Carnival Corporation (2 hours chart, NYSE) - Long PositionCCL - Carnival Corporation (2 hours chart, NYSE) - Long Position; Short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: High {volume & support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.33
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 18.53
Entry limit ~ 18.30 to 18.10 (Avg. -18.20) on April 24, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 19.20 (+5.49%; +1 point)
2. Target limit ~ 19.60 (+7.69%; +1.4 points)
Stop order limit ~ 17.6 (-3.3%; -0.6 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
Volume
AUDUSD - Daily chart, OANDA) - Long; Mid-term research idea.AUDUSD - Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar (Daily chart, OANDA) - Long Position; Mid-term research idea.
Risk assessment: High {volume & support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.5
Entry limit ~ 0.63800 on April 30, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 0.67800 (+6.27%; +0.04000 points)
2. Target limit ~ 0.65715 (+3%; +0.01915 points)
Stop order limit ~ 0.62200 (-2.51%; -0.01600 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
META Q1 EARNINGSMeta reports earnings today. The stock is positioned between two possible EPS outcomes. If the company reports strong results and achieves an EPS of $5, it could break through the intermediate resistance level. If the results are not favorable, the stock may retest the double bottom.
MSFT Q1 EARNINGSMicrosoft Earnings Presentation. We have a strong resistance area that we need to break. If we break through that area, we would move toward the second resistance zone, with strong support at 355.
If MSFT report strong earnings, the stock could move toward the $420 area, where it reached during the last earnings release.
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H Timeframe
Here’s the detailed breakdown of the Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) 1H Chart based on Volume Profile, Gann analysis, and custom indicators (CVD + ADX):
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
• Value Area High (VAH): 3325.00
• Value Area Low (VAL): 3302.00
• Point of Control (POC): 3314.58
• High-volume nodes: Notable clustering around 3310–3325 zone, suggesting accumulation.
• Low-volume gaps: 3340–3360 zone shows thin profile—potential breakout area if breached.
b) Liquidity Zones:
• Liquidity Clusters:
o Upside: Prior highs near 3360 and 3380 may have stop orders.
o Downside: 3280–3290 (recent swing lows) likely holding short-term stops.
• Absorption Zones: Strong absorption observed just below POC (3305–3310), indicating defense by buyers.
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
• Swing High (Volume Spike): 3360 on April 26 – high rejection with strong sell volume.
• Swing Low (Volume Spike): 3285 on April 25 – major buying tail, reversal support zone.
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
• Trend Direction: Currently range-bound; no clean directional move post 28th April.
• ADX Strength:
o ADX < 20: Weak trend environment
o DI+ ≈ DI-: Confirms lack of clear directional bias
• CVD Confirmation:
o Neutral to slightly rising CVD, indicating moderate demand but not dominant
o No divergence between price and CVD—suggests indecision
________________________________________
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
• Support:
o VAL: 3302.00
o POC: 3314.58
o Swing low: 3285.00 (with high delta absorption)
• Resistance:
o VAH: 3325.00
o Swing highs: 3360.00 and 3380.00
b) Gann-Based Levels:
• Gann Swing High: 3360 (April 26)
• Gann Swing Low: 3285 (April 25)
• Key Retracements:
o 1/2: 3322.5
o 1/3: 3310
o 2/3: 3340
________________________________________
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Range-bound (confirmed by flat ADX and neutral CVD)
b) Notable Patterns:
• Descending triangle forming between 3325 (horizontal resistance) and lower highs
• Potential breakout scenario if price clears 3325 with volume
• Retests of POC at 3314 providing short-term scalping setups
________________________________________
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
• Entry Zone: 3310–3315
• Targets:
o T1: 3340
o T2: 3360
• Stop-Loss (SL): 3295 (below VAL)
• RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
• Entry Zone: 3325–3330
• Target:
o T1: 3285
• Stop-Loss (SL): 3345 (above recent swing high)
• RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade
APOLLOTYRE - Apollo Tyres Ltd (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long PositiAPOLLOTYRE - Apollo Tyres Ltd. (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {volume structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.68
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 470
Entry limit ~ 464.50 on April 30, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 481 (+3.55%; +16.5 points)
2. Target limit ~ 498 (+7.21%; +33.5 points)
Stop order limit ~ 452 (-2.69%; -12.5 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
1. SMC-Based Chart Reading Timeframe: 4H Price Action Summary:
•Strong bullish impulse previously, followed by a clear correction phase.
•Price is bouncing between clean demand and supply OBs.
•Market is now reacting from a demand block, filling in an Imbalance/FVG (Fair Value Gap).
•Multiple liquidity pools marked via sessions and time-based highs (2:30am & 6:30am).
⸻
2. Marked Points in Chart
•Last Day High: 3,353.297 — a key liquidity magnet (untouched).
•50% Day Range: ~3,305 – the market recently broke above it, showing strength.
•Last Day Low: ~3,280 – respected multiple times (demand zone).
• 2:30 am & 6:30 am Highs: Session-based liquidity targets.
•Imbalance (FVG): Being filled — buyers reacting to unmitigated value.
•Return Line: Classic SMC technique for retracement target (OB re-entry).
⸻
3. Swing Low & High (Day/4H)
•Swing High (4H): ~3,360 – 3,400 (upper supply zone)
•Swing Low (4H): 3,268 – 3,280 (demand zone at the base)
•Current Internal High: 3,343
•Current Internal Low: 3,280
Price is currently attempting to form higher low structure = Possible bullish continuation if it holds above 3,308.
⸻
4. Trade Direction
Bias: Bullish Intraday / Reversal Pending Swing
•Price is breaking above 50% range and holding above the FVG/demand block.
•Next liquidity targets are session highs (3,343) and then last day high (3,353).
•If price holds above 3,305 and breaks 3,343, this confirms bullish continuation.
⸻
5. Best Risk-Reward Ratio Setup
Buy Setup (Best Trade Idea)
• Entry Zone: 3,308 – 3,315 (retest of demand + FVG)
• SL: Below 3,300 or safer at 3,295
• TP1: 3,343 (session high)
• TP2: 3,353 (liquidity at last day high)
• TP3: 3,360 – 3,380 (supply OB)
Entry SL TP1 TP2 TP3 RRR
3,310 3,295 3,343 3,353 3,380 1:2.2 / 1:2.8 / 1:4.6
Key Note:
• If you’re conservative: secure partial profits at TP1.
• Let partial ride to TP2/TP3 for maximum RRR.
⸻
6. CRT Model Evaluation
CRT Flow:
CRT Element Present? Notes
Change of Character (ChoCh) Yes, from bearish to bullish at 3,280 OB zone
Reversal Yes Price formed a higher low, left FVG, and reclaimed 50% day range
Trend Continuation Building Needs clean break of 3,343 to target 3,353–3,360
=> The CRT Model confirms a pending bullish continuation if the price holds current levels and the session is reclaimed high.
⸻
Final Trade Summary
Parameter Value
Trend Bias Bullish
Swing High (4H) 3,360–3,400
Swing Low (4H) 3,268–3,280
Entry Zone 3,310 (FVG retest)
SL Below 3,295
TP1 / TP2 / TP3 3,343 / 3,353 / 3,380
CRT Phase Reversal to Trend Continuation
RRR Potential 1:2.2 to 1:4.5
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeHere’s the detailed breakdown of the Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) 1H Chart based on Volume Profile, Gann analysis, and custom indicators (CVD + ADX):
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
• Value Area High (VAH): 3,343.00
• Value Area Low (VAL): 3,278.50
• Point of Control (POC):
o Current session: 3,293.34
o Previous session: 3,329.53
• High-volume nodes:
o Around 3,293-3,300 (recent acceptance area)
• Low-volume gaps:
o Between 3,315 - 3,330 (thin volume, price may move quickly through)
b) Liquidity Zones:
• Stops likely above recent swing high: 3,343 (VAH area).
• Stops likely below recent swing low: 3,278 (VAL area).
• Absorption (high delta volume) noted near 3,290-3,300 (potential strong demand zone).
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
• Swing high at 3,343 with notable rejection and high-volume rejection candle.
• Swing low at 3,278.5 where volume spiked and buying pressure emerged.
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
• Trend Direction: Currently slight bullish bias (CVD showing positive divergence).
• ADX Strength:
o ADX < 20 (currently weak trend, range-bound behavior likely).
• CVD Confirmation:
o Recent rising CVD with bullish price action = demand emerging.
________________________________________
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
• Support:
o VAL: 3,278.50
o POC: 3,293.34
• Resistance:
o VAH: 3,343.00
o Previous swing high: 3,343
b) Gann-Based Levels:
• Confirmed Gann swing low: 3,278
• Confirmed Gann swing high: 3,343
• Key retracement levels:
o 1/2 Retracement: ~3,310.5
o 1/3 Retracement: ~3,300
o 2/3 Retracement: ~3,320
________________________________________
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend:
• Range-bound to slight bullish bias (based on ADX low + CVD rising).
b) Notable Patterns:
• Potential ascending channel forming (highlighted in purple).
• Breakout attempt from range, but not confirmed with strong volume yet.
• Minor flag pattern in consolidation near 3,293-3,300.
________________________________________
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
• Entry Zone: 3,293.50 – 3,295.00
• Targets:
o T1: 3,320
o T2: 3,343
• Stop-Loss (SL): 3,278
• RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
• Entry Zone: 3,343 (retest of VAH)
• Target:
o T1: 3,300
• Stop-Loss (SL): 3,355 (above prior swing high)
• RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
• Risk 1-2% of capital per trade only.
Bitcoin Update: Sell or Wait?Hey traders and investors!
An interesting setup on Bitcoin.
On the 1H timeframe, the market is in a sideways range. The current initiative belongs to the sellers. A clear target is marked on the chart. We also have a seller Decision candle, and a seller zone has formed within its range — a strong signal for short setups.
However, on the daily timeframe, the buyers are still in control, and yesterday’s session closed with increased volume.
On the other hand, Friday also showed a volume spike — but without any meaningful result, and the same happened yesterday.
Sell or not? That’s the question...
The 94,900 level might give us the answer.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
XMR: I was there, Gandalf. I was there 3000 years ago...In the crypto space, it's quite difficult to talk about long-term trading because very few coins actually survive for a long time and continue to show cyclical dynamics. But when such coins do appear, their setups can be published in a textbook on technical analysis.
On the weekly chart, we see a formed Wyckoff accumulation structure with almost all the features inherent to this structure on the chart.
We can see how smart money accumulated their positions from mid-2022, conducted a local rally in early 2023, thus forming a range in which we have been for almost 2 years .
This was possible due to the negative sentiment around the coin (tightening regulatory screws, delisting from a number of exchanges, including Binance on February 20, 2024 ) and the lack of speculative hype around XMR.
However, the price has now broken out of the range and confidently consolidated above it, and right now there is a good opportunity in terms of Risk/Reward to go long on XMR.
It should be noted that the trade will be positional, with a horizon of more than 6+ months. However, the wait may be justified because the volume profile on the chart does not illustrate large "walls," i.e., potential seller pressure across the entire price range up to the ATH . KRAKEN:XMRUSD
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H Timeframe
Here’s the detailed breakdown of the NAS100 1H Chart based on Volume Profile, Gann analysis, and custom indicators (CVD + ADX):
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
• Value Area High (VAH): 3,327.1
• Value Area Low (VAL): 3,291.09
• Point of Control (POC): 3,291.09
• High-volume nodes: Between 3,290 and 3,310 (visible dense volume clusters).
• Low-volume gaps: Below 3,270 and above 3,340, price can move fast through these zones.
b) Liquidity Zones:
• Potential stop clusters: Around 3,300 (recent highs), and 3,280 (recent lows).
• Order absorption zones: Strong at 3,291 (POC) and 3,327 (VAH), indicating large player interest.
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
• Swing High (Volume Spike): 3,327 (strong rejection noted).
• Swing Low (Volume Spike): 3,283 (buying absorption observed).
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
• Trend Direction: Range-bound
• ADX Strength:
o ADX < 20, confirming a weak trend / ranging market.
• CVD Confirmation:
o CVD mostly falling slightly with weak price response → slight supply dominance but no strong push.
________________________________________
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
• Support:
o 3,291 (POC support zone)
o 3,283 (Volume-based swing low)
• Resistance:
o 3,327 (VAH resistance zone)
o 3,300 (Minor psychological resistance)
b) Gann-Based Levels:
• Recent Gann Swing High: 3,327
• Recent Gann Swing Low: 3,283
• Key retracements:
o 1/2 level: 3,305
o 1/3 level: 3,300
o 2/3 level: 3,315
________________________________________
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend:
• Range-bound (confirmed by flat ADX and neutral CVD behavior).
b) Notable Patterns:
• Potential descending channel forming between 3,327 resistance and 3,280 support.
• No strong breakout/breakdown yet, price oscillating around mid-volume zones.
• Possible re-tests at POC and VAH regions.
________________________________________
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
• Entry Zone: 3,283 – 3,291 (POC and volume support)
• Targets:
o T1: 3,305 (1/2 retracement and minor resistance)
o T2: 3,327 (VAH and major resistance)
• Stop-Loss (SL): 3,275 (below recent swing low)
• RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
• Entry Zone: 3,327 (VAH resistance)
• Target:
o T1: 3,291 (POC)
• Stop-Loss (SL): 3,335 (above VAH and minor swing highs)
• RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
• Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade.
Technical Breakdown on US100 | 1H TimeframeHere’s the detailed breakdown of the US100 1H Chart based on Volume Profile, Gann analysis, and custom indicators (CVD + ADX):
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 19,383
Value Area Low (VAL): 19,220
Point of Control (POC): 19,291.79
High-volume nodes: Clustered around 19,220 to 19,300 (heavy acceptance).
Low-volume gaps: Above 19,400 and below 19,200 — price can accelerate through these zones.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop clusters likely at: Above 19,400 (recent swing highs). Below 19,200 (recent breakout area).
Order absorption zones: Around 19,291 (POC) and 19,220 (high bid absorption).
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 19,382 (testing resistance with moderate volume).
Swing Low: 19,220 (breakout launch pad).
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Uptrend
ADX Strength: ADX > 20 and DI+ > DI-, confirming strong bullish momentum.
CVD Confirmation: Rising CVD + bullish candles = Strong demand and genuine buying pressure.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support: 19,291.79 (POC) 19,220 (VAL & previous demand zone)
Resistance: 19,382-19,400 (current tested highs and potential breakout point)
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Gann Swing High: 19,382
Recent Gann Swing Low: 19,220
Key retracements: 1/2 level: 19,301 1/3 level: 19,274 2/3 level: 19,328
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend:
Strong Bullish (confirmed by rising ADX and CVD).
b) Notable Patterns:
Ascending Channel: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows inside the purple channel.
Breakout retest: POC retest around 19,291 before moving higher.
No major topping signals yet — still holding structure.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 19,290–19,310 (near POC support zone)
Targets: T1: 19,400 (swing high breakout) T2: 19,500 (measured move from channel)
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,220 (below VAL and previous swing low)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: 19,380–19,400 (at resistance failure)
Target: T1: 19,290 (POC retest)
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,450 (above resistance breakout trap)
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of trading capital per trade.
INFY - Infosys Ltd (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long PositionINFY - Infosys Ltd (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {volume & support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.83
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 1480
Entry limit ~ 1455 to 1435 (Avg. - 1445) on April 28, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 1485 (+2.77%; +40 points)
2. Target limit ~ 1530 (+5.88%; +85 points)
Stop order limit ~ 1415 (-2.08%; -30 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
XLMUSDTHello to all AMKT members, I hope you had a good day.😍
Today we are going to analyze the XLM coin.
On the weekly time frame, we entered a correction after the sharp rise that we were having, and now there are signs of the start of the next upward wave.
On the daily and 4-hour time frame, after the 0.3 break and the volume increase and the rsi enters the overbuy zone, we can take a long position.
For the short position, we can choose another token, but we can enter a short position with a break of 0.2601, but the trading risk is high.
I hope you have a good and profitable day.
Gold in a Sideways RangeHello traders and investors!
The 3283 level, which was the sellers’ target on the daily timeframe, was confidently defended by buyers.
The attacking seller’s candle at this level showed high volume but was absorbed by buyers.
On the 1H timeframe, the market is moving sideways, with active buyer initiative.
The boundaries of the range are marked on the chart with black lines.
It is reasonable to expect the price to move toward the upper boundary of the range at 3363–3370.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Bullish set up is breaking out.... BUT, we have a gap to close.At the very moment we saw big rejection in this golden pocket zone were in right now from the descending channel its been in for a while.
This tells me that the market makers are creating liquidity at this level potentially to revisit at a later date.
We could quickly see this go to $6.35 or $5.40 which I would be a major buyer at.
Still in the longer term bullish trend... for now.
Option contract positions from institutions are primarily short at 5-6 strike. BUT something very interesting to me is that the $8.50 strike has a lot of puts at open interest which might squeeze it over that level if they have to cover.