USOIL told you exactly how the market is going to moveHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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On September 13 I posted an idea explaining how the USOIL was close to a breakout and that you should keep your eyes on the market for the next few days, and posted 2 Scenarios of how the market is most likely to move.
Looking at the market today we can see that the first Scenario has happened exactly as I predicted.
Over the past few weeks, oil prices have continued to proceed along an upward trajectory as commodity shortages remain a key concern for global economies. noticed that the market has brokeout the main resistance zone located between 70.40 - 70.63 and started to gain momentum that drove the price up hitting the 76.43 level yesterday, That is almost a 9% increase in 2 weeks alone
Possible Scenarios for the market :
Scenario 1 :
The market seems to be nearing the first support line located at 73.76, if the price was able to drop below and close then we could be seeing a small Bearish movement that could lead the market down to the second support at 72.89 or even below back to the main support zone at 70.40 - 70.63, where a bounce back in price will probably happen leading the price back up again to its current level.
Scenario 2 :
The Bulls are trying to gain control over the market today in hope of staying away from the support level and going back up near the first resistance level at 76.18 where a battle over control will happen and the winner will determine the outcome movement of the market, If the Bears were to win then we might see a drop to the first support at 73.76 where a bounce most likely will happen.
If the Bulls were to win then we will see an increase in price that could lead the market to the 77.73 or even the 80.74 level in the next period of time.
Technical indicators show :
1) The market is above the 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign)
2) The RSI is at 61.31 showing Great strength in the market, With no divergence found between the market and the indicator
3) The MACD is above the 0 line indicating that the market is in a Bullish state, With a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line
Daily Support and Resistance :
support Resistance
1) 73.76 1) 76.18
2) 72.89 2) 77.73
3) 71.34 3) 78.60
Weekly Support and Resistance :
support Resistance
1) 71.06 1) 75.90
2) 67.93 2) 77.61
3) 66.22 3) 80.74
Fundamental point of view :
The price of Brent crude oil continues to soar, touching highs last seen three years ago as demand outstrips supply. The continued rollback of covid-19 restrictions in economies around the globe is driving demand ever higher with supply struggling to keep up. OPEC+ will meet next – October 4 – and they may need to increase production further to help alleviate the market shortage. Brent crude touched $80/bbl. earlier and may now set its sights on the October 2018 high at $86.65/bbl. if the OPEC+ leaves production at its levels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will also release its World Oil Outlook next week and this now takes on increased significance as prices rally hard. According to Dailyfx
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
