Weeklyforecast
👀WEEKLY OUTLOOK Jan, 29 - Feb, 2👀Let's see how the price developed during previous week, compare with previous outlook and think what's possible during next week
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USD Index ( DXY, DX1! Fututres )... Wait & See!USD Index is in an interesting position, and could go either way. Let the market tip it's hand on Monday, and then trade USD pairs!
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AUDUSD ( M6A1! Futures ) Weekly Outlook..... BEARISHI was surprised by the strength of the USD last week, and it lead to a flawed view of the AUD market. The market was weaker than expected, and has potentially turned bearish.
Let the market unfold on Monday, and wait for clarity.
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GOLD (XAUUSD, GC1! ).... Wait and See!Gold is in the middle of a range. Not a good place to enter a trade!
Let the market unfold on Monday. Let it tip its hand, then make your move.
Look for FVGs to form as price breaks the range. This is the signal to prepare to enter this market.
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DXY ( USD Index ) Weekly Outlook.... BEARISHMay profits be upon you.
DXY is now consolidating in between a bullish FVG and an bearish FVG.
But it has been bearish, with downward momentum.
I suspect it will continue this way, as price has found INTERNAL LQ in the bearish FVG, and is now seeking the EXTERNAL LQ at the lows.
I believe the low at 100.320 is the DOL (Draw On Liquidity).
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May profits be upon you.
EURO Futures (EURUSD) Weekly Outlook... BULLISH1. Daily Swing structure is bearish, after this clear break of market structure.
2. The internal structure is bullish, as price pulls back into premium.
The reaction to supply is significant. It potentially indicates the end of the retracement, and
price now seeking external LQ at the swing low.
3. I am monitoring the FVG above closely. Should price trade through it, it would indicate price
has bearish momentum, and strengthening the idea that the pullback is over.
Should this bullish PD Array hold, price could potentially make a HH, and head to the
premium old high.
Light Crude Oil... BULLISHThis is a longer term view. It may take a couple of weeks to play out.
The Breaker Block + FVG pose a strong bullish indication that price
may head higher.
The BB represents the turning point in the trend, from a bearish to potentially
bullish market. Not to mention price is going from an ERL to an IRL, potentially.
NQ (NASDAQ) Weekly Outlook... Near Term BULLISHBullish next week.... then turning BEARISH.
Price turned bullish after the bullish BOS. However, the bias turned bearish after the ERL, and the IRL is now sought.
There was also the formation of a -BB and a -FVG. Should price
return to it, the expectation is it will be respected, and price will head down from premium to
discount prices.
USD Index Weekly Outlook... BEARISHWith CPI Data coming Thursday, price may consolidated within the range of Friday's candle and the FVG, before coming down.
IRL > ERL
I am looking for price to go from an interior raid on LQ to an external raid on LQ.
I'm also looking for bearish PD Arrays to be respected... like the -FVG price is currently in.
But who knows what the news will bring.
For Week 2023/11/20-24, A slight bearish move for XAUUSDConsidering the relatively muted weekend activity and the ongoing weakening of the USD, it's reasonable to anticipate a slight bearish correction for XAUUSD in the coming week. The absence of a significant weekend push and the prevailing market conditions suggest the potential for downward movement. However, it is essential to closely monitor any shifts in global factors, market sentiment, and economic indicators, as these could influence the trajectory of XAUUSD.
XAUUSD POSSIBLE MOVE WEEKLY CHART The US Dollar maintained its positive tone throughout the first half of the day but changed course after the American opening. As a result, XAU/USD bounced from a fresh weekly low of $1,944.71 to trade above the $1,960 mark. Financial markets maintain cautious optimism amid hopes central banks are done with monetary tightening, despite policymakers insisting on keeping the door open for additional rate hikes.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivered some encouraging words on Thursday, as he said the economy is “remarkably” healthy, noting real progress on inflation. He also added that the job is not yet done, as inflation remains high. Finally, he said that any downturn might be less severe than in past recessions and that the labor market is now more balanced.
In a separate event, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that the full effects of the recent policy are yet to be seen. Later in the day, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled “Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy” at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and could comment on monetary policy.
EU outlook for this weekI have a lot on this week outside of the markets. This is my thoughts on EU which follow on from last week's idea. I'll be looking for M15 zones to hook in and ride price action when time allows. I'll update below when I'm at the charts and see anything interesting so be sure to subscribe to this idea, below.
Gold weekly forecast 23-27.10After two strong weeks, gold may slow down, starting with a retracement. The most likely scenario is that the price will go down, break the channel and fool the traders with a false breakout. But the price broke very strong reaction are, which we will observe later. I do not think gold will break the 4H manipulation that I have marked, but most likely it will use this area as support to continue higher.
We will take a closer look at the price action to see what we can expect.
Macroeconomics
J.P. delivered a hawkish speech, warning of higher interest rates. This could lead to at least temporary bearish movements in gold.
The war with Israel is still very active. We have seen gold rally aggressively with the start of this war.
Employment is falling, or more accurately, it is not moving. Last reading of unemployment rate was unchanged. Which gives room for the FED to go further with IR.
The latest CPI showed that inflation is still high, most likely because of oil prices. Although the core CPI showed a significant drop in inflation, it seems to me that this was not enough evidence for the FED.
There are definitely bearish factors with the hawkish stance, but the war is a geopolitical risk, that does not happen very often. In my opinion, this risk will push the "safe haven" metal higher.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly
Gold is forming a very strong bullish manipulation. If this month closes as such a strong FU, we can be sure that the all-time high will be broken.
Weekly
Gold has just broken through a strong weekly manipulation area. Most likely, the price will come back for a retracement and continue on its bullish path.
Daily
I would say that gold is now in the daily reaction area where it has often ranged in the past. That makes, this week we may see a sideways price action.
Benchmark
Although the price action has been very strong and gold has been strong against other currencies, the benchmark indices are showing underlying weakness. This should give us a clue that we may see sideways price action this week.
COT Reports
Last week the pros were bearish, but it seems they have already sync with the banks.
US Yields
Yields are rising, but so is gold. It tells us that the big players are probably buying because of the war.
XAUUSD vs GDX
I do not like this divergence. History has shown that we should be cautious when there is such a divergence. BUT last year, during the strong rally in Gold I, such phenomena also happened.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is also very bullish but has failed to break through the highs. These two could form a SMT divergence, suggesting at least a slowdown in the current rally.
Elliot Wave
I am not sure if this is the right count as the extension is larger than normal, but for now I will focus on the bullish count.
Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns
The volume on the recent low was large and did not suggest a reversal. Nevertheless, the war came and the economic events pushed gold higher.
The current price action appears to be an accumulation - a classic Wyckoff pattern.
Momentum
We saw what happened last time when the price reached the band and became oversold. Right now gold is at the top of the band.
The RSI has entered the overbought zone.
NIFTY 50: Weekly Outlook: October Week 3, 2023Weekly Review
Nifty 50 gained 0.5% in the last week, hence closing at 19,751. The index has been very reactive to the past few macro events like Middle East warzone situations, Positive cues on Retail Inflation at 5.03% and poor guidance from IT companies on the growth front. Although on the technical front, levels have been in accordance with our view for the last two weeks gap opening and closing will cause a significant issue when we look back on these levels in future months.
Week Ahead:
On Daily charts key support for the week to come stands at 19,600 (make or break) for the rally to stay intact. The upcoming week will see a revision of resistance levels at 19,796-19,884 is a crucial tradezone, a break above this will see Nifty rally to 20,000 levels once again. In case a breakdown below 19,600 happens then 19,481,19,376 and 19,326-19230 will hold the fort.
Caution: Be cautious of sectors and stocks you trade as the market and scripts will be very reactive to Q2 FY24 earnings as much has not been factored in the market.
*Disclaimer*: I am not a SEBI registered analyst and hence the above market outlook is for educational study and research purposes only. In no way do I endorse this opinion to take a trade or for any investments in markets in any form by any Participant. Be a responsible investor with proper risk management and keep learning as a true focus.
Figure 1: Nifty 50 Weekly Forecast chart
Nifty 50: Meltdown @19,600Week Ahead:
On Daily charts, the index has lost all its momentum even though the fall has slown down but it has left huge runaway gaps between daily candles. Ideally such situation woul need to trade within crucial candles range and be mindfull of taking trades when Index trades near the gaps, as the saying goes, most of the time index always closes on gaps.
From levels perspective, Nifty is still vulnerable to fall around 19,600. Key levels aroun here are 19,502-19,595 and much on lower side are 19,386 , 19,326-19,230. If the markt settles around 19,600 then a move beyond 19,795 will make the fog clear around the botton of this last week’s meltdown.