Risk Management in Options TradingTrading options can be exciting and rewarding—but it's also full of risks. Without proper risk management, even the best strategies can lead to heavy losses. In this comprehensive guide, we'll dive deep into how to manage risk in options trading, covering everything from the basics to advanced techniques.
1. Understanding Risk in Options Trading
Before we dive into managing risk, it’s crucial to understand where risk comes from in options trading. Options are complex instruments that behave differently than stocks. The key sources of risk include:
A. Price Movement (Delta Risk)
When the price of the underlying stock moves up or down, the value of the option changes. This is known as Delta risk. A call option gains value when the stock goes up, and a put gains value when it goes down.
B. Time Decay (Theta Risk)
Options lose value over time. Even if the stock price doesn’t move, the option could still lose value as the expiration date approaches. This is known as Theta decay or time decay.
C. Volatility (Vega Risk)
Volatility reflects how much a stock moves. High volatility increases an option's premium. But if implied volatility falls, the value of your option might drop—even if your price prediction is correct.
D. Interest Rates and Dividends (Rho and Dividend Risk)
Although less impactful, interest rates and dividend changes can also influence option prices. These are more important for longer-dated options.
2. Why Is Risk Management Critical in Options?
Options give traders leverage—a small investment can control a large position. While this magnifies profits, it also increases losses. Many beginners fall into the trap of chasing big gains, only to blow up their accounts when trades go wrong.
Good risk management doesn’t eliminate risk—it helps you survive bad trades and stay in the game long enough for your edge to work.
3. Core Principles of Options Risk Management
Here are the foundational principles every options trader should follow:
A. Never Risk More Than You Can Afford to Lose
It sounds obvious, but many traders ignore this. Only use disposable capital, not money meant for rent, bills, or emergencies.
B. Position Sizing
This is one of the most powerful tools in risk management. Don’t bet your entire capital on a single trade. A common rule is to risk 1-2% of your capital on any trade. That way, even a string of losing trades won’t wipe you out.
C. Diversify Your Trades
Avoid putting all your trades on the same stock or sector. Diversification can reduce risk from unexpected news events or market shocks.
D. Know Your Maximum Loss
Before entering any trade, calculate your maximum potential loss. With long calls and puts, your loss is limited to the premium paid. But with short options or complex strategies like spreads, losses can be higher or even unlimited.
4. Practical Risk Management Techniques
A. Use Stop-Loss Orders (Where Applicable)
While options don’t always behave like stocks, you can still set a mental or physical stop-loss based on:
Percentage loss (e.g., exit if the option loses 50%)
Underlying price level (e.g., exit if stock breaks below a key level)
Time decay (e.g., exit 5 days before expiration to avoid Theta crush)
❗ Note: Stop-losses can be tricky with options because of wide bid-ask spreads. It’s important to use limit orders or mental stops to avoid slippage.
B. Avoid Naked Options (Especially Selling)
Selling naked calls or puts can expose you to unlimited risk. Unless you have a large account and full understanding, stick to defined-risk strategies like:
Spreads (credit/debit)
Iron condors
Butterflies
Covered calls
Protective puts
C. Hedge Your Positions
Hedging is like buying insurance. You can reduce risk by combining options in a way that limits losses.
Example:
If you sell a naked put, you can turn it into a bull put spread by buying a lower strike put. This limits your downside if the stock crashes.
D. Use Probability and Greeks
Understanding the "Greeks" can help you analyze risk exposure:
Greek What it Measures Risk Managed
Delta Price sensitivity Directional risk
Theta Time decay Time-related loss
Vega Volatility impact Volatility exposure
Gamma Delta’s change rate Acceleration of price impact
Rho Interest rate impact (minor risk)
Knowing your Greeks allows you to adjust trades when risks become too high.
5. Options Strategies for Risk Management
Some strategies are naturally more “risky,” while others are designed to limit downside. Let’s look at popular risk-managed strategies:
A. Covered Call
You own 100 shares of a stock and sell a call option. This gives you income (premium) and limits upside risk.
Risk: Stock falls
Reward: Premium + upside to strike price
B. Protective Put
You buy a put while holding the stock. It protects you from downside losses, like insurance.
Risk: Cost of put (premium)
Reward: Unlimited upside; limited downside
C. Vertical Spreads (Credit and Debit)
These involve buying and selling options at different strikes.
Bull Call Spread: Buy call + sell higher call
Bear Put Spread: Buy put + sell lower put
Both strategies have limited risk and reward, making them ideal for risk-conscious traders.
D. Iron Condor
You sell a call spread and a put spread on the same stock. Profitable when the stock stays in a defined range.
Risk: Limited to width of spread minus premium
Reward: Net credit received
This is a great strategy for sideways markets and offers good risk/reward if managed well.
6. Managing Risk Over Time
A. Adjusting Trades
If a trade moves against you, you don’t always have to take the loss. You can:
Roll the option to a later expiration
Adjust strikes to collect more credit or redefine risk
Convert to a spread or different strategy
However, be careful not to over-manage trades, which can lead to complex and risky positions.
B. Avoid Trading Around Events
Earnings announcements, Fed meetings, and budget declarations can cause huge volatility spikes. Option premiums are often inflated before such events. If you trade them, keep position size small and use defined-risk trades only.
Wave Analysis
Options Trading Strategies: From Simple to AdvancedPart 1: The Basics of Options
Before diving into strategies, let’s review the two core types of options:
1. Call Option (CE)
Gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to buy an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) within a specific time period.
Bullish in nature.
2. Put Option (PE)
Gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific time period.
Bearish in nature.
Each option has a premium (price you pay to buy the option), and that’s the maximum loss a buyer can face. Sellers (or writers), on the other hand, receive the premium but take on higher risk.
Part 2: Simple Options Strategies
These are basic strategies suitable for new traders.
1. Buying a Call Option (Long Call)
When to Use: If you expect the stock/index to rise significantly.
Risk: Limited to the premium paid.
Reward: Unlimited potential profit.
Example:
Stock XYZ is trading at ₹100. You buy a 105 Call Option at ₹2 premium.
If stock moves to ₹115:
Intrinsic Value = ₹10
Profit = ₹10 - ₹2 = ₹8 per share
Why It’s Good: Cheap entry, high upside.
2. Buying a Put Option (Long Put)
When to Use: If you expect the stock/index to fall.
Risk: Limited to the premium paid.
Reward: High if stock crashes.
Example:
You buy a 95 PE when stock is at ₹100, and premium is ₹3.
If stock falls to ₹85:
Intrinsic Value = ₹10
Profit = ₹10 - ₹3 = ₹7 per share
Why It’s Good: Good for bearish bets or portfolio hedging.
3. Covered Call
When to Use: You own the stock and expect neutral to moderately bullish movement.
Risk: Limited upside potential.
Reward: Premium + stock movement (if not called away).
Example:
You own 100 shares of XYZ @ ₹100.
You sell 110 CE for ₹5.
If stock rises to ₹110, you sell at that level and keep ₹5 premium.
If it stays below ₹110, you keep the shares + premium.
Why It’s Good: Generates income from stocks you hold.
4. Protective Put
When to Use: You own a stock and want downside protection.
Risk: Limited downside.
Reward: Unlimited upside.
Example:
Own 100 shares of XYZ @ ₹100.
Buy a 95 PE at ₹3.
If stock drops to ₹85, your put becomes worth ₹10, offsetting losses.
Why It’s Good: Acts like insurance on your holdings.
Part 3: Intermediate Strategies
Once you’re comfortable with buying/selling calls and puts, it’s time to explore neutral and range-bound strategies.
5. Bull Call Spread
When to Use: You expect a moderate rise in the stock/index.
Risk: Limited.
Reward: Limited.
Structure:
Buy 100 CE at ₹5
Sell 110 CE at ₹2
Net Cost: ₹3
Max Profit: ₹10 - ₹3 = ₹7
Max Loss: ₹3
Why It’s Good: Lower cost than buying a call outright.
Part 4: Risk Management Tips
Never deploy a strategy you don’t understand.
Use stop-loss and position sizing to avoid blowing up capital.
Be aware of Greeks (Delta, Theta, Vega) — they drive profits/losses.
Avoid naked options selling unless you have enough margin and experience.
Always review IV (Implied Volatility) before placing straddles or condors.
Understand expiry effects — options lose value faster as expiry nears.
Part 5: Real-Life Example
Let’s say Nifty is trading at 22,000. You expect no major movement till expiry. You execute an Iron Condor:
Sell 22100 CE at ₹100
Buy 22300 CE at ₹40
Sell 21900 PE at ₹90
Buy 21700 PE at ₹30
Net Credit = ₹100 - ₹40 + ₹90 - ₹30 = ₹120
Max Loss = Spread width (200) - Net Credit = ₹80
If Nifty stays between 21900 and 22100 — all options expire worthless and you earn full ₹120.
Conclusion
Options trading is like a chess game — it's not only about direction, but also timing, volatility, and strategy structure. Simple strategies like buying calls and puts are perfect for starters, but intermediate and advanced strategies allow you to profit in any kind of market — bullish, bearish, or neutral.
The key lies in choosing the right strategy for the right market condition, managing risks, and being patient.
Whether you're hedging your portfolio, generating income, or speculating on big market moves, options provide the tools — but it’s your responsibility to use them wisely.
If you’d like charts, payoff diagrams, or examples using live data (like Bank Nifty or stocks), let me know and I can include those too!
Basics of Options: Calls and PutsWhat are Options?
An option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset (like a stock or index) at a specific price, on or before a specific date.
Think of it like booking a movie ticket. You reserve the right to watch a movie at a particular time and seat. But if you don’t go, it’s your choice. You lose the ticket price (premium), but you're not forced to go. Options work similarly.
Options are of two basic types:
Call Option
Put Option
Let’s break both down in detail.
1. What is a Call Option?
A Call Option gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to buy the underlying asset at a pre-decided price (called the strike price) on or before a certain date (called the expiry date).
When do traders buy a Call Option?
When they believe the price of the underlying stock or index will go up in the future.
Example of Call Option (Simple Case)
Let’s say you are bullish on Reliance Industries stock, which is currently trading at ₹2,500.
You buy a Call Option with:
Strike Price: ₹2,550
Premium Paid: ₹30 per share
Lot Size: 250 shares
Expiry: Monthly expiry (say end of the month)
You believe Reliance will go up beyond ₹2,550 soon. If it goes to ₹2,600 before expiry:
Your profit per share = ₹2,600 (market price) - ₹2,550 (strike price) = ₹50
Net Profit = ₹50 - ₹30 (premium) = ₹20 per share
Total Profit = ₹20 x 250 = ₹5,000
But if Reliance stays below ₹2,550, say at ₹2,500 on expiry, you won’t exercise the option. You lose only the premium (₹30 x 250 = ₹7,500).
Key Terminologies in Call Options
In the Money (ITM): When the stock price is above the strike price.
At the Money (ATM): When the stock price is equal to the strike price.
Out of the Money (OTM): When the stock price is below the strike price.
2. What is a Put Option?
A Put Option gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to sell the underlying asset at a pre-decided price (strike price) on or before the expiry.
When do traders buy a Put Option?
When they believe the price of the underlying stock or index will fall in the future.
Example of Put Option (Simple Case)
Assume HDFC Bank is trading at ₹1,600. You are bearish and expect it to fall.
You buy a Put Option with:
Strike Price: ₹1,580
Premium: ₹20 per share
Lot Size: 500 shares
Expiry: Monthly
If HDFC Bank falls to ₹1,520:
You can sell at ₹1,580 even though market price is ₹1,520
Gross profit per share = ₹60
Net profit = ₹60 - ₹20 = ₹40 per share
Total profit = ₹40 x 500 = ₹20,000
If HDFC stays above ₹1,580, your put expires worthless. You lose only the premium (₹10,000).
Key Terminologies in Put Options
In the Money (ITM): Stock price below strike price.
At the Money (ATM): Stock price = strike price.
Out of the Money (OTM): Stock price above strike price.
Who are the Two Parties in an Option Contract?
1. Option Buyer (Holder)
Pays the premium
Has rights, but not obligations
Can exercise the option if profitable
Loss is limited to the premium paid
2. Option Seller (Writer)
Receives the premium
Has obligation to fulfill the contract if the buyer exercises
Risk is unlimited for call writers and limited for put writers (if stock price becomes zero)
Profit is limited to the premium received
Difference between Call and Put Options (Summary Table)
Feature Call Option Put Option
Buyer’s Expectation Bullish (price will go up) Bearish (price will go down)
Right Buy at strike price Sell at strike price
Profit Potential Unlimited Limited (until price reaches zero)
Risk (for buyer) Limited to premium Limited to premium
Seller’s Role Sells call & hopes price won’t rise Sells put & hopes price won’t fall
Premium and What Influences It?
The premium is the price you pay to buy an option. This is influenced by:
Intrinsic Value: Difference between market price and strike price
Time Value: More days to expiry = higher premium
Volatility: Higher the volatility = higher the premium
Interest Rates and Dividends
What is Strike Price and Expiry?
Strike Price: The price at which you can buy (call) or sell (put) the underlying stock
Expiry: The last date till which the option is valid. In India:
Weekly expiry for Nifty, Bank Nifty, and FINNIFTY
Monthly expiry for stocks
SUI/USDT Update – Bearish Structure Confirmed📉 SUI/USDT Update – Bearish Structure Confirmed
Yesterday, we shared a bearish outlook for SUI from the $4.2 region, anticipating a potential rejection from that key supply zone. Since then, price has respected the resistance and shown early signs of weakness.
Here’s what we’re seeing now:
🔹 Elliott Wave Perspective
Price seems to be completing a Wave C of a larger Zigzag structure.
This upward move is forming an Ending Diagonal (ED)—a terminal pattern usually marking exhaustion.
The diagonal is weakening near the top of a multi-month resistance, adding confluence to the bearish setup.
A break below the lower channel could trigger a deeper correction toward:
$3.35 (first support)
$3.00 (major structural demand)
🔸 ICT / Smart Money Outlook
Price swept the liquidity above previous highs (~$4.2), creating a buy-side liquidity grab.
A Bearish Order Block is active around $4.05–$4.15.
📊 Analysis by @CryptoPilotAI
🔔 Follow for more smart market updates.
Signs of a Market Structure Shift are emerging as lower highs begin forming.
Watch for price to revisit the Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $3.65–$3.35, a likely target for rebalancing inefficiency.
✅ Conclusion
Unless bulls reclaim $4.15 with strength, this looks like a distribution phase with downside continuation expected.
📌 Short Bias Active – Waiting for channel break and confirmation.
Major U.S. News Ahead—Will EURUSD Pivot?Good morning, my friends 👋
Here’s my EURUSD market analysis 📉
Currently, the pair is in a downtrend. I expect this downward move to end around 1.14899 or 1.14536, where a potential buying opportunity may emerge. I personally plan to enter a buy position once price reaches those zones 💼
Also, keep an eye on major U.S. economic reports being released today—they could trigger increased volatility 🔔
Every like you send is a huge source of motivation for me to keep sharing high-quality analysis 🙏 Thanks to everyone supporting the channel 💙
NextGenTraders81 NAS short swingI have my sell limit set at 23,500 as there is alot of sell limits set there, also at 23,550 hence the SL is above that zone.
I am pretty sure the position will be set on BE before it tries to return to these highs, how long it will take to hit TP, who knows.. a correction within the channel is due after numerous ATHs.
If you will follow, take partials on the way !
Good luck :)
Has the Bleeding STOPPED?Yesterday witnessed a great deal of unidirectional push on major USD crosses. The EURUSD was not an exception. With the DXY strengthening for the most yesterday, the ripple effect on all USD crosses was bound to happen.
We were looking at the market for the most yesterday, trying to find a potential reversal point. While it seemed unclear, we were still able to narrow our probability into a rather slim perspective and spectrum.
Looking at the market right now, i will say that our reverssal should begin to show up any time soon.
I can already see reversals on some other USD crosses.
Price on the EURUSD is currently at a critical zone. Even though not an anticipated zone, price can see some reversal in that zone.
We still wait to see clear sign and confirmation of the reversal on the EURUSD, but for now, we still keep fingers crossed
Petronet Long Setup: Wave C Ends at 1.382 of A–Breakout + RetestThis is a trend continuation setup on Petronet, based on Elliott Wave correction structure, Fibonacci confluence, and price action confirmation.
The stock recently completed a clean A-B-C corrective pattern, with Wave C terminating around the 1.382 extension of Wave A — a common Fibonacci exhaustion zone, often signaling the end of corrections.
Key factors supporting the long bias:
🌀 Wave C = 1.382 of Wave A, indicating potential completion of the correction.
🔍 A Break of Structure (BOS) was observed, confirming the shift in trend.
📈 Importantly, the BOS was marked by a strong bullish candle, adding conviction to the move.
🔁 Entry was planned on the retest of the broken resistance, which is now acting as support.
📊 Structure suggests we may now be entering a new impulse wave upward.
Risk Management Plan:
🛑 Stop-loss just below the Wave C low / support zone.
🎯 Targeting a minimum 1:2 Risk-to-Reward, aligned with the next impulse projection.
This trade favors confirmation over anticipation — by waiting for BOS + bullish candle + retest, the entry is more structurally reliable.
CAN SILVER RETURN TO ITS HISTORIC HIGH OF $50?In the world of precious metals, gold has already broken its all-time high in recent months, supported by solid fundamentals. Another precious metal is now catching up: silver. Unlike platinum and palladium, silver today combines all the necessary ingredients to revisit its historic peak. Its bullish potential stems from a unique blend of market volume, correlation with gold, supportive fundamentals, and favorable technical conditions. Silver isn’t just "gold’s little brother": it is currently the only precious metal with both the technical and structural setup to aim once again for the mythical $50 mark, last reached in 2011.
1) After GOLD, silver is the most liquid precious metal and has the highest positive correlation
The first key factor is liquidity. On the precious metals market, gold remains the clear leader, with hundreds of billions of dollars traded daily. Silver comes second, far ahead of platinum and palladium, with around $5 billion in daily volume. This level of activity is crucial—adequate liquidity allows speculative and institutional flows to fully express themselves. Conversely, the low volumes of platinum and palladium limit their upside, as their markets are too narrow to support the kind of momentum seen in gold or silver.
The second strength of silver lies in its natural correlation with gold. Historically, the two metals move in sync. This behavioral alignment is reflected in a correlation coefficient close to 1. Platinum and palladium, by contrast, respond to industrial demand, particularly from the auto sector and emissions technology. Silver, however, blends industrial uses (jewelry, electronics, solar panels, etc.) with a monetary and financial role similar to gold. This dual nature makes silver a hybrid asset, with both ETF-driven financial demand and jewelry-like industrial demand.
2) Technically, the SILVER/GOLD ratio remains in a short-term uptrend from a long-term support
Technical analysis reinforces this fundamental outlook. While gold appears to be losing steam after hitting $3,500, silver still shows a medium-term bullish setup—even though short-term corrections are always possible. The gold/silver ratio, historically useful to detect when silver outperforms gold, also suggests that silver is poised for further gains. Silver’s long-term trend remains bullish as long as the $34–$35 support zone holds. The $50 mark is the natural technical target of this trend.
The following chart shows the gold/silver ratio and indicates that silver is likely to outperform gold through year-end:
And here is the monthly candlestick chart of spot silver:
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EURJPY Eyes New Highs After Pullback?What I see!
EURJPY Technical Outlook –
EURJPY remains in a strong uptrend and recently tapped into buy-side liquidity at 173.89, which now marks the All-Time High (ATH). After a brief rejection from that level, price is currently showing signs of a healthy pullback.
I’m observing the 170.00–171.00 zone, which aligns with previous demand. If price continues to respect this area, the overall bullish structure remains intact, with potential for a move back toward (and possibly beyond) the ATH.
A sustained break below 170.00 could indicate room for a deeper pullback, potentially toward the 168.00s, which would be a key area to monitor.
This analysis is shared for educational and discussion purposes only.
Ethereum at a Critical Crossroad: Will $4,000 Finally Break ?Ethereum is once again approaching the psychologically significant $4,000 resistance level, a high-timeframe barrier that has rejected price on multiple occasions. As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap pushes higher, traders are closely watching for signs of a breakout—or another range-bound rejection.
Ethereum has entered a decisive phase, with price action now testing the upper boundary of a long-standing trading range. After multiple failed attempts to breach the $4,000 mark, ETH is consolidating just below this level, creating an environment filled with both opportunity and risk. Whether Ethereum can break through or gets rejected again will shape its mid- to long-term outlook.
Key Technical Points:
- Major Resistance at $4,000: A psychologically important level and long-time price cap on high timeframes
- Defined Trading Range: ETH has remained range-bound between $1,300 and $4,000 for an extended period
- Critical Candle Closes Needed: Breakout requires strong daily or weekly closes above $4,000 to confirm
Ethereum’s price is hovering just under the $4,000 resistance zone, which has acted as a ceiling for price action since early 2022. From a high time frame perspective, ETH has been range-bound, trading between $1,300 as the range low and $4,000 as the range high. Each visit to this upper boundary has led to a rejection and a subsequent rotation back toward mid-range or lower levels.
Now, with momentum building and bullish sentiment returning across the crypto market, Ethereum finds itself at another pivotal moment. The key technical requirement for a confirmed breakout will be a decisive daily or weekly close above the $4,000 level. Without this confirmation, any temporary push above the resistance could result in a fakeout and trap late long entries.
Volume behavior around this zone remains mixed. While there is some bullish buildup in recent sessions, there has not yet been a significant influx in volume to confirm conviction from buyers. This aligns with the historical pattern of Ethereum trading at resistance before eventually pulling back, suggesting caution is still warranted.
However, should ETH close decisively above $4,000 and turn this level into support, it would mark the first major break of this range since its inception. This would likely trigger a wave of bullish momentum, possibly sending Ethereum to new yearly highs, with $4,500–$5,000 being the next logical resistance zones based on historical price pivots and Fibonacci extensions.
What to Expect in the Coming Price Action
Ethereum’s price action is currently neutral-bullish but hinges entirely on its interaction with the $4,000 resistance. A confirmed breakout could usher in a powerful rally toward new highs, while another rejection would likely continue the long-standing range between $1,300 and $4,000. Until a decisive move occurs, traders should remain cautious and reactive rather than overly anticipatory.
Elliott Wave Update: EURUSD Favors Weakness In To Support ZoneThe EURUSD favors upside in 3 swings from September-2022 low & should extend towards 1.1929 or higher against 1.13.2025 low. In 4-hour, it favors double correction lower from 7.01.2025 high to correct 5.12.2025 low. It favors short term pullback into 1.1512 – 1.1340 area in 7 swing pullbacks before continue rally in cycle from 1.13.2025 low. Above January-2025 low, it ended (1) at 1.0533 high, (2) at 1.0210 low, (3) at 1.1573 high, (4) at 1.1065 low & favors higher in (5). Within 4-hour, it placed 1 at 1.1830 high & correcting in 2 as double three correction before two more highs. It placed ((w)) at 1.1559 low in 3 swings zigzag correction. In ((w)), it ended (a) at 1.1659 low, (b) at 1.1714 high & (c) at 1.1559 low of 7.16.2025. Later, it unfolded expanded flat correction in ((x)) that ended at 1.1788 high of 7.24.2025. Within ((x)), it placed (a) at 1.1721 high, (b) at 1.1554 low & (c) in 5 swings at 1.1788 high.
Currently, it favors downside in ((y)) of 2 & expect sideways to lower in to support zone. It favors zigzag correction lower in ((y)) to finish 2 into extreme area before resume rally. Short term, it favors downside in (a) of ((y)) since 7.24.2025 high. In (a), it placed i at 1.1700 low, ii at 1.1771 high & favors downside in iii of (a) towards 1.1576 – 1.1569 area before bounce in iv. It expects a bounce soon in iv followed by one more push lower in v to finish (a) in 5 swings. Wave (a) of ((w)) should end near 1.1578 before bounce in (b) in 3 or 7 swings connector. The bounce in (b) should fail below 1.1788 high to extend lower in (c) into 1.1512 – 1.1340 area to finish correction. It should find next support into that area to rally higher as the part of daily sequence targeting 1.1929 or higher. We like to buy in to that area for next leg higher or at least 3 swings bounce. If it breaks above 7.01.2025 high, it expects two more highs to finish cycle from January-2025 before next pullback start.
TCS: ABC Correction Complete – New Impulse Wave in FocusTCS appears to have completed a classic Elliott Wave structure, consisting of an initial 5-wave impulsive move followed by an A-B-C corrective phase. The recent price action suggests the correction has likely ended, and a new bullish impulsive move is beginning.
Fundamental trigger:
Interestingly, just a few days ago, TCS announced strong quarterly results — reporting solid profits and declaring a dividend. Despite the positive news, the stock reacted negatively and moved lower. This could have been a classic case of "good news, bad reaction" — possibly a stop-loss hunt or smart money absorbing liquidity before the next leg up.
Key technical points:
✅ Wave 1-2-3-4-5 clearly visible, forming the initial impulse.
✅ A-B-C correction appears complete with price reversing from a key support zone.
📈 Bullish structure forming; watching for confirmation with a break above recent highs.
🔍 Technicals and sentiment suggest renewed upside potential, despite short-term shakeouts.
Invalidation below recent swing low (Beginning of 1st Impulsive).
This setup offers a potential long opportunity with a favorable risk-reward
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Gold RetracementGold has been leading massively since the COVID Recession driven by all time highs of inflation and low rates across the board it also traded the best in the last 18 months and so, being almost vertical in its upward movement. And so as the old testaments of time have taught us nothing lasts, Gold didn't yet have a corrective move, and one should suspect that the 2000 levels- not so long ago used to be ATH- will be revisited some time in the 12 months period ahead.
The 3400 level is holding strong but there yet to be signs of weakness on the XAUUSD pair, 3400-3600 USD/Oz is a good as any level top sell expect pumping and dumping as high as 3800 for the FOMO buyers to be drawn in by the big whales and the Short sellers to be Margined out.
This opportunity is as good as any and the market never runs out of these opportunities so trade safely don't get greedy and live below your means.
Stay safe out there
OANDA:XAUUSD
BULLISH - Short Term Breakout - Inverted Head and Shoulder Regarding the daily price forecast from July 28, 2025 (Monday), through August 1, 2025 (Friday), the projections are derived from the bull flag continuation pattern, cross-referenced with aggregated analyses from recent market data, technical indicators (such as RSI and MACD showing neutral-to-bullish momentum), on-chain metrics (indicating accumulation at $115,000–$117,000), and a distribution of expert predictions. These include short-term consolidation with a potential dip for liquidity clearance, followed by a breakout, aligning with historical post-halving cycles and institutional inflows. Note that cryptocurrency prices are inherently volatile and influenced by factors such as Federal Open Market Committee outcomes, ETF flows, and macroeconomic events; these forecasts are speculative and not financial advice.
• July 28, 2025 (Monday): Anticipated consolidation within the flag channel amid low weekend volume. Expected range: $116,800–$118,500. Key targets: Support at $116,700 (lower flag boundary, potential entry for accumulation); resistance at $118,500 (upper flag line, breakout watch level). Average closing prediction: $117,800, reflecting neutral sentiment with minor downside risk if global markets weaken.   
• July 29, 2025 (Tuesday): Possible test of lower support amid early-week volatility, potentially sweeping liquidity before rebounding. Expected range: $116,000–$119,000. Key targets: Downside at $116,000 (critical on-chain accumulation zone); upside at $119,000 (initial breakout threshold). Average closing prediction: $117,500, with a 40% probability of a brief dip followed by stabilization.   
• July 30, 2025 (Wednesday): Breakout attempt likely if support holds, driven by mid-week momentum and potential dovish policy signals. Expected range: $117,500–$120,500. Key targets: Support at $117,000 (mid-channel level); resistance at $120,000 (psychological barrier and prior high). Average closing prediction: $118,900, assuming bullish confirmation above $118,500.   
• July 31, 2025 (Thursday): Extension of upward movement post-breakout, with volume potentially increasing. Expected range: $118,500–$122,000. Key targets: Support at $118,000 (retest of breakout level); resistance at $121,000 (flagpole projection start). Average closing prediction: $120,200, supported by technical alignment and ETF inflow trends.   
• August 1, 2025 (Friday): Momentum continuation toward weekly close, with risk of profit-taking. Expected range: $119,500–$123,500. Key targets: Support at $119,000 (new floor post-breakout); resistance at $123,000 (extended target based on pattern measurement). Average closing prediction: $121,800, aligning with broader bullish forecasts for early August.   
Gold repeatedly tested lows. Will it break through?On Monday, the Asian market opened low and rose in the early trading. In the European trading, it rose to around 3345. The European trading was under pressure and fluctuated. The US trading began to accelerate its decline, and the lowest point reached around 3302. Then it continued to fluctuate in the range of 3300-3320.
On July 27, the United States and the European Union reached a framework trade agreement; the agreement reduced market concerns about the global economic recession, promoted the attractiveness of risky assets, and boosted the stock market and the US dollar. Although Trump has repeatedly pressured for a substantial interest rate cut, the market has strong expectations for a September interest rate cut. The current expectation of maintaining a stable interest rate dominates the market, coupled with the strength of the US dollar, which puts gold prices under downward pressure in the short term.
Gold opened low in the early trading on Monday and then rebounded to recover the losses, but then fell below the low again, and the daily line closed in the negative, and now it has formed a four-day negative decline. MA5 and 10-day moving averages form a dead cross, and there is a downward turn.
The focus on the upper side is around Monday's high of 3345, which is also near the current position of MA5, 20, and 30-day moving averages. Below this position, gold is weak; if it breaks upward, it is necessary to prevent the possibility of a rebound correction.
The lower support first focuses on the 3300 integer mark; secondly, focus on the area around 3285-3275.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3320-3300;
Long near 3300, stop loss 3290, profit range 3320-3340.
Before the release of US data on Tuesday, you can maintain this operation strategy; after the data is released, adjust the strategy based on the impact of the data.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 29, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
U.S.–EU Trade Deal Sparks Optimism
The U.S. and EU signed a trade framework allowing a 15% tariff rate on most EU imports, averting harsher penalties. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh record highs, supported by upbeat tech earnings sentiment—Tesla advanced on a new $16.5B AI chip deal with Samsung—while U.S.–China trade talks resume in Stockholm.
Fed Likely to Hold Rates; Political Pressure Mounts
The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% at the July 29–30 FOMC meeting. Chair Powell faces growing political pressure from President Trump to cut rates and concerns about central bank independence remain elevated.
Trade Talks Extension to Avoid Tariff Hike Deadline
The August 1 tariff deadline looms. Markets are watching to see if trade deals with China, Canada, and the EU extend the pause or risk new tariffs. Volume in AI/chip stocks and industrials reflects sensitivity to trade developments.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, July 29
FOMC Meeting Begins — All eyes on Fed rate decision and updated projections.
GDP (Advance Q2 Estimate) — Expected around +1.9% on signs of economic rebound.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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