JPY/USD Rising Wedge Pattern Formed | Retest & Move To Target🧠 Overview:
The JPY/USD pair has recently exhibited a Rising Wedge Pattern, a classic technical formation known for its bearish implications. This pattern has developed over several days of bullish price action, showing diminishing bullish momentum as price action narrows.
The wedge is forming right beneath a minor resistance zone, increasing the likelihood of a potential rejection and breakdown. This setup is particularly noteworthy due to the multiple layers of confluence supporting the bearish bias.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
📌 1. Rising Wedge Formation
A rising wedge is often considered a bearish reversal pattern, especially after a strong uptrend.
As seen on the chart, price is respecting both the upper and lower bounds of the wedge, but with a loss of bullish momentum, indicated by shallower highs.
This tightening price action hints at indecision and likely exhaustion from buyers.
📌 2. Minor Resistance Zone
Price has approached a previous structure high where strong selling interest was seen before.
This zone has already rejected price once, acting as a supply area.
The repeated failure to break above reinforces the strength of this resistance.
📌 3. SR Interchange (Support Turned Resistance)
Below the current price action, there's a well-defined Support-Resistance Flip Zone (SR Interchange).
Previously a strong demand area, this zone may now act as a new resistance if price breaks below and retests it.
This is a key area where sellers are likely to step in again.
📌 4. Break & Retest Structure
As price begins to break the lower wedge boundary, the next move we anticipate is a retest of the broken wedge trendline.
This retest, if confirmed by rejection candles (such as bearish engulfing or pin bars), would present an ideal entry opportunity for short positions.
🎯 Trade Plan & Price Levels:
💼 Bearish Scenario
Entry Point: Wait for a successful retest of the broken wedge line (confirmation via price action: bearish engulfing or pin bar).
Stop Loss: Above the recent swing high or above the wedge resistance (~0.006920).
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 0.006845 – First key support zone.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 0.006807 – Next major support / liquidity zone.
🧩 Why This Setup Makes Sense:
✅ Multiple Confluences:
Bearish wedge structure = reversal pattern.
Resistance zone = psychological and technical rejection.
SR Interchange = confirms institutional selling interest.
Retest confirmation = high-probability entry.
Target zones = based on recent support levels and market structure.
🛑 Risk Management:
Risk-to-reward ratio favors short positions if executed after retest.
Avoid jumping in early — wait for confirmation.
Proper stop loss is key to avoiding false breakouts or premature entries.
📊 Summary:
This is a textbook bearish setup with strong technical backing. The rising wedge pattern, when combined with resistance and retest zones, offers a great shorting opportunity — assuming price respects the pattern. Patience will be crucial here; wait for the break, the retest, and the confirmation before entering.
🔔 What to Watch:
Price behavior near the lower wedge boundary.
Reaction on retest — do bulls defend or do bears take over?
Confirmation from volume or price action (engulfing candles, rejection wicks).
Any fundamental catalysts or USD-related news.
✍️ Final Thoughts:
This is a well-structured short setup on the JPY/USD 1H chart. Wedges often deceive with temporary breakouts before reversing hard — so discipline, timing, and confirmation will be key. If the market respects this technical structure, we could see a clean drop toward our projected targets.
