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CHFZAR - Swiss Franc / S A Rand (Daily chart, OANDA) - LongCHFZAR - Swiss Franc / South African Rand (Daily chart, OANDA) - Long Position; Mid-term research idea. Risk assessment: Medium {Volatility risk} Risk/Reward ratio ~ 5 Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 21.81000 Entry limit ~ 21.65000 on May 12, 2025 Target limit ~ 22.65000 (+4.62%) Stop order limit ~ 21.45000 (-0.92%) Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter. LEGEND: {curly brackets} = observations = important updates (parentheses) = information ~ tilde/approximation = variable value -hyphen = fixed value
Long
by VEDIMarketWatch
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) – 1H Timeframe using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX 1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused) a) Volume Profile Insights: Value Area High (VAH): 3,382.24 Value Area Low (VAL): 3,275.00 (approximate visual level) Point of Control (POC): 3,338.10 High-Volume Nodes: Concentrated around 3,338–3,350 (volume acceptance zone). Low-Volume Gaps: Sharp drop region near 3,310 to 3,295 indicates a lack of market interest – prone to fast moves. b) Liquidity Zones: Stop Cluster Zones: Order Absorption Zones: c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows: Swing High (Volume Spike): Near 3,381–3,382 (sharp rejection, bearish orderflow). Swing Low (Volume Spike): 3,272–3,275 zone, likely buyer absorption. d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis: Trend Direction: Downtrend (recent bearish pressure from CVD with price). ADX Strength: CVD Confirmation: 2. Support & Resistance Levels a) Volume-Based Levels: Support: Resistance: b) Gann-Based Levels: Recent Confirmed High: 3,382 Recent Confirmed Low: 3,272 Retracements from High to Low: 3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure a) Trend: Bearish-Ranging Hybrid Confirmed by low ADX (weak trend) but bearish pressure from CVD + lower highs. b) Notable Patterns: Bearish Flag: Price consolidating inside a descending channel after a breakdown. POC Retest Failure: Indicates inability to reclaim value area – bearish bias. Projection Path: Shows two outcomes – further drift down vs. range reclaim, with downside currently dominant. 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management a) Bearish Entry (CVD + ADX confirm downtrend): Entry Zone: 3,325–3,330 (POC rejection zone) Target: Stop-Loss (SL): 3,345 (above 1/3 Gann level and rejection wick) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): Minimum 1:2 b) Bullish Entry (only if reclaim confirmed above POC): Entry Zone: 3,340–3,345 (on confirmed reclaim with bullish CVD crossover) Targets: Stop-Loss (SL): 3,325 (below reclaim point) RR: 1:2 minimum c) Position Sizing: Risk 1–2% of capital per trade.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ProspireWealth
BTC - Ready for a breakout?Hey traders and investors! On the 10-day chart, an intriguing situation is unfolding. Sellers tested the Key Candle of the previous accumulation breakout — level 89,256, and the buyer’s initiative resumed. Then, a manipulation (false breakout) occurred at the 89,256 test level. Volumes reveal the narrative: sellers sold off at high volumes, while buyers absorbed on declining volumes. Now, a buyer zone has formed below, with the upper boundary at 99,475. Just a few steps away from the ATH. A pullback is always possible, but for now, there are no signs of weakness (even a pullback to 89,256 wouldn't disrupt the bullish structure). Now, the main question: 💡 How far up? +30,000? This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). Wishing you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
Ripple: Potential for Growth!Hey traders and investors! 🚀 Many crypto assets have reached their local targets. I can’t predict what will happen next, but I can track how new candles shift the probability of continued growth or decline. Ripple has strong growth potential. Both the weekly and daily timeframes show sideways ranges (marked by black lines), with the buyer’s initiative active. Decision candles (IKC)* on both timeframes interacted with the lower boundary of the buyer’s initiative. A buyer zone has formed on the weekly timeframe near the lower boundary — marked by a blue rectangle on the chart. With targets aligning on both timeframes, there’s 25% to first target. This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). * Decision candles — candles with increased volume inside initiatives. IKC — the highest-volume candle within initiatives inside a sideways range Wishing you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
Price Action + CVD + VWAP FRVP correlated with DXY🎯 ALGORITHMIC - Mentorship: Friday 09.05.25 during New York session, we traded Price Action + CVD + VWAP FRVP correlated with EU-DXY and we started with CVD Divergency - Apsortion allowing us a trading idea which translated into 1 trade executions on same logic. Then we got an understanding that price was at the 3rd standard deviation using the VWAP and that the VAH correlated perfectly with an FVG created at M15. During the trade we spoted a triple support in which we concluded that was an iceberg order by using EUR-USD futures 6EM(jun 25 contract) to get aquainted with order flow and confirm the iceberg which was later breached creating a new resistence. The LTF, MTF Market structure showed a nice MMSM Market Makers Seller Model forming so we jumped in. Our target.... POC - Point of Control..... Elevate your trading game with this deep-dive into algorithmic setups! In this session (Friday, May 9, 2025, New York hours) we combine classic Price Action with advanced flow tools—CVD, VWAP (including FRVP bands), and FX correlations—to hunt high-probability entries. Here’s what you’ll learn: 🔍 Session Breakdown Trading View Analysis Chart: - M3 - - M15 - - CVD Divergence & Absorption – Spot the imbalance that kick-started our first edge and trade execution. - VWAP 3σ Reversion – Identify when price strays to the third standard deviation and pairs up with a Volume Area High that lines up with an M15 Fair Value Gap. - Iceberg Order Detection – Use EUR/USD futures (6EM, Jun ’25 contract) to confirm hidden liquidity pools at triple-level support, then capitalize when they fliped to resistance creating a new pull back so we re-entered new position enforcing our logic. - Market Structure & MMSM – Read the multi-timeframe swing highs and lows to pinpoint the Market Makers’ Seller Model—and know exactly when to strike. 🎯 Trade Execution & Outcome - Entry triggered by a confluence of CVD setup + VWAP deviation + FVG validation - Confirmation via order-flow iceberg break - Target: Point of Control (POC) 📈 Key Takeaways - How to fuse Price Action with CVD and VWAP for algorithmic precision - Techniques to spot and trade iceberg orders in real time - MTF structural analysis for aligning with institutional flows
Short
by stryng
1
Waiting for Altseason?Hey traders and investors! 🚀 Overview of the Altcoin Market without BTC & ETH (TOTAL3) 📊 Volume Analysis of TOTAL3: Previous POC: $1.7 trillion — the level where volumes accumulated after the last rally and correction. Current POC: $820 billion — the level where major volumes have concentrated over the past 5 weeks. This is 10% below the current market cap. To the Previous POC: There's still 19% potential upside to reach the previous POC. 📈 What Does It Mean? The shift in POC downwards suggests buyers are active at $820 billion, potentially forming a new support zone and a point for continued growth. 💬 What do you think — a signal for growth or just calm before another drop? Share your thoughts in the comments! Wishing you profitable trades!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by AlexeyWolf
ETH Surges 20% Post-Pectra: Crypto's Ultimate Comeback?Ether Clocks 'Insane' 20% Candle Post-Pectra — A Turning Point? The cryptocurrency market witnessed a remarkable event as Ethereum (ETH) surged by an impressive 20% following the successful implementation of the Pectra hard fork. This dramatic price movement has caught the attention of traders, investors, and analysts alike, sparking intense debate about whether this represents a genuine turning point for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization or merely a temporary respite in a challenging market environment. The Pectra Catalyst The Pectra hard fork, representing one of Ethereum's most significant technical upgrades since its transition to proof-of-stake, was successfully implemented in early 2025. This upgrade introduced crucial improvements to the Ethereum network, including enhanced transaction processing efficiency, reduced gas fees, and expanded smart contract functionality. Unlike previous upgrades that sometimes resulted in "buy the rumor, sell the news" reactions, Pectra's implementation appears to have triggered substantial positive price action. The 20% candle marked Ethereum's largest single-day gain in over 18 months, propelling ETH past the crucial $1,900 resistance level that had previously acted as a ceiling for price movements. The timing of the upgrade coincided with increasing institutional interest in Ethereum, creating perfect conditions for a significant price movement. Data from on-chain analytics platforms indicates that large wallet addresses began accumulating ETH in the weeks leading up to Pectra, suggesting informed capital was positioning ahead of the technical catalyst. Institutional Buying Signals On-chain metrics reveal compelling evidence of institutional participation in Ethereum's recent surge. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported a substantial increase in large-value transactions exceeding $1 million in the 72 hours surrounding the Pectra implementation, with transaction volume reaching levels not seen since late 2023. Several key metrics support this institutional narrative: 1. Exchange outflows have accelerated, with over 200,000 ETH leaving centralized exchanges in a single 48-hour period post-Pectra, indicating buyers intend to hold rather than trade. 2. The number of addresses holding more than 1,000 ETH increased by 2.8% in just one week, representing substantial accumulation by wealthy entities. 3. Futures open interest has expanded by over $2 billion since the Pectra announcement, demonstrating increased leveraged positioning. 4. Options markets show a significant skew toward calls, with the put/call ratio reaching its lowest level in 14 months. These metrics collectively suggest that smart money sees the Pectra upgrade as a legitimate inflection point for Ethereum rather than a temporary technical bounce. The Long Position Explosion Perhaps most intriguing is the dramatic increase in long positions across various trading platforms. Data from cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges shows that long-to-short ratios have reached levels not seen since Ethereum's previous major bull run in 2021. This positioning dynamic creates an interesting technical setup where further price increases could trigger a positive feedback loop as short sellers are forced to cover their positions, potentially accelerating ETH's upward movement. Retail Sell-Off vs. Whale Accumulation A fascinating dynamic has emerged in Ethereum's market structure: while retail investors appear to be reducing exposure, larger entities ("whales") are aggressively accumulating. This divergence in behavior between market participants has created an unusual tension in ETH's price action. Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that addresses holding between 0.1 and 10 ETH have decreased their collective holdings by approximately 3% over the past month, indicating retail profit-taking or repositioning. Simultaneously, addresses holding over 1,000 ETH have increased their positions by nearly 7%. This pattern often emerges during major market transitions, where retail participants, scarred by previous drawdowns, remain skeptical of recovery signals while institutional investors position for longer-term trends based on fundamental catalysts. This dynamic creates an interesting market structure where future price movements may depend on which cohort ultimately proves correct in their assessment of Ethereum's prospects. Technical Breakout Analysis From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum's 20% surge represents a significant breakout from multiple resistance levels that had contained price action for months. The move pushed ETH decisively above its 200-day moving average, a key indicator watched by trend-following traders. The volume profile accompanying the move also supports the legitimacy of the breakout, with transaction volume reaching its highest level in nine months. This high-volume breakout typically indicates strong conviction behind the price movement rather than a technical fake-out. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), while showing overbought conditions in the short term, has broken out of a long-term downtrend on higher timeframes, suggesting potential for sustained momentum despite possible near-term consolidation. Macro Context and Ethereum's Narrative Shift Ethereum's dramatic move occurs against a complex macroeconomic backdrop that had previously contributed to crypto market weakness. Recent signals of potential monetary policy shifts, including discussions of rate cuts by central banks, have created a more favorable environment for risk assets broadly. Beyond pure price action, Ethereum's narrative has evolved considerably in recent months. After facing criticism regarding high transaction fees and scaling limitations, the successful implementation of Pectra addresses several key concerns that had dampened enthusiasm for the network. The upgrade's focus on reducing gas fees and improving transaction throughput directly counters the competitive threats from alternative Layer 1 and Layer 2 solutions that had been gaining traction by positioning themselves as more efficient alternatives to Ethereum. This narrative rehabilitation, combined with Ethereum's established network effects and developer ecosystem, creates compelling fundamental support for the recent price action. Sustainability Questions and Potential Challenges While enthusiasm surrounding Ethereum's post-Pectra surge runs high, significant questions remain regarding the sustainability of this momentum. Several potential challenges could impact ETH's trajectory in the coming months: 1. Technical Overextension: The speed and magnitude of the 20% move have pushed short-term technical indicators into overbought territory, potentially setting up conditions for a correctional pullback. 2. Regulatory Uncertainty: The evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, particularly regarding potential security classifications and staking activities, continues to create background uncertainty for Ethereum. 3. Competitive Pressures: Despite Pectra's improvements, alternative blockchains continue to innovate rapidly, potentially challenging Ethereum's dominance in specific use cases. 4. Macro Reversal Risk: Any shift back toward hawkish monetary policy could negatively impact risk assets broadly, potentially including Ethereum despite its technological progress. 5. Execution Risk: While Pectra's implementation was successful, future technical upgrades still carry execution risk that could impact market confidence. Conclusion: A Genuine Turning Point? As market participants attempt to determine whether Ethereum's "insane" 20% candle represents a genuine turning point or a temporary deviation, the weight of evidence increasingly suggests this could indeed mark a significant inflection point in ETH's market cycle. The confluence of technical breakouts, on-chain accumulation signals, derivative positioning, and fundamental improvements through the Pectra upgrade creates a compelling case for sustained momentum. The divergence between retail selling and institutional accumulation further supports the notion that a meaningful market transition may be underway. However, sustainable price appreciation will likely require continued technical execution, expanding adoption metrics, and at minimum, a neutral macro environment that doesn't actively handicap risk assets. For investors and traders, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum can build upon this momentum or if the surge represents another false dawn in a challenging market. But regardless of short-term price action, the successful implementation of Pectra unquestionably strengthens Ethereum's long-term value proposition as a leading blockchain infrastructure platform.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by bryandowningqln
M&M -Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (2 hours chart, NSE) - LongM&M -Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea. Risk assessment: Medium {volume structure integrity risk} Risk/Reward ratio ~ 4.78 Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 2935 Entry limit ~2930 to 2910 (Avg. - 2920) on April 30, 2025 1.⁠ ⁠Target limit ~ 3015 (+3.25%; +95 points) 2.⁠ ⁠Target limit ~ 3135 (+7.36%; +215 points) Stop order limit ~ 2875 (-1.54%; -45 points) Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter. LEGEND: {curly brackets} = observation notes = important updates (parentheses) = information details ~ tilde/approximation = variable value -hyphen = fixed value
NSE:M&MLong
by VEDIMarketWatch
1
Agree to disagree... Gold is topping right now.My price path seen above is a complete guess but it stems from long term trend lines and more importantly order flow from last week. On Thursday there was a #1 trade on AMEX:PHYS for $200+ Million at the green levels in my chart above (Equivalent levels). PRICE WILL 100% go to my green lines by end of this week 04/25. We are over shooting the dark pool sale but a lot, however, this is always to trap retail and create fomo/peak fear. In the correction/recession cycles, gold ALWAYS TOPS LAST before the crash...
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LeapTrades
7
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US100 Cash (NASDAQ CFD) – 1H Timeframe using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX 1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused) a) Volume Profile Insights: Value Area High (VAH): 19,964.8 Value Area Low (VAL): 19,799.3 Point of Control (POC): 19,936.4 (current session), 19,817.5 (previous session) High-volume nodes: 19,850 – 19,950 (sustained consolidation and acceptance) Low-volume gaps: 20,000 – 20,070 (inefficient move up; could act as a magnet on retrace) b) Liquidity Zones: Stop clusters likely at: Above 20,125 (recent high and breakout level) Below 19,800 (previous rejection and consolidation) Absorption zones: Near 19,820–19,850, where strong wicks and CVD upticks indicated passive buyers stepping in c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows: Swing High: 20,125.8 (sharp rejection, low follow-through volume) Swing Low: 19,713.4 (high absorption, spike in CVD) d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis: Trend Direction: Bullish (CVD rising, price confirming higher highs) ADX Strength: ADX ~22, DI+ > DI- → Confirmed uptrend CVD Confirmation: Rising CVD + rising price = strong demand Momentum stalling near 20,125, signaling potential short-term pullback 2. Support & Resistance Levels a) Volume-Based Levels: Support: VAL: 19,799.3 POC: 19,936.4 Swing low: 19,713.4 Resistance: VAH: 19,964.8 Swing high: 20,125.8 b) Gann-Based Levels: Recent swing low: 19,713.4 Retracement levels (from 20,125.8 high to 19,713.4 low): 1/3: 19,850.9 1/2: 19,919.6 2/3: 19,988.3 3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure a) Trend: Bullish (ADX > 20 with CVD and price agreement) b) Notable Patterns: Bullish channel breakout forming Retest of 19,936 POC aligning with previous breakout level Potential continuation pattern (ascending wedge forming within purple projection channel) 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management a) Bullish Entry (CVD + ADX confirm uptrend): Entry Zone: 19,925 – 19,940 (POC + Gann midpoint) Targets: T1: 20,070 (gap fill) T2: 20,125 (recent high) Stop-Loss (SL): Below 19,799 (VAL / swing low) RR: Minimum 1:2 b) Bearish Entry (If rejection near swing high + falling CVD): Entry Zone: 20,120 – 20,125 Target: T1: 19,936 (POC) Stop-Loss (SL): Above 20,150 RR: Minimum 1:2 c) Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade
FX:NAS100Long
by ProspireWealth
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – 1H Timeframe using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX 1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused) a) Volume Profile Insights: Value Area High (VAH): 3,388.2 Value Area Low (VAL): 3,296.7 Point of Control (POC): 3,385.3 High-volume nodes: Dense consolidation between 3,365 – 3,390, indicating institutional activity and balance. Low-volume gaps: Between 3,340 – 3,360 (inefficient move up, price may revisit). b) Liquidity Zones: Stop clusters likely at: Above 3,388 (previous swing high) Below 3,300 (recent swing low) Order absorption areas: Around 3,320 where price stalled with large volume, indicating passive buyers absorbing aggressive sellers. c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows: Swing High: 3,388.5 (strong rejection & volume spike) Swing Low: 3,297.1 (volume bounce support area) d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis: Trend Direction: Range-bound currently (sideways movement in CVD with weak momentum) ADX Strength: ADX < 20 → Indicates weak trend or consolidation CVD Confirmation: CVD is showing slight bullish divergence vs. price → early demand buildup Not yet confirmed with strong trend continuation 2. Support & Resistance Levels a) Volume-Based Levels: Support: VAL: 3,296.7 Absorption zone: 3,320.0 Resistance: VAH: 3,388.2 Swing high: 3,388.5 b) Gann-Based Levels: Recent swing low: 3,297.1 Retracement levels (from recent high 3,388.5 to low 3,297.1): 1/3 Retracement: 3,327.6 1/2 Retracement: 3,342.8 2/3 Retracement: 3,358.0 3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure a) Trend: Range-bound (confirmed by ADX < 20 and flat CVD) b) Notable Patterns: Potential bullish falling wedge pattern forming Projection suggests price might bounce from 3,320 toward upper channel (3,370+) Watch for retest of POC (3,385) for breakout confirmation 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management a) Bullish Entry (Pending confirmation from breakout and CVD support): Entry Zone: 3,320 – 3,325 (channel + volume support) Targets: T1: 3,342.8 (50% Gann) T2: 3,385.3 (POC and VAH) Stop-Loss (SL): Below 3,297 (swing low/VAL) RR: Minimum 1:2 b) Bearish Entry (If rejection at VAH and CVD turns bearish): Entry Zone: 3,385 – 3,388 Target: T1: 3,320.0 Stop-Loss (SL): Above 3,400 RR: Minimum 1:2 c) Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ProspireWealth
LODHA - Bearish due to forming double Top pattern TECHNICAL INDICATORS - DOUBLE TOP PATTERN formation - NSE:LODHA has formed a double top pattern indicating strong downward pressure for the stock Double top is characterized by two consecutive peaks on a price chart, with a dip or low between them & subsequent breakout VOLUME SPIKE - the stock has recently shown two large volume spikes indicating strong upcoming momentum for the stock Generally volumes increase before a significant price movement SHOOTING STAR candlestick - the stock has formed a shooting star candlestick recently indicating trend reversal for it ie from upward movement to downward movement Shooting star is characterized by a small body at bottom and a long upper shadow of a candlestick GAP-DOWN BREAKOUT - the stock has broken out of the pattern with a gap-down indicating very strong downward pressure PROFIT TARGET - 1200 STOP LOSS - 1325
NSE:LODHAShort
by peace_lover
VWAPs Don't Lie—XRP Faces Judgment Day At Monthly Support In the volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, technical indicators often serve as critical guideposts for investors seeking to navigate uncertain markets. Among these indicators, the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has emerged as a powerful tool for assessing market sentiment and potential price movements. For XRP, Ripple's native cryptocurrency, the VWAP is currently telling a compelling story as the digital asset faces a critical juncture at its monthly support level while simultaneously breaking through key resistance barriers. Understanding VWAP and Its Significance for XRP The Volume Weighted Average Price represents the ratio of the value traded to total volume traded over a specific time period. Unlike simple moving averages, VWAP gives more weight to price moves that occur on higher volume, providing a more accurate representation of a security's true average price. For traders, VWAP serves as a benchmark that can indicate potential support and resistance levels. For XRP, the current VWAP analysis reveals a crucial moment in its price trajectory. After months of consolidation following the partial legal victory against the SEC, XRP's price action against its VWAP indicators suggests we're approaching what many analysts are calling a "judgment day" scenario at its monthly support level. Historically, XRP has respected its monthly VWAP lines with remarkable consistency. When the price falls below this indicator, it often signals sustained downward pressure; conversely, when it trades above the VWAP, bullish momentum typically follows. What makes the current situation particularly compelling is that XRP is simultaneously testing its monthly support while breaking through a key resistance level that has capped its upward movement for weeks. XRP's Technical Landscape: Breaking Key Resistance The recent breakthrough above a significant resistance level has generated fresh excitement among XRP investors. This resistance zone, which had repeatedly rejected upward price movements since early this year, finally gave way amid increasing trading volumes and renewed market optimism. Several factors contributed to this technical breakout: 1. Increased Trading Volume: A substantial surge in trading activity provided the necessary momentum to push through resistance. 2. Improving Market Sentiment: The broader cryptocurrency market has shown signs of recovery, lifting sentiment across most digital assets. 3. Institutional Interest: Reports of increasing institutional accumulation of XRP have bolstered confidence in its long-term prospects. 4. Technical Convergence: Multiple technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), aligned to signal bullish momentum. The breakthrough above this key resistance level has opened the path for XRP to potentially test higher price targets. Technical analysts have identified several important levels to watch in the coming weeks, with projections suggesting that XRP could reach significantly higher valuations if the current momentum is sustained. Monthly Support: The Line in the Sand While the resistance breakthrough is undoubtedly positive, XRP simultaneously faces a critical test at its monthly support level. This support zone has acted as a reliable floor for XRP prices during previous downturns, and maintaining this level is crucial for preserving bullish momentum. The monthly VWAP serves as a key component of this support structure. As volumes have increased, the VWAP has begun to flatten and show early signs of turning upward—a potentially bullish signal. However, failure to hold this support could trigger a cascade of selling pressure, potentially erasing recent gains. Market observers note that this monthly support level coincides with several other technical indicators, creating what traders call a "confluence zone." These areas, where multiple support factors align, often prove to be significant inflection points for price action. For XRP, the current confluence zone represents not just a technical support level but a psychological barrier that could determine market sentiment in the months ahead. The Ripple Effect: Fundamental Catalysts Behind Price Action While technical analysis provides valuable insights into potential price movements, fundamental factors continue to influence XRP's market performance. Ripple, the company closely associated with XRP, has maintained progress on several fronts despite ongoing legal challenges. The company's cross-border payment network, RippleNet, continues to expand its global footprint, with new partnerships announced across financial sectors. These real-world applications provide a foundation for XRP utility beyond speculative trading, potentially supporting long-term value. Additionally, developments in the regulatory landscape have created both challenges and opportunities. The SEC case against Ripple, which initially caused significant market uncertainty, has evolved in ways that many legal experts interpret as increasingly favorable for Ripple. Court rulings that distinguished XRP sales to institutional investors from sales on secondary markets have provided some regulatory clarity, though final resolutions remain pending. The combination of expanding real-world utility and potential regulatory clarity has created an environment where technical breakouts may have stronger fundamental support than in previous cycles. Global Market Context: External Influences on XRP XRP's price action does not occur in isolation, and global market factors continue to exert significant influence. Several external factors currently impact XRP's technical outlook: 1. Dollar Strength: Fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index have historically shown inverse correlations with cryptocurrency prices, including XRP. 2. Institutional Capital Flows: Shifting patterns in institutional investment have created new dynamics in the cryptocurrency market. 3. Regulatory Developments: Beyond the Ripple case, the broader regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies continues to evolve globally. 4. Correlation with Bitcoin: Despite efforts to establish independent price action, XRP maintains significant correlation with Bitcoin's market movements. These external factors create a complex backdrop against which the technical battle at XRP's monthly support is playing out. Traders are carefully monitoring these influences for signs of how they might affect XRP's ability to maintain support and extend its recent breakout. Trading Strategies at the Inflection Point For traders navigating the current technical landscape, the confluence of monthly support testing and resistance breakout creates both opportunities and risks. Several trading approaches have emerged: 1. Breakout Confirmation Strategy: Some traders are waiting for additional confirmation of the resistance breakout before establishing new positions, looking for sustained trading above the recently broken level with strong volume. 2. Support Bounce Plays: Others are focusing on the monthly support level, planning entries if the price successfully bounces from this zone with convincing volume patterns. 3. Scaling Strategies: More conservative traders are implementing scaling strategies, gradually building positions as technical confirmations emerge. 4. Options and Derivatives Plays: In the derivatives markets, strategies focused on volatility expectations have gained popularity as traders anticipate significant price movement following the resolution of the current technical standoff. What unifies these varied approaches is recognition of the current juncture's significance. The convergence of monthly VWAP support testing and resistance breakthrough represents a relatively rare technical setup that typically precedes substantial price movement in one direction or another. Historical Precedents: What Past VWAP Interactions Tell Us Looking at historical instances where XRP faced similar technical conditions provides valuable context for the current situation. Several notable examples stand out: In late 2020, XRP successfully defended its monthly VWAP support before beginning a rally that would eventually see prices increase by over 800% in the subsequent months. The successful defense of this support level, combined with increasing volume, preceded one of XRP's most significant bull runs. Conversely, in May 2021, XRP's failure to maintain its position above the monthly VWAP coincided with a market-wide correction that saw the asset lose over 70% of its value. This historical instance demonstrates the potential downside risk when VWAP support fails. More recently, in early 2023, XRP tested its monthly VWAP during a period of market uncertainty. The successful defense of this level led to a period of relative price stability before a measured upward movement. This example presents a more moderate outcome possibility for the current situation. These historical precedents illustrate the range of potential outcomes following interactions with monthly VWAP levels, from dramatic rallies to severe corrections to more measured movements. What they consistently demonstrate is that these interactions tend to precede significant price action rather than continued consolidation. Fresh Upside Momentum: Targets and Projections With XRP breaking through key resistance and testing monthly support, attention naturally turns to potential upside targets if bullish momentum continues. Technical analysts have identified several significant levels: 1. Initial Resistance Zone: The first major resistance above current levels sits approximately 20-25% higher, representing previous local highs that briefly capped earlier rally attempts. 2. Psychological Barriers: Beyond technical levels, psychological price points represent important barriers that could temporarily slow momentum as profit-taking occurs. 3. Long-term Technical Targets: Some analysts have identified far more ambitious targets based on larger technical patterns, though these would likely require sustained momentum over a longer timeframe. It's important to note that these projections assume XRP successfully defends its monthly support level. Failure to maintain this support would invalidate many of these upside targets and potentially trigger downside projections instead. Volume patterns will be critical in determining whether upside momentum can be sustained. Thus far, volume has shown encouraging signs, with increasing participation during upward price movements—a classic sign of authentic buying pressure rather than technical-driven price action with limited participation. Risk Factors and Potential Headwinds Despite the promising technical setup, several risk factors could disrupt XRP's path forward: 1. Legal Uncertainties: Though Ripple has secured some favorable rulings, the ongoing legal case continues to present unpredictable risks. 2. Market Liquidity Concerns: Broader market liquidity conditions could impact XRP's ability to sustain momentum, particularly if institutional investors reduce risk exposure. 3. Technical Invalidation: A decisive break below monthly support would invalidate the bullish case and potentially trigger substantial selling. 4. Competitor Developments: Advances from competing blockchain payment solutions could impact market perception of XRP's utility and long-term value proposition. Prudent investors acknowledge these risks while assessing the technical opportunity presented by the current setup. Risk management approaches, including clearly defined exit strategies if support fails, remain essential despite the optimistic technical outlook. Conclusion: Judgment Day for XRP The confluence of monthly VWAP support testing and key resistance breakthrough has created what many analysts describe as a judgment day scenario for XRP. The resolution of this technical standoff will likely determine the asset's price trajectory for weeks or even months to come. The VWAP indicator, with its volume-weighted approach to price analysis, has historically provided reliable signals for XRP's major price movements. The current readings suggest we're at a critical inflection point where significant price discovery in one direction or the other appears imminent. For investors and traders, this technical juncture represents both opportunity and risk. The resistance breakthrough provides a potentially bullish signal, but this outlook remains contingent on successfully defending the monthly support level where the VWAP currently resides. As volume patterns evolve and price action develops around these key levels, market participants would be wise to remember the maxim that has proven reliable throughout XRP's trading history: when it comes to identifying genuine market momentum and sustainable price trends, VWAPs don't lie. The coming weeks will reveal whether XRP can transform its technical promise into sustained upward momentum or if support failure will lead to renewed downside pressure. The judgment day at monthly support has arrived for XRP. The market's verdict awaits.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) – Intraday Outlook | May 5, 2025I'm closely watching the 3.5341 level — it's the high of the bar with the highest volume traded recently, making it a significant area of interest. If price returns to this level, it may act as a potential pivot point for a long setup. 📈 Bullish Scenario: If price reacts positively from 3.5341, confirming buyer presence, I will consider long entries from this level with the following targets: 🎯 Long Targets: Target 1: 3.7396 Target 2: 3.8153 📉 Bearish Scenario: If price breaks below 3.5341 and shows weakness on the retest, I’ll look for a short setup from that level. 🎯 Short Target: 3.4052 #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #VSA #NG #HenryHub #NaturalGas #FuturesTrading #VolumeSpreadAnalysis
FX:NGAS
by AzbelTrades
Is Gold Ready to Break the High… Again?On the Daily timeframe , the seller’s level at 3366.900 , formed by the April 22nd bar, was broken by strong buying pressure and is currently being retested from above. On the Hourly chart , I’m observing a bullish wide-spread bar with the highest volume, which also broke through the 3366.900 level. 📈This bar has its own test at 3349.745, which supports the bullish bias for now. As long as this level holds, I expect the long scenario to remain valid. Overhead, there is resistance from sellers at 3404.761 . If price breaks above it, the next upside targets are: 🎯 3438.708 🎯 3500.120 #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #VSA #XAUUSD #GOLD # #FuturesTrading #VolumeSpreadAnalysis
TVC:GOLD
by AzbelTrades