XAUUSD on bullish reversal H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently showing a bullish trend holding the Proper rising wedge pattern on H4,although I'm holding my trade from 3382 which is floating 150+ profits towards our Target
Bullish scanario:
I’ve identified my re-entry zones and plan to buy on every dip, focusing on scalping with buy positions only.
3380-3390 is the optimal buying area.
My target towards the $3430-3435 milestone on intraday.
However, if gold closes the H4 below the $3380 level, i will reassess my outlook towards 3355-3360.
Keep in mind market is on bullish reversal.
#XAUUSD
Xauusdanalysis
Iran seeks peace, Israel strikes – Gold dip, buy opportunity🌍 Iran's peace overtures sent gold prices plummeting to 3382, but Israel is unlikely to accept the olive branch lightly. With no clear signs of de-escalation in the Middle East situation, it's advisable to continue going long at lower levels 📉→📈
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu vows military strikes will continue until Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities are fully dismantled—showing no signs of halting ⚡. While he claims regime change is not the objective, he notes that given the weakness of Iran's leadership, political upheaval could emerge as a collateral outcome of the operations 🌪️
🌍 Currently, only Iran is seeking peace, but Israel won't simply end the war🌍 Currently, only Iran is seeking peace, but Israel won't simply end the war
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 3385 - 3390
🚀 TP 3410 - 3420
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
The international situation is bad. Gold fell back.Information summary:
Latest news: Israeli fighter jets "flew freely" over Tehran, and Iran lost air supremacy over the entire west. Israel's goal turned to a wider range of Iranian military and infrastructure.
Iran's counterattack, Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities are being attacked by Iranian missiles. Both sides are currently suffering heavy losses.
But the price of gold fell back at this time; I think the biggest reason is that this week, the global "super central bank week" is about to hit, the market will usher in a very critical Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and central banks such as Japan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom will also hold monetary policy meetings one after another, and investors are on high alert. Under the influence of multiple conditions, the price of gold has a technical correction.
Technical analysis:
From a technical point of view, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East did not directly push up prices, but instead rushed up and fell back, which shows that the market has great pressure on the upward trend. Therefore, for the upward trend, it is necessary to be relatively conservative.
From the position point of view, the support below is around 3410.
From a trading perspective, most traders are waiting for the release of some data, which will change the overall trend of gold. However, according to the latest analysis of 14 Wall Street analysts, 10 analysts expect prices to continue to rise.
So I guess that this time the gold price pullback is accumulating energy for upward movement. At present, the price has started to rise after falling back to around 3410. The point of this pullback rebound is expected to stop around 3440, and then start to fluctuate at a high level.
If the price breaks through 3440 strongly and stabilizes above this position, the price may hit the upward pressure level of 3455 again.
Middle East Tensions Soar, Bulls Remain DominantBrief Update on Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict:
On June 14, Israeli forces airstruck Iran's Defense Ministry, nuclear facilities, and oil installations—causing a Tehran residential building to collapse and killing 60 civilians. 💥
Iran fired 50 ballistic missiles into Israel, damaging structures in Tel Aviv. A senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader died from injuries; Israel released a hit list of 9 Iranian nuclear scientists. ⚠️
Iran Nuclear Talks Developments:
Iran announced new nuclear safeguards without IAEA notice, warning NPT withdrawal if sanctioned. 🛑
June 15th U.S.-Iran talks canceled. ⏳
The Middle East situation is currently heating up 🌍💥. With the intensifying of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, gold is likely to continue to benefit from the boost of risk-averse sentiment next week and may break through the $3,500 mark 📈. The price of gold will also be affected by the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech during the week 🏛️. In addition, US President Trump will visit Canada to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit from June 15th to 17th, and his speech at that time may also affect the fluctuation of gold prices, which is worthy of attention 🇺🇸🇨🇦
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 3410 - 3415
🚀 TP 3480 - 3490
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
XAU/USD Chart Analysis Following Israel-Iran StrikesXAU/USD Chart Analysis Following Israel-Iran Strikes
In 2025, the price of gold continues to form a long-term upward trend, highlighted by the black line. The red line previously acted as resistance, resulting in the formation of a contracting triangle on the XAU/USD chart – a typical sign of market equilibrium.
However, this red line was breached (as indicated by the arrow) amid news of the exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran. In response, gold price movements have more clearly outlined the rising blue channel, which began to take shape in the second half of May.
Over the weekend, the strikes continued, and on Monday morning, trading opened with a modest bullish gap. This indicates that geopolitical risk concerns are helping to keep gold prices anchored above the red line.
What could happen to the price of gold next?
Much will depend on how the situation in the Middle East develops. Should the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel subside and official statements offer hope for de-escalation, a pullback from the upper boundary of the blue channel is likely.
If such a scenario plays out, technical analysts may focus on the support zone around $3,390–3,400 on the XAU/USD chart, formed by:
→ the psychological level of $3,400;
→ the red line, which previously acted as resistance;
→ the median of the blue channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XAU/USD 16 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous bullish iBOS and subsequent printing of bearish CHoCH, price did not pullback to either M15 supply zone, or discount of internal 50% EQ, therefore, I will not mark current iBOS but will mark it in red. The reason I am not classifying this as an iBOS is, due to relative price action, the internal range would be too narrow.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD: Escalating Middle East Tensions Keep Bulls in ChargeThe chart shows that the gold price has successfully broken through the key resistance level of $3,400 and is currently fluctuating between $3,420 and $3,450, indicating that bullish forces are dominant in the short term. The $3,450 level has become a new resistance. If broken, it will attract more trend - chasing funds and drive the price higher; the $3,400 level has turned into strong support, and a breakdown could trigger panic selling.
The K - line chart shows strong bullish momentum recently, but the lengthening upper shadows suggest that bearish forces are also stepping in at high levels, intensifying the tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement with a golden cross formed, but the significant deviation of the price from the moving averages indicates a need for a correction to repair technical indicators.
In the short term, geopolitical conflicts may continue to support the upward movement of gold prices. However, the situation in the Middle East, U.S. economic data, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are all key variables. If the conflicts ease or the Fed turns hawkish, the gold price will face correction pressures.
XAUUSD
buy@3410-3420
tp:3440-3450
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Tend to short gold, it may still retrace to 3360-3350 areaAt present, gold as a whole is still fluctuating in the 3395-3365 area. In the short term, both long and short sides are not willing to break through. They may be waiting for the guidance of the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's monetary policy press conference. However, from the current oscillation structure, because the high point of gold rebound and the low point of retracement are gradually moving downward, the center of gravity of the candlestick chart is shifting downward, and the weight of gold shorts is slightly higher.
From the current structure, 3395-3405 has become a new round of pressure area. Gold has been unable to break through for a long time, and has tried to accelerate downward many times during the retracement process. Although it can stabilize above 3375-3365, it may be easier to break through below after several tests. Once the 3375-3365 area is broken, gold may even continue to move to the 3360-3350 area.
Therefore, within the 3395-3365 oscillation range, we can temporarily maintain the trading rhythm of selling high and buying low in the short term, while we must pay attention to the breakthrough of gold. Once gold breaks through, the trend may be continued, and we need to follow the trend to execute transactions!
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
As previously stated, a ceasefire negotiation between Iran and Israel is not easy, and with Trump's remarks, risk aversion remains strong. From a 4-hour analysis perspective, gold's key support below continues to focus on the 3370–3360 level, while short-term resistance above pays attention to the 3410–3420 level. In terms of operations, it is temporarily mainly long within the range, and short positions can be taken if the high-resistance area is not broken.
Trading Strategy:
buy@3360-3370
TP:3390-3400
sell@3420-3410
TP:3390-3380
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Key Event Today – FOMC Interest Rate DecisionAs risk-off sentiment cools, gold bulls failed to take control yesterday, resulting in a stalemate with the bears.
From the 4H chart perspective, bearish momentum currently appears stronger,
though bulls are not giving up easily.
Currently, price is rebounding off the 4H MA60 support,
with immediate resistance from the MA20 around 3405.
As time progresses, this resistance is likely to shift lower,
so for now, we’ll treat $3400 as the primary reference point.
For bulls to regain dominance,
they must hold steady above 3405,
and more importantly, protect the support at 3386–3378 during any pullback.
🔔 Key Event Today – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Today’s trading will also be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision,
which, based on current expectations, is likely to weigh heavily on bullish sentiment.
📌 Strategy for Today:
Main Bias: Sell the rebound
Secondary Approach: Buy on pullbacks if strong support levels hold
Key support levels to monitor:
⚠️ 3382 zone (minor support)
🔻 Most critical: 4H MA60 around 3366
Stay cautious during the FOMC announcement window, and remember — in volatile markets, reacting with discipline is more important than predicting perfectly.
Trump's comments boost risk aversionThe 4-hour K-line pattern of gold shows that the upward trend remains intact. The focus of the day is on the strong support range of 3360-3365 (technical resonance with the 5-week moving average). Before the price effectively breaks below the support band, the bulls still have upward momentum, otherwise the trend may reverse. The 3365-3420 range is maintained for the day. In the evening, the gold operation strategy, Mr. Weng, suggested that the callback to the 3370-3375 area should be arranged in batches. If the support of 3360-3365 is broken, add positions to go long.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to go long at the callback to 3370-3375 for gold now, and add positions to go long at the support level of 3360-3365, with a stop loss at 3352 and a target of 3380-3420.
3365-3400: The Battle Zone for Bulls and BearsCurrently, gold trades at 3386 📊. Key levels: resistance 3400, support 3365 🛑. Watch real-time news (Fed speeches 🎙️, Middle East geopolitics 🌍), which can shift bull-bear balance 🐂🐻.
Long setup: If price drops to 3365-3370 with bullish news (Fed dovish 🕊️, geopolitical tension 🔥) and bullish K-lines (long lower shadows 🕯️), go long 💰. Stop below 3360 🛑. Target 3390-3400 🎯. Take partial profits if news cools 📦.
Short setup: If price rebounds to 3400-3405 with bearish news (strong US data 📈, geopolitical ease 🧘) and bearish K-lines (long upper shadows 🕯️), go short 💰. Stop above 3410 🛑. Initial target 3380-3375 🎯. Extend to support if bearish news persists 🔍.
Gold Trading Strategies
sell@ 3400-3405
tp:3380-3370
buy@3365-3370
tp:3390-3400
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Gold falls back and then risesThe recent market has been up and down, and the long and short positions have been frequently switched. Many investment friends are caught off guard or don’t know where to start. As soon as they buy, the price drops, and when they exit, the price rises. In fact, this is the situation that many novice friends will encounter. Here I tell you that when trading, first of all, do not trade frequently. Secondly, you need to have a precise control of the market and stick to your own trading system.
Analysis of gold trend:
Today, the strength of gold is very weak. It is just a wave of highs. It quickly fell below the 3400 mark. Keeping above the key point of 3400, gold continues to be bullish. Now after falling below 3400, the short-term has gone out of the small-level top, and the market is no longer so strong. For our short-term operations, the short-term correction of gold prices focuses on the daily cycle MA5 support and the weekly MA5 support to go long. Pay attention to the 3403-3408 resistance card short on the rebound. You can follow the short, but it can only be short-term! Although gold has fallen below 3400, the short-term direction has changed, but the general direction has not changed. It is still bullish. In the future, we still have the opportunity to look at the high point of 3500, but we have to wait for the bottom to stabilize. Now we can only follow the trend. We will do what the market does. We will go short in the rebound in the next two days!
From a technical perspective, the current 4-hour MACD high dead cross with large volume, and the smart indicator STO is running oversold, which represents the 4-hour oscillation trend. The current 4-hour Bollinger Band three-track narrowing also represents the range compression. The current 4-hour upper pressure is located at the adhesion point of the middle track and the moving average MA10 at 3404-3409, and the corresponding support is the 3380-3363 line near the moving average MA30 and MA10. From the current 4-hour perspective, if the price is to fall directly, the rebound will not exceed the 3420-3422.5 line. The current 1-hour MACD dead cross of gold is shrinking and sticking, and the smart indicator STO is running downward, indicating that the hourly line continues to oscillate weakly. What we need to pay attention to now is the adhesion and suppression of the upper moving average MA60 and MA30 corresponding to the 3412 line. Pay attention to the resistance of 3403 in the short term. Today's short-term operation of gold recommends rebound shorting as the main, and callback long as the auxiliary, and pay attention to the support of 3380-3370 in the short term.
Gold operation strategy: It is recommended to go short near 3410-12, stop loss at 3420, target at 3390-3380, break at 3370;
Gold is in a medium-term consolidation,The momentum of gold is weak. In the early trading, there was only a wave of upward momentum, while in the evening, it quickly fell below the 3,400 key level. As previously mentioned, if gold holds above the key level of 3,400, the bullish trend will continue. However, after breaking below 3,400, a small - level top has been formed in the short term, and the market is no longer so strong.
For our short - term operations, in the short - term correction, the gold price should focus on the support of the MA5 in the daily cycle and the MA5 in the weekly cycle for long positions. On the pullback, pay attention to the resistance level of 3,403 - 3,408 for short positions. A rebound can be followed by shorting, but it should be noted that it can only be a short - term operation!
Although gold has broken below 3,400 and the short - term direction has changed, the long - term direction has not changed. It is still in a bullish trend, and we still have the opportunity to see the high of 3,500 in the future. However, we need to wait until the bottom stabilizes. At present, we can only follow the trend and do what the market does. Short on the rebound in the next two days!
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Trading Strategy:
sell@3410-3420
TP:3380-3390
Gold precision operation ideas!News interpretation: This week, the Fed's policy meeting, retail sales data and geopolitical situation will become the three core factors affecting the global market. The Fed may keep interest rates unchanged, but its economic forecasts and statements on future rate cuts will directly affect the market's judgment on the trend of the US dollar. If the Fed releases dovish signals, the US dollar may be under pressure in the short term, but geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand may provide support for it. On the contrary, if the Fed emphasizes inflation risks, the US dollar may strengthen, but this may put pressure on global risk assets. In the long run, the fate of the US dollar is still closely related to the Fed's balancing act. Under the multiple challenges of inflation, employment and geopolitics, every step of the Fed will affect the nerves of the global market.
Analysis of gold trend: Gold closed strong and full last week, and after the previous retracement, it has accumulated momentum. The weekly chart failed to further lose the defense of the 10-week line, the lifeline of the bulls. After the consolidation, it regained momentum and closed above 3,400, breaking the previous secondary high. It destroyed the pattern of further adjustment, and the weekly line is bullish. From the weekly level, the gold price is supported by the support level of 3258-60. From the mid-term perspective, it is still in the mid-term bull market. The price will be further under pressure only if it breaks the weekly support.
Operation suggestion: The early high opening and the fallback continued. There was a signal of stopping the decline at the beginning of the European session. The current gold price is trading around 3415. There are two predictions for the next trend: the first is that 3410 stabilizes and rises to the gap position in the early session and then falls. The other is that it falls after crossing the gap position, and then rises after the second test around 3410. The overall idea is to rebound upward in the European session, and then confirm the operation idea of the US session based on the rebound strength of the European session.
GOLD Intraday Chart for 17 June 25Hello Traders,
as you can see that market was going down very badly and it's actually stuck below 3400 Psychological Level
Definitely we are sellers now as long as market sustain below 3400 Psychological Level
below 3380 level GOLD will move towards 3360 or even 3350
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Gold’s Game of Traps: Is the Dip a Setup for a Bigger Move? Gold’s Game of Traps: Is the Dip a Setup for a Bigger Move?
After an aggressive rally fueled by geopolitical FOMO headlines, gold (XAUUSD) saw a sudden pullback — but what looked like weakness might actually be a setup for smart accumulation. The market narrative is shifting, and price action is sending important signals...
🌍 Global Drivers Behind the Volatility
Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, prompting global safe haven flows. Evacuation warnings and nuclear deal pressure add more uncertainty to the mix.
Despite bullish news, gold failed to hold its highs — a potential bull trap as institutional players took advantage of retail FOMO to offload.
Big capital may now be rotating from gold into other sectors like energy (oil) and discounted equity assets.
📉 Price Action & Technical Outlook (M30–H1)
After topping around 3442–3440, price snapped back into the mid-range — a sign of liquidity hunting rather than a full reversal.
The EMAs (13/34/89/200) on the M15–M30 timeframes are showing early signs of bearish crossover, hinting at further short-term weakness.
Below current price sits a clean Fair Value Gap (FVG) that could act as a magnet — aligning with a high-probability buy zone.
🎯 Trading Playbook
✅ BUY Setup – "Smart Money Entry Zone"
Buy Zone: 3342 – 3344
Stop Loss: 3338
Take Profit Targets:
→ 3348 → 3352 → 3356 → 3360
→ 3364 → 3368 → 3372 → 3380+
💡 Look for price to tap into the FVG and form a base with bullish confirmation (engulfing candle, divergence, or rising volume) before entering.
❌ SELL Setup – "Fade the Overhead Resistance"
Sell Zone: 3440 – 3442
Stop Loss: 3446
Take Profit Targets:
→ 3436 → 3432 → 3428 → 3424
→ 3420 → 3415 → 3410
⚠️ Only short on a strong rejection or bearish engulfing candle near the resistance — do not short blindly.
🧠 Market Psychology Insight
The initial Asian-session rally was likely a news-driven liquidity event.
Institutions appear to be rotating capital, using emotional retail entries as exit liquidity.
Current market conditions suggest a shakeout before a longer-term bullish move.
📌 Final Note
Don’t chase price. Let it come to your zones. This market is being driven by geopolitical narrative and smart money behavior, not just technicals alone.
✅ Stay patient.
📊 Trade with logic.
🧘♂️ Let others FOMO — you focus on levels and confirmation.
👉 Follow for real-time London session updates and reaction-based entries.
The situation in the Middle East is in turmoil again! (Exclusive
(Fifth day of Iran-Israel conflict: Trump leaves G7 ahead of schedule, Middle East situation stirs up waves again!)👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇
The conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to the fifth day, the war has not subsided, and the situation is becoming increasingly tense. Due to the sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East, US President Trump left the G7 summit held in Canada one day ahead of schedule, which aroused widespread concern in the international community. On Tuesday (June 17), Trump strongly warned Iran through social media, demanding that it sign the nuclear agreement immediately and calling on Tehran residents to evacuate. At the same time, both Iran and Israel reported heavy casualties and infrastructure damage, ceasefire negotiations were deadlocked, and uncertainty in the global market was further exacerbated.
Iran and Israel: The fifth day of tit-for-tat👇
Explosions over Tehran
On Tuesday morning, violent explosions were heard over the Iranian capital of Tehran, and the air defense system was operating at full capacity, trying to intercept incoming missiles. According to Iranian media Asriran, Natanz, the site of an important nuclear facility about 320 kilometers from Tehran, also activated high-alert air defense measures. Iranian officials revealed that 224 people have died in Iran in the past five days, most of whom are innocent civilians. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi issued a statement through the social platform X, accusing Israel of "aggression" and warning that Iran will continue to respond strongly if Israel does not stop its military operations.
Midnight alarm in Tel Aviv
At the same time, Tel Aviv, Israel's financial center, also sounded an air raid alarm after midnight, and explosions resounded through the night sky. It is reported that this is another round of missile attacks launched by Iran against Israel. According to official Israeli statistics, the conflict has killed 24 civilians and nearly 3,000 people have been forced to evacuate due to security threats. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that Iran's attack has had a serious impact on the lives of Israeli people and the government is doing its best to deal with it.
The shadow of nuclear facilities
Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, as the focus of global attention, has once again become a sensitive target in the conflict. Although Iran stressed that its air defense system successfully protected key facilities, the tension in the region has undoubtedly exacerbated international concerns about Iran's nuclear program. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated on Monday that Israel will eliminate the threat posed by Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs at all costs. He also hinted that if the goal can be achieved through diplomatic means, Israel is willing to give Iran a "60-day opportunity."
Trump's tough stance and early departure from the G7 summit
"Iran must sign a deal!"
Trump published a fierce post on Truth Social, a social media platform he founded, calling Iran's refusal to sign an agreement to curb the development of nuclear weapons a "shame" and a "waste of life." He repeatedly stressed that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and urged residents of Tehran to evacuate immediately. Trump's remarks sparked controversy, with some seeing them as a direct threat to Iran and others interpreting them as him paving the way for possible military action.
Interruption of the G7 Summit
The White House confirmed that Trump decided to leave the G7 summit one day early on Monday night due to the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East and go to Washington to hold a National Security Council meeting. French President Macron expressed support for this, believing that Trump's decision created conditions for Israel and Iran to accept the ceasefire agreement proposed by the United States. However, Trump's early departure also caused concerns among some allies, who feared that the United States' leadership in global affairs might be affected.
U.S. official clarification
In response to speculation that the United States might directly participate in military action against Iran, a White House aide explicitly denied the claim. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in an interview with Fox News that Trump's primary goal is still to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, while emphasizing that the United States will resolutely defend its assets and interests in the Middle East.
The tortuous prospects of ceasefire negotiations
Iran's compromise signal
According to Reuters, citing sources, Iran has sent a message to Trump through Middle Eastern countries such as Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, asking him to put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to promote an immediate ceasefire. In return, Iran promised to show greater flexibility in nuclear negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said at X that if Trump really wants to end the conflict through diplomatic means, the next action will be crucial. He also warned that if Israel continues to "aggress", Iran's response will be unrelenting.
Israel's tough stance
Netanyahu reiterated that Israel will not compromise on Iran's nuclear threats and missile programs. He said that military action is the most direct means at present, but it has not completely closed the door to diplomatic negotiations. However, the voices of hardliners in Israel are growing louder and louder, believing that any compromise may weaken national security.
Summary: The complex game of the situation in the Middle East
The fifth day of conflict between Iran and Israel has not only exacerbated the turmoil in the Middle East, but also focused global attention on this sensitive area again. Trump's tough stance, early departure from the G7 summit, and the difficult progress of ceasefire negotiations highlight the complexity and uncertainty of the current situation. The compromise signals released by Iran through third countries are in sharp contrast to Israel's tough stance, and the future direction is still full of variables.
Analysis of the impact on gold prices
The continued tension in the Middle East usually pushes up the demand for safe-haven assets. As a traditional safe-haven asset, the price of gold is often boosted in such geopolitical crises. The escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel may lead to increased investor concerns about the stability of the global economy, further pushing up gold prices. However, if the ceasefire negotiations make a breakthrough or Trump's diplomatic efforts ease tensions, gold prices may face correction pressure. In the short term, market sentiment will dominate gold price fluctuations, and investors need to pay close attention to the dynamics of the conflict and related diplomatic progress. FOREXCOM:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD
Hormuz oil tanker catches fire, is this Iran’s “shadow war”?Three ships or tankers caught fire in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz.
The burning ships were reportedly located at the Khor Fakkan anchorage near Fujairah on the coast of the United Arab Emirates.
The incident raised concerns about a possible repeat of the 2019 tanker attacks, which were widely believed to be carried out by Iran as tensions in the Middle East increased under Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign.
It is worth noting that the current incident took place at the same location as the previous attack.
Forexlive reported that one of the ships currently on fire may be the "ADALYNN". The specific cause of the fire is still unclear. ADALYNN is a crude oil tanker. There are unconfirmed reports that the fire outside the Strait of Hormuz was caused by a collision between two tankers (ADALYNN and Front Eagle).
After the above news came out, international oil prices rose. However, later US media reported that Trump's team proposed to negotiate with Iran this week, and crude oil and gold prices fell accordingly.
It is worth mentioning that on Monday, the UK Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO) said it had received multiple reports of increased electronic interference to ships in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by automatic identification system monitoring.
Local naval forces also said on Monday that electronic interference to merchant ship navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf region has surged in recent days, affecting ships passing through the area.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) of the US-led multinational maritime joint force said in a notice: "JMIC continues to receive reports of electronic interference from the vicinity of Bandar Abbas (Iran), the Strait of Hormuz and several other areas in the Arabian Gulf. These interferences are increasing throughout the region and have a significant impact on the Gulf region itself. This interference is affecting the ability of ships to accurately transmit position data through the automatic identification system, causing operational and navigation challenges to maritime traffic."
There is a straightforward way to think about the financial risks of the current Middle East conflict.
According to this simple view, escalating hostilities between Iran and Israel will only have a major impact on investors if Tehran closes the Strait of Hormuz, blocking a key flow of global oil shipments and causing prices to soar.
There is some truth to this theory, but it underestimates the possibility that other things could go wrong.
As the conflict enters its fifth day, it is clear that cooler heads on both sides are having trouble prevailing. In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that regime change in Tehran could be the result of an Israeli military attack on the country. This would make Iran's political leaders feel insecure.
Conventional wisdom holds that escalation would include closing the Strait of Hormuz. But that doesn't mean there isn't a real danger that Tehran's Revolutionary Guards or Yemen's Iran-allied Houthi rebels could set their sights on trade routes through the Gulf.
Iran and its proxies have long been linked to disrupting shipping in the region.
In 2019, two Saudi oil tankers were sabotaged off the coast of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. Tehran denied the mine attack, but the United States said it was "almost certainly" from Iran. Hundreds of international ships were targeted as far back as the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
The United States, Europe and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for the 2019 Abqaiq drone strike, which briefly knocked out half of Saudi oil production, but Iran again denied involvement. The Houthis began launching repeated attacks in the Red Sea last year, prompting most global shipping to detour around Africa.
If Iran and its allies go down that path again, the Bahrain-based U.S. Fifth Fleet would likely intervene to protect maritime trade. But it also raises the possibility that it would be formally drawn into the current confrontation.
Investors who are currently self-soothing have plenty of reasons to feel reassured. They argue that while Israel has expanded its operations from striking Iranian commanders to energy infrastructure, it has avoided Iran's key Kharg Island terminal, a gateway for 90% of its oil exports.
They also see no signs that Tehran will interfere with ships in the Hormuz Corridor. Moreover, oil exports bring in about $50 billion a year for Tehran's battered economy, suggesting that Tehran has good reasons to avoid Hormuz. On top of that, various flashpoints between Iran and Israel in recent years have generally ended quickly.
These reasons explain why Brent crude oil prices continue to hover around $75 a barrel, with relatively small gains since Israel launched its first attack last week.
But Reuters columnist George Hay said that investors who fail to consider the risks mentioned above may simply not have learned the right lessons from history. FOREXCOM:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD FOREXCOM:USOIL PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FX:USOIL
Sell-Side Breakdown for XAUUSD (Gold) on the 15-Minute chart🔻 Sell-Side Analysis – June 17, 2025
🧠 Context & Market Structure
Price rejected major resistance around 3415–3448 zone.
SL Hunt zone marked at mid-levels around 3400–3408, showing manipulation.
Current price: ~3397, after bouncing from the Daily Flip (support) at ~3388.
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📉 Bearish Case Setup
1. Distribution Pattern at the Top
The upper resistance zone has been tested multiple times without a breakout.
Clear sign of exhaustion, with possible Smart Money Distribution.
2. Lower High Formation
After breaking the short-term demand (green box), price formed a lower high near 3404–3405.
Bearish market structure forming.
3. Consolidation Breakdown Likely
Price is currently inside a small consolidation box (3393–3402).
Failure to break and hold above 3402 = bearish continuation.
Look for breakdown retests below 3393 to confirm.
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🔻 Sell Zones
Zone 1: 3402–3405 = good supply/retest area for shorts.
Zone 2: 3410–3413 = high-risk re-entry (SL hunt zone retest).
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🎯 Targets for Shorts
TP1: 3388 (Daily Flip)
TP2: 3373–3375 (next volume node and support block)
TP3: 3365 (if full breakdown with momentum)
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🛡️ Invalidation
Clean break and hold above 3405–3410 invalidates bearish bias short term.
If price reclaims SL Hunt zone and flips it, bullish continuation is likely.
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🔍 Volume + Order Flow Notes
Volume spikes around support zone hint at buyer absorption, not dominance.
Bullish bounce lacked follow-through = potential sign of weak buyers.
GOLD- XAU-USD Hello Traders! The GOLD MARKET is on fire! 🚨🔥
XAUUSD has officially broken above the key resistance zone — this is not just a move, this could be the start of something BIG! 💥📈
Is this the golden breakout we’ve been waiting for, or just a short-lived spike?
Are we heading toward the next major target, or is a pullback on the horizon? 🎯🔍
Your insights matter — comment below with your analysis and let’s decode this golden move together!
Stay sharp, stay golden! ⚔️💰
#XAUUSD #GoldBreakout #ForexTraders #MarketMomentum #GoldAnalysis #TradeSmart
Middle East tensions ease? Prices fall?Information summary:
Iran sent a peace signal to the United States and Israel through Arab intermediaries - requiring the United States not to carry out air strikes as a prerequisite for restarting nuclear negotiations, and emphasizing to Israel that controlling violence is in the common interest.
Under the influence of this news, gold turned downward several times, reaching a low of $3,383, and then rebounded slightly. The current price fluctuates slightly above $3,400.
Market analysis:
Technical analysis shows that the current price has broken through the key resistance area of the previous high and the middle track resonance. The 4-hour chart continues to be bullish under the support of the middle track, and the short-term sideways adjustment is a normal accumulation of upward momentum.
If the integer mark of $3,400 can be maintained, the hourly chart is expected to continue the upward trend after a narrow range of fluctuations, and accelerate to a new high after breaking through; on the contrary, if this position is lost, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of trend reversal.
The geopolitical crisis continues to ferment, injecting medium- and long-term safe-haven demand into gold. Combined with the strong closing pattern at the weekly level, the core operation strategy should be to buy on the pullback, focusing on the 3400-line long-short dividing line. At present, the price can be arranged for long orders, and the target will be the previous high point after breaking through 3415, but the risk of falling back from the high point must be strictly prevented.
Good luck to everyone in the new week.