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Xauusdanalysis

XAUUSD: Accumulation in process,Waiting for Bullish DistributionHello, Today, we will analyse the key points of each significant move. Following the price’s all-time high at $3500, it experienced a sharp decline and failed to maintain that level. A substantial 2400 pips would have resulted in significant losses for many accounts. Initially, it was perceived as a minor correction, with the expectation of further price appreciation. However, this assumption proved incorrect. After reaching an even higher peak, the price invariably undergoes a more substantial correction. At 3260, substantial bullish volume surged into the market, necessitated by the presence of a fair value gap. Subsequently, the price experienced a decline, reflecting the prevailing bearish trend, which favoured the bears. However, at 3200, a pivotal level representing a discounted price point, bull volume surged. This powerful bullish impulse propelled the price to 3432, ultimately confirming the bullish trend. AB=CD there recurring pattern emerged weekly. When the price reached the 3432 level as a fair value gap, the CD pattern commenced. 

AB=CDTheHeyIndeed, we have identified a recurring pattern. It appears to be an equal move in any direction, and it has manifested precisely as anticipated. We were aware that the price would reject at 3120, and it did so accordingly. Currently, the market is in our favour. Upon market opening, it exhibited a positive gap, propelling the price to 3450. However, it subsequently declined, reaching 3384. Presently, we find ourselves in the accumulation phase, poised for distribution. This distribution is anticipated to be substantial, potentially leading to another record high, potentially reaching 3650. Moving forward, the price could continue towards our target from its current position. Alternatively, there exists a possibility that it may drain the sell-side liquidity and reverse from 3360-3370. Our take-profit levels are set at 3450, 3490, 3520, and finally, 3600. When entering the market, it is advisable to employ a short time frame. It is important to note that this analysis is merely our opinion, and market conditions may deviate from expectations. We extend our best wishes for success and safe trading. If you wish to demonstrate your support, you may consider liking, commenting, or sharing this analysis with others. Sincerely, Team Setupsfx_
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
31
GOLD's rise has been steady, decisive move aheadGold is the focus, plain and simple. We’re in an ascending channel, and price is respecting that structure with precision, higher highs, and no major signs of exhaustion yet. Recently a clear resistance level was just taken out, and now I am watching for the classic retest. That breakout? A big deal, and a strong clue as well. If that zone holds as support, that’s a green light for a potential upmove toward 3,460 which matches the top of the channel. But if it fails, we could expect a slight pullback, it might mean we could be in for a healthy dip before the next move. Bottom line: follow the structure, and don’t force trades here without confirmation first
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by TrendDiva
31
XAUUSD Long Setup – Retest of Broken Structure & Safe-Haven FlowGold has pulled back to retest a strong former resistance (now support) zone around $3,385–$3,390. This level aligns with a previous breakout and marks the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair is now showing bullish structure with back-to-back continuation patterns (bull flags), suggesting further upside potential. Given escalating geopolitical risk (Iran-Israel strikes, Trump-led evacuation urgency), slowing Fed cut expectations, and softening inflation-adjusted yields, gold remains in demand. 🔍 Technical Analysis: Structure: Higher highs and higher lows maintained. Support Zone: $3,385–$3,390 (retest zone) – bulls stepping back in. Targets: TP1: $3,451 TP2: $3,470 TP3: $3,495 (new local high) Stop Loss: Below $3,369 (recent low) Pattern Context: Bull flags continue to form and break bullish – reinforcing trend. 🧠 Fundamental Context (June 17): Bullish Drivers: Middle East escalation → safe haven bid surging (Iran missile launches, Israeli retaliation, US political chaos). Fed on pause → real yields are subdued, favoring non-yielding assets like gold. Convexity & bond volatility rising → investors hedging with hard assets (confirmed via CME sentiment reports). Risks: Sudden peace deal or ceasefire. Unexpected US CPI spike → reawakens rate hike fears. 📅 Key Events to Watch: Fed speeches (confirmation of dovish tone) Any ceasefire or major diplomatic development Oil movement (energy risk spillovers)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ultreosforex
3
XAUUSD - Overtrading and Revenge Trading - Trading PsychologyFrom Chaos to Control: Mastering the Art of Balanced Trading on Gold Trading gold is exhilarating. It’s fast, volatile, emotional — and addictive. But what most traders don’t realize is this: it’s not the market killing your account. It’s you, pressing buy and sell like it’s a video game. Over-trading is the silent account killer. It doesn’t scream. It whispers: “Just one more entry.” “Maybe this one will finally run.” “Let me scalp this quick pullback…” Before you know it, you’ve taken 12 trades by noon and your brain’s fried. 🧠1. Why Over-Trading Happens: The Dopamine Delusion Over-trading isn’t just a strategy flaw. It’s chemical. Your brain rewards anticipation of profit — not just actual wins. So every setup, every near-miss, every “maybe I missed the move” spikes your dopamine. That’s why you keep clicking. Not because you saw a valid setup. Because your brain craves the rush of imagining one. This is why traders enter in zones they never marked, skip confirmation, and rush into impulsive entries. The market didn’t give a signal. Your nervous system did. 📉2. The Real Damage: Not Just Losing Trades — Losing Discipline Over-trading ruins more than your account. It ruins your edge. • You stop following your plan • You chase liquidity like a gambler • You get shaken out of clean zones • You increase risk, just to “make it back faster” And worst of all? It feels productive. But profits don’t come from activity. They come from precision. If you don’t reflect about your actions, you repeat the bad ones. 💸3. The Financial Fallout: Over-Trading Blows Up Accounts Over-trading nukes your capital. • One extra trade becomes five • SL gets wider or invisible because your entry was rushed • Lot size gets heavier to “speed up” recovery • Now you’re emotional, and revenge mode kicks in... You’re not compounding anymore. You’re compounding mistakes. This is how smart traders blow up challenge accounts. This is how funded accounts get revoked. This is how small accounts die before they grow. Over-trading is a trap with a $0 exit. ✅4. Tactical Fixes: Trade Smart, Live Smarter ✔️ Set a daily trade cap. Limit yourself to 2–3 trades. If you keep entering, it’s not analysis — it’s compulsion. ✔️ Split your daily risk. Risking 0.3% total? That doesn’t mean 0.3% per trade. Break it down, or you’ll break your account. ✔️ Set alerts — not alarms in your brain. Stop watching every candle like it’s a soap opera. Set TradingView alerts at your key zones and walk away. The market doesn’t move faster just because you're glued to the screen. ✔️ Take real breaks — not just chart scrolling. Go outside. Call someone or send time with family and friends. Eat good food. Most traders come home from work and go right back into charts like it’s their second shift. That’s not discipline. That’s burnout. ✔️ Build a life that doesn't revolve around entries. The more you lose, the more you trade. The more you trade, the more you spiral. It’s just like alcohol, drugs, gambling. Dopamine up. Reality down. And the worst part? It looks like hard work from the outside — but it feels like slow death inside. 🧨5. From Over-Trading to Revenge Mode If over-trading is the first crack in your foundation, revenge trading is the wrecking ball. And it never starts from logic. It starts from pain. You had a clean setup. You got stopped out — maybe twice. Now you're frustrated, humiliated… embarrassed. You’re no longer reacting to price. You’re reacting to loss. Revenge trading doesn’t feel chaotic in the moment. It feels righteous. You convince yourself, “I just need one win to get it all back.” 😵‍💫6. The Emotional Spiral Traders Don’t Talk About Over-trading and revenge trading are addictive. You’re showing up to work. You’re posting charts. You’re pretending it’s fine. But deep down? You're wrecked. Emotionally, financially, and mentally. This is the side of trading no one glamorizes. The isolation. The loneliness. The pressure. The self-blame. This is how people burn out — not from one bad week. But from trying to trade their way out of pain. ⚠️ Final Word Over-trading is not a badge of hustle. It’s the first step toward emotional dependence on the market. And that’s the most expensive habit you’ll ever form. If you don’t catch it early, you’ll keep blaming the market, the spread, the broker… when the real damage was done by your own reaction. The market doesn’t owe you anything. So be kind to yourself and build discipline, you will win in the long run. If this lesson helped you today and brought you more clarity: Drop a 🚀 and follow us✅ for more published ideas.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
3
Gold - The final resistance breakout!Gold - TVC:GOLD - prepares a final rally: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Over the past 12 months, Gold rallied more than +70%. However the past three months clearly rejected a major horizontal resistance. But price action on the smaller timeframe remains incredibly bullish. Therefore an all time high breakout will most likely follow. Levels to watch: $3.500 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:GOLDLong
by basictradingtv
2
Will gold continue to rise after a pullback?As for gold: the trend of daily, weekly and monthly cycles has remained unchanged, and the bulls remain unchanged; and the weekly line has started to rise continuously, and there is a high probability that it will gradually break upward; the daily line temporarily maintains 3245-3293 as the two low points of support at the bottom, and 3382-3452 as the two top high points of resistance to form an upward channel. The upper track is currently suppressed. Although Iran and Iran are still fighting fiercely over the weekend, the market has digested a lot, because today's Asian and European sessions did not continue the strong attack, but there was a wave of continuous declines; but this does not mean that it will fall back too much, and risk aversion will still be triggered at any time. Besides, leaving aside the news, the technical form is also bullish, and the highs and lows are gradually rising. The secondary high point was also broken, and there is a high probability of testing 3500 this week; For today, due to the weakness of the European session and the rebound before and after the US session, pay attention to the 618 resistance 3436 and other pressures to go bearish first, and then continue to choose bullish when the two supports of 3404-3390 below are touched and stabilized; if the price cannot give the support position after 22:00 to the early morning, it is not ruled out that it will stabilize in advance; Specific operation plan: It is recommended to go long and bullish at 3410, add more positions at 3408, target 3430-3440, stop loss 3400; short near 3443 above, add more positions at 3448, target 3430-3420, stop loss 3455.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BarnettWolf
3
Middle East tensions rise; gold may hit new highs next weekThe Middle East situation has continued to escalate over the weekend, indicating that gold may witness a rally at Monday's opening. On Friday morning, risk aversion surged rapidly, pushing the gold price to around 3,444, followed by a pullback. During the European session, the price quickly retreated to around 3,408 before rebounding—our strategy to go long near 3,410 at the time proved profitable. In the U.S. session, gold mounted a second rally, peaking at around 3,446 before entering a pullback and consolidation phase. However, from a fundamental perspective, the overall trend remains bullish; thus, buying on dips remains the primary trading approach. From a 4-hour technical view, immediate support lies in the 3,405–15 range, with key support at the recent resistance-turned-support zone near 3,375–80. When gold pulls back, traders should focus on longing near these levels. The critical bullish pivot for short-term traders has shifted up to the 3,345–50 zone; as long as gold holds above this level on the daily time frame, the dip-buying strategy should be maintained. XAUUSD buy@3405-3415 tp:3340-3360 Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EvanField
10
Will gold continue to rise in the new week?Analyzing from the weekly level, the price of gold is supported by the support level of 3258-60. From the mid-line perspective, it is still in the mid-line bull market, and the price will only be under further pressure if it breaks the weekly support. Observing from the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance again last Wednesday, and continued to soar after the breakthrough. The current price is testing the monthly high, and the subsequent gains and losses of the previous high are the key. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, as time goes by, we need to pay attention to the support of 3413-3407. This position is the key watershed of the short-term trend. At the same time, according to the one-hour level, the price has a short-term downward adjustment, so don't chase more for the time being, and focus on the subsequent retracement to the four-hour support before further rising. Short-term low-to-long thinking, focus on highs after pulling up.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BarnettWolf
2
XAUUSD: Analysis June 16Gold has a lot of momentum to increase and could head towards testing the all-time high around 3500 as there are too many risks emerging, from geopolitical developments to interest rate outlook, and tariffs. Major conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, trade war between the US and the rest of the world, ... are all sudden risk support that makes gold likely to surge in the short term. Gold, after increasing around 3450 this morning, is currently correcting down. But overall, the uptrend with gold is still solid after breaking the downtrend channel. However, we should avoid buying in strong corrections. The support area around 3400 will be the ideal place for us to BUY today. And the resistance area 3440 - 3445 will be where we SELL.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Stone_Haven
2
XAUUSD Bouncing back to 3450?3380.27, 3383.94 and 3386.08 three daily consecutively candlestick patter with continuted series of higher low formed the daily support. Previous daily candle just closed at support with an ATR of 1.1ATR, which is quite large in the opposite direction of the major trend while the price is trading above 10ema in the daily. In 4h there is also 3 ATR ( overall) bearish move is spotted giving a high probability for this market to bounce back to the daily resistance to the major direction of the trend. We have a buy position at this level and will keep you posted for more updates!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ForexWizard01
Gold’s uptrend is clear, controlled, and far from overGold remains the centerpiece of bullish momentum, trading within a well-defined ascending channel. Price continues to respect the structure, printing higher highs and higher lows, with no signs of exhaustion thus far. A key resistance level was recently broken and has now flipped into support. Price is currently retesting this zone — a classic move in trending markets. If this area holds, it would validate the breakout and open the path for a potential move toward $3,460, aligning with the channel’s upper boundary. As long as price stays above this retested support, the bullish outlook remains intact. A failure to hold, however, would invalidate the setup and shift focus to the lower channel boundary as the next area of interest. Reminder: Always wait for confirmation before entering and apply strict risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jessica_Paul
13
Middle East Tensions Intertwined with Fed Rate Cut SpeculationThe Middle East situation remains tense ⚠️, and with rumors of a Fed rate cut emerging 👂, gold is likely to see significant volatility in the near term 📈📉. Due to the war, we still favor going long at lower levels 💹. During the current U.S. trading session, another pullback may occur—we need to wait for the correction before continuing to go long ⏳ ⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Buy@ 3365 - 3375 🚀 TP 3400 - 3410 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Sovereign_1
Gold Price Analysis June 17The D1 candle shows profit-taking by the sellers, pushing the price back below 3400. In the current context, the pullback is only short-term and has not confirmed the reversal, but long-term Buy signals can still be noticed at important support zones. Today, there are many price zones that can BUY Gold, so wait for confirmation before placing an order. Gold is heading towards the first support around 3375-3373. This is also the Breakout zone. If it breaks out, Gold will go to 3343-3341 to be able to BUY (pay attention to sell break). If there is a sweep to 3343 and then bounces and closes above the 3373 breakout zone, it confirms that the uptrend will continue strongly in the near future. The next BUY support zone to pay attention to is 3322-3320 and the 3305-3303 zone. The BUY order target is always pushed further back to 3415 or 3443.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold (XAUUSD) – Demand Zone Holding, Silver Leading BreakoutGold has respected its demand zone near $3,367–$3,382 and is attempting to bounce higher. Importantly, Silver (XAGUSD in pink overlay) is leading the upside move, having broken out cleanly above $37.00 and still climbing. This confirms the bullish momentum across precious metals. Geopolitical tensions, dovish Fed commentary, and risk-off market conditions continue to favor a move toward $3,451, $3,471, and possibly $3,495. 🔍 Technical Breakdown (4H) Support Zone: $3,367–$3,382 (retest of broken resistance) Bullish Structure: Rising lows, trendline holds, and higher timeframe support remains intact Projected Targets: 🎯 TP1: $3,451 (recent high) 🎯 TP2: $3,471 (key extension) 🎯 TP3: $3,495 (top of range) Stop Loss: Below $3,351 (invalidates demand structure) 🪙 Silver (XAGUSD) Overlay Insight: Currently at $37.11+, showing leadership in the breakout. Suggests gold will likely follow through — watch for Gold catching up. 🧠 Macro & Fundamental Context (June 17) Bullish Drivers: 🔥 Ongoing Middle East war escalation (Iran-Israel, US troop buildup) 🏦 Dovish Fed tone, soft retail sales, rate cuts expected from Sept 🧾 Silver strength confirming demand across metals Risks: ☮️ Unexpected ceasefire headlines could cause knee-jerk pullbacks 📈 Hot inflation data or hawkish Fed rhetoric could pressure upside 📅 Key Events to Watch: FOMC members' speeches this week US Core PCE inflation print War headline velocity — particularly involving shipping or direct US-Iran confrontation 🧭 Strategy Suggestion: Tactical Buy on Rejection Wick from current demand zone Watch Silver momentum — if it breaks $37.50+, gold likely catches up fast Consider scaling out around $3,451–$3,471 with final target near $3,495
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ultreosforex
After breaking KEY DAY yesterday, it is very likely ATH in weekGold prices are being directly affected by the Israel-Iran tensions, the risk of trade conflicts due to the new US tariff policy, and concerns about slowing global economic growth. However, gold prices suddenly fell in the context of improving risk appetite of investors as they get used to the "new normal". Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, commented that if this rally starts to lose momentum, it could be a double top pattern for gold. Giving advice to investors, according to Mr. Pavilonis, they should start considering reducing their gold position at this time if they missed the opportunity to take profits at $3,509. When gold is peaking, investors see other markets moving higher, such as silver, platinum and palladium. Best regards, StarrOne !!!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by StarrOne
1
Gold Hits PRZ with RD-! Time for Bears to Take Over?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) attacked the Resistance zone ($3,445-$3,406) once again, forming an Ending Diagonal at the top of the structure. Although price reached the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , the presence of Regular Divergence (RD-) between the last two peaks could indicate the weakening of bullish momentum . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , we can clearly count a completed 5-wave structure , with an Ending Diagonal pattern . This supports the idea of a major correction starting soon . I expect Gold to attack the lower lines of Ending Diagonal , and if it breaks, it could drop to at least $3,333 . The Second Target could be the Support zone ($3,451-$3,120) . Do you think Gold will make a new All-Time High(ATH) again in this rally?! Note: Stop Loss (SL) = $3,463 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
1
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsGold showed a pullback after hitting a high yesterday, with a daily decline of nearly 70 USD. The daily candlestick pattern completely engulfed the previous day's gains and closed bearish. Combined with the current signals of geopolitical tensions, today's market is expected to be dominated by broad-range consolidation. From the 4-hour cycle perspective, the price broke below the middle Bollinger Band with consecutive bearish candles last night and continued to decline after being suppressed in the early morning, with technicals pointing to a consolidative and bearish pattern. The key pivot level today is at 3,405: if the market effectively stabilizes above this level, the upper resistance will test 3,420 and 3,430 in sequence; conversely, if the suppression at 3,405 holds, the price is likely to repeatedly test the support at 3,380 and further dip to the 3,370-3,360 zone. It is recommended to wait for the decline momentum to clarify before initiating long positions, maintaining an overall range-trading strategy. XAUUSD buy@3375-3380 tp:3390-3400-3420 Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EvanField
Citigroup predicts a decline in gold prices? Blacklisted?Information summary: Citigroup analysts predict that by the second half of 2026, gold will fall back to around $2,500-2,700, with a significant reduction in investment demand, improved global economic growth prospects, and a decline in the factors that led to the rise in gold prices due to the Fed's interest rate cut. My point of view is: blacklist Citigroup. Since last year, they have predicted that the highest point of gold prices will exceed $4,000, and they have constantly changed the forecast point in the middle, and now they even point out that the price will fall below $3,000, which is completely unreliable. Market analysis: In the early Asian session, it also rose strongly, and it seems that there is a lot of upward momentum, but $3,405 is the pressure position for the top and bottom conversion, and the rise in the morning is a lure. At this position, it fell rapidly, reaching a minimum of around $3,373. The Asian market seemed to rebound strongly in the morning, but the MA5 and MA10 moving averages showed a downward trend. This kind of market cannot wait for a decline to go long, but it is also a repeated wash-out shock. The first focus below is the 3375-3370 area, followed by 3360. The short-term trend is still dominated by wash-out shocks. The short-term important focus position is around 3405. 3405 is used as the dividing point between long and short positions. A short-selling strategy is carried out near this position. Pay attention to the 3375-3360 area below.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid_1
Gold trading strategy June 17D1 candle shows profit taking by sellers pushing the price back below 3400. In the current context, the pullback is only short-term and has not confirmed the reversal, but long-term Buy signals can still be noticed at important support zones. Today, there are many price zones that can BUY Gold, so wait for confirmation before placing an order. Gold is heading towards the first support around 3375-3373 (this zone has just reacted 100 pips). This is also the Breakout zone. If it breaks this zone, Gold will reach 3343-3341 before it can BUY. Note that to sell break 3373 and the SELL resistance point must wait for 3415 and the daily resistance 3443-3445 If there is a sweep to 3343 and bounces and closes above the 3373 breakout zone, it confirms that the uptrend will continue strongly in the near future. The next BUY support zone to pay attention to is 3322-3320 and the 3305-3303 zone. The BUY target is always pushed further back to 3415 or to the peak around 3443. SUPPORT: 3373;3342;3322;3304 RESISTANCE: 3415;3443
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
XAUUSD: The beginning of range trading.Last week, I perfectly predicted the sharp rise in the market. At the beginning of this week, XAUUSD reached a high of 3451, which is the front pressure position. Due to the cooling of risk aversion in the international market, the New York market fell back to 3373 on Monday. XAUUSD did experience a typical "news-driven callback", and the analysis of technical and fundamental aspects is very critical. The following is a professional analysis and operation suggestions for the current market: Key points and technical structure 1. Pressure level: 3450 area - The previous high pressure is effective. This is the resonance resistance area of ​​the upper track of the daily level channel + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, and the demand for long profit-taking is concentrated. 2. Support level: 3370-3380 area - Currently falling back to 3373, here is: - 50-day moving average dynamic support - 4-hour chart previous low level support platform - Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level - If the daily closing is above 3380, the technical structure is still a healthy correction. News-driven logic - Negative factors: Geopolitical situation and peace talks ➜ Risk aversion cools down ➜ Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset decreases. - Potential risks: The progress of peace talks may be repeated (such as the situation between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine). If the negotiations fail, safe-haven buying will return quickly. Need to keep an eye on news sources. Key signals for long-short game Long signal: long lower shadow candlestick appears in 3370 area, US dollar index (DXY) falls below 105.0 Short signal: rebound fails to break through 3400 integer mark, US bond yield rises above 4.3% Trading strategy suggestion - *Long order opportunity*: 3370-3380 light position to try long, stop loss 3355 (below the previous low), target 3400/3420. - *Short order opportunity*: 3415-3425 to arrange short orders in batches, stop loss 3440, target 3390. 2: Break down - Trigger condition: daily closing price <3365 The callback is upgraded to a deep correction - Target: 3340→ 3300 (psychological barrier + trend line support) - Operation: Chasing short needs to wait for a rebound to around 3400, stop loss 3420. 3: Restart the rise (probability 10%) - Trigger condition: Break through 3440 and stand firm for 1 hour - Possible driving force: Geopolitical conflict escalates/Fed rate cut expectations rise - Target: 3480 (historical high psychological resistance) → 3500 - Operation: After breaking through 3440, step back to 3425 to chase longs, stop loss 3405. Key event risks this week 1. Wednesday: US May CPI data (core CPI expected to be 3.5%) - If data > expectations: expectations of rate hikes rise → bearish for gold - If data < expectations: expectations of rate cuts come earlier → bullish for gold 2. Thursday: Fed interest rate decision + Powell press conference - Pay attention to the dot plot's hints on the number of rate cuts in 2024 (current market pricing is about 2 times) 3. Geopolitical headlines: progress in the Iran nuclear agreement, black swan risks in the French election Position management principles 1. Total risk exposure ≤ 5% of account net value 2. Reduce positions by 50% 3 hours before key events (avoid instantaneous fluctuations in CPI/FOMC) 3. Breakout strategy stop loss setting: 15 points outside the previous high/low to prevent burrs Conclusion: The effectiveness of the current 3373 support needs to be verified by Wednesday's CPI data. It is recommended that the London market operate in the 3370-3420 range and reduce positions before the US market to wait for data guidance. If you hold long positions, 3380 is the last line of defense; if you hold short positions, consider taking profits in batches above 3400. The medium-term bullish trend of gold has not been broken, but the risk aversion premium needs to be digested in the short term. If you need a more detailed entry point analysis or position management to solve your long-term loss problem, please feel free to tell me your trading cycle and risk preference, and I will provide you with a customized strategy.
TVC:GOLD
by Ludvig_Band_King
Continue to try to short gold，It's expected to touch 3355-3345 Gold has broken through 3380 twice, but recovered quickly, indicating that the bulls still have some defensive power. At present, gold has touched 3400 again; it can be seen that the bulls' potential defense is still good, but it is not enough to support the continued rebound of gold in the short term. Obviously, gold is still under pressure in the 3410-3420 area in the short term. If gold cannot break through this resistance area in the short term, gold may continue to maintain a volatile state and continue to seek strong support downward. Only after gold breaks through the 3410-3420 area, it is expected to continue to rise and touch the area near 3450 again. When gold tested the support near 3380 several times during the day and tried to break through this area, after gold failed to break through the 3410-3420 area in the short term, I think gold will be more likely to choose a downward direction, or even continue to test the 3355-3345 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, before breaking through the 3410-3420 area, we should not chase gold too much, and we can try to short gold in this area appropriately.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steffen_Schade