EURUSD Targeting 1.19?Euro is in a bullish trend from the past months, and doesn't look like it want to stop now. Euro is strong and dollar is always more weak. I expect a continuation of the rally here, targeting 1.19 in the coming months, probably till September/October. A good buy point for swing traders
Wave Analysis
POL PROBABLY IN WAVE '' A '' OR " B " - LONGThis is in continuation of our ongoing tracking of POL wave structure.
Prices went below our buying zone of 475 touching 465, taking a cautious approach as the overall market was down, we did not buy at 475-465 area and waited for a bounce up for confirmation. Now the bounce has been significant and if our wave count is correct then we are most probably in wave 4 of an impulse wave of A or B.
This trade setup remains valid until 505 is taken out.
Trade setup:
Entry price: 545 - 530
Stop loss: 504
Targets: 575 - 590
Let see how this plays, Good Luck!
Disclaimer: The information presented in this wave analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial or trading advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Outlook – 12 June 2025Current Price: ~$3,373 (intraday) –
Gold is holding near recent highs after a sharp rally. Bullish momentum has improved markedly, fueled in part by favorable fundamentals (soft US CPI and geopolitical tensions lifting safe-haven demand)
On the charts, the short-term trend is upward, with buyers firmly in control following a breakout above prior resistance.
4H Trend & Key Levels
4H chart highlighting break of structure, demand (green) and supply (red) zones, and key intraday levels. Note the major demand zone that held around 3,214 (green) and the supply zone near 3,284 (red) which was a focal resistance. The 50% retracement of the prior day’s range (blue line near 3,274) acted as intraday resistance in that earlier session
Such annotations show where institutional activity likely set support (demand) and resistance (supply) areas. On the 4-hour chart, gold’s momentum is strongly bullish. The recent surge to 3375 pushed price above its 10-day moving average and widened the upper Bollinger Bands on both H1 and H4 – signs of a powerful uptrend. This came after gold cleared a major resistance around the $3,350 zone, which had capped prices earlier. With that barrier broken, the next upside target on the higher time frame is the $3,400 level (a notable psychological and technical hurdle)
In fact, it can be projected that a clean breakout above the ~3,380/3,390 zone could open the path toward $3,403 and even $3,430 in extension
Reflecting the next supply areas or Fibonacci extension targets above. Support levels on the 4H are stepping up as the trend rises. Previously, $3,320 (the last day’s high in late May) turned from resistance into support after the breakout. Now, immediate support is seen around $3,345–3,350, which corresponds to the top of the recent consolidation and roughly the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this week’s rally
Below that, the $3,330–3,335 zone (around the 61.8% retracement of the rally) is a secondary intraday support area
These levels also align with prior demand zones and the previous day’s lows, making them likely zones where buyers might step in on dips. Overall, as long as gold holds above the mid-$3,300s, the 4H bias remains bullish. The 4H structure shows higher highs and higher lows, and technical signals (price above short-term EMAs and an improving RSI) reinforce the short-term bullish outlook
Educational Note: In an uptrend, old resistance often becomes new support. Here $3,350 was a major resistance in the past and could serve as support if prices pull back. Traders also watch Fibonacci retracement levels within the up-move for potential bounce points – for gold, the 35-50% retracement zone of the latest swing (approximately $3,350 down to $3,330) is viewed as an attractive “buy-the-dip” area intraday.
On the 1-hour chart, gold has been oscillating upward within a rising channel. After each push higher, it has formed brief consolidations or bull flags that resolved to the upside.
For example, after the strong push to ~3375, price coiled in a classic bull flag pattern, hinting at momentum building for another breakout. This pattern of consolidation after a rally shows healthy bullish behavior – buyers pausing before continuing the move. Higher lows (HL) and higher highs (HH) are clearly present, indicating a steady uptrend structure on the 1H
In fact, gold’s price action has been “taking out liquidity then taking out highs and creating new highs,” leaving no sign of bear control so far. This means each time the price dips and grabs some stop-loss liquidity from weak longs, it quickly reverses and surges to a fresh peak – a hallmark of a strong trend supported by larger players. From an SMC perspective, we can spot where institutional traders may be active. Recently, gold retested a major demand zone in the low $3,300s and rocketed higher. Specifically, price dipped to about $3,297 (just below a prior support), which appears to have been a liquidity grab (fake-out) below the obvious support level
Smart money often drives price briefly below such a level to trigger stop-losses, then buys into that liquidity. Indeed, a strong bullish rejection off $3,297-3,300 occurred, indicating aggressive buying (accumulation) by big players at that historical support
This confirmed a solid demand zone, and bulls defended it vigorously – a clear sign that institutional demand underpins that area. After the fake-out and bounce, gold quickly resumed making higher lows, confirming the uptrend’s resumption. Now, the focus shifts to the overhead supply zone. Gold is trading just below $3,380–3,390, a zone that previously acted as major intraday resistance.
In past attempts, price sharply sold off from this area, suggesting it’s a pocket of supply (sell orders) or profit-taking for institutions. This makes $3,380-$3,390 a key decision point: if bullish momentum is strong enough to drive a clean break through this supply, we could see a swift move higher (as mentioned, targets in the low $3,400s become viable)
However, if gold struggles and prints bearish signals (e.g. aggressive wick rejections or a change in character to lower lows on 15m/1H) near 3380-3390, it may indicate that sellers are defending this zone again, potentially causing a pullback. Traders are watching closely to see if smart money will cap the price here or let it run. It’s worth noting that intraday liquidity has built up around certain levels. Minor equal highs around $3,375-3,377 were taken out earlier (as gold hit a weekly high of ~$3,377) ,and now liquidity might reside just above $3,390 (at buy stops of breakout traders) and below $3,340 (sell stops of longs). The path of least resistance intraday appears upward unless those lower support levels start breaking. As long as gold remains inside this rising structure, the bias is to buy dips rather than sell rallies. Only a clear break below the $3,337–3,340 support (recent range floor) would hint at a short-term trend shift down. Until then, bulls are in charge. Educational Note: Order blocks and supply/demand zones are areas where price saw a sharp move, indicating institutional orders. In gold’s case, an H1 demand block near $3,300 (origin of the recent rally) is such an area – price dipped into it and then launched higher
Conversely, the $3,380-$3,390 area is a supply zone from which price fell previously.
Watching price behavior at these zones (e.g. strong rejection vs. breakthrough) gives clues: a heavy rejection implies continued range or reversal, while a breakthrough suggests a new leg of trend.
Trade Setups
Buy on Dip (Bullish Setup):
If gold retraces into the $3,345–3,355 support zone, consider a long entry near ~$3,350 (a key Fibonacci support & prior breakout level)
A suggested stop-loss is just below $3,335 (to stay under the 61.8% retracement and recent swing low). Target the $3,375 area for partial profits, and $3,385–3,390 if momentum continues. This buy-on-dips approach aligns with the prevailing uptrend – as one analyst noted, “Gold below 3350 is an opportunity to buy on dips”
(Rationale: You’re buying at support in an uptrend, aiming for a retest of the highs.)
Sell Near Resistance (Bearish Setup):
If gold rallies toward the $3,390–3,400 zone but shows rejection (stalling candles or a bearish reversal pattern) at that resistance, one can consider a short entry around ~$3,395. Place a tight stop-loss above $3,405 (just beyond the major resistance). Target a pullback to about $3,370 first, and $3,350 on an extended drop. This trade fades a possible near-term top in case the supply zone holds. For instance, a suggested plan from another analyst was to “sell around 3397–3400” with stops above 3409, looking for a move back to the mid-$3,300s
(Rationale: You’re selling at an identified supply zone, expecting a short-term correction.)
Breakout Scenario:
For traders who prefer momentum plays, watch $3,380 on the upside and $3,340 on the downside. A 1H candle close beyond $3,380 with strong volume would confirm a breakout – you could then target ~$3,405 and above (trail stops as it goes)
Conversely, a drop below $3,340 might signal a bearish intraday reversal, opening downside targets near $3,315 and $3,300
If trading the breakout, ensure confirmation (no fake-outs) – wait for a retest if possible, and then ride the move. (This scenario is only for when price definitively exits the current range.)
Remember: The intraday trend is bullish, so lean toward long setups unless key supports break. Keep it simple – trade the price action you see. Gold can be volatile, so it's wise to use stop losses and not over-leverage. Happy trading! 📈✨
RELIANCE- MOTA BHAI ALWAYS MAKES MONEY FOR YOU!!!🔍 CHART ANALYSIS (Weekly Timeframe)
🟩 Trend & Price Structure:
Long-term uptrend is intact (since 2020), though it underwent a correction starting in 2022.
Price has respected a trendline support (dotted black), but recently broke below it and is now attempting a reclaim.
There’s a clear breakout from a falling wedge (pink trendline), which is a bullish reversal pattern.
📊 Key Levels:
Level Significance
₹1111 Historical support (marked as 3-year SL)
₹1300 New proposed stoploss post-breakout
₹1376 Previous resistance zone (now near breakout zone)
₹1608 Recent high (multi-month resistance)
₹2101 Fibonacci 1.618 extension target
₹2060 1.618 fib extension (confirmed by label)
📈 Fibonacci Analysis:
Fibonacci extension from previous impulse wave projects 1.618 at ~₹2060–₹2101.
If ₹1608 is crossed with volume, next rally toward ₹2060–2100 looks probable.
🔁 RSI (Momentum):
RSI (14) = 62.02 – momentum is bullish but not overbought.
No bearish divergence visible; RSI supports bullish continuation.
🔔 Volume Observation:
Last few bullish candles show healthy volume participation, especially in breakout areas.
Indicates smart money interest returning.
✅ SUMMARY OF INTERPRETATION:
✅ Breakout from falling wedge – positive signal.
✅ Reclaiming broken long-term trendline.
✅ New stoploss of ₹1300 is reasonable for medium-term.
✅ ₹1111 stoploss is ideal for long-term investor (3+ years), marking major structural low.
🚀 Potential target = ₹2100+ based on Fibonacci projection.
ACX/USDTKey Level Zone: 0.1820 - 0.1850
LMT v2.0 detected.
The setup looks promising—price previously trended upward with rising volume and momentum, then retested this zone cleanly. This presents an excellent reward-to-risk opportunity if momentum continues to align.
Introducing LMT (Levels & Momentum Trading)
- Over the past 3 years, I’ve refined my approach to focus more sharply on the single most important element in any trade: the KEY LEVEL.
- While HMT (High Momentum Trading) served me well—combining trend, momentum, volume, and structure across multiple timeframes—I realized that consistently identifying and respecting these critical price zones is what truly separates good trades from great ones.
- That insight led to the evolution of HMT into LMT – Levels & Momentum Trading.
Why the Change? (From HMT to LMT)
Switching from High Momentum Trading (HMT) to Levels & Momentum Trading (LMT) improves precision, risk control, and confidence by:
- Clearer Entries & Stops: Defined key levels make it easier to plan entries, stop-losses, and position sizing—no more guesswork.
- Better Signal Quality: Momentum is now always checked against a support or resistance zone—if it aligns, it's a stronger setup.
- Improved Reward-to-Risk: All trades are anchored to key levels, making it easier to calculate and manage risk effectively.
- Stronger Confidence: With clear invalidation points beyond key levels, it's easier to trust the plan and stay disciplined—even in tough markets.
Whenever I share a signal, it’s because:
- A high‐probability key level has been identified on a higher timeframe.
- Lower‐timeframe momentum, market structure and volume suggest continuation or reversal is imminent.
- The reward‐to‐risk (based on that key level) meets my criteria for a disciplined entry.
***Please note that conducting a comprehensive analysis on a single timeframe chart can be quite challenging and sometimes confusing. I appreciate your understanding of the effort involved.
Important Note: The Role of Key Levels
- Holding a key level zone: If price respects the key level zone, momentum often carries the trend in the expected direction. That’s when we look to enter, with stop-loss placed just beyond the zone with some buffer.
- Breaking a key level zone: A definitive break signals a potential stop‐out for trend traders. For reversal traders, it’s a cue to consider switching direction—price often retests broken zones as new support or resistance.
My Trading Rules (Unchanged)
Risk Management
- Maximum risk per trade: 2.5%
- Leverage: 5x
Exit Strategy / Profit Taking
- Sell at least 70% on the 3rd wave up (LTF Wave 5).
- Typically sell 50% during a high‐volume spike.
- Move stop‐loss to breakeven once the trade achieves a 1.5:1 R:R.
- Exit at breakeven if momentum fades or divergence appears.
The market is highly dynamic and constantly changing. LMT signals and target profit (TP) levels are based on the current price and movement, but market conditions can shift instantly, so it is crucial to remain adaptable and follow the market's movement.
If you find this signal/analysis meaningful, kindly like and share it.
Thank you for your support~
Sharing this with love!
From HMT to LMT: A Brief Version History
HM Signal :
Date: 17/08/2023
- Early concept identifying high momentum pullbacks within strong uptrends
- Triggered after a prior wave up with rising volume and momentum
- Focused on healthy retracements into support for optimal reward-to-risk setups
HMT v1.0:
Date: 18/10/2024
- Initial release of the High Momentum Trading framework
- Combined multi-timeframe trend, volume, and momentum analysis.
- Focused on identifying strong trending moves high momentum
HMT v2.0:
Date: 17/12/2024
- Major update to the Momentum indicator
- Reduced false signals from inaccurate momentum detection
- New screener with improved accuracy and fewer signals
HMT v3.0:
Date: 23/12/2024
- Added liquidity factor to enhance trend continuation
- Improved potential for momentum-based plays
- Increased winning probability by reducing entries during peaks
HMT v3.1:
Date: 31/12/2024
- Enhanced entry confirmation for improved reward-to-risk ratios
HMT v4.0:
Date: 05/01/2025
- Incorporated buying and selling pressure in lower timeframes to enhance the probability of trending moves while optimizing entry timing and scaling
HMT v4.1:
Date: 06/01/2025
- Enhanced take-profit (TP) target by incorporating market structure analysis
HMT v5 :
Date: 23/01/2025
- Refined wave analysis for trending conditions
- Incorporated lower timeframe (LTF) momentum to strengthen trend reliability
- Re-aligned and re-balanced entry conditions for improved accuracy
HMT v6 :
Date : 15/02/2025
- Integrated strong accumulation activity into in-depth wave analysis
HMT v7 :
Date : 20/03/2025
- Refined wave analysis along with accumulation and market sentiment
HMT v8 :
Date : 16/04/2025
- Fully restructured strategy logic
HMT v8.1 :
Date : 18/04/2025
- Refined Take Profit (TP) logic to be more conservative for improved win consistency
LMT v1.0 :
Date : 06/06/2025
- Rebranded to emphasize key levels + momentum as the core framework
LMT v2.0
Date: 11/06/2025
- Fully restructured lower timeframe (LTF) momentum logic
- Enhanced entry timing for better precision and alignment with key levels
$BTC Rejected at Key Resistance – Global War Concerns Pressure P
Bitcoin failed to break above the $110K resistance, facing sharp rejection for the third time. Rising global war tensions have triggered risk-off sentiment across markets, and Bitcoin is now showing signs of a deeper pullback.
🔸 Key Support Zone at 99K – 100K:
This zone is the last strong support holding the bullish structure. A break below it could trigger a larger correction. Eyes on this zone for possible bounce or breakdown.
🔸 Upside Target: 110k+ (Invalidated)
Unless BTC reclaims $110K with strong momentum, upside targets are currently paused.
🔸 Risk Level at 99K:
A daily close below $99K would confirm bearish momentum and open room toward $90K next.
🔸 Outlooks:
Stay cautious due to macro instability (global war risk).
🔹 If price bounces near $99K → short-term long trades possible.
🔹 If it breaks below $99K → prepare for continuation to $90K.
Avoid heavy exposure until the trend clears.
Bitcoin Short: Wave CAfter a 6-days move up after we have hit our target in the previous analysis, I think Bitcoin has completed what I think to be the Wave B and is already on the Wave C run down.
Over in this video, I expressed my personal viewpoint that Bitcoin is not a hedge against the dollar and that it is actually a risk-on/off product more similar to the equities markets like the S&P500. I recommend that anyone who is interested to perform a study on the correlation and beta Bitcoin.
I suggested that the reason why it more closely related to the equity markets is due to it's deep integration within the financial sector (e.g. ETFs, structured products from banks).
Given that I think that the equity markets are primed to crash soon, I think that Bitcoin will follow suit.
Good luck!
AI Chip Stocks NVDA and AMD Showing 5 Wave RiseNASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AMD are both showing 5 wave rise in weekly chart after a correction in WXY. I haven't checked but other AI related stocks also might be doing something similar.
Once the 5 waves are over, we can expect some correction but the 5-wave rise post a correction typically signals fresh uptrend so it might be worth keeping an eye on these stocks. Waiting till retracement/correction of this rise is complete.
Bitcoin 4 hr. corrective wave 4 might be done!1). Huge Volume! 2). Banks are Buying! 3). Bonds are up! 4). Dollar weakness!
3 days ago
Note
1). Banks bought it up to $125K as revealed on our gold-colored indicator. 2). There's a lot of upward thrust on the first 5 wave Sequence, which typically indicates a forecast of huge gains! 3). Often, the first sequence repeats the rhythm of the move! 4). Also, Trump said "BUY", since that's what he's etc. likely doing, and the more liquidity the better!
BTC/USD: 12 JUNE, 2025 - IS THE SECOND WAVE UNFOLDING?Conclusion: The 1-grey wave may have just completed at the 111,965 high, and the 2-grey wave is unfolding to push lower, targeting the low around 95,872.01.
I counted a five-wave within the 1-grey wave, which suggests that it may have ended, and we are entering the 2-grey wave. This decline could target around the 95,572 low in the form of a Zigzag labeled a,b,c))-navy.
While the price must remain below 110,617 to keep this Bearish view valid.
Aggressive Trend Trade 1HAggressive Trend Trade 1H
- short trend
+ volumed T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume 2Sp+
Daily Trend
+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction"
Monthly CounterTrend
"- short balance
+ expanding ICE
+ support level
+ unsuccessful biggest volume manipulation"
Yearly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
- below exhaustion volume?
- below SOS"
Will add more when 5M, 1H or 1D will show entry point
CRUDE OIL: 12 JUNE, 2025 - BOTTOM AND TAKE OFF!?Conclusion: The ABC)-orange correction may have just completed, and a five-wave is pushing much higher, targeting the nearest target at the high around 94.19 or 130.50.
Details: Since the high of 130.50, a decline with A,B,C)-orange has unfolded as a Zigzag. I counted a five-wave within the A)-orange, and a triangle within the B)-orange, and finally the C)-orange has completed as a five-wave. So, perhaps that ABC has ended with convincing evidence.
So crude oil is likely to rise in the medium term, even though the alternative scenarios with relatively high probability in another development also show increasing bullish weight. And it is aiming for the nearest target at 94.19. While price must always remain above 55.30 to keep the Bullish market view valid.
MSFT Surges to Record High, Sustaining Bullish MomentumMicrosoft (MSFT) has demonstrated remarkable resilience, fully recovering from losses incurred during the tariff war sell-off. The stock has even achieved a new all-time high. This performance underscores the stock’s persistent bullish trend. The low recorded on April 7, 2025 likely serves as a robust support level during future pullbacks. The rally from this low is unfolding as a classic five-wave impulse pattern, indicative of strong upward momentum, with wave (3) nearing completion.
From the April 7 low, wave (1) concluded at 394.65, followed by a pullback in wave (2) that bottomed at 355.67. Wave (3) has since extended higher, exhibiting its own internal impulse structure. Within wave (3), wave 1 peaked at 380.39, with wave 2 dipping to 375.19. The stock then surged in wave 3 to 459.58, followed by a wave 4 retracement ending at 448.91. A detailed 45-minute chart below highlights the final leg wave 5, which further subdivides into a lesser-degree impulse. From wave 4, wave ((i)) reached 463 and wave ((ii)) corrected to 454. Wave ((iii)) climbed to 473.43, and wave ((iv)) dipped to 466.96.
MSFT may experience a slight further upside to complete wave ((v)) of 5 of (3). However, a larger-degree pullback in wave (4) is anticipated soon, setting the stage for one final upward push to conclude the five-wave rally from the April 7 low. This structured advance reinforces Microsoft’s bullish outlook, with key support levels likely to hold firm.
GST Bottoming Out? Potential B-Wave 30X-70X Incoming! LSE:GST is showing signs of a potential Wave A bottom on the macro scale, and could be entering its Wave B retracement phase.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
After an extended downtrend, GST appears to have found solid support at recent lows.
If this marks the end of Wave A, then Wave B could be underway — historically a strong bounce in corrective wave structures.
Fibonacci retracement from the previous high to current low targets the 0.5 to 0.618 retracement zone — between $0.23 and $0.57.
📈 That’s a jaw-dropping 3000% to 7000% upside potential from current levels — or a 30x to 70x move if this plays out.
🔥 Why Eyes Are on GST:
✅ Small market cap = explosive potential
✅ Listed on major exchanges, including Coinbase
✅ A simple technical setup with massive asymmetric risk/reward
This setup is not for the faint of heart, but for high-risk speculators, this could be a textbook B-wave pump...and if history repeats itself, it could resemble the kind of parabolic retracement we saw in SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:XCN ’s B-wave.
🧠 Watch Levels:
Support: $0.006–$0.007 (bottoming structure)
Resistance: $0.23 (0.5 fib), $0.57 (0.618 fib)
📌 NFA – Do your own research.
#GST #Altcoins #CryptoTrading #WaveAnalysis #FibRetracement #BWave #30xAltcoin #CryptoGems
12 june Nifty50 brekout and Breakdown leval
🔼 Call Option (CE) Buy Zones
Above 25,170 → Positive trade view begins
Buy CE if 15m candle sustains above this level.
Target 25,240 → 25,280 → 25,322
SL: below 25,126 (Negative trade zone begins)
Above 25,240 → Strong bullish momentum zone
Aggressive CE buying opportunity.
Possible target: 25,280 → 25,322+ (Short covering possible)
Above 25,322 → Short covering rally zone
Strong CE momentum, consider trailing SL to protect profits.
🔽 Put Option (PE) Buy Zones
Below 25,170 → Negative trade view starts
Buy PE if 15m candle closes below this level.
Target: 25,126 → 25,070
Below 25,070 → Opening support break
More downside expected.
Target: 24,982 → 24,882
Below 24,882 → Unwinding zone
PE strong zone, deep downside risk.
Target: 24,800 and below
Safe for swing PE traders
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💱 Dollar Slides on Trade Truce Hopes & Fed Outlook
The U.S. dollar dropped 0.4%—its lowest level since April 22—after President Trump signaled flexibility on a July 8 trade deadline and U.S.–China talks showed renewed progress, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts
📊 S&P Shiller CAPE Hints at Overvaluation Risk
Stocks and bonds rallied following rebound, but valuation metrics flash caution: the S&P 500 now sits in the 94th percentile of Shiller CAPE, and equity risk premium has dropped to zero. Analysts warn these levels often precede corrections
🛢️ Oil Holds at Seven-Week Highs
Oil prices remain near seven-week highs (~$66–67/barrel), supported by gradual OPEC+ output increases and hopes that easing trade tensions will aid demand
📈 CPI Cools Again, Bonds Climb
U.S. consumer inflation rose just 0.1% in May (2.4% YoY), easing expectations for tighter Fed policy. Consequently, Treasury yields softened and bond markets outperformed equities
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, June 12:
8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May)
An early gauge of inflation at the wholesale level—may reinforce the cooling trend seen in CPI.
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
Weekly updates on unemployment filings. Key to monitor for labor-market tightening or softening.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is for educational and informational purposes only—it does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
GBP/USD Short Play – Anticipating a Smooth 87-Pip DropTime of Analysis: 9:15 PM (Central US) | Current Price: 1.35736
Key Levels: 1.35268 (First Target) → 1.34918 (Final Target) | Retracement Spike: 1.35500 (NY Session)
A Strategic Short Ahead of London & NY Session Weakness
Based on observed price action and intermarket dynamics, GBP/USD is primed for a controlled descent over the next 12–18 hours, with Tokyo/Sydney sessions laying the groundwork for London’s bearish momentum. Here’s the breakdown:
1. Current Setup & Immediate Catalysts
Bearish Continuation Pattern: The pair has shown subtle rejection near 1.35800 (key intraday resistance), with weakening upward momentum. The initial 30-pip drop from the evening high suggests sellers are testing the waters.
Tokyo/Sydney Session Role: These sessions often consolidate or extend late NY moves. With USD strength creeping in (e.g., Treasury yields firming, risk-off sentiment in Asia), a slow grind toward 1.35268 is likely before London opens.
2. London Session: The Accelerator
European Liquidity Dive: London traders will likely exploit the lack of bullish defense, pushing GBP/USD toward 1.34918. Key factors:
Divergence with EUR: If EUR/GBP rallies, GBP/USD suffers compounded selling.
UK Data Lull: No major catalysts = technicals dominate.
Order Flow Clue: The drop to 1.35268 may trigger stop-loss cascades below 1.35500, fueling the next leg down.
3. New York Session: The Trap Spike
Classic NY Fakeout: After a steady decline, NY traders often "test" liquidity with a quick spike (likely 1.35500) before resuming the trend. This would:
Trap late shorts chasing the breakdown.
Provide a optimal entry for bears targeting sub-1.34900.
Fed Shadow: Any USD strength from hawkish Fed whispers (even without news) could cap rebounds.
Risk Considerations
Bullish Threat: A surprise London headline (e.g., BoE hike chatter) could stall the move, but the technical structure favors downside.
Stop Placement: Initial stops above 1.35950 (pre-9:15 PM swing high) for early entries. Adjust to 1.35780 if entering post-Tokyo open.
-------------------------------------
Final Call
"87 pips or bust." This is a high-probability, slow-burn short with defined targets. Tokyo/Sydney sets the table, London serves the main course, and NY adds the dessert spike before the next leg down.
Projected Timeline:
Next 6h (Tokyo/Sydney): Drop to 1.35268.
London Open (3AM CT): Acceleration to 1.34918.
NY Open (7AM CT): Spike to 1.35500, then resumption of selling.
Trade smart, trade ruthless.