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Wave Analysis

Stronger Dollar Pressures Yen on Geopolitical RisksThe Japanese yen fell past 144.2 per dollar on Monday, marking a second day of losses, as the U.S. dollar strengthened on increased safe-haven demand. This followed renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, with both sides targeting energy facilities and pushing oil prices higher. The rise in energy costs may reduce the chances of a near-term Fed rate cut as inflation and trade risks persist. Meanwhile, focus turns to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing the inflation impact of rising oil prices amid global uncertainty. Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.
by ChartMage
NASDAQ Analysis: Navigating Uncertainty in a Shifting LandscapeThe NASDAQ has been on a rollercoaster ride lately 🎢, reflecting both global macro shifts and sector-specific dynamics. After dipping into bear market territory earlier in the year, the index has rebounded strongly, powered by mega-cap tech and the ongoing AI boom 🤖. However, the mood remains cautious as investors weigh political and economic cross-currents. Note how price action is stalling at the current level. Fundamentals & Earnings 💼 Earnings Resilience: Q1 2025 earnings for NASDAQ heavyweights were robust, with tech giants posting double-digit growth. Yet, forward guidance is more muted, as companies brace for the impact of higher tariffs and global supply chain adjustments. Valuations: The recent rally has pushed forward P/E ratios well above long-term averages, making the market more sensitive to any negative surprises 📈. AI & Innovation: Capital expenditure on AI is set to exceed$300 billion this year, keeping the sector in the spotlight and fueling optimism for long-term growth. Political & Geopolitical Factors 🌍 Trade Policy: The U.S. and China have agreed to a temporary pause on new tariffs, easing some immediate concerns. However, the average effective tariff rate remains much higher than last year, and uncertainty lingers as legal challenges and further negotiations loom. Fiscal Policy: U.S. deficit worries are back in focus, with new legislation projected to add trillions to the national debt over the next decade. This has contributed to higher Treasury yields and a weaker dollar 💵. Global Competition: International equities have outperformed U.S. stocks over the past six months, but history suggests this may be stretched, and a reversal could be on the horizon. Market Sentiment & Technicals 📊 Volatility: While volatility has eased from its spring highs, sentiment remains fragile. Consumer and business confidence indices are at multi-year lows, even as hard economic data (like jobless claims) remains resilient. Sector Rotation: Growth and cyclical sectors—especially tech, consumer discretionary, and industrials—have led the rebound, but investors are increasingly selective, favoring companies with strong fundamentals and global reach. Outlook: The NASDAQ is cautiously optimistic for the second half of 2025. The market is pricing in a couple of Fed rate cuts by year-end, but the path forward depends on inflation trends, trade clarity, and corporate earnings. Key Takeaways 🚦 The NASDAQ is in recovery mode, but faces headwinds from trade policy, fiscal uncertainty, and stretched valuations. Political developments—especially around tariffs and fiscal policy—will be key drivers of volatility. Long-term, the AI and tech innovation wave remains a powerful tailwind, but near-term caution is warranted. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets are volatile and subject to rapid change. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by fxtraderanthony
USDCAD Under Pressure: Chart Signals & Macro Forces Point South!The USDCAD pair is under clear pressure, as illustrated in this chart 📊. The visual structure highlights a persistent bearish trend, with price action consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. The chart is reinforcing the idea that sellers are dominating the market. Notably, the drawn arrow in the chart points toward previous higher timeframe lows, suggesting that these areas could be the next logical targets for price action if the current trend persists. On the fundamental side, the US dollar has been weakened by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and softer economic data, fueling expectations of potential rate cuts later this year 🏦. In contrast, the Canadian dollar has been buoyed by strong commodity prices—especially oil—and a relatively hawkish Bank of Canada. The bearish structure seen in the chart aligns with these macro drivers, as the CAD continues to benefit from both domestic strength and global demand for commodities. Geopolitically, ongoing global trade tensions and shifting risk sentiment have further supported the Canadian dollar, as investors seek stability in commodity-backed currencies 🌍. The combination of these factors, as reflected in the chart, suggests that USDCAD remains vulnerable, and a move down to retest previous higher timeframe lows is a real possibility unless there’s a significant shift in the underlying fundamentals. Traders should keep an eye on the key support zones highlighted in the chart, as these could provide clues for potential exhaustion or reversal in the current trend 🔎. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a professional before making any trading decisions.
Short
by fxtraderanthony
Gold Breaks Out as Iran Tensions Flare🚨 Israel’s Iran strike fears are sending gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) soaring to $3448! reports Israel may target Iran’s nuclear sites (June 16, 2025), fueling safe-haven demand as oil prices climb. 4H Chart Analysis: Price Action: XAUUSD cleared $3440 resistance (a June 2025 high) after a 2-week consolidation, confirming an uptrend. Volume: 4H volume surged 20% vs. the prior week, reflecting strong buying pressure. Key Levels: Current Support: $3440 (former resistance, now support, tested today). Next Support: $3410-$3420 (consolidation low, held three times since June 1, 2025). Context: Gold is up 6.49% this month, with $3448 the highest 4H close since May 2025, driven by Middle East risks. The $3440 breakout with high volume shows buyers dominating. $3410-$3420 is a key support zone for pullbacks, backed by recent price action. Track Iran news and volume for breakout strength or reversal signals. How’s your 4H gold setup looking? Drop your charts! 👇 #GoldPrice #XAUUSD #IsraelIran #SafeHaven #TradingView
TVC:GOLDLong
by DCAChampion
#XAI/USDT#XAI The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading toward a strong breakout and retest. We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel. This support is at 0.0570. We are experiencing a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are heading toward stability above the 100 moving average. Entry price: 0.0686 First target: 0.0620 Second target: 0.0650 Third target: 0.0686
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
GBPNZD Analysis | Bullish Breakout in Play?📈 GBP/NZD Analysis – Bullish Breakout in Play? Overview: The GBP/NZD pair has broken above a long-standing bearish trendline and is currently retesting a key support level near 2.24085. This level has acted as a solid base after the price exited the previous range zone. Technical Highlights: ✅ Bearish Trendline Breakout – The downtrend has been breached, indicating potential bullish momentum. ✅ Support Holding Strong – 2.24085 has been respected multiple times, reinforcing its importance. ✅ Higher Lows Formation – Price is forming a structure of higher lows, confirming bullish bias. Next Resistance Target: 2.27683 Potential Scenarios: Bullish continuation towards resistance with a breakout above 2.2600. Possible pullback to trendline or support before resuming uptrend. Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice): Look for long entries on bullish confirmation above the trendline or on a pullback to support. Set TP around 2.2750 – 2.2780 zone. Risk Management: Always use stop-loss and proper risk-to-reward ratio. 💬 What do you think? Are we heading to 2.2768 or will the support get retested again? #GBPNZD #ForexAnalysis #TradingView #BreakoutTrade #PriceAction
Long
by James-Pipstr
#PYTH/USDT#PYTH The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading toward a strong breakout and retest. We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel. This support is at 0.1030. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upward trend. We are heading toward stability above the 100 moving average. Entry price: 0.1080 First target: 0.1111 Second target: 0.1140 Third target: 0.1180
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
$COIN Daily/Weekly — Setting up for Knife Action Below 235 📉 COIN Daily/Weekly — Setting up for Knife Action Below 235 🔪 Thesis: Price action continues to mirror prior failed consolidations followed by sharp flushes. After weak consolidation near 277, we are seeing early signs of exhaustion. Current price sitting at 242.71, directly above a key pivot zone at 235. Historical behavior suggests we could see another aggressive leg lower if 235 breaks. Key Levels: 🔑 235 — critical trigger level for downside. 🔻 208 — primary target (prior support + measured move target). ❌ 250-255 — invalidation zone on strong upside reclaim. Historical Context: Previous breakdowns off similar consolidations have produced sharp -24% to -37% drops within 35-42 days. Current measured move targets a similar ~24% decline in 42 days to 209 area. Weak consolidation above 235 usually precedes these knife moves. Trigger Plan: Watch for early week failed push into 242-245. Breakdown through 235 triggers short entries. Momentum into 208 target ideally within 1-2 weeks, though conservatively allowing for 42 days based on historical pattern. Indicators (Supporting Bearish Bias): 📊 RSI stuck near neutral but rolling over. 📉 MACD losing bullish momentum. 🔻 Volume has historically spiked into breakdowns. Summary: Expecting a flush below 235 to 208 if weakness confirms. Quick failed rallies into 242-245 could offer ideal short entries. Any weekly close under 235 will confirm bearish momentum shift. ⚠️ As always, this is not financial advice — strictly my personal trade plan. - Taz
NASDAQ:COINShort
by TazmanianTrader
US30 (Dow Jones) Analysis – June 2025 Outlook📊 US30 (Dow Jones) Analysis – June 2025 Outlook 🔍 1. Fundamental Analysis The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is currently navigating a complex environment shaped by macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical tensions. Below is an in-depth review of current factors influencing its price action: 🏦 Monetary Policy & Economic Indicators Federal Reserve Stance: After a series of rate hikes between 2022 and 2024, the Fed has adopted a more dovish tone in 2025. Market consensus now expects the Fed to cut rates by Q3–Q4 2025 as inflation cools and growth moderates. Inflation: The May 2025 CPI came in lower than expected at 2.7% YoY, signaling disinflation. Core CPI and PCE data also reflect a slowing pace of price increases, strengthening the case for easing. Labor Market: Non-farm payrolls have stabilized, but wage growth is slowing. Unemployment remains low at 3.8%, but job creation is skewed toward lower-paying service sectors. Growth Metrics: ISM Manufacturing PMI remains below 50 (contraction), but Services PMI is resilient. Consumer confidence dipped recently, reflecting uncertainty, yet consumer spending remains robust. 🌍 Geopolitical Climate Iran–Israel Conflict Escalation (Mid 2025): The recent Iran-Israel military clashes have rattled markets, briefly triggering risk-off flows. The conflict has led to spikes in crude oil prices, pushing energy stocks higher but raising concerns about inflation re-acceleration. US–China Relations: Ongoing trade tensions over semiconductors and AI have led to sanctions on key Chinese tech firms. Despite this, tech-heavy indices remain resilient due to domestic demand and AI sector optimism. Global Monetary Policy Divergence: While the Fed is dovish, the ECB has already started cutting rates, boosting global liquidity. This divergence supports capital inflows into US equities, especially defensive and industrial sectors represented in the Dow. 📉 2. Technical Analysis (Smart Money Concepts) The daily chart of US30, as annotated, reflects a clear transition from a bearish structure to a bullish regime, validated by Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology: 🔄 Market Structure Shift Bearish Trend: Price was forming Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) into early 2025. Change of Character (ChoCH): A significant bullish shift occurred with a closure above 42842, invalidating the prior LH and suggesting institutional buying. Break of Structure (BOS): Followed by a clean higher high, reinforcing the bullish momentum. 🧱 Key SMC Levels & Zones Buy Zone (Demand): Between 41,600 and 41,800, this region aligns with: A previous Higher Low (HL) A visible Fair Value Gap (FVG)/Imbalance Psychological support zone Expected to be a strong institutional demand zone for a long setup. IDM (Intermediate Demand Mitigation): Minor liquidity grab possible before retest of buy zone. An early sign of bullish intent may appear here. Bearish Invalidation Level: 41,179 is the key structural level. A daily closure below 41,179 would invalidate bullish bias and trigger a bearish BOS. 📈 Trend & Liquidity Outlook Liquidity Pools: Sell-side liquidity rests below recent HLs, particularly near IDM and the Buy Zone. Buy-side liquidity above recent HH (~43,800) is the next target if price rebounds. Trendline Support: Ascending trendline from April continues to hold. Acts as dynamic support intersecting the Buy Zone in late June. Targets: TP1: 43,000 (recent swing high) TP2: 43,800–44,000 (liquidity magnet zone) Final Supply Zone: 45,078 (historical resistance, visible on chart) 📌 Scenario Planning (SMC-Based) Primary (Bullish) Scenario: Price retraces into Buy Zone (41,600–41,800). Forms bullish engulfing or displacement candle. Entry long → Target 43,800+, SL below 41,179. Alternate (Bearish) Scenario: Price closes below 41,179 (breaks structure). Bias flips to bearish. Next support zone lies around 40,300–40,500. NOTE: ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
FOREXCOM:US30
by Awii_Khan
USDJPY Technical Brief: Structure Points Lower 💴 USDJPY: Structure suggests further downside The upward movement from April 22 to May 12 appears to be corrective — I label it as a double zigzag.
The segment from May 12 to May 27, on the other hand, is highly likely to be an impulse. After that, the price moved into a range, the boundaries of which are gradually narrowing. This gives reason to assume the formation of a contracting triangle (cT). If this scenario plays out, we may see:
 🔸 a break of the 142.108 low
 🔸 a drop toward the 139.883 zone
 🔸 an overall potential decline within the 140.8–138.0 range 📎 Link to my long-term FX:USDJPY OANDA:USDJPY FOREXCOM:USDJPY scenario:
Short
by shakatrade1_618
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