Volatility-based-plan — Trading Ideas on TradingView

BITx - Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good Morning -- Happy Father's day to any dad's out there! Let's took a weekly look at CBOE:BITX -- our 2x leveraged BITSTAMP:BTCUSD fund. Last week, we saw a beautiful gap up to the upper HV63 implied ranges were profit was taken and accelerated selling begin. Our bi-weekly trending values have increased due to the increasing volatility. The weekly candle ended with some body to it, but was mostly flat due to the gap closing with a big wick up. Our IV (85.47%) entering the week is trending within 4% of the sliding yearly lows and seemingly increasing as it tracks near-term trending markets -- HV10 (70.04%) has increased from the movement last week +7.35% and is now +22.17% off sliding yearly lows. As the spring is uncoiling, and bi-weekly regresses towards quarterly means our premium capture erodes and our range expands. I love trading volatility and ranges. The 'strength of IV' here for HV10 is 82% -- so you have to account when positioning that the trending near-term volatility IS INCREASING but IS WEAKER than what is predicted. The 'strength of IV' here for HV63 is 101% -- showing that what is predicted is fairly valued to me on a regression scale. Please -- Pull my chart onto your layout and use my implied ranges and data, follow along through the week on your own screen as we track and measure the volatility -- let's get this conversation started! CHEERS

Nvidia - Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good Afternoon! Let's talk NASDAQ:NVDA Last week we saw HV10 (24.96%) increase above HV21 (23.67%) after starting what could be a regression towards HV63 (39.13%). IV (37.37%) entering this week reflects within 6% of it's sliding yearly lows and resonating around quarterly means. This could be showing a fair prediction to the regression potential and a volatility spike. Here, the RSI has room but is elevated and hinged down with the MACD crossed red -- lagging indicators showing trend reversal. If bi-weekly values can find regression to quarterly; the implied range I would be watching is $135.47 - $148.47 with IV increasing affecting premium positively. If the grind up continues slowly, expect IV to melt and be watching for contracting HV10 ranges between $137.82 - $146.12 -- Keep an eye on the news, it will ever affect the broader markets and any underlying within. Follow along through the week as we track our volatility prediction -- I will pull the charts back in at the end of the week to review! CHEERS!

Weekly Volatility Snapshot Volatility, as measured by standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and provides a level of probability and precision to trade within, that humbles us all. Last week, the TVC:VIX opened above $21.00 and closed just under $19.00 for a near flat week even for all the eventful action that took place. That being once again, tariff related news with the court of international trade overriding Trump's liberation day, only to have the administration appeal, and the tariffs to be reinstated the following day. This provided for quite a volatile move, mostly in after hours with everything closing strong to end the month. As we look towards June starting with next week, just about all indices I track and the magnificent seven are showing near term trending volatility contracting under stated IV, as IV is melting across the board. Notable mention to NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:IBIT and CBOE:BITX for all entering the week with great IV value, now let's compare them to their respective trending bi-weekly values to observe what is being predicted to what is happening with near term trending volatility. NASDAQ:NVDA at a 6% IVp enters the week with an IV of 39.04% -- HV10 (31.70%) is 81% strength of current IV and resonating under monthly values. When you see a large move, that being from the earnings report last week, you will see a massive IV melt to save premium against the PA move due to the beats or misses. With that said, bi-weekly values are just off yearly lows (25.74%) as IV chases it down and i see the underlying as 94.03% coiled for a volatility swing. NASDAQ:MSFT at a 17% IVp enters the week with an IV of 18.99% -- HV10 (14.55%) is 77% strength of current IV and resonating deeply under monthly values. Bi-weekly yearly lows of 8.56% reflect a coiling of 90.03% at current values. With both of these, I am looking for a volatility bounce, and regression back to quarterly means. That's where the real fun is and if played right provide excellent opportunity. For further discussion around BITSTAMP:BTCUSD within the funds NASDAQ:IBIT and CBOE:BITX look for my more dedicated posts this weekend. For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey. We will weekly analyze our ranges under the year-to-date VIX chart and engage in discussions as people please. So hop on board and come along for the ride!

iBIT - Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good afternoon -- Here is my weekly perspective for NASDAQ:IBIT IV (43.42%) entering the week sits in the 6th percentile for the year. HV10 (28.24%) has been lowering towards it's yearly lows of 23.43% showing a coiling of bi-weekly values at 95.19% from this -- and a divergence from IV of -15.81% . IV is chasing the sinking bi-weekly volatility trends. We generally could see a volatility bounce within this range or continue to grind to new volatility lows. I always expect and prepare for both, Lewis Pastor once said, "in a scientific setting, chance favors the prepared mind". I hold that true in a lot of situational settings not just scientific, but find it to be very true with BITSTAMP:BTCUSD volatility and risk management. Moving deeper into the week; what can we expect? Well, I think that the final shakeout may be here as we consolidate more into the beginning of the week finalizing on Tuesday, June 3rd. I find significance on this date being the extension in time from selling off for 45 days after the initial 'W' distribution off the top -- potentially the start of the volatility swing back towards long-term trending means and maybe the start of another impulse run to track into..stay tuned to find out in observation. If this week we find regression to HV63 (49.26%), it will be a swift and quick move showing lots of strength. The ability to capture premium between the difference of stated IV from lowering HV10 values to the volatility swing back up above IV to quarterly means, is what it is all about ! This capture can be upwards 5.84% as a volatility metric read and beyond, because when a volatility regression occurs, it moves past means until having to consolidate back downwards again. Rinse and repeat. For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.

BITx - Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good afternoon -- Here is my weekly perspective for CBOE:BITX IV (86.99%) entering the week sits in the 3rd percentile for the year. HV10 (60.22%) has been lowering towards it's yearly lows of 47.87% showing a coiling of bi-weekly values at 87.65% from this -- and a divergence from IV of -26.77% . IV is chasing the sinking bi-weekly volatility trends. We generally could see a volatility bounce within this range or continue to grind to new volatility lows. I always expect and prepare for both, Lewis Pastor once said, "in a scientific setting, chance favors the prepared mind". I hold that true in a lot of situational settings not just scientific, but find it to be very true with BITSTAMP:BTCUSD volatility and risk management. Moving deeper into the week; what can we expect? Well, I think that the final shakeout may be here as we consolidate more into the beginning of the week finalizing on Tuesday, June 3rd. I find significance on this date being the extension in time from selling off for 45 days after the initial 'W' distribution off the top -- potentially the start of the volatility swing back towards long-term trending means and maybe the start of another impulse run to track into..stay tuned to find out in observation. If this week we find regression to HV63 (99.73%), it will be a swift and quick move showing lots of strength. The ability to capture premium between the difference of stated IV from lowering HV10 values to the volatility swing back up above IV to quarterly means, is what it is all about! This capture can be upwards 12.74% as a volatility metric read and beyond, because when a volatility regression occurs, it moves past means until having to consolidate back downwards again. Rinse and repeat. For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.

S&P 500 Index -- Weekly Volatility Potential Good Afternoon! This week, I want to talk about the CBOE:SPX and its weekly potential for how I read historical volatility to weight it then to implied volatility -- this creates my custom trading ranges. Implied ranges for this week are calculated at 4 DTE using my strength of IV method. You can find out more how I do this over at my highlights page on 'X' - Find me @askHVtobidIV We are entering a short week, with IV currently in the 89th percentile for the year ( 18.31% ) and resonating between bi-weekly ( 19.36% ) and monthly ( 15.13% ) historical values. Quarterly volatility trends ( 31.79% ) have risen more than 10% this year alone due to macro concerns and increased news from tariff uncertainties. This is creating a volatile environment that, in turn, only increases our trading ranges. Something I personally like. Near-term trends are above the currently high IV environment, suggesting further expansion. This provides premium value on what is happening to what is projected to happen and a “strength of IV” of >100% indicating rising volatility, slowly towards quarterly means, while resonating around monthly trends. If price action drives downwards, our gap from May 16th could fill around $5,692.56 with confluence of HV21 trends at $5,710.91. Conversely, I can see HV10 ranges with rising pricing action and good macro news with EU tariffs breaking $5,971.33—Expanding to the price of $5,995.95 with continuing expansion and regression towards means. Come back next weekend as I will review the chart to see how we developed! For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.