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$VIX Has Reached Another FCP Zone - W Pattern Complete #VIXTraders and Investors, The VIX picked up a lot of strength and violated the bearish flag that was earlier forming. Now it has just completed a W pattern which means that it can take a bit of correction. An extended version of this W pattern places the price in the next FCP zone as well. So although there are chances of it falling down, a little more strength can also push it higher. So watch this carefully along with indices. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
PEPPERSTONE:VIXShort
by vikinsa
VIX - Volatility is skyrocketingIn early August 2022, we warned that volatility would creep back into the market. Not long enough after that, the market started to sell off, and VIX skyrocketed from 20 USD to over 27 USD. Therefore, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD for VIX. However, we want to set a new medium-term price target at 35 USD. Illustration 1.01 The chart shows a bullish breakout above the resistance and two opening gaps on VIX. All of these developments are immensely bullish for VIX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
26
VIX - LongWe continue to be bearish on the general stock market and, therefore, bullish on the VIX. Accordingly, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD and a medium-term price target of 35 USD. We will pay close attention to the FED meeting on Wednesday as we expect the volatility index to rise further after the meeting. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
19
AAPL: Weekly Bullish 5-0 on Apple Inc.Apple after reversing at the PCZ of a Bullish SHark May look to Bullishly Underperform in Bearish price Action and Reverse at the 50-61.8% Retrace if it does reverse wwithin this zone then i would expect it to make atleast an Equal High to the Last High and even may expect to see it hit a 1.618 Extension from the Previous High to Low which if the low lands anywhere between the 50 and 61.8% retrace we should see the 1.618 extension land at around $195-$200
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by RizeSenpai
So Long and Thanks for all the FishI wasn’t able to do much charting and analysis this week. I'm taking a step back from charting the next few weeks as I finish a project. I wanted to get this last chart out that I have been working on for historical look at the vix. Why is the VIX so important? I would argue that the VIX is the most important indicator in a speculators arsenal. The vix is important because after a volatility event the vix will do what it does. Revert to Mean. To see this phenomenon in action all you have to do is a regression trend of VIX from ~2003 to pre-march 2020 to find the mean for VIX is 15.39 Next add another regression trend line sine the Covid 19 Spike and you will see that it took Oct 25 for the VIX event mean return to historical mean. So a speculator like me can conclude that the Crash of 2020 has completed its mean reversion. What was the cost you ask? To determine that, just extend the regression trend to now to find the current mean and WHAT THE HELL! A trend line formed from the completion of the mean reversion for covid to today and we see that the VIX Mean overall has now risin to 19.70. This is huge as a speculator because it gives us a variable to use in our analysis and some assumptions we can make to predicting a trend after an event. 1. When a crisis occurs, the government will step in to correct it with QE in some form. 2. After a large volatility event or even a bear market selloff, we can estimate an amount and time to reversion. Everyone has questioned why the Fed kept the peddle to the QE meddle. Well now you know why, to give the markets time to revert to mean. The bigger the spike, the more QE and/or time it will take to revert to mean. OK Then. Can the VIX predict a crash? I think it can and already is pointing to a near term event. If you compare the 08 GFC you will see 1 important trend of VIX since Jan 07 is a steady increase in volatility until the market eventually crashed. Unlike the March 2020 event which was spontaneous pop in VIX. Now you see, since mean reversion completed in Oct 25th, a steady increase in overall market volatility has taken hold. While the market still mean reverts after a bear leg selloff, that overall mean continues to rise. So How long before it pops? While 07-08 rise in volatility prior to its crash gives us some indication an event is imminent, it won’t be the same. I suspect it will be sooner and larger than anyone expects. If you look at 07-08s incline, It indicates we are knocking at the doorstep. It’s why I think VXX stopped issuing in March. It’s why we get such crazy market rallies in the middle of a “recession” and inverted yields. Everyone knows there is something wrong, the FED is waving their arms in the air like they just don't care. OK smart ass, then why won’t the markets crash. It’s because capital markets of today are much more reflexive than they were in the past. Since 2018, options began increasing in volume and popularity. Now, the dealers that sell those options, aka house the risk (or lack of risk) need to dynamically hedge their delta. When 1 dealer is offside from dealer 2, you can expect they will continuously hedge back and forth until…. They reach mean. This isn’t an overnight process and takes about 21 days in my estimation and is the VANNA and CHARM effects so prevalent in the markets over the past 2 years. It’s why there were such predicable dips every 19th during 2021. It’s why we got a huge bear rally this summer. (Volatility Compression). It’s why every golden cross has a death cross. It’s why moving averages provide hints to direction. OK, OK. This makes sense. But Why? Massive amounts of Delta hedging. I broke down one of the largest hedges wrapped around todays market equities and mapped out the strategies Delta graph. Delta is simple to understand and once you can visualize negative and positive delta you can extrapolate the zones of volatility. Once you map those zones to changes in volatility you have a good base to start marking assumptions. VIX Log Returns moving average. In the bottom panel I created a log return moving average that can give you a magnitude of movements. Ranked from 0-10 in increased volatility you can see that covid 19 moved the volatility scale the most in history with a 9.0 in the VIXTER SCALE. This scale can also move negative to -5 For each spike high there is always an equal push negative to bring volatility back to mean. With all this knowledge we can form a picture in our mind of a trampoline. The tension (or reflexivity) in the trampoline are the dealers pulling liquidity to their side. This includes all the hedge funds, market makers, bulls, bears, prop traders, theta gang, tsla gang, retail, institutions, etc are all pulling the trampoline tighter to their side. Each economical decision or crisis is going to launch VIX that much higher. That is until the trampoline breaks under the pressure. The FED saved banks and corporations after Covid with Stimulus, not the checks you got in the mail (those take time to trickle down to corporations), but the debt they were buying and adding to their balance sheet. That is a massive 9 Trillion dollars. That gave our trampoline the added support it needed to recover. What happens now when the FED puts that 9 Trillion in assets back into the market. The tension grows until the next crisis or event launches it to 10. Then it's... So long and thanks for all the Fish.
TVC:VIXLong
by SPYvsGME
7
$VIX Is In The Zone, Can Take A CorrectionTraders, $VIX Is In The Zone, Can Take A Correction. Watch $DXY too with it. If these 2 fall, we are looking at some relief in indices (Dow Jones, SnP500 and NASDAQ) Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
PEPPERSTONE:VIXShort
by vikinsa
7
VIX Spike in Progress - 8/15/2022Spot VIX. Daily view. The VIX is beginning to behave like it did in 2020-2021. A bullish RSI divergence is beginning to form. The RSI is trending slightly higher while the VIX is trending down. Usually, this is the first step to a VIX spike to form. That doesn't mean a large VIX spike might happen tomorrow. Usually, this pattern takes several days to resolve. I say first step because the VIX has a certain "dance" to it. The next step is for the VIX to create higher lows. Usually, 3-5 higher lows would create the bigger spike. The reason why the VIX floated for most of 2022 is due to the market that it reflects. The VIX calculates the amount of hedges in the options market of SPX/ES or equivalent. Simply put, when cash is in demand or futures are used as hedges, that means hedges in options are not being bought up. When there are less options bought as hedges, this mutes the VIX spike. This type of floating action happened in most of 2008, 2015, and 2018. So, it's actually nothing new. However, as the DX (dollar strength) goes down, it means that there is less demand for cash... which means more money is flowing into derivatives. The red line that I have served me well for VIX shorts. However, I have this red line expiring around September/October which is just in time. What I am looking for is an oversized VIX spike. What do I mean by that? I mean if the VIX spikes more than 3 standard deviations, but the SPX/ES didn't drop as much (e.g. only 7%). Why is that? It will likely mean the bear market in ES/SPX would be over. It means cash is not in hot demand as it was between January to July. Cash doesn't disappear out of thin air. It goes somewhere else. If I am reading this pattern right, then we should see a spike in September. There is a possibility of near the end of August. However, it's still too early to tell. I rather be patient and let the market tell me what to do. Those who keep telling the market what to do usually do not last very long.
TVC:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
3
When is VIX a buy? Is this a good time to buy?The truth is that it is a buy whenever the VIX gets close to 20. Since November, and especially since the war in Ukraine broke out, I've said that the VIX below 20 is a steal. The VIX has just had a mini jump because of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, but if nothing happens between the US and China, it could fall lower. Personally believe that stocks have another 7% higher to go, which could crush VIX below 20 for a while. However, I think this would be a bear trap and a great opportunity for bulls to go through long volatility. In the short term, stocks could correct a bit more before going higher, which could cause the index to go up a bit, though I don't think a big breakout or anything like it is coming. My long-term goal (6-12 months) remains 45-50 on the index, but it needs some time to get there, and it must inflict even more pain on all those who have been holding puts over the last year.
TVC:VIX
by BitcoinMacro
Time To Buy Some New Shorts. VIX To Bounce Upward.VIX trading in a bullish pennant pattern. We have seen two really nice bullish bounces off the support trend line in this pennant pattern. I expect this next support line touch to be nothing different (assuming VIX touches support). VIX targets: 25.41 resistance first, then follow-through to 28.93, eventually reaching the top of the upper bound of the pennant pattern around the 33 area. With that in mind, I am beginning to load up on short positions and closing out some of my higher beta long positions. This is not trading advice. Good Luck!
TVC:VIXLong
by Gooby_Trades
4