when prices will move higher as we are hoping for more naive investors to join in this parabolic run we will simply close our long position which will help us to make immense profit in our upcoming short position due to enormous reward and little risk
Currency Pair: XAUUSD ( Gold )
Buy Stop Entry Price:1325
Take Profit: 1365
Stop Loss:1290(we will reduce the stop loss points once positions will be more favorable)
Risk/Reward: 1:1
(we can adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached
Usdx
TAKING HUGE PROFITS OUT WITH SILVER AND REOPENING THE GOLD TRADEUPDATE-We have took the entire profit out of the table from our silver trade at $15.700 which is mentioned below and making profit of about 1500 USD,However our risk free trade gold has been closed Automatically with no profit and no loss-we are reopening the gold trade
Currency Pair: XAGUSD ( SILVER )-(This trade has been closed)
Sell Stop Entry Price:16.00
Take Profit: 14.00
Stop Loss:16.100(moved stop loss)
Capital Risk:500 USD
Potential Reward: 12000USD
Risk/Reward: 1:6
OUR EXISTING POSITION
Currency Pair: XAUUSD ( Gold )
Sell Stop Entry Price:1320
Take Profit: 1160
Stop Loss:1320(we will reduce the stop loss points once positions will be more favorable)
Capital Risk:2000USD(amount may vary depending on your account size and risk tolerance)
Potential Reward: 18000USD
Risk/Reward: 1:9
(we can adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached)
USDCAD BUY Head & Shoulder FormedThe daily Head and Shoulder has been completed, I trust this will respect the pattern and go bullish
Inverted head and shoulder pattern is a reversal signal!
In this analysis I tried to make SL very tight though it shouldn't be following the rules of H&S
But lets pray it didn't get to strike our SL quickly.
Goodluck!
Dollar index is on the verge of a breakoutGold and silver are trading range bound from quite some days however we have seen a slight bounce in the yellow metal today and the primary reason for that is the sell-off in the greenback which we have witnessed today. Yesterday we informed you about the possibility of the government shutdown this Friday but now It appears that the government shutdown will be avoided this Friday, However, the main focus of the market continues to be on the U.S-China trade war negotiation talk which will be held in Beijing. The precious metal sector is showing a little bit of weakness due to the recent rally we have witnessed in the greenback. The technical picture of USDX is very bullish and it seems greenback is on the verge of a breakout which will ultimately prove to be a bearish case for the yellow and the white metal(In our next analysis we will discuss the reasons That why we believe the USDX is on the verge of a breakout-EURO Weakness is definitely one of them)
OUR EXISTING POSITIONS
Currency Pair: XAGUSD ( SILVER )
Sell Stop Entry Price:16.00
Take Profit: 14.00
Stop Loss:16.100(moved stop loss)
Capital Risk:500 USD
Potential Reward: 12000USD
Risk/Reward: 1:6
Currency Pair: XAUUSD ( Gold )
Sell Stop Entry Price:1320
Take Profit: 1160
Stop Loss:1320(we will reduce the stop loss points once positions will be more favorable)
Capital Risk:0USD(amount may vary depending on your account size and risk tolerance)
Potential Reward: 18000USD
Risk/Reward: 1:9
(we can adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached)
Trading Gold? Don't Neglect the USD Index.Gold has tried to break above the $1,300 handle several times in the last few days. Ultimately, gold bulls have failed to break above that level, and the price retraced to $1,276 early this week. If you're trading gold, always pay close attention to the US dollar index. Notice today's Spinning Top pattern on the USD index, combined with the horizontal resistance. On the Gold chart, notice the trendline support and the newly-formed rectangle consolidation pattern. A falling US dollar causes the price of gold to rise, and vice-versa.
Just like the US dollar, gold tends to appreciate in times of political uncertainty and economic slowdown. Those assets are called safe-havens, and also include the Japanese yen and Swiss franc from the group of major currencies. However, the dynamics behind the demand for the US dollar and gold in times of a risk-off market environment are quite different, which can lead to an actual inverse relationship between those two assets.
While the US dollar usually appreciates as a store of value when the stock and bond market doesn’t generate adequate returns for investors, leading to a conversion of their stock and bond investments back into the US dollar and pushing its demand, gold exhibits a different pattern. The yellow metal serves as a safe place of last instance until investors are ready to take on riskier investments again.
This pattern of collective market psychology can be identified during the economic slowdown from 2008 to 2011. The US dollar Index – which reflects the value of the US dollar against a basket of other major currencies – rose sharply over the course of 2008 while the S&P 500 Index lost almost half of its value during the same period of time. Stock investors were selling their stock portfolio in exchange for US dollars, which in turn pushed the currency higher.
Interestingly, gold lost almost 30% of its value during 2008, only to skyrocket from 2009 to 2011 to an all-time record high of $1,895 in September 2011. Worries over the US debt and the European Greek-crisis saw hordes of investors selling the US dollar and euro and fleeing to the safe-haven of gold. Consequently, the US dollar Index reached a three-year record-low in 2011.
With the majority of gold still traded in US dollars, it’s no wonder that the exchange rates between US dollars and other currencies have a great impact on the price of gold, creating an inverse relationship between them.
Most of the time, all commodities that are denominated in US dollars (including oil, silver, copper etc.) move in the opposite direction than the US currency. The reason behind this is rather simple. Beside the market dynamics of an economic slowdown mentioned above, a stronger US dollar leads to weaker currencies in the rest of the world, decreasing the demand for gold and its price in dollar terms. Similarly, a weakening dollar leads to relatively stronger foreign currencies, which pushes the demand for gold and increases its price in dollar terms. A stronger US dollar lowers the price of gold on foreign markets, and vice-versa.
Another reason for the inverse correlation between the US dollar and gold is closely related to gold’s role as a safe-haven of last instance. Basically, in times of a weakening dollar, investors are leaving dollar-denominated securities and the dollar itself, and start buying gold as an alternative investment to store value and preserve the purchasing power of their investments. As the supply of gold is naturally limited, the increased demand can lead to large price fluctuations to the upside.